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Why was USC’s loss to Washington considered an upset?

Posted by HenryJames on September 23rd, 2009 under Football

As numerous Barkers pointed out ahead of time including CloseToJumping, this Southern Cal team was overrated to begin the season. They were going to start an unproven quarterback, and they had substantial losses on defense. But people wanted to jump back on their bandwagon after they beat Ohio State even though they’ve made a living out of beating Big 10 teams under Pete Carroll. Keep in mind that Ron Zook has earned a BCS birth in that conference.

And Pete Carroll has struggled with conference road openers since he’s been at Southern Cal. He’s 4-5 in those games even though they’ve probably been the favorite in at least 7 of them.

2001 Lost at Oregon 24-22

2002 Lost at Washington St 30-27

2003 Lost at Cal 34-31

2004 Won at Stanford 31-28

2005 Won at Oregon 45-13

2006 Won at Arizona 20-3

2007 Won at Washington 27-24

2008 Lost at Oregon St 28-21

2009 Lost at Washington 16-13

You don’t have to be Vegas Kyle to see a trend there.

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13 Responses

  1. BrickHorn said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 1:20 pm

    Washington was 0-10 last season. USC was 12-1. Sure, USC lost a lot and Washington got some key players healthy and a new coach. But, even if you assume USC was overrated and Washington underrated, I don’t think there was a sound case for the Huskies passing USC in terms of team quality this season. My guess is that USC will have a better record at the end of the season than will Washington. Thus, the perception that this game was an upset (i.e. the overall lesser team won), even if it’s not surprising that USC lost to a weaker PAC-10 team.

  2. Scipio Tex said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    I’d say it was a predictable upset.

    Pac 10 defenses do a pretty good job scouting of USC. Familiarity gives them a lot of opportunity to gameplan. If you can avoid being bludgeoned by their superior athletes, their play action game isn’t exactly rocket science. I’ve been consistently impressed with some of the gameplans I’ve seen from Cal, Stanford, Arizona, Oregon State over the years against them.

  3. travis said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 1:30 pm

    Thats part of the reason It was so crazy our fans were freaking out in week 2 about usc jumping us if we both went undefeated… Not that i picked washington to win by any means , but you knew they were going to lose to somebody bad, and i still think they get beat by Cal for sure, and maybe notre dame in south bend too. My only complaint with all of this though is the media’s spin on USC, every year they do this, and they start talking about how maybe this shows how solid the pac 10 is, but when we lose on the road to K ST. its because we are way overated..

  4. Donny Boudreaux said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 1:33 pm

    To me the bigger question is…. How are they still allowed to be in MNC talks year after year despite these kinds of losses??

    Last year they were #5 by years end even after losing to unranked OSU.

    In 07 they lost to Stanford (unranked) and Oregon and yet finished #3 in the AP (even had 1 first place vote!!!!)

    In 06 they had 2 losses and yet finished #4 in the AP.

    The media seem to forgive USC quicker than any other team out there… or maybe its
    A) they always kill whichever sacrificial Big X lamb they get in the bowl game
    or
    B) They lose so early in the season that they are more quickly to be forgiven.

  5. Sailor Ripley said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 1:47 pm

    .

    Similar vein here: Link

    This story is going to do things you didn’t think possible. It will compliment Ohio State football coach Jim Tressel in a way that insults the OSU football program. It will compliment Southern California in a way that insults USC coach Pete Carroll.

  6. CloseToJumping said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 2:20 pm

    When I looked at the various teams in the preseason, I felt like UW had a chance to win maybe 4 games this year. I wondered if that could be considered a surprise team and posted all of that on the Scipio thread about surprise programs this year. Hey, they were no Nevada pick, but what is?

    Anyway, they’re legitimately better than a 4 win team at this point. They played a poorly coached LSU team to a closer match than expected in the opener. Seattle is a tough place to play. Locker is a very good college QB. This team could conceivably go to a bowl after this upset.

    In regard to USC, I still believe that they’re due for a 3 loss season this year. I don’t know where the other two come from, but there is now 1 less to find.

    As to the question from somewhere in terms of why they get the benefit of the doubt on a national level, I think it has everything to do with the perception they create leading up to and during the Rose Bowl against the Big Televen opponents. The media can write what they like, but they love the Big Televen and sentimental value is always attributed to the Rose Bowl. Same is true for coaches.

  7. Austindave said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    .

    From yesterday’s Daily Trojan. Trojans aren’t out of the hunt yet

    Is it really that absurd to argue that USC still has a shot at the national title?

    No.

    Let me explain.

    Of the top 10 teams in the preseason Associated Press poll, only five have escaped the first three weeks unscathed. First Virginia Tech and Oklahoma fell, then Oklahoma State and Ohio State, and now USC.

    So Florida and Texas are No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the latest AP poll — and, well, they have been all season. But what have they done to deserve that ranking?

  8. Scipio Tex said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 2:33 pm

    I think their benefit of the doubt also stems from legit OOC slates that they typically murder along with the aforementioned bowl success. That engenders a level of national respect. If they can whip our local bully, then golly.

    You also can’t discount churning players into the NFL like an assembly line and signing fantastic recruiting classes.

    As for losing to inferior in-conference opponents, we’re not exactly sterling post-Vince in that regard. A&M x 2, KSU x 2. Not exactly shining moments for this program. Those are four ugly ass losses.

  9. Phenomenal Smith said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 3:23 pm

    Where does Huck’s computer put this game on the upset scale? Huck?

    You also can’t discount churning players into the NFL like an assembly line

    At this moment, Texas has two more NFL players than USC – it’s 39-37. This has nothing to do with your point, Scip, but I like numbers.

  10. srr50 said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 4:08 pm

    I think there are two other factors that help explain the intraconference upsets.

    First of all the Pac 10 still plays a true round-robin schedule, none of this two years on and then two years off the schedule. That gives everyone a good read on schemes from everyone else. You are more familiar with the talent and how it is used, it takes away some of the “fear factor” in that you line up against USC every year and yes, you can spot their weaknesses better on a yearly basis.

    Also the entire league has a legit OOC schedule year-in year-out. This year 50% of all the OOC games played by Pac 10 teams are against other BCS opponents. Once again, if you line up against quality in non-conference play, it helps you prepare for the elite in your own league.

  11. Sailor Ripley said:

    September 23rd, 2009 at 10:21 pm

    I like the idea of the Daily Trojan.

  12. longhornmatt said:

    September 24th, 2009 at 1:45 am

    “Also the entire league has a legit OOC schedule year-in year-out. This year 50% of all the OOC games played by Pac 10 teams are against other BCS opponents. Once again, if you line up against quality in non-conference play, it helps you prepare for the elite in your own league.”

    It also leads to the other Pac 10 teams being underrated. They play real OOC opponents, they lose some of those games, and then when they play USC they are just some unranked team who everyone has already dismissed because they have an L next to their name.

    Contrast that with the Big 12. Our gauntlet of top 10 opponents last year was basically a fluke result of Missouri, Tech, and Oklahoma State playing garbage OOC schedules which enabled them to be undefeated fairly late into the season (until they started playing each other). The SEC benefits from this too. They play directional schools and FCS schools from their home state in OOC, and then they try to act like it was an accomplishment to squeak by Kentucky because “gee whiz, Kentucky was 4-0. SEC!”

    In reality, though, is there really that big a difference between the mid level Pac 10 teams that pull “shocking upsets” over USC and the mid level SEC/Big 12 teams that beat Texas/OU/Florida every year? Probably not. The Pac 10 teams just seem worse because we find out they are mediocre earlier in the season.

  13. dedfischer said:

    September 24th, 2009 at 5:01 am

    I should have stuck with my guns on the 3 loss prediction for them.

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