As disappointed as I was in last year’s opening weekend of March Madness, this one is exceeding all expectations. Putting aside the fact that my bracket now resembles Kabul after the Taliban rolled through in ‘96 – a map of ordered failure – and that Texas received a much-needed mercy killing, if you’re a basketball purist, you can’t help but be pleased at the quality of play this weekend. It had everything: dominance, upstarts, Cinderellas, clutchitude, chokiness, and fascinating and obscure mascots.

Some observations:

Guard play continues to cover team blemishes like the make-up counter at Sephora and it’s crystal clear that the skilled guard who can dribble, shoot, and make good decisons but lacks “NBA measurables” is currently the most undervalued commodity in college basketball. Who wants a 6-1 guy that doesn’t immediately project to the Clippers if all he can do is nail open threes like lay-ups, possesses a recognizable basketball IQ, and has a good handle?

Second, if you can’t find skill in the post, have strength, aggression, and effort. The 6-6 260 pound power forward who knows his role and will stick to his knitting frustrates more talented thoroughbreds at the college level in halfcourt. Always has. Always will.

Third, possessing an actual system – whatever it may be – is preferable to rolling out a bunch of athletes and hoping that they cohere. Watching the Wake Forest-Texas game was a painful reminder of that fact, particularly when viewed in contrast Butler/Murray State. But we have lottery players, dood!

Fourth, the mid-range game is dead. Mid-majors have learned that they need only defend the three point line and have enough team defense to step in and take the charge on the drive. Rinse, wash, repeat.

If you can sink an open 12-15 footer consistently off of the bounce, you’re in like Flint. Where have you gone, Andrew Toney and Joe Dumars?

Northern Iowa’s upset of Kansas – the best combination of the observations above – illustrates why basketball is a cool sport. What other game allows fundamental play to equalize pure athleticism more powerfully? Line up the rosters for Northern Iowa and Kansas and have them run a bunch of shooting and dribbling drills, test verticals and speed, and then do a draft. Seven or eight Jayhawks will be selected before the first UNI player.

Never mind that they’re whiter than Greg Gumbel’s squash game – UNI can ball.

So how did KU lose?

Collins and Taylor combining to go 4 of 21 from the field is a good place to start. When Sherron’s shot won’t fall, he won’t settle for being a creator. That’s a problem for a senior point guard.

From the UNI perspective, the recipe is a familiar one and it smacks us upside the head every time Greece routs a Dream Team. Take a bunch of shooters, mix in some hipster beef – UNI’s rotation at 4/5 weighs 245, 255, 255, 280, respectively (including a heavily tattooed lycanthrope Irish wookie named Lucas O’Rear) – that will block out and screen like their lives depend on it, take care of the basketball, make great decisions, and refuse to play the game that And 1 videos tell you that basketball is.

Having an Ali Farokhmanesh with the onions to sink a cold-blooded three pointer doesn’t hurt either.

That game also demonstrated why officiating is crucial. If the Jayhawks had been afforded a Dukeian deference from the zebras, they would have cruised by 10+. The fact that you can still get an honest game of basketball called at the collegiate level is reason enough that it’s a better game than the NBA.

St. Marys over Villanova might have been the least surprising upset to date. It’s pretty clear that Scottie Reynolds checked out weeks ago and his disinterest in playing his last games as a Wildcat is as evident as the fact that he as at least one member in his entourage whose only job being to repeat what Scottie says preceded by the words “My man Scottie say…” followed by ingratiating high fives all around.

Scottie’s 2 game NCAA tournament statline against 15 seed Robert Morris and 10 seed St Marys?

4 of 26 from the field.

For a smooth 15.4% shooting percentage.

He also had two fouls total in two NCAA tournament games. Thanks for the hard-nosed D, team leader. I’ll follow your career in Ukraine with interest.

Continuing on the theme of the Big East’s semi-fraudulence, Ohio’s massacre of Georgetown was a shock to me, though apparently not to some Hoya supporters. Perhaps they could have let me know before I put Georgetown in my Elite 8? The Athenians shot 58% from the field and dropped 97 points on the Hoyas and though Greg Monroe managed 19 points and 13 rebounds…that was paired with 7 TOs. There’s a message there, NBA GMs.

Watching Georgetown’s weirdly unassertive body language and disinterest in defending forced my own Jesuitical inquiry – why are a bunch of guys who play their summer ball on the open run courts in DC such total pussies? Is Anacostia now completely gentrified?

Baylor is learning to win on a big stage. Stop them soon or go ahead and book them in Indy. I love their guard play and the Dunn/Carter combo certainly gets the attention it deserves, but Udoh is what makes them go. Vasherized likens Udoh to a prawn from District 9 and that’s a solid comparison, not just because Scott Drew feeds him cat food and keeps him in a dorm shanty. Old Dominion focused on Udoh after he massacred Sam Houston in the opening round and Josh Lomers made them pay on the weakside with the easiest 14 points and 8 rebounds I’ve ever seen.

Josh Lomers made them pay is a sentence written as frequently as Secretary of State Kim Kardashian found common ground with the Chinese on the subject of Iranian nuclear proliferation so enjoy Halley’s Comet when it burns through the sky.

If Kentucky handles Wiscy and their trip-to-the-dentist style of play, they likely take on West Virginia for the right to make reservations in Indy. Epic basketball. Epic feudin’. There will be skirmishing and musketry on the Kantuck-Wes’ Virginny border – count on it.

Now…Swayze!

I could prattle on – what were your takeaways from the weekend?

Feel free to spare me any references to Texas basketball – that dead horse is beaten.

The key delineation to make is that Fading Las Vegas is where Kevin is betting his children’s college tuition on a game by game and week-by-week basis whereas March to March is a breakdown of pure basketball. One informs thought, the other action.

From a Big12-o-centric betting perspective, take a look here. Looks like K-State, Baylor, Utah State, Oklahoma St are all considered bettable.

Here are the current betting lines from various books.

I like Siena +4.5 over Purdue and Baylor -11 over Sam Houston State. Baylor has been a spread-covering stalwart all year and Siena appears as underseeded as Purdue is overseeded. Beyond that, I’d also like to pull the trigger on Richmond -2 over St. Marys as I have the Spiders in the Sweet 16. The Georgetown and Ohio over (138) also makes sense to me. When Georgetown is clicking, they can easily play in 80s.

If you just like watching good basketball and don’t want to risk broken legs from Jimmy The Ear or Fat Tony Canole, Burnt Orange Nation has your coverage maps.

Send one to Chykie Brown.

So who are the surprise teams on opening day?

I like:

BYU
Siena
UTEP

…as my opening round double digit seed winners.

You?

By the end of the year, markets are fairly efficient as most teams are valued correctly. That’s a betting disadvantage. My personal feeling is that there’s still value in the mid-majors and 2nd tier teams from elite conferences (Baylor, Georgetown).

Only squares and fools parlay or tease NCAA tournament games. According to Millman, if he asked a respected sharp for a good parlay in March Madness, the guy would never answer his call again. Any meaningful parlay in March Madness takes too much risk. You’ll always lose Game 3 out of 3. He could not overstate this point. Bet game to game or bet overall conference wins.

Inter-game gambling is the new thing. You can essentially bet every possession and bet a living line as it fluctuates throughout the game. Kind of a cool way to hedge and play the middle. This represents a phenomenal opportunity if a team you love goes down 15 or 18 early because the other team is, say, hitting 3s, rather than dominating via defensive pressure – you know your guys will rally. Bet accordingly.

This year all of the pro gamblers are pissed off that the NCAA has matched all of their Bet On teams (teams with higher value than is perceived) that they expect to be undervalued against each other early. Specifically, they’re irritated that A&M plays Utah State, Richmond plays St. Marys, UTEP plays Butler, Cornell plays Temple and, in the second round Wisconsin is likely to play either Cornell or Temple. Vegas types believe that Wisconsin & Temple particularly are Elite 8 capable and that Cornell is Sweet 16 quality. Putting them in a three team elimination early has the sharps irritated at the perceived easy money they’ve lost.

Similarly, they’re irritated that Texas is matched against Wake and that Missouri is matched against Clemson – as these are all Bet Against (underperform relative to perceived value) teams. They’d have preferred Richmond vs. Texas/Missouri, UTEP vs. Wake/Clemson match ups so that they can make some easy dough betting against the public.

They’re similarly conflicted by Duke’s regional draw. Vegas sharps hate Duke and Coach K and have consistently bet against him in the tournament for the last 8 years or so. Duke’s style of play has too high of a beta and they can’t be counted on if the 3s aren’t dropping. However, they are a public team – meaning the average uninformed gambler loves Duke, so it’s important to watch their lines for inefficiencies if they get past their first couple of opponents. The public can sweep in and queer their lines.

Everybody loves Baylor & Marquette. Baylor is good against the spread and has been all year. Marquette is incredibly consistent and cut their teeth in a brutal Big East. Wise guys love teams like Temple, Wiscy, Marquette because they’re so predictable and they can drag you into a half-court game. Under pressure, a team unaccustomed to that under the bright lights and on a neutral floor will wilt.

Wise guys fear Louisville because they can lose by 20 in round 1 or go to the Elite Eight. They can screw your bracket.

We have our own resident gambler in Kevin Berger and his bracket breakdowns are well worth your time:

East

No disagreements here. And Kevin independently identified Wiscy and Temple as the X-factors, which impresses me since I know he didn’t hear the podcast. The problem is that you have to pick one of them. Is anyone else concerned that Bob Huggins has a tournament history of pissing away high seeds?

West

Wow. Ballsy. If the Syracuse big man stays hurt, 12 seed UTEP almost makes the Final 4 after upsetting Syracuse. However, if Syracuse is healthy, I guess they play K-State for the right to advance? The problem is that this has no predictive value since none of us know the injury status.

The 3 and 4 seeds in this bracket are particularly weak. So if you’re a 1 or 2, you simply need to play up to your potential for at least the Elite 8. Of course some of the lower seeds (BYU, UTEP) are notably strong so upset potential here is rife.

Midwest

What the Committee did to Kansas is obscene. Ultimately, I think the Jayhawks fight through this bracket anyway. I don’t have Ohio State upsetting Kansas as Kevin does because Georgetown and Greg Monroe take them down a round previous. Still, this region will feature incredible basketball and a bunch of games that will be very near things.

South

Kevin likes Baylor. So do I. I’m having trouble pulling the trigger. Duke and Nova scream out to be beaten.

If you want to pull the trigger on some winning bets: BANG!.

I also found the write-ups at Rush The Court very informative. You’ll find solid Thursday/Friday breakdowns as well.

We’ll find out on March 18th. Meet Wake Forest.

This game will be watching drunks trying to brawl. Neither belligerent will land a punch, and it will be viewed by both fanbases with equal measures of horror, embarassment, and amusement. You’ll know the victor by whoever manages to not contract hepatitis. It’s like being the producer of Bum Fights. That this game is being played in New Orleans is no coincidence.

Wake Forest (19-10, 9-7 in ACC) has lost 5 of their last 6 games, none of those five losses against ranked teams. Their last game was an uninspired 83-62 quit job against an awful and injured Miami team in the ACC tournament. If there’s any team in the country in as bad a funk as Texas, it may be the Demon Deacons. They’re not road warriors either – they sport a 6-8 record neutral/road while they’re 13-2 in Tobacco country.

My personal theory is that their players take advantage of North Carolina’s liberal public smoking policy by smoking Winstons during the game and the nicotine fuels their defensive energy. And they jones on the road. I will relent on this viewpoint if I can walk into a convenience store there and not see a woman with a four inch ash on her cig stuck in the side of her mouth while she rings up my Mello Yello and Mike & Ikes, guaranteeing that I smell the rest of the day like Sean Penn’s ashtray.

Matching us together demonstrates the perverse sense of humor of the tournament committee. Throw two drowning men in a tank and see who can dunk the other until such time as you can grip the other corpse like a floatie and begin paddling to shore. Then Kentucky runs you over with a powerboat.

So, some Wake Takes:

Wake Forest can’t shoot.

They’re shooting 43.8% from the field, and an execrable 31.3% from the 3 point line. They have one player shooting over 50% from the field on the entire team. They’re not as horrendous as Texas on the FT line, but at 66% they’re not appearing on any Rick Barry instructional videos.

Wake doesn’t take great care of the ball. 15.2 turnovers per game isn’t getting it done.

Ken Pomeroy has his own system rating offensive and defensive efficiency. Texas is ranked 17th in PYTHAG winning percentage; Wake Forest is 50th. PYTHAG winning percentage is either an aggregation demonstrating your total team quality or it’s a percentage expressing how often your team could beat Pythagoras at an And 1 tournament. Obviously, I don’t need to point out that our rankings are skewed by the fact that we were a basketball team for half of the year and then spent the second half focusing on curling.

Here’s a Peter Bean Pomeroy breakdown.

In any event, your takeway is that Wake sucks it. As hard as we do, you ask? I don’t know. That’s why we have these clashes of Titans.

Wake’s best player is freshman Al-Farouq Aminu, Peace Be Unto Him. He’s a long athletic forward who gets you a double-double every night and has an uncanny ability to identify the direction of Mecca in any arena. He can handle, can nail a 15 footer, he’s 6-9 210 with a 7 footers wingspan, and he uses his agility and length to turn you over on defense (44 blocks, 43 steals in 29 games). We have no one that can remotely match up with him. See Quincy Acy.

Call him Ishmael. Ishmael Smith. He’s the senior PG and he’s Wake’s 2nd leading scorer (13.3ppg) behind Aminu, Peace Be Upon Him. He’s a defender and he creates (6.0 apg). Hopefully, he has a deep fear of wizened garden gnomes. Travelocity, holla.

They have a 3 point specialist freshman Ari Stewart who comes off of the bench, averaging double figures. Despite being 6-7, he has 7 assists on the entire year and he shoots less than a free throw a game. Basically, he camps on the 3 point line and screams “Man, fuck dis shit” if he doesn’t get fed. How much do you want to bet that whoever has him will attempt to double the post because we’re the dumbest motherscratchers who have ever stepped on a basketball court? His stats show that he wilted in ACC play, but we’re generally good for what ails you.

They have a 7 footer named Chas. Ha ha ha ha!

The rest of the team, I can’t comment on authoritatively as I’ve seen Wake play exactly twice. It’s basically a bunch of dudes that can’t shoot at all and can defend, more or less. If that’s a gross over-generalization, please weigh in.

My guess?

If Wake guards us relentlessly, we lose. They need to extend, pressure, trap, press and generally mess with our world on ever possession with every two bit pressure tactic imaginable – even if they give up some easy baskets early. If they do that, turnovers will feed their offense, and our emotional delicacy will kick in such that they can get the win.

They have a senior point guard, a super-athletic forward, maybe a shooter, and a good number of bodies that they can throw at us defensively. That’s enough to beat us.

However, this Wake team is playing miserably. And coaches are famous for coming into the tournament and deciding that they’re going to “just play basketball” so as not to over-complicate their team’s mental game. That’s a bad approach for us. Playing us straight up makes no sense.

I think I like us to win, as hilarious as that reads.

Particularly the 17 year olds that are healthy, tall, and bad at sports.

I stumbled across this Rick Reilly article on Inside Texas and I think it calls for discussion on a number of issues centered around fair play, basic consideration of others, competition, and our society’s increasingly bizarre fixation with preventing youth from experiencing adversity and ensuring outcomes in a world that guarantees none.

First, I have to confess that I’m not a big fan of Rick Reilly and that may be coloring my view on this matter. He can be funny, but his decade-long shtick as self-appointed Defender Of The Downtrodden is annoying. This is the lowest form of writing and formulae. Reilly conjures a villain, presents a pitiful victim, rails about injustice, and then wraps it up in less than 1,000 words with several bad plays on words. Neat, tidy, apply bow.

He also loves to talk tough. Which is amusing if you’ve ever seen Rick Reilly. Mike Lupica and Mitch Albom are slightly less intimidating.

Reilly’s scolding lectures are the writing equivalent of a lay-up. Though apparently Reilly is opposed to that lay-up if the opponent is weak. Better to bounce it off of the front iron as a sign of respect.

At first blush, the article makes plenty of sense. Yates is beating people badly. That in and of itself must be an absolute wrong. The delicate psyches of seventeen year old males are being irreparably harmed…

SOMETHING MUST BE DONE!

Here’s the rub: Houston Yates is the #1 rated team in the country largely because of their frenetic, fast-break system and the incredible conditioning and mental toughness it engenders. They’re not the most talented team in the country. Let’s be clear about that. They just play the hardest and with total selflessness. They have great depth, a fantastic commitment to an exhausting system, and the total belief of their players. They press all game, without fail, and fast break on every possession. That’s their system, that’s what Wise preaches, and that’s what every player on their roster – from scrub to superstar – is expected to execute. The traits I just described above are character-building. Or character-revealing, depending on your slant. But Reilly only ponders the mental constitution of the loser.

Is Wise deserving of Reilly’s bile?

Gerry Hamilton chimed in with something interesting on the IT thread. These are the season records and some scores of two of HY’s more famous opponent blow-outs:

Lee 3-22

FB Bush 119-46
Kempner 79-34
Westbury Christian 79-32
Sharpstown 110-43
Reagan 100-40
Sharpstown 96-46

Houston Davis 0-24

Sterling 110-40
Worthing 100-34
Dulles 112-46
Langham Creek 104-31
Second Baptist 84-23
Sharpstown 104-36
Reagan 120-39
Sharpstown 93-25
Reagan 107-51
Westbury 93-39

Are of all the coaches at the high schools above deserving of suspensions, as Reilly recommends for Wise? Houston Reagan beat Davis by 81. Langham Creek won by 73. And so on. Clearly, you have some basketball teams in Houston that are horrendously bad and that inequity is spitting out some wide margins. If they’re getting blown out by 50+ in every game by average high school teams, what result are you looking for when they play the nation’s best?

What the above represents is inequality. That little thing that plagues life in which some people are better at some things than others. None of us like it very much when inequality is imposed from a outside agent, however we’ve devolved into the politically correct idiot’s notion that any inequality, in and of itself, is wrong. Possibly evil. This is a bad idea and the root of much societal buffoonery.

My guess is that Houston Davis has some kids that would probably pants Yates in a spelling bee, amateur boxing, or an AP History exam. Yates is actually rather famous for losing baseball games in Houston to the tune of 42-1 and 31-0.

The question remains: does Yates have to run it up?

No, they don’t.

In fact, gratuitously running up the score at the high school level is bad sportsmanship and sends a negative message all around, though if it reduces your son or daughter to a blubbering heap that tells me a bit more about you than it does the principle involved. It’s not clear that Yates is running it up on everyone. Though the time-outs and intentional fouling accusations to get to 100, if true, are troubling.

In several blowouts, Yates played the last five men on their bench for most of the game. In several games, their starters had on sweats before halftime. Yates did, however, continue to run their system. A system which, by its nature, amplifies unequal talent distribution with ball pressure and easy scores. With 3rd teamers. Are they to blame for having players buried deep on their bench that would have started at a crosstown rival?

Conversely, is it useful to tell a 3rd teamer not to play hard when he gets his ten minutes in front of his parents and friends? Do only the starters get to run the system that the team relentlessly drills and practices every day?

This gets into territory that isn’t so neatly defined by Reilly’s indignant outrage. Just as there is a message to be sent about class, fair play, and consideration when one opponent clearly outmatches another, every player should also give it their best, play hard, and never quit. In my view, when the dominant team puts in their reserves at an appropriate time, they’ve fulfilled their obligation to fair play. But what if that still yields an ugly result?

If your scrubs are really laying it to someone, what’s the recommended basketball protocol? Tell them to run the full clock and then turn it over on purpose? Allow opponent lay-ups? Play with three men? If you get a breakaway, do you lay the ball down on the opposing free throw line and walk off? At a certain point, artificial kindness morphs into contempt and disrespect. I would much rather be blown out than be condescended to and pitied. Your opponent owes you his best effort. When you’ve cried uncle, the reserves owe you their best effort. When you cry uncle again, the 3rd teamers and ballboys owe you their best effort.

And if you still can’t compete, you need to look at yourself rather than whine about the cruel, unfair world. Why is it your inner-city public school is so deficient when another is so strong? Maybe you shouldn’t be playing basketball at all. Maybe you need a new coach. Maybe you shouldn’t have four starters benched because of No-Pass, No-Play.

Disagree?

How about this?

Yates could throw the game to build Davis esteem. Just have all of their players stand there.

Yates would still go to the playoffs and achieve their ambition of a state title.

Houston Davis should have a huge celebration after the forfeit. Confetti could pour from the rafters, chants of We’re #1 should reverberate through the gym, the players should take a whooping, celebratory sweatless shower as they plan the evening after-party. Now they’re 1-23. They can walk with their heads held high.

I suppose you’d forgotten?

Anyway, what the Wonderlic definitively proves is an individual’s intelligence. There is no other method more respected the world over for its ability to clearly define analytical skills, raw intellect, accumulated wisdom, and cognitive sophistication. I know this because I took a simulation Wonderlic on ESPN and I absolutely rocked it.

The highest score ever recorded was Stephen Hawking’s 53. I suppose he needed every bit of those smarts to make up for his shitty range at free safety. Thanks, Blake Hawking.

Anyway, the notable QB results are:

Sam Bradford – 36
Colt McCoy – 25 *
Jimmy Clausen – 23
Tim Tebow – 22

* played for Texas

I don’t mind that Colt was outperformed by a cross-eyed Apache. Bradford is a good guy. Even a place as accursed as OU is awarded one Bradford for every Bomar, Gundy, and Thompson.

I am also pleased that Colt took down Jersey Shore’s own Jimmy Clausen. That message will resonate at the club.

The real conclusion that we can draw from these results is theological.

Namely, The Lord favors the milder, humbler brand of Aww Shucks evangelism espoused by McCoy and Bradford over the self-promoting in-your-face apocalyptic fundamentalism espoused by Tebow. Tebow’s insatiable public ministry and public relations show “hath made himself a graven image and the Lord did smite him with a brain cloud (Scipio, 5:12).”

Make no mistake, the Wonderlic is not just a measure of intelligence (indeed, the only one that is credible) but, in this instance, it is also a measure of God’s favor. Tebow must now wander in the NFL desert for seven years as a H-back to regain it.

A&M pro day.

I’m not one for kicking someone when they’re down, but…

Some key quotes:

Draft-eligible Aggies tried to impress scouts Wednesday in College Station.

I just want to make the NFL aware that I am also draft eligible.

As is His Holiness, Tenzin Gyatso, the 14th Dalai Lama of Tibet.

Most of you are draft eligible as well. Unless you flee to Canada.

But there wasn’t a ton of attention, given that no A&M football player was invited to the recent NFL combine.

Oh. Neither was I. Is that like, a call, a letter, what? Because my Verizon has been f’ed up.

There were representatives from nine teams on hand to watch 17 Aggies run, jump and go through other agility drills.

First of all, if the Aggies are just randomly running and jumping, I’m starting to see the disconnect. The NFL demands discipline. They’re not drafting kittens.

To hell with your joi de vivre!

Second, is it credible to count the GM from the Toronto Argonauts and a confused scout from Tottenham Hotspur among the nine present?

Thirdly, there are 30 teams in the NFL.

Nine showed.

So, math.

So, holy %%^%@#%^.

I now provide this thread as a therapeutic safe haven for any Aggie readers that wish to rail against Dennis Franchione’s recruiting.

For us, he was much like the Baby Boomers regard James Taylor.

Or Charo.

Like Kajagoogoo, he was the soundtrack of a time and place.

We’ll miss you Cory.

I don’t know about you, but tonight I’ll be wearing my sunglasses.

Corey Hart-Sunglasses at Night – MyVideo

It appears I’ve made a mistake.

A mistake for which I am very sorry.

Corey Hart is alive and well living in the Bahamas, still one of the most influential Canadian rockers since Loverboy. My apologies for any pain I may have caused Mr. Hart or his family.

Still, my sadness is not diminished.

I stare at the precipice and I think of Cory. I think of innocence lost, a simpler time and place, when a woman with good genetics and hormones extracted from rhinoceros urine could fashion herself as the nearly feminine alternative to Bev Francis.

Cory was just such a woman and we will miss her.

You Madame, Are A Blacksmith Of Smiles.

And you’ve stolen our hearts…

Again, some confusion.

I’ve been informed that was 6 time Ms Olympia Cory Everson. She is still alive and well, married to a cosmetic dentist with two beautiful adopted children.

I’m filled with regret and it threatens to brim over into the ecosystem like so much unfiltered sewage. My regret will poison tributaries and small brooks, that is how much of it there is, spilling out of me.

I was wrong.

But in remembering Cory, one must move past regret and think of what he gave us in the 1980s. Fleeting moments of laughter, an eternal fountain of youth captured on celluloid, hope for homely boys with rat tail haircuts that they too could make it in the Big Bad World.

Adieu, sweet prince.

This isn’t going well.

That, of course, was Corey Feldman on what appears to be a Moldovan Public Access Show called Electric Circus.

Gomennasai!

That’s Japanese. The best language for expressing regret that there is. I wish I could commit seppuku right now, plunging a steely dagger wordlessly into my bowel and abdomen so that you could understand my regret.

But that is not my custom. I’m American. I can offer only my words.

I now realize that I don’t know who Cory Haim is exactly. He – or she – was an influential and important part of the 1980s, like Miami Vice or Hee Haw.

Cory Haim.

Mystery Cory.

Elusive Cory.

Cory, Cory, Cory.

Who came from a place. And did things. And had some success? And probably some failures? And laughed! Oh, how you laughed!

And cried a little too, I’ll bet.

You sang or acted or invented something or assassinated a political leader. For that we thank you. Or curse you, depending on what is it you did.

But we will never forget you.

BAM!

Is that him?

The conference was held on March 6th, headlined by luminaries like Rockets GM (and ‘00 Sloan School grad) Daryl Morey, author Michael Lewis, Colts GM Bill Polian, Mavs owner Mark Cuban, and ESPN Bah-stahhnophile Bill Simmons.

It attracted over 1,000 fans, job seekers, knowledge enthusiasts, sexless dorks, and rationals. Dan Shanoff offers a capable recap.

I thought this piece of advice from Shanoff was particularly meaningful:

Here’s how I see it: If you really want to be a team front-office executive, you are better off spending your summer internship not fetching coffee for a team or leading stats-oriented Web site. Start your own (blog) and own the hell out of some segment of analysis. Post daily, post brilliantly, gently pass your stuff around to folks in media who would appreciate it. If it’s good — and if you’re not good, you might as well not even try — the teams will notice. There is no barrier (at least no publishing barrier) to becoming your own expert and putting your talent on display. THAT is the fast track.

There is some precedent here. 1970s Sabremetrics pioneer Bill James was hired as a special consultant to at least one major league team on the strength of a hand-stapled newsletter (after years of being ignored and aggressively mocked). In that sense, being a protester to the orthodoxy wasn’t much different from Thomas Paine two hundred years previous or Martin Luther another two hundred before that – you were essentially a pamphleteer of grievance. The internet has changed everything.

The Blogger-to-Front-Office hire is coming.

Hardwood Paroxysm tells us that Moneyball analytical methods are already cracking the NBA establishment:

Trade and free agency decisions are increasingly being made with more statistical information, and Oliver broke down how widespread this is all becoming and stated that he knows of eight teams that have actually integrated advanced analytics into their decision-making (Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Oklahoma City, Orlando and Portland).

Like MLB, the NBA and NFL will see an increased use of unconventional analytics. Anecdotal and experiential data – traditional scouting, the accumulated wisdom of former players and coaches – will be complemented, if not supplanted, by methods more friendly to falsification, verification, and the extraction of value. As methodological sophistication increases, we can all anticipate Goldman Sachs bundling Kevin Durant futures expressed in plus-minus, tying them to the Greek economy, sprinkled with a Laotian kip counterweight hedge.

A sure thing!

The challenge that the NBA and NFL face is that they are games featuring mutually dependent interplay and teammate-contingent results – unlike baseball, which is essentially a team game played in individual parallel, and thus lends itself to easy analysis. Breaking down the importance of the RB vs. the OL vs. the scheme isn’t easy to do.

Unless you’ve followed Mike Shanahan’s career.

My own guess is that the New New Thing in basketball will be the ability to marry meaningful plus-minus metrics with advanced performance statistics (say shooting percentage sorted by distance from basket, time on shot clock, good shot/bad shot, defended/undefended) and actual game film such that it becomes a teaching tool and is capable of behavioral impact, not just as an ex post facto evaluation tool.

It’s one thing to tell a player that a 2-pointer shot from just inside the 3 point line is the worst shot in basketball or that the 3 pointer from the corner is one of the best, it’s quite another to be able to integrate it as a real-time teaching tool.

Imagine game film where the player watches himself run through the offense, a small read-out above his on-screen head calculates the adjusted value of each potential shot depending on his spot on the floor. Or defensively, seeing the same metrics as the offensive player gets an clear-out iso at the top of the 3 point line with 12 seconds on the shot clock. As a GM, you’re now informing action rather than just reacting to a season’s body of work.

Jeff Ma recounts a part of the conference that I found most interesting as it speaks to what is most difficult to do in decision-making – the ability to pull the trigger on what your convictions and analysis tell you to do when all others are losing their heads:

Particularly interesting and relevant personally was a discussion between Pollian, Kraft and Simmons regarding Belichick’s infamous 4th and 2 decision. Pollian and Kraft both supported Belichick’s decision while Simmons’ remains staunchly against the decision. Simmons’ main argument centers on the Patriots’ poor use of time outs and play calling preceding the 4th and 2 and less on the decision itself, but he remains adamant that it was the wrong decision.

Simmons’ failure here is the inability to marry analysis with rationality, though he fancies himself a rational. Which is pretty much his calling card as it relates to Boston sports teams. This is primarily a failure of will, the refusal to see what is right in front of you, the graveyard of Wall Street analysts, Enron execs, utopian politicians, and the captains of wrecked ships. It’s the most insidious sort of peer pressure. If you want to understand why Warren Buffett is a billionaire, you need look no further than this aspect of his character.

During this discussion, Polian made the point that using statistics to make this type of decision is irrelevant since there are so many factors that can’t be taken into account by the statistics. Polian is actually citing something called “reduction bias” where in order to solve a complex problem, one reduces the number of variables to make the situation easier to solve. But what Polian fails to acknowledge is the importance of using numbers to help you make these types of decisions. Of course numbers are not going to definitively tell you what is right to do here, but in this case the numbers supported that there was an option besides punting the ball – an observation that most in football would not accept as feasible.

Right. It’s not that the 4th and 2 call was clearly good or bad. It was a near thing, statistically, and contextually within the game. I’ll even call it a coin flip. Yet the post-game reactionaries viewed a close proposition as something more like 95-5 against. Confirming that most of our beliefs are based on superstition, anecdote, and legend rather than hard numbers.

I’m guilty of it too.

I watched that Patriots-Colts game live and can recall my own instant bias: how can the Patriots not punt this ball? I began to mouth the familiar orthodoxy: It’s 4th and 2, you must kick it and play defense! Then my rational mind kicked in, I started running the numbers, and realized that this was far from madness – in fact it was defensible. Probably advisable. However, the 4th down wasn’t converted, so that it was the wrong call became ironclad fact. Now it was about media and fan perception and the predictable dumb recitation of football tradition and time-honored platitudes.

Also known as ESPN.

I listed to Bill Simmons post-game podcast and Simmons, one of the proponents of the New Analysis, spent an hour excoriating Belichick’s play call, offering that it proved Belichick was being contrarian to reinforce his own personal brand as a risk taker to the detriment of the team, that he was now likely washed up, that it was an act without any rational explanation. Hmm. That Simmons is then a lead panelist at a conference examining a rational approach to sports is proof that when it comes to applied analysis, human psychology is always the final barrier.

And you thought Barking Carnival’s coverage of gay athletes would end with Graham Harrell’s graduation?

So, the Gay Games.

The first question is…why? Why does every group need their own games?

The Special Olympics make sense to me. They draw attention to a worthy cause, encourage giving, build self-esteem in the athletes, and reward their families with an enriching experience. That aside, I feel like I could go there and dominate. Is that bragging? Yes. I don’t apologize for wearing the confident musk of physical dominance. And the ladies like it just fine.

The Paralympics also make sense to me. The athletes competing have physical disabilities, they’re on equal footing – or absence of footing – and within that context they’re fierce competitors. If you’ve ever seen Murderball, these guys and gals kick ass and take names. I could not dominate these games. Neither could you.

I played wheelchair basketball once and I “ran” the court like George Mikan on rollerskates. After five fast breaks, my forearms were burning with lactic acid, my hands were blistered, and I realized that even the most assiduous masturbation regimen is in no way sufficient preparation for this taxing punishment. Wheelchair athletes are conditioned like gibbons and they can open a jelly preserve jar using only their pinky and an index finger. I distinctly remember shooting at least two airballs and my plus-minus was around -17. I faked a non-specific injury just to quit and lay on some gym mats.

Yeah, I know what you’re thinking, I rolled into their world. What about ours?

Well, my brother used to do Brazilian jiu-jitsu with a guy that was legally blind. My brother was pretty good. But this blind guy was a 250 pound Purple Belt that methodically submitted everyone in the gym like they were a braille term paper. I can only hope that bro avenged himself by hiding the dude’s gym bag occasionally. Bottom line: the handicapped have thoroughly dominated my family. Heather Mills would have probably beaten out my sister for drill team captain.

I’d support a Mental Illness Olympics. You only need one schizophrenic to do pair’s figure skating and the 4X100 meter Depression Amble could be canceled for ennui.

The Gay Olympics are senseless though. Why the schisming? Gay athletes dominate a number of universal Olympic sports, male and female. Figure skaters, softball players, track athletes, even some of the gymnasts once they’re allowed to hit puberty. There is no heterosexual oppression preventing participation. The Gay Games aren’t sexuality’s Negro Leagues. They have no barriers to entry (oh, no he didn’t). Some of the greatest athletes in Olympic history MAY BE GAY. I AM NOT SURE.

Further, the Gaylympics aren’t very elite competition. The records are unimpressive. In the 18-29 age category, Brian Fell won the last Gay Games with a 10.97 100 meters. That’s a solid high school time, but that’s not going to win any meets in your local district. I checked out the powerlifting and wrestling medalists and found that Brian Fell didn’t compete. If he had medaled there as well, Brian Fell would be a homophobe’s worst nightmare.

So what’s this about? It’s not like the ancient Olympics where men competed naked doused in olive oil and spent their evenings creating philosophy and buggering.

I think it’s all a big hook-up. A party. The only thing missing is foam, picky doormen, and MDMA. It’s a chance to hang out with other impeccably groomed men with faux hawks, sculpted bodies, and an extraordinary ability to accessorize. Or, conversely, to seek out other athletic women that love flannel, sensible haircuts, and kd lang albums. Think of the common ground struck in the Gaylympic Village: “What? No way! I love the Indigo Girls, incoherent feminist literature, and epee too! What are the odds?”

I’m uncertain as to why the Gay Games are in Cologne, Germany. When I think of great gay meccas, I think of San Francisco, West Hollywood, Sydney, London, Berlin, any gym in downtown Austin, A&M Yell Leader initiation, logging camps in the Yukon, and, well, the actual Mecca. I don’t know anything about Cologne except that it’s going to smell a lot like Axe body spray this July.

Well, I guess you gays do your thing. We’ll do ours.