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Looking @ Nebraska Offense

Posted by Scipio Tex on December 2nd, 2009 under Football

It’s champeen-ship time.

I’ll be in Dallas eating $24 nachos and watching Chi-Os cage dance just like the rest of you, but consider this your appetizer.

Throw out everything you saw in College Station because the Huskers are capable of duplicating exactly none of it. A&M ran the ball well against us, but that was a function of the success of their passing game and Jerrod Johnson’s feet. Nebraska’s game plan will be pretty simple: shorten the game by running the ball, play field position, hope for turnovers, and capitalize on Longhorn mistakes with calculated risks. You know – how Jeff Fisher likes to play unless Chris Johnson or Vince Young fucks it up by scoring a touchdown.

It’s very unlikely NU pulls it off unless we retreat into some bizarre Davisian shell or Will Muschamp makes his defense lose their minds again. I find the former somewhat unlikely and the latter un-possible.

First, let’s talk Husker O.

Offense

Their offense has the complexity and careful nuance of David Hasselhoff’s acting. Nebraska started playing better football when they decided that they were going to run every down and throw the ball to Niles Paul down the field or dump it off to a open TE/RB in the flat about every six rushing attempts. Zac Lee no longer loses games for them and they’re protecting their defense. They average only 346 yards per game and 25 ppg, but those numbers are a tad deceptive in that they’re averaging a nearly-respectable 5.5 yards per play. The reason is pace. The most misunderstood aspect of offense in college football.

NU wants to run clock. Ideally, Pelini would like to do away with pre-game stretching, halftime, and most of the 4th quarter. He thinks a football game should last about as long as a Happy Days rerun. Dude yells at his backs and WRs when they run out of bounds on outs or sweeps. Basically, they want to play football with you in a broom closet because they know if they venture outside, they will eventually get exposed. And Mike Sherman may call the cops on them for playing in his front yard.

OL

It all starts with the OL and Nebraska actually fields some decent personnel here despite what their offensive woes suggest.

LT Mike Smith
LG Keith Williams
C Jacob Hickman
RG Ricky Henry
RT Marcel Jones/DJ Jones

The Huskers are inspired by the three-fifths compromise from the Philly Convention in 1787 in that they only count three of their OL as actual human beings. The left side of the OL and the center all range from good to average and Smith, Washington, Hickman can be nasty in the run game despite stacked fronts and NU QBs have only been sacked 15 times this year. Even with Nebraska’s relatively sparse number of passing attempts, that’s a respectable number.

The right side of the NU OL features RG Ricky Henry and the two-headed RT monster of DJ and Marcel Jones. They sort of suck. Nebraska knows this and likes to run 75% of their plays favoring their reliables. My simpleton’s solution is that we don’t align Kindle or Houston by strength or wide side but rather we glue them to the NU leftside personnel. The other possibility would be to play them on the weaker group of personnel, but shade the DL to NU’s OL reliables. Anyway, lots of tinkering we could do to exploit this obvious tendency.

WR/TE

Otherwise known as Niles Paul (33-649, 19.7 avg) and a bunch of random assholes with first names like Menelik (very Children of the Corn) or Curenski. The cool thing about NU’s WRs is that their shitty players have names that suggest their shittiness. It’s kind of satisfying. Like meeting a hot girl and then finding out her name is Vixen Angeltits.

They like to throw it to their TE Mike McNeill (24-237-4) near the goalline and to convert short yardage situations and they’ll flip it out to Helu and Burkhead as well. That’s it folks. That’s the Nebraska passing game. I will add that their WRs are huge (Holt is 6-4 220, Paul is 6-1 215) and are willing blockers. Niles Paul is the “speed guy” because he runs a 4.52.

RB/QB

Roy Helu (193-1057-10td, 5.5 avg) is a stud and I’ve been following him since I first heard about him in the Bay Area in his high school career. He’s not that fast, but he’s quick and nifty for a big back. He runs with power and he’s strong in the hips and thighs. You have to wrap him up. He will take some shots as he’s a taller back and can present a good hit profile when he doesn’t get his pads down. So he gets nicked up quite a bit. Good hands.

Rex Burkhead is now the #2 RB and he’ll spell Helu every few possessions. Great hands out of the backfield and he can throw the ball if Pelini wants to do a little trickeration. He’s the Plano kid that dominated 5A football and had every Plano devotee vowing that Texas could never win another game unless Rex was a Longhorn. Burkhead runs hard and he’s a good athlete so don’t assume he’s just a coach on the field making heady plays and spending long hours in the film room with a firm handshake. He’s not a particular concern for us.

Rex appears to have beaten out fellow RBs Dontrayevous Robinson and Latravis Washington. That’s got to be hard for dudes named Dontrayevous and Latravis to handle. I mean, his name is REX BURKHEAD. He sounds like a doctor on a soap opera.

QB Zac Lee. His numbers aren’t actually that bad (260-158-1931-13-7), but they’re a lie. On the road he’s a 48% passer, averages 5.7 yards per attempt, and doubles his touchdowns with interceptions. Make no mistake, this will be a road environment for him. In response, he is shielded both by NU’s staff and by a number of rape protection laws. He has gone fetal in half of Nebraska’s games and has put together some atrocious stat lines that are covered over by whippings of powerhouses like Florida Atlantic and Arkansas St. He played decently against KU and KSU, I’ll give him.

The guy is waiting for a good excuse to throw the game against us if we let him and 3rd and long should be a death sentence. If he makes a play in the passing game, it’s going to be after some successful runs throwing to an open receiver.

He’s not a running threat either.

Cody Green is and they’ll put him in situationally. He can’t throw, but he’s a powerful runner and will give us some looks in the zone read. He’ll be easy enough to adjust to when he enters the game as he’s a package specific guy.

How Do We Attack Them

Show up. If they score more than 13 points on offense, I’ll eat my hat.

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43 Responses

  1. Damn dude…

    c’mon…they’re doing good

    One thing I will disagree on- I think Burkhead is more dangerous than Helu b/c he’s a tougher runner – not way better or anything ridiculous, but better overall. He’s more patient and pretty explosive when he sees a gap.

    Also- I think Green, as a passer, is underrated as the majority of passes he has thrown this year have hit receivers that couldn’t hold on to hot passes.

    GO BIG RED

  2. I’m not wearing a hat though. But I could get one.

  3. Interesting, huskerwes. Has Rex really had enough meaningful reps to make that judgement? I mean, I saw his play in the Colorado game but we have backs who went over 100 in a game this year that are currrently running 4th team. Of course, all of our backs will run/have ran 4th team at some point in the year.

  4. Right on the reps…Nebraska fans just get over-excited when a white guy does something well…from what we’ve seen of Rex this year, we have high hopes…much love for Helu too.

  5. magnusbleuveigner said:

    December 2nd, 2009 at 11:55 am

    I’ve been impressed with Burkhead as well. I can see why he was an ‘almost offer’ type of guy. He appears to be damn tough and he runs with good vision. Haven’t really seen him at top speed, but judging by the history of white running backs, I’m guessing he’s not a burner.

    I think if Texas had offered, he’d have been a safety for us. A good one.

  6. I agree on the 13 (I was gonna say 14), but they have this habit of returning interceptions and kicks for scores or close to it. They don’t beat Colorado without them, or OU, that’s for sure.

  7. BIH -

    That’s why I stressed “offensive points.”

    magnus -

    He’s a good player. I’m mostly making fun of his recruiting cult that sprung up on every board.

  8. Just FYI on the line, Ricky Henry far & away leads the line in pancakes (and bonheaded penalties, cough, cough). He has developed into NU’s toughest, nastiest blocker without the silly shit that Richie Incognito pulled.

    If you watch the 4th quarter fuck-you we’re-running-every-play-and-you-can’t-do-shit-about-it touchdown drives that shoveled dirt on the hopes of Missouri, Kansas & Colorado, just about all those big gains were over the right side or up the middle.

    Rex has been the clear cut #2 since the season began only missing a few weeks with a broken foot. If Helu shows up fully healthy, he’s the best I-back in the Big 12 – he has a fantastic burst through the hole & into contact, but if his shoulder nags him, he becomes tentative & Burkhead actually becomes the better option.

    The running attack seems to become more effective later in the game when teams load the box with 9 & 10 guys leaving room for the big play if they can burst through. Playing the 2 tight end honestly has been more effective for opposing defesnses.

    All that being said 13 is probably a pretty good guess unless the defense can contribute 14.

  9. Vixen Angeltits, AND you managed to work an obscure and no longer legal section of the Constitution into a column.

    Some of your finest work yet.

    What are your thoughts on our defense mostly just being tired from the last couple of games?

  10. Is Angeltits Danish?

  11. Zac Lee is Eric Crouch without the running ability.

  12. What kind of hat? I always picture you in a beret, twirling your thin mustache while reading Camus at the Palace of Fine Arts.

  13. A lot of this game rests on the first 10 minutes or so. The Texas defense seems to give up points on its first drive every game, except OSU & Mizzou. If Nebraska gets an early score, followed by a couple of Texas 3 and outs, then this will be a game. If we jump on them early, its over.

    This is a team that struggled mightly with Mizzouri and lost to an Iowa St team that played their back up QB and RB. They needed lots of help from Landry Jones and OU’s kicker to beat OU. And they scored only two offensive touchdowns against a CU team that had no reason to get out of bed.

  14. They outgained Iowa St something like 450-180, the ISU offense basically had 1 big play & that was it. Mostly the ISU offense did their impression of Ed Norton in the prison shower in American History X. 8 turnovers pretty much nullified that advantage though..including 3 inside the 5 yard line. OK, I’m getting fucking nauseous again.

    But, holdem, great point on the 1st 10 minutes. IF NU tries to come out throwing as a surprise, I can see a 14-0 Texas lead about 5 minutes in, game, set, match, let the serious ass drinking begin. But if NU gets that early 7-0 lead (unlikely, I know, but fuck it, that’s why we have blogs & boards, right?) and can get a couple three & outs, then the collective psyches of 18-22 year olds start coming into play & anything can happen.

    That’s what I’m telling myself anyway.

  15. I strongly recommend against a Stetson, should things go badly.

  16. i’m somewhat disappointed there was no Shai’Hulud “Dune” reference, re: Helu.

    otherwise, fantastic as always.

  17. Could playing on grass for the first time this year, when we played A&M, have been the reason for our defensive problems? Other than tired legs..

    I hate excuses, was just wondering..

  18. Excellent write-up. A few thoughts, with apologies for the length:

    NU has four guys who could start Saturday for Texas: two kickers, a tight end to be named later, and Suh. Crick, Hickman, Helu and Burkhead are talented enough to see regular snaps for a team like UT, but otherwise this NU squad lives and dies playing assignment football (see under “O’Hanlon, Matt”).

    Plug in almost any other Husker offense from the last 30 years, UT is even odds or perhaps an underdog on Saturday. Zac Lee makes the Big Red nation yearn for the days of Jamal Lord and Monte Christo. HenryJames could beat Lee’s 40 time.

    Sean Watson, the OC, has sometimes seemed willing to sacrifice effectiveness (read “gain yards”) in favor of an offense that looks like the Ice Capades crossed with a hotel room full of Shriners. (UT fans know what that’s like). He has been content to call plays for personnel that Nebraska doesn’t have right now. But in the last couple of games this has started to shift.

    Lately, Burkhead has shown himself a better back than Helu since Helu was injured earlier in the season. Burkhead is a throwback North/South runner, is much better in traffic–which Helu is incapable handling–and does more as a receiver than Helu. A smart OC go with a strong, 2-tight end set, and then would plug Helu in late in the 3rd quarter when some space opens up. Watson will start Helu and he’ll get arm-tackled at the line of scrimmage for three or four possessions before they put Burkhead in. Green won’t see the field unless Lee is hurt (Lee’s knee was banged up in the last game, so who knows how things will play out).

    One thing to keep an eye on: as a punter, Alex Henery has been amazing pinning people down inside the 20. Great direction on his punts. A couple teams have come close to getting the block, so UT might have one here.

    I look forward to your write-up of the defense. Good luck with the spelling.

  19. Could playing on grass for the first time this year, when we played A&M, have been the reason for our defensive problems? Other than tired legs..

    I hate excuses, was just wondering..

    The Cotton Bowl still has the real stuff.

  20. Huck, Cant believe i forgot that.

    Sorry for the stupidity. Carry on

  21. Scip:

    Sorry if you’ve already answered this elsewhere, but why did the aggies’ success come almost exclusively at the expense of UT’s defensive right? I hear that UT was playing more zone than usual, but that wouldn’t explain why so many of their yards came on one side of the field.

  22. Scip, Thanks for the reviews. Do you think Mack Brown controlled the defensive strategy against A&M? I just can’t believe WM would take such a fetal position in not blitzing more and would be content not to pressure Johnson.

    Aside, will Clipper and Brooke be in attendance?

  23. Gideon played on that side of the field maybe? Also, Fuller lined up most of the time on that side.

  24. TaylorTRoom said:

    December 2nd, 2009 at 1:56 pm

    For those hoping that the UT players crack if the game gets tight…note that this team is 24 – 1 since the start of 2008.

  25. I’ve been waiting for these, Scip.

    Thanks.

    31-10 Horns

  26. For those hoping that the UT players crack if the game gets tight…

    I think that ship has sailed, thankfully…

    One of the main reasons last year’s boondoggle angers me so much even yet is that that team just plain deserved better. They were so resilient. Even in the loss, they had everything go wrong that could, in an absolutely electric-crazy atmosphere, and fought their way back to come within a dropped easy catch of pulling it out. I think I’ll remember them for a very long time, very fondly.

    And I think this year’s team shows signs of that. There are lots of teams that would have found a way to fold their tents Thanksgiving night, and we really never came close to that. The Aggies, particularly Johnson, just kept making plays all night long, and the Longhorns just kept answering. That resiliency, the ability to keep their heads when things that had gone right all year long were not going right, I really, really like that. And I think it bodes well for us these next (hopefully) two games…

  27. The absence of asshole Husker posters makes me uneasy. Why do they keep agreeing with everything? They must know something about this game that we don’t.

  28. magnusbleuveigner said:

    December 2nd, 2009 at 3:50 pm

    Husker fans, in my experience aren’t assholes, and if they are, they’re knowledgable assholes. Maybe you’ve had different experiences, but judging by your name, you’re surrounded by assholes. That’s not a slight towards you by the way, just the way it is in SoCal.

  29. magnusbleuveigner said:

    December 2nd, 2009 at 3:53 pm

    What would be the bigger upset? Us over them in ’96, or them over us this year? I think the spread in ’96 was 21, so I know how Vegas answers the question, but that UT offense could score, this Nebraska offense is pathetic.

  30. “For those hoping that the UT players crack if the game gets tight…note that this team is 24 – 1 since the start of 2008.”

    I was thinking about this just the other day. These guys don’t get rattled, even when they fall behind early.

    The Houston Texans could learn a thing or two.

  31. Magnus…I know that Husker fans applaud and offer their women for sex whenever a team beats them in Lincoln, but I assume that somewhere out there a Husker fan is an asshole (akin to our numerous resident AggyRaiderSoonerFans). I want that asshole fan to come over here and tell us how they’re going to mudhole us on Saturday night. Just one fan.

    And, yes, LA makes me want to put a bullet in my head (or in the head of the douche-driving-a-Range-Rover-and-talking-on-the-phone-while-smoking-and-texting) at least thrice daily. There’s no question that one day soon I’m going to die trying to cross at the intersection of San Vicente and Gorham, when all I want is to get a triple shot macchiato from Peets’. Mmmm…Peets.

  32. Based on my system

    1996 win probabilities (going into the game):

    Nebraska – 0.839
    Texas – 0.161

    2009 win probabilties:

    Texas – 0.832
    Nebraska – 0.168

  33. magnusbleuveigner said:

    December 2nd, 2009 at 4:21 pm

    Thanks Stephen Hucking, you’re a witch my man.

    Amazing how close it is. Good thing Zac Lee is no James Brown.

  34. I’ve spent the last 20 minutes trying to figure out how to turn “Vixen Angeltits” into a vanity license plate, but I’m stumped. Need a little help here. Thanks.

  35. The Clipster doesn’t do conference championships. He’s all in for Pasadena

  36. The Clipper also can’t fathom why the hell they would put a stadium in that hellhole Pasadena where the unwashed upper-middles class live in something they call “bungalows”. They could have put it somewhere respectable like Newport Beach.

  37. Scip, you had me at Davisian.

    Also, isn’t Angeltits one of Tiger’s mistresses?

    And Huck, please knock off the parallelism (sic?) shit with the ’96 game. We are too close to Pasadena for your scare tactics.

  38. Helu is not the Kwisatz Haderach

  39. I believe that based on talen differential, that a Nebraska win this year would be the bigger upset. Yes we were 21 point underdogs, and yes Nebraska was loaded, but that Texas team had a lot of talent, and a lot of NFL-level talent.

    Ricky Williams
    Priest Holmes
    Casey Hampton
    Dan Neil
    Bryant Westbrook
    Cedric Woodard
    Phil Dawson

    as well as James Brown, Pat fitzgerald, Chris Carter, Shon Mitchell, Derek Lewis etc.

    Maybe five years from now this matchup will look closer from an overall talent level, but I don’t think so.

  40. spider –

    The matchup A&M exploited over and over again was twins (usually Fuller + whoever) matched up against our 3 on 2 coverage – a corner tight backed by two safeties: Gideon and Brewster. Gideon and Brewster both turned in F grades for the game though they led the team in jumping on a pile after the play.

    The Earl Thomas/Aaron Williams combo got no play except for one perfectly thrown TD pass.

    torre -

    No, that was all Muschamp. Will runs the defense completely and totally.

  41. srr50. great point. Our entire secondary spent time in the NFL.

  42. sportsjesus said:

    December 3rd, 2009 at 11:10 am

    Nowhere is there a good itis.

  43. What would happen if Vixen Angeltits and Logan Steelcock went on a date?

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