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Texas/OU 2009

Posted by ChrisApplewhite on October 14th, 2009 under Football

Who doesn’t love a good, hacky blog post with sections instead of a flowing narrative that takes time and ability?

When Texas is on the field:

Oklahoma has defended Texas the same way for the last 3 years. It worked OK in 2006 & 2007, then fell apart last year. They play their basic 6 man front, nickel over the slot, two deep shell, and try to limit big plays from the passing game. This worked two years ago and we lost largely because we couldn’t make those big plays (and that fumble). This worked less well last year and we won largely on the backs of big plays.

If you assume that Stoops will change once he’s been burned, you’d probably be right. But this year has featured sterling defensive performers by various Rocky Mountain Monsters like Wyoming and Colorado doing much the same thing. Would you change it up after seeing those games?

OU does have the best DL in football before they wear themselves out every week, and if you are confident in ability of Tanner and Hall to move even an unabridged Bible, much less an All-American DT, then you’re nuts. If we run the ball well then one of three things happened:

1. utter mutiny leads to Major and McWhorter designing a new offense in one week.
2. OU wore down (see: last year, Miami 2009, BYU 2009)
3. we call a more varied run game than we usually see.

Don’t laugh at that last one, because it’s actually been the pattern. The 2007 game was the best called of the year. It was the most varied run game I can recall seeing from Davis. We lost, but not because of playcalling. Last year was similar but not as multiple, but still a bigger improvement over the rest of the year.

(Why can’t the run game always look like that? Where do those plays go? There isn’t anything exotic in there that needs to stay hidden like a trap in a cave in an Indiana Jones movie.)

It’s impossible to say how well we’ll do, but I can say that the OU line won’t make it easy at first. We aren’t scoring in the first quarter unless it’s off a turnover, special teams play, or we go 40+ yards in one play. They’ll shut down our run game and our intermediate to deep passing games and leave us with one option. Luckily, it is our best option.

Expect to see more short passing than we have so far. This is a blessing and a curse. It’s good because we suck at everything else and are balls to the wall awesome at the 3 step drop game. It’s a curse because, as we’ve seen this year, it’s tough to have 15 plays drives time after time. There is punting and defense involved.

The thing is that OU will almost certainly double team Jordan Shipley, or at least roll coverages to his side. Can we score without him? We haven’t so far. OU’s safeties do suck, so there is hope of a big play still, but CU’s were worse and we couldn’t even get to those guys. Either we bust out some misdirection or are perfect short, because we have to do something to open that defense up. We’ve had tons of success hurting them in the seams over the course of the modern series, but their pass rush may put an end to that.

Needless to say, I am not feeling confident. I expect Stoops to double team Shipley, and play a more aggressive man under two deep type defense to get more pressure on the other WRs. Everybody else is fine when you let them maneuver, but if you make them beat coverages and make plays, things kind of fall apart.

If we’re smart, we’ll put Buckner, Williams, and Shipley all to one side and use the bigger bodies to run deep and protect Shipley. Malcolm Williams, who is in the process of getting David Aaron’d, can still make a play over a safety or nickel corner. Buckner can exploit those seams, and Shipley can do Shipley things in between them. We run a lot of trips against OU because it opens those seams, and I have a feeling that we’ll see it yet again. In fact, Buckner may end up being MVP for getting over LBs.

When OU is on the field:

Stopping OU is all about throwing a cog in the machine. They are a meticulously drilled team, but you can’t drill improvisation so if you can stop their first option, you’ll usually win. Chris Brown can break arm tackles, but neither RB is going to beat you on his own. None of their WRs are good. If we play sound defense and don’t make any big mistakes, I don’t see how they can outscore us. Bradford is worth a TD or two on long drives, and maybe Murray runs around an uncalled hold on a tackle for 30 yards, but is there anything over there that scares you?

They ran for 43 yards last year and will probably hit around that mark again, minus a long outlier or two. Chykie Brown and Blake Gideon are always good for a big play or two, so I don’t expect a shut out, but I don’t see where the points come from. Our pass rush isn’t as good as last year’s but it’s still good, and we might be the best blitzing team in the country.

I see a lot of blitzes with a man in center field (Gideon) coming this weekend. One because we don’t want Gideon covering anybody one on one, and two because we can cover them without a real big fear of getting burned, I think. Bradford is the only guy you need to defend and I wholly support making him prove he can handle the blitz with his shoulder.

OU is crafty, though, and won’t make things easy. You’ll probably see more rollouts from them than usual, and a lot of screens. We defend both very well but it’ll mean we can’t sell out for the sack. You’ll see them attack Gideon, which is why I want to see him deep, and they’ll make our DTs prove they can handle a pounding run game. OU run game is very similar to CU’s, with a bigger line and a worse running back. Stewart carried his team, literally, to maybe 30 yards more than it would’ve had otherwise, but 30 yards won’t beat us.

Special teams:

I don’t know. OU returns punts very well, but our rugby punting has made that a non issue. DJ Monroe and Shipley are good for some field position at least. I suck at breaking these down but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the game decided here, since neither offense shows much potential. Don’t think I’m not placing massive importance on it.

Overall:

Neither team should score 20 points which means both teams will score over 30, because college football never works out the way you think (UTEP over Houston!? What?). I can say with some confidence that OU won’t score over 20, and I can say with some confidence that we at least have that ability, so I am taking Texas is a close one. It’ll probably look like the Tech game where we aren’t really in danger of losing, but one big mistake could do us in in the second half. I see it coming down to mistakes. Whoever can play their game without doing anything stupid will win. This seems like a good place to point out that the Texas offense or special teams has given up points in all 5 games so far. Sleep tight!

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29 Responses

  1. Misterserious7 said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    “You’ll probably see more rollouts from them than usual, and a lot of screens.”

    More rollouts? Didn’t Bradford hurt his knee early in the Baylor game? With a bum knee and a bum shoulder, I can’t imagine rolling him out this week, but if they do, they sure as hell better roll him away from the Predator. Then again, I’m sure Sam Acho wouldn’t mind making Bradford his bitch either. Bradford is going to wish he’d decided to sit out the rest of the season after Saturday.

  2. Levander Williams said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 2:53 pm

    I think we’ll end up getting at least one defensive/ST score, and it will end up meaningful in the final score.

    Agree with you on the notion that on paper it looks like somewhat like a Ravens-Steelers game, but we will probably end up with more points than that. I think we’re better off throwing the ball 50 times and encouraging Colt to create some off-schedule stuff than trying to un-fuck the running game between the tackles.

    I’d like to think Texas wins around 23-17, but I honestly have no clue about which offense will show up.

  3. Billy Joe Owens said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 2:54 pm

    Well, both Sam and Colt were second today. One of them will have to be third on Saturday.

  4. magnusbleuveigner said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 3:02 pm

    I said it earlier in the week but I’ll repeat it. It doesn’t make a damn bit of sense to have our slowest afoot db covering the most ground. I realize that he’s simply help over the top, but when you need help over the top, you really fucking need help over the top. Thomas or Wells needs to be Griffey Jr. back there. We have plenty of corners to man up the slot.

    I can’t see us losing. We’re more talented, less dinged, and our D is better than it has been going into this game in a long time. Colt needs to run when it’s there as yards are going to be at a premium.

  5. texastough said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

    Our guys need to want it more. Thats what this game always comes down to.

  6. Joe Morgan said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

    the team who scores the most pts will have the advantage in this game.

  7. The General said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 3:29 pm

    “Who doesn’t love a good, hacky blog post with sections instead of a flowing narrative that takes time and ability?”

    Hear, hear!

  8. CloseToJumping said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    I enjoyed the read.

    I think the randomness of the Greg Davis offense makes this particular game the hardest game each year to predict – whether I’m making a prediction or Bob Stoops. The offense could look worse than Colorado, on par with a standard gameplan, or better than the offense against OU last year. There is no real way of knowing, and I don’t think Greg Davis knows right now either. It’s frustrating and mindnumbing. I cannot wait for him to be gone. I will take the devil I don’t know. Anyway.

    If Bradford rolls out more than once, and that time on a cart carrying him off the field, I’ll be shocked. He looked really, really beat up against Baylor. He was slow and deliberate in every way except when he was releasing the football. I will disappointed if we’re not working to put more pressure on him than he feels comfortable standing.

    Last year, OU had Gresham, a healthy Bradford, a healthy Broyles, Manny Johnson, Iglesias, Cheney, 4 standout OLs, 2 experienced shitty safeties (unlike the 2 inexperienced shitty safeties this year) and a fundamental confidence that they were going to win this game. We had Orakpo, Miller, Cosby, Collins, and Ogbannaya. I don’t see how the scales aren’t tipped even more favorably for us this year than any in memory outside of 2005. Whoever said this game is decided on who wants it more is right. I suspect this year’s version of the game to be something of a draw on that concept, so give me Texas with the experience advantage at almost every spot on the field.

  9. Bartoncreek said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    We really only have one weakness on D. With Gresham and Broyles out it becomes difficult for ou to exploit that weakness.

    We really have only 3 guys that can play on offense so it balances out. We know they will double Shipley unless they are complete idiots. That leaves Buckner. He is going to have to be big in this game for us to have a chance to score much. Unless by some miracle we get a Tech Malcolm Williams showing. That would ensure a win, but I am not counting on that. I still can’t figure out why he doesn’t play at all. At least he fucking blocks. Hell, put him in at S and let him play CF. I’d feel better about that position if he did.

    So, basically I agree with CA. With these two inept offenses and o-lines going against very solid defenses this game will be won or lost on a big ST play. I have to like our chances there.

  10. LosHorn said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 4:10 pm

    Have we figured out why Tucker starting punting lefty? Someone just get bored upstairs?

    Minimizing wasted downs appeasing Chiles with lateral passes and the nauseating Chiles-ego-centric wildhorn is key. Until he passes out of it, it’s useless.

    We need to stretch the field more than once. It works and I know that’s why Greg hates it, but we can’t throw every pass 2 1/2 yards and assume we’ll break 7 tackles.

    Tebow and Florida ran a dive out of the shotgun single back formation that looks similar to the option read, but it’s fast developing and it gains yardage very well. We should try that too.

  11. ChrisApplewhite said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 4:15 pm

    I forgot that Bradford hurt his leg. I still think OU would be fucking crazy to leave him standing in the pocket. They are going to move him and get rid of the ball in a hurry.

  12. Blackout said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 4:36 pm

    “So, basically I agree with CA. With these two inept offenses and o-lines going against very solid defenses this game will be won or lost on a big ST play. I have to like our chances there.”

    I do too. Except that our kickoff coverage has been abysmal. That slightly concerns me.

  13. BrickHorn said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 5:14 pm

    This is the year we finally see Tony Jeffery throw the ball downfield on the reverse. I can feel it.

  14. torre said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 5:30 pm

    Great analysis Chris. I am worried about Demarco Murray as a runner, but more dangerous as a receiver from the backfield or split out. They threw to him a couple of times against Baylor as I recall. Also. he is a threat on misdirection/reverse. We benefited from his absence last year. Thoughts?

    (Wish I had not read your blog, certainly won’t be able to sleep now)

  15. Mack Tripper said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 7:48 pm

    “Expect to see more short passing than we have so far.”

    How is this even possible after the CU game?

  16. HenryJames said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 8:21 pm

    They’re going to throw it backwards.

  17. WWGDD said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 9:09 pm

    I’m really looking forward to the 1st or 2nd series when we roll the Wildhorn out there and Chiles runs playaction, sees the pocket crumbling upon him and either A) brain farts and launches it out of bounds and takes the loss of down/ penalty or B) brain farts and launches it up for grabs and a pick 6. What will be most frustrating about this, is that GD will blow it off and put the Wildhorn in the closet with the ‘08 Q package and never speak of it again. Us fans and players will have to recall the 20-30 wasted downs GD stole from our offense this season so that he could sneak a Chiles pass play in against OU.

  18. topo_gigio said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 9:11 pm

    CTJ said: “The offense could look worse than Colorado, on par with a standard gameplan, or better than the offense against OU last year. ”

    I’ll go on record as saying that I think our offensive gameplan will be good ( which means competent, good for GD). After that abortion of an effort against Colorado, I think somehow Major is able to influence the monkey. Or the monkey gets inspired. I’d love to know what GD would score on the wonderlich.

    I wonder how much of the lack of “trust” between Colt and non-shipley receivers is on him, vs. on his receivers?

    BTW – anyone have thoughts on Davis as a QB coach? You could argue he’s done OK with Colt, but what do I know.

  19. BEHorn said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 9:22 pm

    “OU’s safeties do suck, so there is hope of a big play still, but CU’s were worse and we couldn’t even get to those guys.”

    Is that really true? I recall 3 long balls, all to Shipley — he made the great one-handed catch on the first, had a TD on one, and a PI on another. I just don’t think we TRIED to get to them very often.

    It has usually been a rule with OU’s safeties that they’ll jump short routes and cheat up to stop the run. They almost can’t help themselves. If we see Colt keep early on a true zone-read (to make their ends and LBs play the run more honestly), and if we see Shipley (or Monroe, or Goodwin, or — God forbid — Malcolm) go deep early to send a message, things could line up differently than they did against vs Colorado.

  20. gohornsgo90 said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 9:27 pm

    “They’re going to throw it backwards.”

    Duh, how else would you expect them to throw a screen to Chiles?

  21. trkhorn said:

    October 14th, 2009 at 9:58 pm

    This game is definitely about our offense. I would say we have been in a slow but steady decline since Ok. St. last year. Even against tOSU, we sputtered for much of the game before Colt ripped their hearts out. Our crapfest schedule so far this year makes things even more difficult to gauge. Have we been holding back? The first possession will tell a lot – if we don’t come out sharp at the midpoint of the season against our biggest rival, it is safe to say we are not MNC caliber and time to seriously ratchet down the expectations. I think we can count on the D holding serve as long as the O or ST doesn’t spot them the ball inside our 20 as we have been wont to do this season.

    11 am Saturday cannot get here soon enough.

  22. UTIceberg said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 6:08 am

    I think we’ll see Colt more on the move than in any previous game this year. Whether that’s on purpose or just him improvising doesn’t matter, but I have a feeling well see this happen on a few 3rd and 6 or 7’s, whick will keep an extra couple drives going. That ends up resulting in 7 or 10 points by the end of the game.

  23. hg03 said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 6:30 am

    torre,

    Demarco Murray played against us last year. He was shitty, but he played.

  24. riano said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 10:24 am

    Looks like the holding excuses are locked and loaded.

  25. kafka said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 11:04 am

    I predict:

    Colt will throw to Greg Smith in the red zone and Greg will catch it.

    Chiles will throw a pass, probably to Colt.

    Chiles will be thrown a deep pass.

    Colt will throw into double coverage (to Ship)and get intercepted.

    Colt throws a pass off the wild horn.

    Colt completes a deep pass to a TB (probably Fozzy) who is lined up as the 5th WR.

    Buckner catches at least 6 passes.

    Bradford has to leave the game for injury for at least one play.

    OU passes short (many screens) and runs almost exclusively.

    UT wins.

  26. houstonearler said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    The Longhorns should take out the Sooners this year. We better come to play. But, on the field, we have the best team.

  27. blackscholes said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

    Mack said he wants Malcolm Williams to see more time.

    He always says these things as if the matter was completely out of his hands.

    There’s usually one of these issues annually, and it’s typically an offensive player.

  28. msbillye61 said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 4:56 pm

    Broyles is playing this weekend.

  29. topo gigio said:

    October 15th, 2009 at 9:19 pm

    Kafka – I like all your predictions. They are on the money. If most of those work, we win comfortably, will be interesting to see reaction of fans at large. Most know better on this site.

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