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Posted by Scipio Tex on October 22nd, 2009 under Football
Our most important road contest to date. Although Faurot ranks somewhere behind Stalingrad and Stadio Azteca in the list of great home field advantages, it is a place that can get rocking if the Tigers create some early confidence and belief. If their fans – separated fom the field by barb wire and a moat patrolled by lampreys – begin urinating in cups and flinging it at our players while brandishing machetes, I may give them the nod over Stadio Azteca and move them to Ohio State fan level.
Given how we’ve played thus far on offense, my guess is that they’ll have that opportunity. To start with confidence, I mean. Not fling wee-wee.
For an amusing and highly informative look at Missouri’s offensive and defensive performance to date vs. our respective units, no one does it better than Atomic Teeth. Actually, I know three people that do it better (ever hear of one Mr Tony Danza?) but that’s pretty good to be in the Top Four of the No One Does It Better Category.
I won’t pretend to be expert on Missouri as my viewing of this team is limited to about one third of the quarters they’ve played but I like my opinions untarnished by experience and context. I also operate from an initial premise that Missouri is responsible for Branson and an irresponsibly large volume of Midwestern folksy bullshit wisdom revealed by men holding suspenders in their thumbs on a rickety porch. So you’re suspect, Mizzourah.
Offense
Gabbert is the anti-Daniel. He is 6-5, 240, athletic, and has a cannon for an arm. He also lacks the general physical structure of a Tolkien character. I’m also not aware of him ever sporting a neck beard. So there’s a lot to like about Blaine Gabbert. What’s not to like about Blaine Gabbert from the Missouri perspective is that he has a bad wheel and he has taken a lot of big hits. Immobility, Average Offensive Line, and Outrageous Success Against Muschamp Defense have very little overlap in a Venn Diagram. Gabbert was heavily praised for his guts in surviving the beating that Nebraska delivered to him in a Goan monsoon, which sounded eerily like the praise heaped upon Randall “Tex” Cobb during the Larry Holmes fight.
Has Missouri ever successfully run the ball in their current offense without a legitimate run threat at QB? On a team not called Southwest Missouri State or Iowa State? They’re relying on Derrick Washington to make something happen and I’ve just not seen it from the guy. Ever. Apparently, he has big games. Rumors of big games. Portent of big games. Scuttlebutt of big games. Lies! Every time I see him on television he is lurching forward awkwardly as if he’d put on his jock backwards, with his left shoe on his right foot and his right shoe worn as a hip pad.
Danario Alexander is a 6-5 215 pound WR stud (44-627-5). Sort of our best and highest aspiration for Dan Buckner. I think he’s quality, a long strider, with a surprising ability to move in and out of routes for a big man. Fantastic hips is how he’d be described by recruiting analysts and/or Harvey Milk. He was a three star no-name from CenTex and say what you will about Gary Pinkel as a coach but the guy consistently seems to make good evaluations – outside of his golf visors.
Jared Perry is their #2 WR and he’s kind of a speed guy (31-493-5). Beyond those two, I don’t think Mizzou’s receiving corps reeks of reliability. They have several other guys with names and statistics and attributes and mothers that love them very much, but they’re not proven. Sort of like a team we know.
The Mizzou OL is OK. I think they hit a talent wall when they encounter a DL with multiple good athletes and they can’t scheme around the pressure. They certainly don’t blow people off of the ball in the running game without Gabbert offering the possibility of a threat.
From a tactical perspective, Missouri won’t be able to foster much of a running game against us with Gabbert’s gimpy gam. That means they’re going to rely on throwing downfield to some nice receivers. What does Texas do very well once you’ve been rendered one dimensional? I will offer one caution to Texas fans though – Gabbert will be throwing the ball 25, 30, 40 yards down the field at a time. I just want to assure Longhorn faithful that this outrageous strategy is technically legal in college football. Vertical passing is exciting, irresponsible, and dangerous and I hope the fad ends soon.
That written, Missouri is inconsistent and seems to rely inordinately on the big play to score. So don’t be surprised when you see the Missouri possessions which will begin with a 32 yard completion to Alexander, followed by a Derrick Washington run for 1, an incompletion, and a sack.
Defense
I like Jaron Baston at NG and Aldon Smith at DE (3 sacks on the year). I’m not blown away by anyone else on their DL and they’ve haven’t done a great job of getting pressure consistently (10 sacks on the year).
Sean Weatherspoon is their acclaimed LB and I’ll be curious to see how he’s used. He has put on 15 pounds since last year and I’m wondering if he’s lost a little quickness? My viewing suggests that he has but I still like him a lot based on what I’ve seen from him historically. They lost Ebner to a knee injury and Luke Lambert gets the snaps at ILB. It’s time to play: Guess! That! Ethnicity! The Missouri media guide opine thusly on Lambert:
Underrated linebacker talent who quietly goes about his business of making plays for the Tiger defense. Is a solid run stopper…
Andrew Gachkar gets the snaps at SLB. Will they play 4-3 personnel against us? I think not.
The Missouri secondary has been surprisingly good given their inexperience although they got folded over by a WR named Hubert from Oklahoma State. Hubert may indeed be good, but if his name were La’Keese Blades-Mustafa it would have been more excusable.
Jasper Simmons is probably their best guy back there and he’s second on team in tackles. Former JUCO. Very active safety with good size and some quicks and he certainly looks the part. Carl Gettis is their most experienced guy and he’s a solid CB with a lot of skins on the wall given that he started for Missouri as a true freshman. I’m from Iowa on the other two guys.
If I were to describe Missouri’s defense in one word it would be: competent. If you asked for another word, I would say: lacks dynamism. And if you said that was two words, I’d probably say, good point. Missouri hasn’t forced too many turnovers (only 2 ints, 6 fr) this year, but they don’t beat themselves and the pace of their offense and passing attempt volume forces them to defend a lot of plays. They’re solid. Like a sort of reinforced balsa wood. Colorado shut us down, so let’s not get cocky.
Special Teams
Very good field goal kicker in Ressel. Nothing else is done particularly well or poorly except for good punt coverage. There may be a play for us to make in the kickoff return game.
Overall
Unless our offense tees up Mizzou with 3+ turnovers, I like us leaving with the win. If we can get a reasonably competent performance from our O with minimal TO’s and the defense can win it’s share of battles against Missouri’s passing game, I certainly like us winning with the cover (-13.5).
Don’t get all whiny if Missouri comes out hitting some plays downfield. Muschamp will adjust, we’ll bring some heat, and the world will be right. We’re 6-0, but we have not yet seen a quality team on the road. Should be an interesting test of our mettle.
UT wildcatter said:
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:11 pm
Just Tell Fozzy not to make a beeline for Earl on the first play from scrimmage and I think we win. What did Earl do to him anyway? Tell him to keep his tackling skills from behind though, Colt needs those
Thujone said:
October 22nd, 2009 at 10:40 pm
Look. Time to wake up and an unleash. Make it happen.
Prevail and ride, mofos.
DocNice said:
October 22nd, 2009 at 11:28 pm
That’s actually a remarkably insightful post for someone that doesn’t regularly watch the Tigers. My only point of difference would be that we have some very good defensive ends. The sack total has more to do with our pass rush strategy than their ability to get into the backfield. The DTs don’t get a big push, so the DE’s tend to not get upfield so the QB doesn’t step forward and scramble. But they certainly can and occasionally do this. All 3 are very fast. Between the DE’s and the LB’s we tend to defend the perimeter run very very well. Your best bet at running is up the gut.
UT wildcatter said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 12:21 am
Well good, cause we got a RB with a gut to run up the gut
CrazyJoeDavola said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:37 am
“Don’t get all whiny if Missouri comes out hitting some plays downfield.”
That’s a shout-out to ransomstoddard, yes?
beowulf said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:04 am
This game has very little to do about Mizzou. It’s all about us.
And most of us are still from Missouri when it comes to Greg Davis and the post-OU Texas offense. Will we get our run game going with a scheme and plays that were successful against the Sooners? And would have been even moreso if the commitment to them from the 2 ton anchor had been more resolute, and the offense had not been such a comedy of errors with penalties and TO’s?
We’ll get those answers appropriately in Missouri.
IF Colt runs an honest zone read, IF we give our OL a bit of help with misdirection plays, IF Colt improvises off schedule plays a la 2008, IF we stretch the field at times with Malcolm and Goodwin, and IF the Wild Bevo died on the floor of the Cotton Bowl last week, we might get to see Garret Gilbert run a couple of series in the 4th quarter.
A Mizzou offense that scored 12 and 17 respectively against a good Nebraska defense and a bad Okie State defense has little chance to score over 17 points against a very good Muschamp Texas defense, barring a calamity or 2 on the offensive side of the ball for the Horns.
Our STs are due this week, too.
We’re flying up and back on the alum charter out of Austin that will include some band members and cheerleaders. I just want everybody happy on the redeye return to Austin.”>)
dedfischer said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 4:32 am
Roddrick Muckleroy, Travis Lewis, Phillip Dillard, Brian Duncan, Joe Pawelek, Antonio Jones, Ryan Reynolds, Patrick Lavine, and Emmanuel Acho make up a list of LBs I would take on my team ahead of Weatherspoon. He’s more of an exploitable liability against spread offenses than an asset. Mizzou should have spun him down to DE this year.
Greg said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:27 am
I have scripted the first half to be identical to the second half of OU.
The corn dogs at Faurot are incredible, I am gonna have 3 or 4 1st half while applewhite reads my queue cards.
It should work bitches.
GD said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 5:32 am
” Gabbert will be throwing the ball 25, 30, 40 yards down the field at a time. I just want to assure Longhorn faithful that this outrageous strategy is technically legal in college football”
Complete bullshit. Football is a game played on a 10×53 yard horizontal grid, Mr Smarty-pants Man. One summer in Denver, while being tutored on the nuances of zone blocking by Mike Sherm.. er, Shanahan, I was also schooled in the fine art of passing by the Colorado Avalanche. Any pass over ten yards is a blue line violation, Mr Dumbass. Get your facts straight!!!!
Vasherized said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:13 am
Wes Kemp only has 13 catches on the season but he’s averaging 20 ypc.
I’m talking to you, Blake Gideon.
Mizzou has a really young team — half their two deep is freshman and sophs. Not generally a statistic that bodes well against a team like Texas. I do really like Aldon Smith. He’s a phyical freak that still seems to be learning the position a la Sergio 2008.
If they counted Weatherspoon’s tackles on his fellow defenders he’d lead the nation in tackles. His radar is off a bit this year. I blame his Twitter addiction.
Obviously this game would be more competitive with a healthy Gabbert. As such, I see a 20 pt win.
Nice preview, Scipio. You need to see Azteca in person someday. Don’t worry, you can pass for a Mexican.
Hiphopopotamus said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:26 am
dedfischer: Completely agree. For as many tackles as that guy makes, it seems like he runs himself out of every other play.
Trips Right said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 6:54 am
I like it when you like a game I’m betting on. It usually bodes well for my pocket book. I also have a propensity to chortle at a good Hobbit joke. Perhaps it’s because midgets, in general, make me laugh. So thanks for that. Good analysis.
Phenomenal Smith said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 7:02 am
Mizzou wins going away.
By that I mean after the game is over, Mizzou’s players will get off the field faster.
Good preview, Scip. I had a bad feeling before last week’s game and a bad feeling tihs week. I am actually looking past the Horns to get an early start on worrying about the game in Boulder.
Bob in Houston said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 7:22 am
“Technically legal.”
Yeah, sure.
I bet you can find some rule that allows college basketball guards to shoot jump shots, too.
uthookem said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 7:38 am
“Immobility, Average Offensive Line, and Outrageous Success Against Muschamp Defense have very little overlap in a Venn Diagram. ”
My engineering degrees appreciate this. Kudos!
spider said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:10 am
Mizzou weather for Saturday:
Day: Partly cloudy. High in the upper 50s. West wind around 10 mph in the morning shifting to the southwest in the afternoon.
Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Low in the mid 40s. South wind around 10 mph.
spider said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:14 am
I know three people that do it better (ever hear of one Mr Tony Danza?) but that’s pretty good to be in the Top Four of the No One Does It Better Category.
ahem
Gene Claude said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:28 am
Scip, brilliant and very close to spot on. I started a long rejoinder and decided to just breathe life into it, here:
http://atomicteeth.fantake.com/2009/10/23/tigers-horns-an-upset-waiting-to-happen/
Phenomenal Smith said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:29 am
A Mizzou offense that scored 12 and 17 respectively against a good Nebraska defense and a bad Okie State defense has little chance to score over 17 points against a very good Muschamp Texas defense
The 12 points is irrelevant. Nothing about that game matters. It was an abomination on the sport of football and should be stricken from the record books.
The 17 points is relevant. Mizzou moved the football easily in the first half and scored those 17 points. Then we collapsed like a gut-punched girl scout.
lowery said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:49 am
Those girl scouts always fold like that, and never see it coming. I blame parenting.
Scipio Tex said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 9:28 am
DocNice:
Thanks for your thoughts. If Colt can get a nice pocket, I warn you that he’ll hit 3 yard hitches with impunity.
beowulf:
Congrats on your cushy flight, Posh Spice.
dedfischer:
Regarding Weatherspoon, I noticed you mentioning similar thoughts earlier and that’s what prompted me to watch Weatherspoon more carefully. Like Vasherized, I blame the energy depleting activity of Twitter.
Assorted Atomic Teeth Missouri Rabble:
Thanks for your thoughts. It seems I’m not too wildly off. I’ll respond to your post on your site. Generally when I’m in agreement with an opponent that signals something wildly unexpected will occur. Derrick Washington rushing for 251 ought to cover it.
spider:
It’s a scientific fact that cool weather makes Colts frisky. I hope he can overcome his flu, altitude, thumb, flu again, upper respiratory infection, pressing for the Heisman and play well for us. Niiiiiiiiice Carly Simon clip.
Horncasting said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 9:28 am
Ross Taylor at Rock M Nation says Ebner is expected to play on Saturday.
Just how bad is Gabbert’s injury. Is he still a threat on the zone read and scrambling?
Scipio Tex said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 9:34 am
Horncasting:
Unless he’s had some really good physical therapy this week, I don’t see him presenting much of a zone read or scrambling threat. Very Jim Plunkett.
Who knows – maybe they shoot him up with anti-inflammatories and speed and he runs around like a gazelle.
La’Keese Blades-Mustafa said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:25 am
Don’t be knockin’ Hubert.
ghingus said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 10:45 am
I’m a Mizzou fan. You guys know your football. Very accurate assessment of our team.
dasmithjones said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:06 am
“I like my opinions untarnished by experience and context”
That is some vintage Scipio Tex! I am adding this to my lexicon and will remember you fondly for it.
Honorable mention: “Immobility, Average Offensive Line, and Outrageous Success Against Muschamp Defense have very little overlap in a Venn Diagram. ”
Thanks again Scip! (amazing that this site is free)
Gene Claude said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:10 am
Derrick Washington going for 251 would be several orders of magnitude more shocking than Michael Bishop winning the Nobel prize in chemistry.
Our spread offense is just not very conducive to scrambling. So many of the plays are quick read/release plays. He’s mobile enough to keep plays alive. I suspect only to have them end in even grislier deaths than that with which they were first threatened.
milksteak said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:20 am
(amazing that this site is free)
Unless you count the payment exacted in flesh and tears from the Laotian lady-boy kept in the BC HQ basement. Just saying.
Cincohorn said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 11:43 am
I thought those passes were legal only if you got the other team’s prior consent?
BEHorn said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 1:05 pm
The definition of “antithesis”: Chalky McDutch vsLa’Keese Blades-Mustafa.
ghostofagroundgame said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 1:09 pm
Cincohorn –
It gets confusing. You CAN throw the ball over 30 yards in the air. But it cannot go more than 5 yards down the field. It’s better if you wait and make that throw after taking a 7 step drop and giving your receiver time to really settle into his out route.
all the best,
Colt
Blueshorn said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 1:43 pm
I’m thinkin’ we’ll be okay in this one if we can survive the surge.
HomeSlice said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:14 pm
Considering the way Fozzy kept aiming out of bounds against OU, I’m surprised he didn’t take out more sideline-standing Horns than just Earl. In fact, Fozzy earned more than one Major butt-chewing.
Gene Claude said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:18 pm
I thought Earl was dead on that play, thought he hit his head on the cart. Biggest hit of the game.
ghostofagroundgame said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Man, with Fozzy’s injury history I am totally OK with him running out of bounds and not taking unnecessary punishment. But that Earl thing scared the hell out of me. As far as I’m concerned Earl, and probably A. Williams, are the two best propsects for being top 10 NFL picks on our entire team.
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
If Earl was 6′ or even 5′11″ then yeah, The only reason Earl isn’t leaving after this year is his height. His combine height is going to be 5′9″. He’s going to wreck shit in the 40 and somebody is going to fall in love with his Blain Bishopness. Late first.
Agreed with A. Williams as a top 10 pick.
I think L. Houston compares favorably to Tyson Jackson who went third. Lamar is going to be a great 3-4 end for a long time. He’ll probably go late first though. Maybe early 2nd.
Horncasting said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:48 pm
Is Earl going to get taller next year?
ghostofagroundgame said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:50 pm
Earl is a little short, but he is a FOOTBALL PLAYER. And a really fast safety. Which is a temporarily in-vogue late top-10 pick. But you’re probably right about the size.
Houston is under-appreciated, but will be a really solid pro. I hope he goes first day. I still think Tampa Bay is going to discover, at some point, that they have a real gem in Roy Miller and that he was a steal in the 3rd round. Houston will be a similar steal for someone.
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 2:58 pm
Lamar is a lock for the first day and will probably be the 4th tackle taken after Suh, McCoy, and Terrance Cody.
Like a said, I think he moves into a 3-4 end role at the next level. I expect that dude to put up some damn good combine numbers. That coupled with his strong citizenry (DUI notwhistanding) make him a lock to go 1st or 2nd round.
Houston is under appreciated by many, but not scouts. They knew who he was last year. Players from a school the size of UT don’t get lost in the shuffle if they have game. While I love Roy, Lamar is a better prospect because of versatility.
ghostofagroundgame said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 3:12 pm
You may be right. I just love Roy Miller. A big, fat, bad-ass, mean nose-tackle just warms my heart like almost nothing other than a fast safety with zero self-regard.
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 3:18 pm
We’re in the same boat on Roy and Earl. Love’m both. Another option that crosses my mind is Earl maybe playing corner. Like you said, and I’ve always thought, he’s fast as polished steel. I could definitely see him spinning to corner for his first few years and then moving to safety, kind of like Ronnie Lotts career arc.
dedfischer said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 7:24 pm
Dude is jogging about half the time, especially if the play is outside of him.
Sugarpants said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:42 pm
I believe Tampa Bay has already, in fact, realized that Roy was a steal in the 3rd round. He’s getting a ton of PT and making plays. He’s got 14 tackles and a sack this season, which ain’t bad for a guy who is not starting.
How come everyone wants to know who “You’re So Vain” is about and no one wants to know who “Nobody Does it Better” is about? Seems illogical. Even if it’s a dude I would like to buy that man’s book.
Sugarpants said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 8:43 pm
To put that in context, Albert Buttersworth has 17 tackles and 2 sacks.
yojimbox said:
October 23rd, 2009 at 9:02 pm
The hell you say. People still throw footballs past 10 yards more than twice a game? I don’t believe it!
Gene Claude said:
October 24th, 2009 at 7:49 am
HEY! THIS IS A LOOK AT MIZZOU FOOTBALL!
ghostofagroundgame said:
October 24th, 2009 at 10:09 am
Sorry Gene — read your preview post and really enjoyed, by the way.
java said:
October 24th, 2009 at 5:45 pm
‘Scuse me, but ‘Holy shit!’ I like this ‘new’ offense, or blocking scheme, or Colt, or whatever. Did think it was funny when Mack had to call a timeout when Colt was confused when Kirk and Chiles came on the field.
Just one question, why does anyone schedule us for their homecoming? Idoits!
Lovin it, and Hook ‘em!