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Forecasting the Big 12 South – Oct. 26

Posted by TaylorTRoom on October 26th, 2009 under Football

Texas got a little stronger in the Sagarins, as did Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and in a big way, Texas A&M. Texas Tech and Baylor got weaker. Right now, Texas is in a good position. We are favorites in all of our remaining regular season games, and would be 6 point favorites in Arlington over the highest rated Big 12 North team, Nebraska, who might not even win the Big 12 North. They have two conference losses (TT and ISU), and have a tough remaining game hosting OU. Texas has played three of the schedule’s toughest four games so far. This Saturday night is #2, by the way.

 Oklahoma seems to have righted the ship, but they are not out of the woods yet. They have two decent road games left, at Lincoln and Lubbock, representing two of the schedule’s toughest four games. If they drop one, they finish 8 – 4 and are probably headed to the Holiday or Cotton Bowl.

 Oklahoma State probably isn’t as good as many think. The Georgia win just doesn’t look as good now. Their four toughest games are still to be played, with Texas only being #2. If they win Saturday, they still stand an excellent chance of dropping another couple more. Would they be disappointed with a 9 – 3 record?

 Texas Tech really blew it Saturday, and Texas A&M really grabbed an opportunity. Last week, I had Texas A&M with a 5% chance of winning this game. Where did that come from? Well, my records show that teams that are 22 point underdogs only win 5% of the time. Not only did Texas A&M win, they won by 3 TDs, which is really remarkable.  In the last few years, the Big 12 South games where the spread was that big and the underdog won were-

2004: Baylor over Texas A&M in Waco (OT)

2005: TCU over Oklahoma in Norman

There have been plenty of other big spread games, and in the others the favorite wins.  This was a huge, unexpected outcome, that dramatically changes both teams’ fortunes. Tech now seems headed for a 7 – 5 record. If TAMU finished 6 – 6, I wonder if they will be a more attractive bowl candidate? Texas A&M’s chances of reaching bowl eligibility have skyrocketed from last week, hitting over 32%. It’s still that low because they are serious underdogs at Oklahoma and hosting Texas, while their other three remaining games look close. Warning- Iowa State is better than many thought.

 Baylor will do well to match last year’s 4 – 8 record. Their best chance for a win is at Texas A&M, but I doubt they get to sneak up on the Ags.

Iowa has a nice schedule the rest of the way (only four games).  They host big underdogs Indiana, Northwestern, and Minnesota, and travel to play the Buckeyes.  I figure they have about a 40% chance of finishing 12 – 0.

Texas 90.89 Sag Pts Odds      
ULM 10 66.29 -28.10 W   Expected (sum) 11.5
@Wyo 11 58.35 -29.04 W   Exp. B12 rec 7.53
TT 3 79.67 -14.72 W   root odds 0.90
UTEP 12 60.51 -33.88 W      
CU 8 66.82 -27.57 W   Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
OU 1 89.59 -1.30 W   10 win odds 8.68%
@Mizzou 4 71.84 -15.55 W   11 win odds 33.45%
@OSU 2 78.97 -8.42 0.75   12 win odds 57.86%
UCF 9 66.48 -27.91 0.97      
@BU 7 66.67 -20.72 0.95      
KU 5 77.55 -16.84 0.91      
@TAMU 6 70.23 -17.16 0.92      
               
OU 89.59            
BYU 7 77.77 -15.32 L   Expected (sum) 8.02
Idaho St 12 41.87 -51.22 W   Exp. B12 rec 6.02
Tulsa 10 69.96 -23.13 W   root odds 0.79
@Mia 3 84.21 -1.88 L      
BU 11 66.67 -26.42 W   Bowl Eligible Odds 99.13%
Texas 1 90.89 1.30 L   10 win odds 0.00%
@KU 5 77.55 -8.54 W   11 win odds 0.00%
KSU 8 70.69 -22.40 0.96   12 win odds 0.00%
@NU 2 84.53 -1.56 0.53      
TAMU 9 70.23 -22.86 0.96      
@tt 4 79.67 -6.42 0.73      
OSU 6 78.97 -14.12 0.84      
               
OSU 78.97            
UGA 7 75.82 -6.65 W   Expected (sum) 8.43
Hou 6 76.10 -6.37 L   Exp. B12 rec 5.43
Rice 12 46.62 -35.85 W   root odds 0.41
Gram 11 49.12 -33.35 W      
@TAMU 5 70.23 -5.24 W   Bowl Eligible Odds 100.00%
Mizzou 9 71.84 -10.63 W   10 win odds 8.24%
@BU 8 66.67 -8.80 W   11 win odds 1.14%
Texas 2 90.89 8.42 0.25   12 win odds 0.00%
@ISU 3 73.71 -1.76 0.53      
TT 4 79.67 -2.80 0.61      
CU 10 66.82 -15.65 0.88      
@OU 1 89.59 14.12 0.16      
               
TT 79.67            
ND 10 55.59 -27.58 W   Expected (sum) 7.29
Rice 12 46.62 -36.55 W   Exp. B12 rec 4.29
@Texas 1 90.89 14.72 L   root odds 0.51
@Hou 5 76.10 -0.07 L      
UNM 11 55.39 -27.78 W   Bowl Eligible Odds 93.04%
KSU 7 70.69 -12.48 W   10 win odds 0.00%
@NU 2 84.53 8.36 W   11 win odds 0.00%
TAMU 8 70.23 -12.94 L   12 win odds 0.00%
KU 6 77.55 -5.62 0.76      
@OSU 4 78.97 2.80 0.39      
OU 3 89.59 6.42 0.27      
@BU 9 66.67 -13.00 0.87      
               
TAMU 70.23            
UNM 12 46.89 -26.84 W   Expected (sum) 5.86
Utah St 10 62.88 -10.85 W   Exp. B12 rec 2.86
UAB 11 57.61 -16.12 W   root odds 0.23
Ark 4 80.58 10.35 L      
OSU 6 78.97 5.24 L   Bowl Eligible Odds 31.71%
@KSU 5 70.69 3.96 L   10 win odds 0.00%
@TT 3 79.67 12.94 W   11 win odds 0.00%
ISU 8 73.71 -0.02 0.5   12 win odds 0
@CU 7 66.82 0.09 0.5      
@OU 1 89.59 22.86 0.04      
BU 9 66.67 -7.06 0.74      
Texas 2 90.89 17.16 0.08      
               
BU 66.67            
@WF 7 71.79 8.62 W   Expected (sum) 3.84
Conn 9 75.07 4.90 L   Exp. B12 rec 0.84
NWSt 12 40.52 -29.65 W   root odds 0.15
Kent St 11 57.54 -12.63 W      
@OU 1 89.59 26.42 L   Bowl Eligible Odds 2.44%
@ISU 6 73.71 10.54 L   10 win odds 0.00%
OSU 8 78.97 8.80 L   11 win odds 0.00%
NU 3 84.53 14.36 0.16   12 win odds 0.00%
@Mizzou 5 71.84 8.67 0.24      
Texas 2 90.89 20.72 0.05      
@TAMU 10 70.23 7.06 0.26      
TT 4 79.67 13.00 0.13

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13 Responses

  1. nordberg said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 7:08 pm

    “We are favorites in all of our remaining regular season games, and would be 6 point favorites in Arlington over the highest rated Big 12 North team, Nebraska”

    Seriously? That line might start at 6 but would end up around 20.

  2. Sailor Ripley said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 7:16 pm

    Maybe it was supposed to be 60.

  3. parlin said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 7:36 pm

    Last year’s NU offense with this year’s defense would have made for an entertaining game, at least. But right now the Big12 Championship game looks to be an embarrassment to the North–and, by extension, to the league.

    Zac Lee would have a hard time scoring on Austin High.

  4. outragedcoloadofan said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 7:41 pm

    I just noticed everyone is talking the corncobs and whistling right on past KState.

  5. bob said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 7:53 pm

    Because Kansas State has our number like we have Nebraska’s. Seeing K State in the championship game scares the crap out of me.

  6. raoulduke said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 8:01 pm

    Darth Snyder.

  7. UT wildcatter said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 8:32 pm

    Mighty Maroons got another stud receiver in the pipes, wonder if we can keep this one at home

  8. CrazyJoeDavola said:

    October 26th, 2009 at 10:19 pm

    KSU beat us in 2006 when Colt got hurt and our defense/special teams collapsed.

    In 2007, they beat us because our defense was putrid across the board.

    Things have changed.

  9. LapuLapu said:

    October 27th, 2009 at 2:40 am

    I’d like to see K-State there for a big payback. Coach Boom will take care of that. No fear here.

    Hook’em

  10. johnnymac said:

    October 27th, 2009 at 5:35 am

    Q: who wins the three way tiebreaker out of Aggie, KSU, and Tech?

    A: OU, because Stoops is a genius, you moron.

  11. milksteak said:

    October 27th, 2009 at 5:39 am

    In 2007 we also lost all of our “revenge games.” Maybe the least inspired Texas team of the Oughts.

  12. Mysterious Package said:

    October 27th, 2009 at 5:44 am

    No excuses we lost to K state fair and square. They scare me too. They beat us one year and were so bad they fired their coach. How about them apples

  13. bob said:

    October 27th, 2009 at 8:42 am

    I think the point is there’s always some reason why K State beats us. It’s never the same but there’s always a reason.

    Look at it from the Nebraska/Texas point of view. At various times we beat Nebraska because they fumbled at key moments, had the flu, great call by Mackovic, etc.

    I’m pretty sure we stomp them into the ground but of all the teams in the B12 they would make me the most nervous and not necessarily for rational reasons

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