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Posted by jonestopten on December 9th, 2009 under Football
This should be a punchline to a three wise men joke or a post on Judaic mythos. It is neither, rather an apology, a thought and a theory.
I owe Hunter Lawrence an apology and so, too, might others. In this week’s jones top ten, I wrote:
Hunter Lawrence hit the game-winner for the Horns from 46. It would not have been good from 47.
Today, at BON, the very fine writer, Ghost of Big Roy, described the kick:
Left just far enough, but not too far, with just enough draw to bring it back right to sneak through the left upright with only inches to spare.
BC reader RichUT pointed out to me that I was engaging in a bit of hyperbole and Lawrence’s kick was easily across. He is correct. I will remember the kick, in my emotionally drained and inebriated state, as being whisker close. But it wasn’t. Looking back at the replay sober, the kick might have been close to the upright, but it was not tailing away and cleared the bar by a few feet. Lawrence probably could have hit from 52-53, if that had been necessary.
On Onan…I listened with interest to an Alabama radio guy named Brett Beard from Florence earlier this week. He described Nick Saban’s focus on Florida, since the final gun of last season’s SEC title game loss, as something close to maniacal obsession. The claim was that Saban had game-planned for the Gators all year, even to the detriment of preparation during other game weeks. Beard quoted a stat (unconfirmed) that Saban was 14-1 lifetime in “re-match games” after a previous loss.
My question: How much of their seed has Alabama spilled, so to speak? Will it make a difference?
Final thought…am I the only one convinced that Javier Arenas scores an easy touchdown the first time Justin Tucker gets off a flat rugby punt under pressure? One of the biggest mysteries to me this season is why we don’t employ a Shane Lechler punt-a-alike against dangerous return men. We have one on the roster. Gold, Jerry, pure Gold…
Thoughts and recriminations welcome.
dedfischer said:
December 9th, 2009 at 10:57 am
I was sitting in the end zone behind the kick. It looked like money off his foot and actually was a lot closer on TV than what it appeared from behind. Shit-ton of distance.
Burnt Orange Wookiee said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:15 am
Bad news for us. Saban has been planning this day of revenge on Mack Brown for the 2003 Cotton Bowl a long, long time. 6 years to be precise. That mean’s it’ll be 6x the devastation Saban laid upon Florida if he has his way.
uthookem said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:18 am
Texas will beat Alabama because the team has waited an entire year to get to Pasadena, and every game prior the final game in Pasadena was seen as a land mine and a chance to fuck everything up. Now that everything is complete, all land mines have been dodged, it’s time to play without anything to lose. We have, essentially been playing not to lose all season, and it worked.
Alabama has focused on one team for an entire year, and they got their chance and made the most of it.
Texas by 10.
Scipio Tex said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Hunter Lawrence is The Man. We’ll need him to kick four 40+ yard field goals against Alabama to go with Aaron Williams pick 6 so that we have a chance to win 19-17.
Alabama has spilled nothing as it relates to us. It’s a one game season now. Saban has 30 days for game planning focused solely on our passing game and that’s pretty much unfair.
Our only hope on offense is that Saban adopts a “we’re going to play Alabama football” mentality and sticks to his knitting. That would be the wrong move as we’re an offense deeply vulnerable to easy gimmicks -overload one side, play 7 DBs, defend the run with four men, bracket Shipley – because we don’t have a running game to punish things that are unsound. Saban is no fool. He can watch the OU and NU games and draw the same conclusions I drew back in August when everyone else was convinced we were going to have a world-beating offense.
Of course Alabama will score or set up a score in the kicking game. That’s just science.
uthookem said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:25 am
I’m also a blatant homer.
PrimeTime said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:31 am
Even watching it from TV, you could tell the kick had a lot of distance in it. I don’t know how close it was to the right upright (from the TV angle) or left upright (kicker’s angle). It sure seemed close. I loved Musberger’s call on that “For everything!!!!” Could not have been more true. Everything was on the line in that kick. Mack’s legacy as a coach. Colt’s legacy as a player. Our national championship and Big 12 goals could all have been ruined. Just thinking about if he missed or if the ran out is hard to take and comprehend. Most important kick in Longhorn history. Bigger than the kick over Michigan in the Rose Bowl.
Remember how we used to have such shitty kickers over the years? Pino, Mangum, McGee, Johnson, Garland, the list goes on. Guys could not make an extra point. The last four years we have had some of the clutchest and most reliable in school history. An extra point wasn’t a formality now everything under 45 yards is almost automatic. Thank God Mack finally started recruiting better kickers. Hell we even have quality depth at that position.
Now find a god damn kicker who can kick the ball in the end zone.
Arenas isn’t as good as people think. Most of his returns have come against the scrub teams on their schedule or when the game is out of reach.
magnusbleuveigner said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:34 am
dedfischer is a UT fan.
My solace in this game is this. We have the capability to hold them to 13 or under. Bama’s offense is not as good as it showed against Florida. An Aaron Williams picks six sounds good except it seems like everytime he gets an int he’s 8 ft in the air and lands squarely on his back side. I haven’t seen him jump many routes, but that may change on a J. Jones hot route. Earl…..yeah, Earl…..pick 6.
How long until the three named, bowl cut, douche bags find their way here? I’m getting antsy.
Lilia B. said:
December 9th, 2009 at 11:56 am
PrimeTime, I beg to differ that Dusty Mangum was a shitty kicker:
-Ranks third on UT’s all-time scoring list with 358 points (first among kickers)
-Ended his senior season as the nation’s fourth-leading active career scorer
-Set a UT record with 121 consecutive made PATs (previous: 57, Kris Stockton, 1998-99) and also holds the second place record with 67 straight
-Recorded two of the top 10 scoring seasons on UT record
-Scored a Longhorns freshman-record 102 points (54-of-55 PATs/16-of-23 FGs) in 2001
-Made 11-of-15 field goals, 2-of-2 from 50-plus yards, including the game-winning FG in the Rose Bowl, and connected on 50-of-51 PATs in 2004
JUICE said:
December 9th, 2009 at 12:24 pm
“Final thought…am I the only one convinced that Javier Arenas scores an easy touchdown the first time Justin Tucker gets off a flat rugby punt under pressure? ”
I had this conversation in the hall not five minutes ago, so, no, you are not the only one.
BeeCaves said:
December 9th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
Oh, for god’s sake, stop obsessing about chickenshit details. Focus on the one word that matters–MUDHOLE!
That’s right, Hornland, forget scheme and execution, just go dig up those unused mudholes from the A&M and Nebraska games, mash them into one super pie and tote it off to Pasadena with you–that’s all you need.
Remember: MUDHOLE, baby!!
OldTimeHorn said:
December 9th, 2009 at 12:33 pm
I’m with uthookem. Plus, given that the watchwords “we play ‘em one at a time” and “we’ll dance with who brung us” seem lately passe, I wouldn’t be surprised to see UT unveil some offensive wrinkles that have been surreptitiously practiced since spring.
nordberg said:
December 9th, 2009 at 12:36 pm
BeeCaves has a good point. We are 2-0 after mudhole posts after all.
Thanks BeeCaves!
Patrck said:
December 9th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Hopefully this new wrinkle you speak of isn’t the wildhorn.
uthookem said:
December 9th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
It’s the SUPER wildhorn!
Pakihorn said:
December 9th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Nordberg, you forget the Mudhole post for Tech last year. So we are really 2-1. They have also been the 3 most unpleasant and stressful games of the last 2 seasons.
Orangeblood79 said:
December 9th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
Wrong, and wrong.
It’s the Q Package.
henley said:
December 9th, 2009 at 1:42 pm
First play – pumpfake the hitch to the left and hit a streaking Williams down the right sideline for 6. Then punt on third down for the rest of the game.
nordberg said:
December 9th, 2009 at 1:45 pm
If Greg Davis could become self aware (like Skynet!) for just three and a half hours on January 7th, then Texas would have about a 75% chance of winning. Recognize our tendencies, and go away from them completely, just for one game. Like Costanza, do the complete opposite of what Greg Davis would normally do in every situation. Texas 104, Alabama 3.
mockingbird said:
December 9th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
Arenas had some monster returns against non-conference play (Chatanooga).
In conference he averaged 20 yards in punts and 31 yards in kick offs, with zero TDS for the season.
He barely has more yards than DJ Monroe, who hasn’t played the second half of the season.
Roach said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:17 pm
uh Primetime,
UT has a history of very good clutch kickers. Perhaps you thought this was the Florida State site? Or Notre Dame?
In fact, I can’t remember one game winning kick we’ve missed.
Looney said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:25 pm
“Beard quoted a stat (unconfirmed) that Saban was 14-1 lifetime in “re-match games” after a previous loss”
I saw that somewhere in the last few days before this post… maybe on that poorly conceived and ridiculously unnecessary BCS Selection Show?
spider said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
What the hell does any of this have to do with Onan’s Pizza?
CloseToJumping said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:31 pm
Geez, the mudhole with a life of its own. Funny and sad. It is like there is a dare to do one for this game.
In watching the Hunter Lawrence kick on Saturday, I was seated around the distant 35 yard line. To me, from the stands, the kick was never in question.
My daughter met John Gold’s mother in the restroom of a pastry shop in Corsicana when we were driving up for the game on Saturday. I view that as a meaningless item other than this is the only thread, ever, where that note can be even remotely germane. Nice lady, apparently. I’d like to see him get a chance to get out there and punt. The dude has always been solid.
In watching Arenas the past few seasons, it’s clear he can take it to the house against any competition, whether it happened that way this season or not. What’s more worrisome is our habit of melting down on kickoff and punt coverage at the worst times. Why in the world would you even attempt to kick it to this guy on punts? I thought that same thought ahead of the KSU game in 1999. We promptly sprinted out onto the field, outkicked the coverage with a line drive to David Allen, and “poof”, a trend was started. I get the feeling we’re destined to kick it to Arenas at precisely the wrong point in the game, too.
Unlike Scipio, I fail to consider Saban some masterful robot magician. He’s a genius, but he’s human and he’s going to spend a lot of energy this month not strictly focused on the X’s and O’s of this game. The Head Coach going into this game has to spend time outside of the film and war rooms this month. Counter to that, and frighteningly, Davis can do that. My hope is, and it is clearly just a hope, that the Bama defense is so erratic and unpredictable in regard to how they come at opponents that Davis won’t be able to develop some idiotic concept of what their tendencies are, so he’ll focus more on what he simply wants the offense to do. The Bama defense is less predictable than what OU or UNL puts out there. Still, there is no shortage of stupidity when it comes to Davis, so he’ll probably still find some perceived tendencies to cling to for comfort in establishing his idiotic plan. Regardless, I expect the Bama team to be less focused and less sky high than they were against Florida. It’s silly, but there is little doubt that that game was their first BCS game and getting up twice is going to be tougher to do.
magnusbleuveigner said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Soooo you’re saying?………Mudhole?
tree said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
close to jumping –
how about a write up about why UT doesn’t stomp a mudhole in alabama…
CloseToJumping said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:54 pm
tree–
You should write that. You can counter the atomic weight of the mudhole with an anti-mudhole. The guys on Shaggy do that before every game and it seems to have worked this season.
Alabama provides too much fodder and there is too much handwringing for it to be avoided. 3 in a row, FTW!
?
98 said:
December 9th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Fuck Karma…Mudhole!
Scipio Tex said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:11 pm
I’m amused at the idea that a team can’t get up again for a big game played…35 days later.
I just lifted weights yesterday. I’m really sore. I hope I can manage to do again some time around January 20th. Don’t know if I’ll be up for it.
CloseToJumping said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:14 pm
I agree. I can’t think of another time when it’s happened to Bama.
remotely germane said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:16 pm
i had a class with john gold this semester… which is as pretty meaningless as ctj’s story.
nordberg said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:20 pm
If they spent the last 365 days waiting for that one game, I could see a letdown. Especially after the whole banquet tour thing.
Bowls are weird. Take four or five weeks off, and then play another game. It’s always hard to tell what teams will show up, and how they’ll behave when they get there. For examples, contrast Texas 2003 Holiday Bowl vs. Texas 2007 Holiday Bowl.
magnusbleuveigner said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:22 pm
We have to have a Mudhole post. The NU fans were way too nice, and it gets real old abusing Agnes. Bring on SEC douche. Please. Put your heart and soul in it. And, even if we lose, we still refuse to admit they’re the better team, and point to all the “facts” in the Mudhole as to why they aren’t.
magnusbleuveigner said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:23 pm
Scipio, weights? I figured you for spinning classes and bikram yoga.
magnusbleuveigner said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:24 pm
Nordberg, for the love of god, don’t bring up Holiday Bowls. We’re trying to put those behind us.
Scipio Tex said:
December 9th, 2009 at 3:50 pm
I agree. I can’t think of another time when it’s happened to Bama.
Listen, you gibbering swamp ape, if you cannot see the distinction here between a Bama team playing for the national title and a bitterly disappointed Bama team that didn’t want to be playing in the Sugah, I will assume your identity for a day on this network and post things that are intelligent to balance out this opinion.
cincinnatus said:
December 9th, 2009 at 4:22 pm
getting up twice is going to be tougher to do.
That’s what she said.
JTT, I agree with you–as top performances go, Bama probably blew their wad vs. Florida. However, that doesn’t mean they still can’t beat us at only 70% of the peak operating efficiency they displayed in Hot-lanta. To overcome the all-but-certain beatdown that their defense will visit upon Greg Davis’ paint-by-numbers offense, Boom & Co. need to hold Bama to 17 or less, we need one score on defense (possible) or special teams (increasingly becoming a distant memory), and we can’t turn it over more than once. Difficult? Yes. Impossible? Far from it.
“So your telling me there’s a chance …”
–Lloyd Christmas
I am indeed, Lloyd, I am indeed.
CloseToJumping said:
December 9th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
I actually don’t see that much of a difference. There is a very solid chance that they put it all out on the field this past Saturday and they’re planning on throwing their helmets on the field in Pasadena and being handed the trophy. You type as though we don’t see that kind of shit all of the time in sports. As it goes, “these are 18-22 year old athletes, they’re emotional and unpredictable” blah, blah, blah.
And unlike the hard line of certainty here that you’re attempting to draw, my original take was simply that it will be harder for them to get up again than it otherwise would be if the UF game hadn’t been a point of focus for roughly the past 12 months. It is another variable going into this game that could matter for Bama and won’t for Texas. I won’t be stunned if they’re in perfect playing state of mind, but I view the alternative as entirely plausible.
Outside of the character I play on this board and others, I have a hard time with certainty. I feel like every time I take something for granted, life slaps me in the face for it. I admire the way you and SLX and others can do it, and I can fake it (and I will leading up to this game), but in truth I just don’t feel like the weight of the world is against Texas in this game. I feel like a lot of the intangibles can work out fine for us, including the level of emotion each team is able to muster.
CloseToJumping said:
December 9th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
cincinnatus–
If Bama shows up at 70%, they will not win this game. That’s not a credible position to take, sorry. We didn’t go 25-1 over the past 2 years by happenstance and weak opponents. The SEC gets the free pass this season, but Bama’s not good enough to do that and it was indicated to anyone watching for most of the fall. They looked great against VTech, Arkansas, and UF. They sucked against Auburn, Tennessee, MSU, and LSU. They were given the LSU game by the officials, frankly. The Ole Miss game was a tweener. Can’t remember the final score, but in watching it, Snead was going through his problems and Bama’s plodding offense eventually was enough against the mediocre Ole Miss defense. If they show up as they did against VT, UF, and Arkie, we have us a game. If they show up with less than that, we will win the game.
Toadvine said:
December 9th, 2009 at 4:57 pm
Mudhole-4-eva!
2-0 so far. It’s an unstoppable force. Mudhole = messy victory, but victory nonetheless. Without the Mudhole there is no chance Colt’s throw hits something with 1 second left.
cincinnatus said:
December 9th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
If Bama shows up at 70%, they will not win this game.
I wish it were so, but it’s highly doubtful based on recent history. Take that figure literally: Using team scoring stats, Alabama put up 32 points vs. a defense ranked better than ours; 70% of that = 22 points. Alabama also gave up 13 points (0 in the 2nd half) against an offense ranked almost as highly as ours; a 70% performance = 19 points. That still leaves us a FG short.
Furthermore, in the post-VY era, Greg Davis’ offenses have rarely gotten the job done against top-10 ranked scoring defenses (esp. this season). Let’s roll the tape:
2006 Ohio State (#2): 7 points
2007 Oklahoma (#9): 21 points
2008 Ohio State (#7): 24 points
2009 Oklahoma (#7): 16 points
2009 Nebraska (#2 scoring defense, behind #1 Alabama): 13 points
= average of 16 points per game vs. top-10 scoring defenses.
Add it all up and it means Alabama must be a little off their peak performance (which I think is possible, maybe even likely), and Texas must perform at or better than their average performance (which I think is likely). That’s what it will take to win this game. Let’s not kid ourselves otherwise.
magnusbleuveigner said:
December 9th, 2009 at 8:07 pm
Look this is kind of a stupid argument to begin with, but what percentage of a game did Florida play? 40%? We have to play well regardless, but Bama has to play well to beat us too. We’ve proven we can win ugly, and they’ve done the same. The team that plays the field position, turnover free game wins. If it comes down to a last second field goal, I hope we’re kicking it because Tiffin is good.
I heard some guy at the gym talking about how Bama was going to fuck us up. I thought about Stafon Johnsoning him. This game can’t get here soon enough.
cincinnatus said:
December 9th, 2009 at 8:28 pm
Look this is kind of a stupid argument to begin with
Thank you. I double-minored in Stupid Arguments and Bullshit Hypotheticals during college.
Nordberg said:
December 9th, 2009 at 8:45 pm
“Add it all up and it means Alabama must be a little off their peak performance (which I think is possible, maybe even likely), and Texas must perform at or better than their average performance (which I think is likely). That’s what it will take to win this game. Let’s not kid ourselves otherwise.”
I don’t think you’ll get any arguments from anyone here on that.
Home Slice said:
December 9th, 2009 at 8:52 pm
I met Malcolm Williams’ step-brother in a 7-Eleven between Dallas and Grand Prairie about a month ago. Coincidence?
batate said:
December 10th, 2009 at 5:41 am
70% doesn’t work that way. When you convert 3rd downs at 70% of what you were converting before, you’re missing on 1 of 3 third downs that you hit before. 7s turn into 3s; 3s go away. And so on.
In bowl games this decade, Texas has been money. If Alabama comes in at less than full speed, they will lose.
Huckleberry said:
December 10th, 2009 at 5:46 am
So you’re saying we won’t win if Alabama plays their absolute best and we play below par. No kidding.
And if we play our absolute best and Alabama plays below par we will win by at least two touchdowns.
jonestopten said:
December 10th, 2009 at 7:37 am
Great argument–there are actually no stats on seed spilling, which is a damn shame.
But the only other even remote precedent that comes to mine is Ohio State (led by their own control freak coach) playing two national title games in 2006. Did they shoot their wad v. Michigan? Who knows? They had, by all accounts, agent problems leading up to the Florida game. I assume Alabama will not.
18-22 year-old-kids…
uthookem said:
December 10th, 2009 at 9:04 am
At least it was obvious that we didn’t shoot our wad versus Nebraska.
eskimohorn said:
December 10th, 2009 at 4:08 pm
70% of the time, Bama wins all-the-time.
Capt. Obvious said:
December 11th, 2009 at 12:35 pm
“It’s the SUPER wildhorn!”
I lol’d.