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I don’t have the time to adorn this nerd porn with flowery prose. So, I’ll just jump right in…
I’ve compared the Texas offense/defense versus the Alabama offense/defense in terms of differential yards per play gained/allowed compared to that of their opponents. In summary, what I’ve found is the following:
Defense:
On average, Texas and Alabama are defensive equals. Texas holds its opponents to -31.75% below their average YPP; Alabama holds its opponents to -27.9% under their average YPP. Out of its 13 games, Texas held its opponent below its average YPP in 12 (the lone exception was the A&M debacle). Bama held its opponent below their average YPP in all 12 games (I discarded Bama’s game against Chattanooga). Texas’ opponents ranked, on average, #54.7 in the country in total offense; Bama’s opponents ranked #57.25.
Bama’s defense was more consistent. However, except for the A&M game, Texas was better than Bama on the differential YPPA measure. Take out that one game, and Texas was better than Bama defensively by about the same amount that Bama is better than Texas offensively (more on that in a minute).
The following distribution shows each defense’s differential YPPA performance (in terms of percentage) over the season.
Offense:
Overall, Bama’s offense is better at outperforming their opponents’ average than is Texas’. Over the season, Texas outgained its opponents’ average YPPA by 12.3%; Bama outgained its opponents average YPPA by 19.2% Both Texas and Bama failed to outgain their opponents’ average YPPA in four games. However, Texas had three games where it fell short by more than 10%; Bama only two. Texas had four performances in the -10% to +10% range (which I consider roughly average); Bama had only two in this range. Texas had only 6 games where it gained 10% or more above its opponents’ average YPPA; Bama had 8. See the chart below.
In summary, Alabama’s offense was simply better than Texas’ at outperforming against its competition’s average. And Alabama faced more highly ranked defenses than did the Longhorns – the average of Texas’ opponents’ defensive ranking was #59.6; Alabama faced defenses ranked #48.8 on average.
Conclusion
Once again, it looks like Texas’ offense will be the trouble spot. These two defenses are equally matched, although there might be a slight edge to the Horns. But Texas’ mediocre offensive performance, coupled with a particular ineffectiveness against quality defenses (which the Tide certainly have), has me pessimistic about our chances. I sure hope I’m wrong.
Hook ‘Em Horns.
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post We Have Our Answer 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
And yes, it appears JoPo wrote pretty much the same thing. It’s hard to believe with all the national talking heads, fans, and everyone in between saying otherwise, but I think it’s the only conclusion to draw for anyone that really watched this team.
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post We Have Our Answer 1 hour, 15 minutes ago
And yes, it appears JoPo wrote pretty much the same thing. It’s hard to believe with all the national talking heads, fans, and everyone in between saying otherwise, but I think it’s the only conclusion to draw for anyone that really watched this team.
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Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout 9 hours, 11 minutes ago
Patrick,
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Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout 9 hours, 11 minutes ago
Patrick,
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Thanks for the kind words, Trips.
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You know who’s bitter and angry as fuck? This guy —> ME.
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To leave or stay?
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three 13 hours, 8 minutes ago
Just wanted to say I feel for you guys. As a Texas fan I know how this feels even if it’s from a football perspective.
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fitzhume said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
Screw the data, give me intangibles!
BatesHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
(fingers in ears)
lalalalalalalalalalalalalala.
thestos said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:23 pm
Stats are for losers!!! Boom MFer
fbomb said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:28 pm
Yeah Boom!
What about special teams? Got stats on that? How about Earl Thomas takin’ a pick 6 to the house? Stats?
How about Blake Gideon summersaulting over the O-Line, planting a flying roundhouse in the QB’s grill, stripping the ball and pantsing the bama cheerleaders on the way to the end zone?
<<<>>> Alarm clock sounds….
Huckleberry said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
We have 26.1% more clutch intangibles. You and Scipio must share tampons. We’re going to kick their ass.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Another thing to consider: Alabama’s best offensive performance in terms of differential YPP was against the best defense the Tide faced all year (Florida, 75.4% above the Gators’ average YPPA). In fact, three of their top 5 offensive performances on this measure came against the top three defenses faced by the Tide. Compare that to the Longhorns’ track record against Top 5 defenses, and the advantage to Alabama looks even more substantial.
NBMisha said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Nice facts. But, as you imply via your probablistic analysis, you could develop an S curve of probabilities that Texas’s differential performance v. Bama will be better than vice versa. Unless that’s less than about 35% for UT, it looks like a tossup.
Slow your Roll Tide said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
We scored 14 on Tennessee.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
NBMisha,
It’s a small data set, but these facts trouble me: (1) Texas’ offense performs ineptly against elite defenses and (2) Alabama’s offense excels against elite defenses. Since this subset of data is pretty uniform, it appears very likely that Bama will outperform our D’s YPPA and Texas will underperform Bama’s.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:45 pm
Huck – what does your rankings gizmo project for this game?
Huckleberry said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
Texas wins eleventy billion to zero.
I have three models. The points-only model calls it a tossup (Bama by 0.2 points), while the two models that use yards per play call Bama a 6.5-point favorite.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Do the two YPP models have any accounting for special teams (both in terms of field position and scores), defensive scores or turnovers? If not, that could account for the difference.
uthookem said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Regardless of what happens, they have to go back to living in Alabama.
Also, in both games we shit the bed on offense (especially against NU), we played not to lose. We’ll play a different game tonight.
Fuck! Is it time to leave work yet?
lazer2280 said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
Man, Aggy sure is lucky that nobody on that campus is capable of statistical analysis. Had they known how statistically inferior they were, they probably wouldn’t have showed up for the game and almost beaten us………………..
thestos said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
yes…the children have left the school building…even though in 7th period golf athletics i let them watch the golf channel and we flipped to college football live during the commercial breaks…i wanted to watch it the whole time, but I had to maintain some sort of integrity.
lazer2280 said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
Twain said it best: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
I may have paraphrased a bit, but you get the point.
Screw Bama, Hook ‘Em Horns!
uthookem said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
Also, do the stats include the bowl games?
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:15 pm
Yes.
HenryJames said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
uthookem said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:23 pm
Who is your daddy, and what does he do?
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
Twain said it best: there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.
These statistics don’t lie about the past. Let’s hope they’re poor predictors of the near future. The D will keep us in the game, the special teams will provide some sparks, and hopefully the offense bucks its own trends.
Fico said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
What about doing the same thing with points instead of yards per play? Would be interesting to see.
Huckleberry said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
Turnovers yes. Return yardage and scores no. And that is almost certainly the source of the discrepancy.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
Fico – points is a pain in the ass for me, because I don’t think the NCAA’s statistics website distinguishes between offensive and defensive/ST scores. I’m too lazy to track all that on my own by, for example, digging through box scores for each game. So I can’t do that comparison on a separate basis for the offense and defense.
I believe the score-based model Huck referred to relies on the total points scored/allowed by each team. According to this measure, Texas and Bama are very close.
Orangeblood said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
More statistics and a prediction from Mackovic:
http://www.mydesert.com/article/20100107/COLUMNS46/1070337/1026/news12/I-ve-done-the-research-you-don-t-have-to
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:39 pm
One last thing after coaching the Longhorns for six seasons, I can tell you this. Those boys will always play up to the competition.
Oh, the irony.
January 7th, 2010 at 2:44 pm
Your analysis is flawed. You are not taking into account special teams or red zone efficiency.
Borrowing heavily from espn…
“Alabama finished 116th in the nation in kickoff coverage, allowing 25.66 yards per kick. Texas finished fourth in the nation in kickoff returns, with 27.38 yards per return. You don’t need an expert to tell you that the Longhorns have an advantage here. The Crimson Tide’s problems skewed earlier in the season than late. But Texas had 14 kickoff returns of at least 26 yards. The average says that it will happen at least once Thursday night. Advantage, Longhorns.”
The other big one is red-zone scoring. “Both offenses are efficient in the red zone. Texas has scored on 95 percent of its drives (53-of-56); Alabama is right behind at 85 percent (47-55). Both have dependable kickers. The difference is that the Longhorns don’t call on Hunter Lawrence as often as the Crimson Tide call on Leigh Tiffin. Texas has crossed the goal line on 71 percent of its red zone drives (40-56); Alabama is stuck at 45 percent (25-55).”
Basically, it don’t mean a hairy rats ass if they average more yards per play IF THEY CAN’T SCORE A TD. This team went through a 4 game stretch with only 2 offensive TD’s. Put another way… you can go 10 yards per play and go 2 yards per play inside the 20 and get just 3 pts… or go 8 yards a play and score 7 pts inside the 20. We are basically option #2.
We are the #3 scoring offense for a reason…a full 9 pts more per game… because that stat takes into account defensive TD’s and Special teams and Red zone performance.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:48 pm
Like you, Donny, I’m pinning my hopes on ST and defense. I hope those make more of a difference than our ineptitude against top defenses.
Oh, and you’re out of your element. Not really. But I couldn’t resist.
ghostofagroundgame said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:49 pm
Chinaman is not the preferred nomenclature.
Jigglebilly said:
January 7th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
All I got out of Mackovic’s article is this: “John Mackovic is a La Quinta resident.” BWAHAHAHA!
January 7th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
I should’ve prefaced my comments with ‘good stuff’. Just not the complete picture. :)
Brian Combs said:
January 7th, 2010 at 3:03 pm
It’s easy to look good in these numbers when you play a bunch of SEC teams for whom three points is a statistically significant increase or decrease.
ghostofagroundgame said:
January 7th, 2010 at 3:52 pm
It’s funny that everyone keeps pretending like Alabama is some kind of juggernaut. They’re not. They’re coming off of their best game of the season. We are coming off of our worst. Football is a funny game. It ain’t like this is Cincy vs. Fla.
BrickHorn said:
January 7th, 2010 at 3:54 pm
It’s funny that everyone keeps pretending like Alabama is some kind of juggernaut.
I don’t think Alabama is a juggernaut. But they’re better than OU and Nebraska, two teams we played at neutral sites and were lucky to beat. That said, this Texas team has a knack for surviving close games, no matter the opponent.
Name (required) said:
January 7th, 2010 at 6:11 pm
“Sir, if you don’t shut up I’m going to kick 100% of your ass!!”
— Brad Hamilton
BrickHorn said:
January 8th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Once again, it looks like Texas’ offense will be the trouble spot.
I hate to say “I told you so,” but…
In all seriousness, what a fucked-up game. Texas’ defense and special teams were exceptional. Yes, the defense played well last night. Only 14 or 17 of Bama’s 37 points fell on the D, and we held them to under 300 total yards despite having no offensive support for 30 minutes. The offense did what it could while fighting with one hand behind it’s back and, frankly, far exceeded my expectations in the second half.