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“Wait ‘Til Next Year”

Posted by CloseToJumping on October 19th, 2009 under Football

It feels good to not be whining that refrain right now. I remember the bitterness in thinking that during the ATM run while they were cheating more than married strippers. Oddly, I never really thought it during the OU run from 2000-2004. They beat our heads in during 2000 and it shocked all of us. I don’t remember anyone not feeling a sense of sad awe at the way they beat our ass in that game. By 2004’s 12-0 debacle – a giftwrapped, solidified fart, fit for eating and considered a delicacy in the culture of Greg Davis’ native land, Port Neches – I just figured we’d simply never beat OU again, with or without Vince Young.

Obviously, things change.

Now that OU is on the other end of the beatings, again, they’ve developed the ever common college football plea of “Wait til next year, whorns!!!!!”. While obviously not original, given that ATM has belched this chorus for the majority of their existence, it certainly is fulfilling and humorous to hear from OU fan.

What’s even funnier is that the majority of OU fans really believe this line. It’s all over their boards. I enjoy soonerfans.com. I visit there regularly and read what sooner fans are actually thinking. They have some good, informed posters there and then they have the majority of hillbillies that you’d anticipate from their boards. I can’t find a poster over there right now that doesn’t think that they’re going to pummel us into submission next season.

Why they think that is interesting. In looking at the rosters, I am not sure what they’re so bullish about, except the Texas departures. They’ve apparently failed to review what they’re actually losing as well. So let’s take a glance for them.

OU Loses:

Offense:

Bradford
Eldridge
Clapp
Brown
Murray (a Junior that the OU fans even believe will be leaving)
Trent Williams
Adron Tennell (not sure this is a loss in our favor)

Defense:

McCoy (a Junior, but likely top 10 pick. Surely no one is stupid enough to stay with that in mind, right?)
English
Clayton
Reynolds
B Jackson

Could be leaving:

Travis Lewis ( a redshirt Soph, again, OU fan considers him gone. I am skeptical here.)
Beal
Franks

Texas Loses:


Offense:

McCoy
Shipley
Ulatoski
Hall
Tanner


Defense:

Muckleroy
Houston
Kindle
Alexander
Beasley

Could Lose:

?? I honestly can’t think of anyone.

Landry Jones vs. Garrett Gilbert

They often follow their logic about next year with the concept that Jones will be better because he’s got experience and Gilbert does not. I guess through a few games this has some practicality, but this seems faulty as a source for optimism. Specifically, we’ve not seen anything from Jones to think he outclasses Gilbert in any real physical manner. He certainly doesn’t seem to have Gilbert beat in the poise area.

How about the schedule?

This has little to do with Texas, but applied across the canvas of their program, perhaps next year provides enormous hope in general.

Perhaps not.

Air Force, Florida State, and Cincinnati accompany Utah State in the non-con. That isn’t murderer’s row, but it isn’t a cakewalk, either. They also get an improved Missouri at Columbia.

What do you think? Do you feel like that’s going to be a much improved ballclub? Do you expect anything other than another streetfight in Dallas?

It’s early, yeah, but what the hell.

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25 Responses

  1. uthookem said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 9:38 pm

    I said we’d win this year by 25. Davis and I were off by 22.

    I’ll say we win by 12 next season.

    Hook ‘em!

  2. Trips Right said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 9:39 pm

    Some talk about Earl Thomas going pro. I don’t know if it holds water, but safeties 5-10 typically don’t go very high in the draft.

    As for the macro of your post, we’re in their heads in a big way. Unless they severely out talent us, I don’t see how anyone can chalk up a win for the Sooners against Texas. I think the pendulum has swung, and next year we stomp on their throat on the way to five straight.

  3. trkhorn said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 9:55 pm

    I don’t get why they’re so excited. 2010 begins a whole new chapter in this series and new leaders will have to emerge for both teams. With Muschamp the D won’t be dropping off much if any although losing Houston certainly hurts; if GG is as advertised(it would seem he is) then the advantage should be ours.

    We have 4 out of 5 which finally washes the shit taste of 2000-2004 out of our mouths; wouldn’t it be sweet in our lifetimes to put a 1960s-type DKR run on the bastards, accompanied by Big 12 hardware to boot?

  4. Scipio Tex said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 9:56 pm

    They also lose Brian Simmons on the OL.

    Beyond the slam dunk Gerald McCoys of the world, so much of figuring out who goes pro is dependent on their interest in school, their willingness to be a 4th round pick rather than optimize the following year, financial situation, drug-dealing, child support etc.

    I have no insight into Franks, Lewis & Beal on those matters but I can tell you that all of them could be drafted. Like you, I consider Lewis the least likely. Franks has the feel of a guy that would declare early just because, but I have no data to back that up beyond my own wild ass guessing.

    The secondary would take a step down without both CBs if Franks went pro. I think their offense will be solid and I like their replacements at RB. I don’t see why the WRs wouldn’t get better and I like Broyles a lot.

    As for the good guys:

    Our offense was irrelevant to the outcome last Saturday, so I’m not sure why I’d even care to dwell there unless I wish to taunt myself with the notion that we would use grown up versions of Timmons, Buckner, Malcolm Williams, Goodwin effectively. Gilbert won’t have the benefit of a true road game (@ Rice) before OU and that’s a shame.

    Our defense is where it gets rough for OU. We’ll have the best secondary in college football next year. Paired with it will be about 10 high quality DL, the best returning starters at LB we’ve had in years, and special teams that may actually get better.

    And they’re going to waste us? Please.

  5. bigdukesix said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 10:13 pm

    I think Beal goes for OU.

    Unless they severely out talent us

    They won’t. They’re losing quite a lot of talent, and we’ve outrecruited OU over the past four years. They’ve brought in some studs, but top to bottom our classes have had the clear edge.

  6. Lowery said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 2:00 am

    Walking back to the car in 2000, rain soaked and cold. Felt like I’d just been forced to watch a childhood pet tortured, and then put down. “Sad awe” is a perfect description.

    It’s nice to have proof that in fact, the world was not ending back then.

  7. steve atwater said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 3:39 am

    If Collins and Scott both return for next year chalk up another one for Texas.

  8. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 4:40 am

    If we’re going to use the roster attrition method, then I’ll jump in this game. Wait til next year, whorns!!!!!

  9. TaylorTRoom said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 4:52 am

    Back in the ’80s, Bill James noted in his Baseball Abstract annuals that good organizations understood the concept of “replacement level” players. A “replacement level” player was a non-star who could perform adequately- i.e. minimal boneheaded plays, tolerable batting and fielding. His point was that these guys were always available through a cheap trade, waived veteran pickup, etc. There is no excuse for a team to have guys out there performing below that level.

    It’s different in college sports, where you have to recruit your players, but Texas and OU should be able to always have replacement-level players available. Neale Tweedie was a replacement-level guy. Neither a dominating blocker nor an accomplished receiver, nobody was going to gameplan for him. However, he did have value on the offense, because opponents did have to gameplan for his teammates, leaving him opportunities. The 2005 MNC team had four replacement-level starters, by my count, in the starting lineup. The 2009 CU Buffaloes probably have 20.

    When I look at departing players, I try to count the difference-makers, figuring we can replace the other guys. For OU, I see the difference-makers leaving as Bradford (if he leaves), Murray, Williams, McCoy (if he leaves), English, Clayton, and Jackson. I don’t know if Reynolds still counts, since their ace strategy against UT was to remove him from the game.

    From Texas, the key losses will be McCoy, Shipley, Ulatoski (?), Houston, Kindle, and Muckelroy. I think the others are replacement-level.

    BTW, what made the RRS interesting this year was the number of lower-than-replacement-level guys in the game. Kindle and Houston were lining up against guys who would back up Greg Smith at Texas, and Greg Smith couldn’t carry Neale Tweedie’s jock.

  10. Turn the page, Fred said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 5:46 am

    Realistically, our current OL has 100+ starts among them, and you see what product they’re putting out?

    Now take a look at our projected OL next season….

  11. The General said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 7:02 am

    Fred,

    Our O-Lines get worse with more starts, so next year should be a good line year.

    It is going to be a defensive slugfest next year won by the team that makes the fewest mistakes on offense. To me, that sounds like a coin toss.

    I think we will feel the loss of Muckleroy, Kindle, and Houston more than we anticipate even though they have talented replacement players behind them.

  12. ransomstoddard said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 7:29 am

    The ease of transition between the McCoy years and the Gilbert years will depend heavily on a change in offensive philosophy.

  13. CptBackfire said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 7:57 am

    What about the possibility of Bradford sticking around another year?

  14. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 7:59 am

    Ruffin will pay the price for Sentencich’s JUCO strategy next season. I’ve already mentally prepared myself for Jackson Richards and Jeremy Barr to roll out as our starting DEs. However, this is a significant upgrade in replacement talent over past years for us, especially on the defensive side of the ball. We’ve got a plan in place for the OL, Ed Britton, Richard Jones, Jamar Wall and Marlon Williams, but we’re going to have to roll out some freshmen at DE unless Ruff spins Fehoko down to end.

  15. magnusbleuveigner said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 9:56 am

    DE’s Acho/Jones, Okafor
    DT’s Randall, Howell ( I expect Bible to fight for a lot of minutes)
    LB’s Acho, Robinson, Norton (with a medical rs)
    DB’s Thomas, Chykie, A. Williams, Scott

    I don’t see much, if any drop off next year. Where depth might be thin, like LB and DT, we have absolute studs coming in as true freshman to log minutes. Our classes have been better than OU, our defensive coaching is better than OU, I like our chances for the forseeable future.

    We’ll be pre-season top 5 on defense alone.

    Hopefully with Gresham’s and Bradford’s injury woes, any OU player with professional hopes bails.

  16. ponderos said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 2:03 pm

    Beal’s gone, let’s not kid ourselves.

    Ryan Reynolds is applying for a medical. The NCAA has been pretty liberal in handing those out and his dozen or so knee surgeries might qualify.

    You’re probably right that Pooh Tennell leaving is addition by subtraction.

    On Landry vs. Gilbert, not sure how you can evaluate anything at all on Gilbert. Landry has at least been in game situations where something is on the line and he’s hasn’t just been in a mop-up role with the second and third teamers. Gilbert may turn out to be pretty good, but there’s no way of knowing that right now. We at least know what we have with Landry currently: a kid who plays pretty well for a redshirt freshman behind a pretty bad OL. No, he doesn’t have the poise of the Heisman winner who was in front of him, but nobody expected him to, either. He makes freshman mistakes, though, because … he’s a freshman.

  17. Trips Right said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 3:14 pm

    And, the whistling past the graveyard begins. Bob Stoops knew this was his last best chance at a title. OU’s defense will be a shell of what it was this year, and the offense will enjoy little if any sort of upgrade.

    Texas will have a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, but the defense will be experienced, well coached, and nasty. It’s tough envisioning an ou win next year. Stoops needs to make some fundamental changes just as Brown did a few years ago, or he’ll find himself on the hot seat.

  18. CloseToJumping said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    I don’t see Reynolds getting approved. It isn’t a slam dunk, i mean the UT game was #5 for OU last year, wasn’t it? As well, the NCAA has been passive aggressive about its dealings with OU lately. This is an easy path towards continuing that.

    That considered, I have no problems with Reynolds coming back. He’s slow and does little. He’s good for a play or two each game. Whether that’s due to injuries or what have you, I’ve got no opinion.

    I am glad to hear that Beal is leaving. What is your take on Lewis, ponderos? I can’t see that guy going high, but I like him as a player and could see him being a smaller but productive NFL player in the right scheme.

    I forgot to mention in the original post that people feel like Broyles could also be gone. I would be surprised by that one too. Do you have thoughts on this one as well?

  19. ponderos said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    Ambivalent on Reynolds, CTJ. He really is the proverbial “coach on the field,” but my lord you can’t disguise the fact that he’s a serious liability in pass coverage. If he doesn’t get that sixth year, I’d wholeheartedly endorse his coming back as a graduate assistant, and I think most every other OU fan would, too.

    Have heard rumors about Lewis, but he’s a wait and see. Curtis Lofton was a guy that a lot of us thought made a mistake by coming out early, mainly due to his size, and he’s tearing it up at the next level.

    That’s the first I’ve heard of anything like that about Broyles. Prolly just WAG interwebs rumor.

  20. NateHeupel said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 10:00 pm

    I’ll take a crack at a response.

    Landry Jones v. Garrett Gilbert:
    First things first, do remember that anything you say about Garrett Gilbert is no more than a WAG. How exactly do we know Gilbert has any poise whatsoever? What high-pressure situations has he been under as a college QB?
    Second, I believe this site has frequently and thoroughly proven the fact that a player’s biggest leap in improvement is from his first year to his second. Landry Jones will most likely be playing the rest of the season as the starter.
    Last, Jones stopped getting all the first team reps prior to the Miami game, and he stopped getting any immediately afterward. Bradford’s first year, he stopped splitting 1st team reps about a week into fall camp. I’d be cautious how you judge the guy until he gets to officially claim the starting spot next year. He’ll get all the 1st team reps, and that’s huge for a QB to develop timing with his WRs. UT murdered people with that timing last year.

    Guys leaving early:
    Curtis Lofton is a horrible, and way too frequent, comparison for Travis Lewis. Lofton had nothing else to learn at OU. He was near-perfect from a technical standpoint, his football IQ on the field was off-the-charts, and he wasn’t going to get any taller or faster. Lofton was the primary catalyst in 2007 for the wins against Texas (remember the fumble at the 5?) and Missouri. He changed games on his own.
    Lewis is not even close to Lofton’s level of technical skill, he doesn’t show a high football IQ on the field, and at what point has he changed a game with his play? Lewis still has a great deal to gain through playing time and experience. Right now, he’s still getting by on his RB-level athleticism.

    Broyles needs a full year healthy as the #1 man unless he goes nuclear for the rest of this year (unlikely). Right now, he’s too much of a gamble. Guys like Larry Fitzgerald can go after two years in college. They are the exception, not the rule.

    Beal is almost certainly gone. He’s having a season that usually results in a late 1st round/early 2nd round pick. If you want a perfect comparison to Curtis Lofton, this is the guy. What he needs to improve his draft stock, he can’t learn in college. His football IQ, technique, and game skills are about maxed out.

    I agree that Franks has that “I’m already out of here” feel about him. The problem is that no single underclassman in the Big 12 has done more to hurt his draft stock.

    magnus, anytime you say ridiculously dumb shit like “we have absolute studs coming in as true freshman to log minutes” at any position that isn’t WR or RB, punch yourself in the balls. That’s ALWAYS a bad thing. Punch yourself twice if it’s at DT.

  21. koufax said:

    October 20th, 2009 at 10:09 pm

    the wildcard in all this is if Earl Thomas decides he wants to go pro.

  22. Soonervino said:

    October 21st, 2009 at 8:23 am

    Isn’t the 2010 season the last year before a rookie salary cap? Thought I heard that. If so, look for anyone who’s crew has them believing they can play on Sunday to come out, regardless of what class they are in. That coupled with a potential lockout as the CBA is renegotiated and the 2010 draft looks like a free-for-all as far as underclassmen is concerned.

    And I think it’s a bit early to declare ‘we will crush you’. Isn’t this the same site that had UT winning by 20 last week?

    Finally, if Dumbass Davis has Colt running basically naked boots with 2 minutes left in an already decided game much more, you may see plenty of Gilbert. I left at about 1:30 left, so I didn’t see Beal’s supposed cheap shot, but why was Colt running the ball at that point in the game anyway? Doesn’t make the hit right, but if you want to be pissed about something, look to those play calls.

  23. Nimitz said:

    October 21st, 2009 at 10:01 am

    “Finally, if Dumbass Davis has Colt running basically naked boots with 2 minutes left in an already decided game”

    Don’t come on this site and bad-mouth our fucking offensive coordinator!!!
    That’s our job and we take it seriously..

  24. houstonearler said:

    October 21st, 2009 at 10:56 am

    Usually you have to miss the majority of two seasons to get a medical shirt.

    Reynolds missed one full season — 2006.

    He played in half (six) of OU’s twelve scheduled games in 2008 before getting hurt in the sixth game against Texas.

    He missed no other seasons or partial seasons due to injury.

    I do not see the NCAA granting this (unless he got hurt and missed the rest of this season — and then it’s still dicey). You are talking about someone who, after this season, will have played in 45 games assuming he does not get hurt.

    2

  25. ousuxndallas said:

    October 21st, 2009 at 12:23 pm

    Cincinnati has a legitimate chance to beat o.u. next year.

    As far as the TX/OU game, with Muschamp here, that game at worst will be a dogfight. I don’t see Texas losing by any kind of large margin in the foreseeable future.

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