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Matchup Preview: Texas Longhorns @ Missouri Tigers
Posted by Huckleberry on October 20th, 2009 under Football
Click here for the adjusted stats matchup preview. All stats referenced below will be adjusted stats.
Folks, this game is going to cause additional heartburn for fans of beautiful offense. My faith in our ability to quickly and successfully install the New Longhorn Offense is unsurprisingly low. It’s hard to believe, but in one year the Big 12 has gone from the WAC on steroids to the SEC on crack. The 2009 Missouri Tigers are currently the #81 offense in the nation in yards per play exactly one year after being #8 in the same measure. As I have mentioned over on Atomic Teeth before, their 2008 defense was underrated given the fact that they, too, had to play in a Big 12 conference with plenty of good offenses and even more referees completely unwilling or unable to call penalties on an offensive lineman. And that unit has stepped up even more this year, going from #23 in defensive YPP last year to #13 so far this year. This year’s defense is especially stingy against the pass, giving up only 4.41 yards per called pass play.
Texas, on the other hand, now appears to be better at running the football than throwing it after the Davis Dallas Debacle. Of course, it’s all relative as Texas ranks #36 in yards per rushing play and #47 in yards per passing play for a smooth overall #39 ranking in yards per play. This should line up as a win if Texas is willing to run the ball and let our defense dictate the flow of the game. Gabbert’s nice start protecting the ball has vanished as soon as he started facing good defenses. The stats say the passing games should be roughly a wash in terms of yardage generated but the Longhorns should be able to turn the ball over on defense three times as often as they give it up. Given the prediction that the Tigers won’t be able to run the ball much at all – the stats call for a 1.40 average yardage on called running plays for the Tigers – and the Tigers will be forced into passing situations that further put their possessions at risk.
In special teams play, Missouri should have a slight edge in the punting game as Texas’ punt coverage unit has been very disappointing after finishing #3 in the country in net punting average last year. But there may be a big problem for the Tigers if they are indeed able to score some points. Their kickoff unit allows an average starting field position of around the 32-yard line while the Texas return team averages a start at the 37-yard line. Given both numbers’ relation to the average result in college football this year and the stats call for the Longhorns to start their average drive after a Mizzou kickoff right around their 40-yard line.
It doesn’t seem like there should be any reason for Texas to lose this game as long as they call it reasonably from the sideline. So no problem, right?
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Trips Right said:
October 20th, 2009 at 6:28 am
That’s a terrific analysis of the game. If I can count on Texas getting 3 turnovers to Mizzou’s 1, I’d have to bet on Texas covering the 13.5. I also think we found something in the running game last Saturday. The thing that makes this a no play for me is the angle. Really tough roadie to play after your jihad game.
The General said:
October 20th, 2009 at 7:12 am
13.5 is a lot of points for a team that has a brand new offense.
Vasherized said:
October 20th, 2009 at 8:37 am
Gabbert can’t seem to get healthy. If he’s still running around on a bum wheel, his talents are quickly neutralized. Since Mizzou doesn’t exactly have a running game to fall back on I don’t see where they come up with points against our defense.
I’d lay the points. Texas is typically strong the week after the Okie jihad, regardless of the result.
It’s inevitable we’ll see things we should have seen against OU that work within the flow of our offense with a logical progression and efficiently chew up yards. It takes the threat of prison rape to bring Greg Davis out of his fuzzy warm birth coccoon. Let’s hope Gerald McCoy and/or Will Muschamp got the message across.
Scipio Tex said:
October 20th, 2009 at 9:38 am
Gabbert losing his wheel is a tough thing for the Mizzou O. They won’t be able to run the ball without a run threat at QB.
Gabbert has a great arm, so I expect some downfield completions to Danario Alexander, but their offensive output should be largely episodic – a 35 yard pass play followed by two incompletions and a sack. I’m having trouble seeing them scoring north of 17 points.
n-ea said:
October 20th, 2009 at 10:58 am
“…more referees completely unwilling or unable to call penalties on an offensive lineman.”
Does anyone have the stats the following Texas 2008 and 2009 stats?
1) Holding and Chop Block Penalties
2) False Starts
3) Times Sacked
4) The Number of Negative Yardage Plays (not including sacks)
MU_LAX said:
October 20th, 2009 at 10:59 am
Well, obviously I hope I’m wrong but I think Texas probably wins this by 17 points or so. MU has some pretty good talent, but it’s very young talent and we’re finding new and exciting ways to self-destruct each week. Last week it was dropped passes, field position & the some of the most biased officiating I’ve ever seen. After the game we’ll probably feel like we played pretty well and wonder how we lost by 3 scores again. My guess for this week’s random implosion is that you guys will probably have multiple kick/punt returns for touchdowns (just because this hasn’t been a problem whatsoever for us to this point) & once again the officiating will go heavily against MU.
Hope it’s a good game and that we put up more of a fight than last year.
CurrentLonghornStudent said:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
We saw what Ndamukong Suh did to Gabbert’s protection. Now let’s see what the Texas DL does…it’s gonna be a feast for the Horns. Muschamp has to love this matchup.
n-ea said:
October 20th, 2009 at 12:37 pm
Ahh, the preemptive officiating excuse. FYI, # of penalties and penalty yardage for this decades TX/MU Games:
2008 – Tex 8-80; Mizz 6-61
2005 – Tex 14-135; Mizz 5-31
2004 – Tex 7-51; Mizz 3-29
Officials make bad calls every game. Sometimes they go in your favor, sometimes not. Most of the time the bad calls even out. When the calls are a bit lopsided, a great team overcomes that adversity.
houstonearler said:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:23 pm
“2005 – Tex 14-135; Mizz 5-31″
The officiating in favor of Mizzou that day was just criminal
magnusbleuveigner said:
October 20th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
The td that Ramonce had that day was beautiful.
We cover the points. I’d get it now, before it moves upwards.
This is the perfect game to get us ready for Ok St. Not necessarily match-up wise, but environment and talent wise.
I hope we can actually see our offense play well early in the game before defense or st’s breaks it open.
Gene Claude said:
October 20th, 2009 at 3:08 pm
Huck, the one thing I would say about the yards per play on offense is that if you remove the Nebraska game (and I think projection systems should have a force majeure clause indicating that games played in hurricanes should be removed), the offensive per play rates take a huge jump…and the defensive ones a huge jump down.
Still, it has hardly been an offense of beauty. Little ability to sustain drives, lots of big pass plays.
I see lots of boring/bad offense, with UT winning the turnover and field position battles, leading to a relatively easy, albeit not high scoring, win for the Horns.
trkhorn said:
October 20th, 2009 at 9:32 pm
I get the feeling our offense right now is like a rubber band that has been pulled back as far as it can logically go. We already know about our defense. I would not want to be Missouri this week.
LapuLapu said:
October 20th, 2009 at 10:23 pm
Our defense should win this game and I still don’t know how to address this mid season new offense. I’m just shaking my head.
exuLt said:
October 21st, 2009 at 10:10 am
I’m almost ready to say to go with the under, even tho the point spread may be low due to the particularly dyfunctional strategizing last week. I’m now thinking that Greg’s definition of exciting offense and filled stadium revenue is to keep it competitive for as long as possible, with a 3 point differential the ideal conclusion. At least the part that he can control.