Connect with your Facebook Account

• Contact

Football Articles

22

BCS Standings 10.18.09

Posted by Scipio Tex on October 18th, 2009 under Football

The picture is pretty clear. Note the numeric clumpings:

Florida .9886
Alabama .9526

Texas .8911

Boise St .8083
Cincinnati .7870
Iowa .7869
USC .7695

TCU .7139
LSU .7083

Texas has substantial space between it and the next four teams. If we win out, there’s a 97% chance we play for the MNC. Then, most likely, Alabama (or LSU possibly) and Florida play a one game elimination in the SEC title game for the right to go to Pasadena. Even a one loss SEC champion likely gets the nod over an undefeated Boise, Iowa, Cincy. A two loss SEC champ does not, of course. But that’s unlikely.

If Texas loses a game, we’re sunk. And we’re absolutely sunk if that loss is the Big 12 title game. Recency bias. If we drop Mizzou and win out, we’d have a 5% chance of earning a national title berth and we’d need widespread mayhem to get there.

Iowa, Cincy, Boise, TCU all need major help. Boise is praying that Oregon wins the Pac 10 at 11-1. Then they can attempt a media campaign. Won’t work though.

USC has caused much hand and panty wringing given the media’s perpetual crush on them and I’m watching Kirk Herbstreit try to advance their cause right now, but they’re just not a threat if we’re undefeated. A huge threat if we gain a loss though, obviously. Washington is a bad loss and Ohio State is now a tarnished victory.

Big 12

From a non-BCS perspective (hey, I’d like to win the Big 12 even if we suffer a loss – call me crazy) Texas Tech and OU are great tools for our success. We’ve put losses on them and they are now unleashed on the Big 12 South to harass Oklahoma State and beat up on the North (perhaps allowing a weaker title game representative to advance).

Obviously, if we lose a game, losing to Mizzou is preferable to OSU from a title game representation perspective.

Bottom line: win out and we’re playing for the marbles.

Article Tags:

, , , , ,

More from this Barker


Share This

  • StumbleUpon

22 Responses

  1. Nero said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 6:08 pm

    I never allow myself to think about the NC game until after we beat OU, no matter how highly ranked we are at any point prior to TX-OU. It’s tempting to fantasize about how we match up with Alabama or Florida now that our highest hurdle has been cleared. However, having attended the last two oklahoma st. road games in person, this game still scares the shit out of me. Toston is no dropoff from Hunter so far, and that atmosphere on halloween will be nuts.

    The good thing is we are in Ok State’s head, and both times I’ve been there, the give-up in their team and fans after we get the lead is palpable.

    And look at me overlooking Missouri.

  2. Scipio Tex said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 6:17 pm

    Nero -

    I don’t disagree. The gift of being a fan is that we can wildly speculate. Hopefully, the team has their eyes on Mizzou.

    They’ve got some offensive tools and even mediocre Big 12 defenses have the potential to destroy our offense if Greg Davis and MacWhorter continue to mail it in.

  3. nordberg said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 6:43 pm

    Scip, weigh in on the nightmare scenario: we go undefeated, but Florida loses a one-point game to Bama in the SEC championship game, and drops from #1 to #2. Possible?

  4. Scipio Tex said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

    I talked about this with Orson Swindle at EDSBS and he doubts this likelihood.

  5. Horncasting said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 7:06 pm

    Not that it matters in the big scheme of things, but if Bama is moved up ahead of Texas (which I agree with), you also have to move them ahead of Florida.

    Scipio – how do you see us matching up with Bama or Florida. I give us a better shot against the Tebows than the Tide (although Mack has scoreboard on Saban). Of course playing Florida would give Mack a shot at getting another win against the latest college football coaching genius (recent candidates include Saban, Stoops, Carroll, Ferentz, Tressel), which is a plus.

  6. Flamingmonkeyass said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 7:12 pm

    I’m not Scip (obviously) but I just can’t see that happening. The casual fan may not remember but in 2006 Ohio State (consensus #1) took on Michigan (#2 at the time) and won in a classic that had many people wondering if the two best teams in the country hadn’t just played and many, especially in the media, were calling for a re-match. Both went into their bowl games and were absolutely crushed by their respective opponents. Given the screwing we got last year I no longer think anyhing is outside of reason, but I’d be very surprised if those same media types weren’t reminded of 2006 should undefeated Alabama and Florida meet in the SEC championship game. If they begin to forget our public relations office needs to remind them. Or at least remind them of how it all ended. Florida fans can probably remember.

    Given all that plus the media, money and eyeballs Texas brings to the table, i don’t think there’s anyway we go unbeaten and get left out. Not after last year.

  7. java said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 7:50 pm

    I just watched the game, again. It may have been uglier the third time around.

    Glad to hear, Scip, that it doesn’t appear that a one-loss SEC team could play in the National Championship game over an undefeated Texas. I have been a bit concerned about that.

    Here’s hoping we get it together and play well in all facets of the game for the rest of the season.

    Scipio, are you now located in San Diego?

  8. Scipio Tex said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 7:56 pm

    Horncasting:

    I would like to get right on offense before contemplating either. Giving Saban and Charlie Strong a month to prepare for Greg Davis is a sobering thought. I’d like to face whichever teams has the most injuries, frankly. But right now? Florida.

    java:

    SF.

    Flaming:

    That’s exactly what Orson from EDSBS cited and I’m now swayed to his belief.

  9. SoonerSpy said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 8:51 pm

    Scipio, I think you guys may be under estimating Iowa. If they keep winning they could easily pass Cincy and Boise. They play a so-so Mich State this week. Later they are at Ohio State. Both games are certainly winnable. It doesn’t seem out of the question that an undefeated Big 10 team could finish in the top 4. In fact it seems rather likely to me.

    Should they end the season #4 then the question will be if UT can maintain enough lead in the polls votes to offset a considerable deficit in the computers.

  10. CloseToJumping said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 9:11 pm

    Listen, there is no fucking way we sit at home and watch while a 1-loss team plays for it all. That is searching out something stupid to worry about and it isn’t even worth the brain exercise. I can’t believe that conversation even exists. Shit.

  11. Scipio Tex said:

    October 18th, 2009 at 9:15 pm

    soonerspy -

    Iowa is a part of a discredited conference that needed a blocked FG to beat Northern Iowa. They will be evaluated as such. The country outside of the Midwest has Big 10 fatigue in a big way.

  12. Donny Boudreaux said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 5:48 am

    …and Iowa won’t have the benefit of a Championship game. That extra game will give us more than enough of a boost to surpass them in the comps.

  13. Bob in Houston said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 6:10 am

    Iowa still has to play at Michigan State and at Ohio State. I don’t know that they are better than either one.

  14. Huckleberry said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 6:10 am

    soonerspy -

    Even if Iowa finishes undefeated, which won’t happen, there’s no way they catch Texas. They would have to be significantly closer in the human polls to Texas than Southern Cal is right now. Not gonna happen if Texas stays undefeated.

  15. Levander Williams said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 7:54 am

    I doubt we ever fall below #3 in human polls, and our computer strength will only improve. I can’t see other teams in a competitive polling position having such a weak front-end as we have.

    No way an undefeated Texas misses the MNC game – even with our warty-assed offense.

  16. W.R.H. said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 8:39 am

    “I talked about this with Orson Swindle at EDSBS and he doubts this likelihood.”

    Well, I just talked to Orson Welles via my ouija board and asked him where UT would end up and he said, “the Rose, bud”…

  17. CloseToJumping said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 8:41 am

    Well done, William.

  18. The General said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 9:23 am

    Which one of these don’t belong?

    22 23 22 17 11 19

    Jeff Sagarin was raped by Leslie.

  19. RD said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 10:08 am

    Does a 1 loss SEC title really jump an undefeated Iowa team? This is not Boise State or TCU but Iowa from the Big 10 which would have wins against Penn State, Wisconsin,… of course Iowa still has to win out but I don’t know if a 1 loss team goes ahead of an undefeated Iowa.

  20. The General said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 10:57 am

    I don’t care if they skull fuck Iowa, as long as an undefeated Texas team is in Pasadena.

  21. Scipio Tex said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    RD –

    Iowa has a one point win against Northern Iowa and a three point win against Arkansas State. At home.

  22. bigdukesix said:

    October 19th, 2009 at 11:48 am

    Iowa’s destiny is to lose by three touchdowns to USC in the other Rose Bowl.

Leave a Reply

Follow Us

Related Articles

Hot Forum Topics

Activity