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414 – 340: A Statistical Look At The Texas Longhorns

Posted by BrickHorn on September 21st, 2009 under Football

If total yards from scrimmage determined wins and losses, Tech would have won soundly on Saturday.
The Red Raiders outgained Texas 414 to 340. This early in the season, it’s difficult to tell what those numbers mean. Tech’s other opponents have been pathetic, and thus the Raiders’ stats in the previous two games offer no useful context for comparison. But perhaps we can extract some insight from other comparisons and analysis.

The Texas Offense

The Horns scored 34 on Tech, but the special teams contributed 7. The offense accounted for 27 points, which is exactly what the offense provided last season in Lubbock in its statistically worst game of the season.

Our scoring drives amounted to 33, 66, 47, 19 and 49 yards each. Texas had 4 drives that started from behind their 30 yard line, and didn’t score on a single one of those drives. So, field position made a big difference. That may seem obvious, but in last season’s Tech game, the Horns scored 2 touchdowns and a field goal – half of their total scores – in the seven drives that started from behind the Texas 30. In the other seven drives, Texas also scored 2 touchdowns and a field goal. So, whereas in last year’s Tech game, field position was entirely neutral in terms of predicting the expected outcome of a Texas drive, it proved decisive this season. Against Wyoming, Texas managed to only score once in the six drives that started from inside the 30 (although the Horns did manage two 70-yard TD drives). There’s too little data to conclude anything from these observations, but I don’t think it is unreasonable to be slightly worried about the Horns’ inability to put together long, sustained drives from poor field position.

Finally, as mentioned above, the Horns managed only 340 yards of total offense. That output is far less than any of last season’s efforts. In 2008, Texas failed to gain 400+ yards only once, against Tech (374). In fact, you’d have to go back to the disastrous 2006 A&M2007 KSU game to find a more impotent showing by the Texas O. So, at home in a revenge game against an unranked team with an tradition of fielding sieve-like defenses, the #2 Longhorns’ high-powered offense somehow managed to play their worst game in 2 seasons. Not good.

The Defense

The Horns’ D gave up 414 yards and 24 points to Tech. That’s the lowest point total Texas has allowed to the Red Raiders since 2005, and least yardage allowed since 2004. The defense yielded fewer yards on Saturday than last year’s D gave up to OU (435), Ok. State (416), and Tech (579). Tech’s yardage is about what UTEP racked up against us last season (412 yards). So there’s an argument that our showing against Tech represents an improvement over last year’s defensive performances against top offenses. But it certainly wasn’t in line with what we did against Mizzou in Austin.

It is also worth noting that 233 of Tech’s yards were amassed on Tech’s three longest drives, each of which culminated in a touchdown. Tech gained an average of 16.5 yards over the other 11 drives, the longest being a 64-yard FG drive to begin the game. No other Tech drive was longer than 24 yards. Basically, 72% of Tech’s yards were gained on four (of 14) possessions; on two or three of these possessions, Texas was running an umbrella-style prevent defense. So, while that observation certainly doesn’t erase the Tech touchdowns, it hopefully provides a useful study for our coaching staff going forward.

The D also won the turnover battle, causing five fumbles, recovering two and causing an interception that set up a short 19-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter.

Special Teams

I usually don’t pay much attention to special teams, but they played an important role in the game. Obviously, Shipley’s punt return was huge. Also, while our kickoff coverage wasn’t dominant, it also wasn’t disastrous. Tech did not start a single drive in Texas territory. Hunter Lawrence also went 2-for-2 on FGs.

Summary

This is a game the Horns easily could have lost. Tech outgained Texas by 74 yards, but a punt return and key interception proved decisive. Our defense was dominant until we shifted strategies late in the game, at which point it became utterly ineffective at stopping the pirate onslaught. Something’s wrong with the offense. I’ll leave the discussion of the reasons why to the X’s and O’s analysts, but there’s no doubt based on the statistics that this offense is not playing well enough to beat quality opponents without significant help from the defense and special teams.

Thoughts?

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30 Responses

  1. hopefulhorn said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 12:43 pm

    The biggest issue on offense is Colt being mortal so far. 75 of 110 (68%) for 6 scores and 4 int’s and an average of 286 yards per game would be great for just about anyone else. Last season set expectations out of sight. I think he will pick it up a bit over the next couple of games. As always, your best players have to have big games to beat OU.

  2. texastough said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:01 pm

    This is for X’s and O’s guys to determine as well, but the reason our offense is pedestrian this year is because its basically one dimensional – all short plays. VERY few shots downfield or intermediate passes. Is that Davis’ play calling, Colt not making the right reads, the O-line not giving Colt time, the receivers not getting open? I don’t know, but whatever it is, if we can fix it and start hitting some 20+ yard passes, I think the offense will look a lot more like last year’s O.

    IMO the D is dominant overall. Someone needs to explain what coverage means to the Browns and Gideon but other than that, the D is close to being one of the nation’s best.

  3. PrettystinkingAwesome said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:03 pm

    Next year is going to be fun

  4. PrettystinkingAwesome said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:03 pm

    game that is

  5. nordberg said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:04 pm

    I’m going with the exact opposite of what texastough just said. How many times last year did Colt hit Shipley or Cosby in the middle of the field, three or four yards past the line of scrimmage? Like literally 10 times a game. That’s not there anymore, for whatever reason.

  6. cincinnatus said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:12 pm

    there’s no doubt based on the statistics that this offense is not playing well enough to beat quality opponents without significant help from the defense and special teams.

    Thoughts?

    True ’nuff.

    Just because Texas ran the table in 2005 with an Offense For The Ages doesn’t mean that is the only way to win ‘em all. Our offense is what it is — a vehicle for battering weak teams into submission and for surviving strong teams through the preternatural play of our QB. As he goes, so goes the offense, period.

    I think Colt’s dancing around in the pocket like a cat on a hot tin roof (aka “happy feet”) and resulting poor performance could be remedied by the emergence of a running game threat that would slow down the pass rush that otherwise cannot be stopped by our sieve-like O-line; but that is just wishful thinking, as ScipioTex and others have pointed out ad nauseum on this blog. My more realistic hope is that as Colt regresses to the mean (somewhere b/t Colt v08 and Colt v07), the defense exceeds past performances and cancels out the offense’s shortcomings. If it doesn’t … well, then I guess someone from Boise can have my hotel reservation at the Pasadena Hilton for Jan. 6-8.

  7. triplehorn said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:12 pm

    Re:

    “Texas had 4 drives that started from behind their 30 yard line, and didn’t score on a single one of those drives. So, field position made a big difference. That may seem obvious, but in last season’s Tech game, the Horns scored 2 touchdowns and a field goal – half of their total scores – in the seven drives that started from behind the Texas 30. In the other seven drives, Texas also scored 2 touchdowns and a field goal. So, whereas in last year’s Tech game, field position was entirely neutral in terms of predicting the expected outcome of a Texas drive, it proved decisive this season.”

    Paradoxically, 3rd down efficiency for Texas Saturday was 8-16 whereas last year against Tech it was 4-12. You’d think that with better 3rd down efficiency, success on long drives would manifest though that’s not the case when comparing the last two games with Tech.

  8. Lilia said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:13 pm

    Also, Colt was shaking off the flu.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4492204

  9. HenryJames said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:19 pm

    I’m no doctor, and neither is Doperbo. But maybe next time he should have juice and cookies before the game.

  10. Vasherized said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    Trips was shaking off an Absynthe ‘n Adderall bender but he still showed up.

  11. dick said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:52 pm

    I quit caring about winning the total yards battle vs Tech a long time ago. We were outgained in 2005 with VY too and that was the most dominant game I’ve ever seen the Longhorns in person. Tech’s offense is great at generating yards. Also, great special teams is a staple of Mack Brown’s era at Texas (minus NcSt ‘99), having outperformed Beamer’s VT’s teams over the same time period. Winning with great D and special teams is cool with me for now because I believe the offense (Colt) will come around.

  12. ctex80 said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    Seems to me that Colt is trying to strong arm throws to pretty much everyone but Buckner and Shipley. Could be a result of the adjustment teams are making by sitting back instead of blitzing like last year, he thinks he has to rifle the ball in there to fit between coverage and it’s sailing on him? If anyone has a breakdown of targets vs completions that might be useful. I’d be willing to bet that Colt’s completion % is 15-20 points higher to Shipley and Buckner than to everyone else.

  13. chrisapplewhite said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 2:32 pm

    “This is for X’s and O’s guys to determine as well, but the reason our offense is pedestrian this year is because its basically one dimensional – all short plays. VERY few shots downfield or intermediate passes.”

    I think it’s the other way around. Teams are playing back and not giving us anything deep and we aren’t taking what they give us until it’s 3rd and 4 or something. That puts too much pressure on the quick game, imo. It’s still the thing we do the best.

  14. Brennan Huff said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 2:40 pm

    Statistically I’d like to see Emmanuel Acho and Aaron Williams on the field 100% of the time. Those dudes remind me of DJ, they make things happen.

  15. BrickHorn said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 3:01 pm

    So, the consensus of the X’s and O’s thinkers on the thread can be summarized by the following three observations:

    1. Our problem is relying on short passes. We need more intermediate and long routes.

    2. Our problem is that defenses are not giving up short passes, which we relied on last season.

    3. Our problem is that defenses are sitting back and allowing short passes, but we are trying to force the issue downfield.

    Thanks, guys.

    I’m waiting for noted X’s and O’s guru echeese to come by and inform us that our problems on offense are caused by poor recruiting, a conspiracy among the offensive players to suck on purpose despite excellent coaching, and a poor showing by the defense and special teams.

  16. Vasherized said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    Brickhorn and echeese need their own simulation on Deadliest Internet Warrior.

    Our problem is when we’re calling short passes vs long and the lack of execution with both. We’re screwing up too many first and second downs, leaving the obvious for Greg Davis to choose from on 3rd & long, i.e. throw for four when you need eight, or hope Colt checks off that read and finds something else downfield. That hasn’t happened much this year without Quan Cosby in the lineup.

  17. BrickHorn said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 3:34 pm

    We’re screwing up too many first and second downs,

    That’s definitely true. But why? What’s going wrong on first and second down? Playcalling? Execution? Scheme? Swine flu? I don’t have any clue what the answer is, other than to say that generally whatever the fuck we’ve been doing, it has not been very effective. But the season is still young.

  18. texastough said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 3:58 pm

    Nordberg – you proved my point.

    chrisapplewhite:

    The point was that since we aren’t trying ANYTHING deep, defenses don’t respect it. They aren’t sending as many guys at the QB, but they are not playing back way off the line of scrimmage. Their corners and LB’s are sitting on the short passes. Tech dropped safeties deep and that opened up the run some, but we should still take some long shots and hit intermediate ones to stop defenses from taking away the short ones to anybody but Shipley. Like I said, I don’t know if its playcalling, Colt’s reads, receivers other than Shipley and Buckner not getting open, weak O-line play, all I know is that we aren’t trying much of anything intermediate or long and the short game is not working that well. I think there’s a causal relationship there.

  19. texasengr said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 6:05 pm

    I’m in agreement with dick and vasherized.

  20. SocoHorn said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 6:25 pm

    If Colt had the flu and didn’t practice the majority of the week, what in god’s name were the coaches doing calling twice as many plays to Colt (pass plays & quarterback keepers) as run plays in the first half?

  21. batate said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 6:31 pm

    Colt’s line in the first half:

    1st-10, Tex20 11:06 C. McCoy passed to J. Shipley to the right for 8 yard gain
    2nd-13, Tex29 9:45 C. McCoy passed to D. Buckner down the middle for 18 yard gain
    1st-10, Tex49 9:45 C. McCoy incomplete pass to the right
    3rd-8, TexT49 8:45 C. McCoy sacked by R. Jones
    1st-10, Tex12 4:22 C. McCoy passed to J. Shipley down the middle for 1 yard gain
    3rd-4, Tex18 4:22 C. McCoy incomplete pass to the left
    2nd-6, TexT21 0:45 C. McCoy sacked by B. Bird
    3rd-12, TexT27 15:00 C. McCoy incomplete pass to the right
    1st-10, Tex47 11:36 C. McCoy passed to J. Shipley down the middle for 3 yard gain
    2nd-7, 50 11:00 C. McCoy passed to J. Shipley to the right for 6 yard gain
    1st-10, TexT42 10:25 L. Moore intercepted C. McCoy for 3 yards
    2nd-15, Tex40 6:30 C. McCoy passed to J. Chiles to the left for 10 yard gain
    3rd-5, 50 6:00 C. McCoy incomplete pass down the middle
    1st-10, Tex20 3:30 C. McCoy incomplete pass to the left
    3rd-5, Tex25 2:50 C. McCoy passed to J. Shipley down the middle for 6 yard gain
    2nd-7, Tex34 2:00 C. McCoy passed to M. Williams to the right for 10 yard gain
    2nd-4, 50 1:30 C. McCoy incomplete pass to the left
    3rd-5, Tex49 1:20 C. McCoy passed to G. Smith to the right for 3 yard gain

    Not good when Tech is giving you the short pass. Complete half of those misses, and you convert more third downs with short passes, and also complete more passes on third down because you don’t have to throw it as far.

    In the second half, Colt completed 83%. A little more consistency in the first half will fix what’s broken this year against most teams. All teams so far are giving up the short pass. OU won’t, so that’s a different can of worms.

  22. edsp said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 7:08 pm

    Brennan Huff: AW is, I believe, on the field full-time. The Browns may switch off some. E. Acho you’re right: He oughta be out there for every snap; he and Keenan Robinson are good enough in coverage that playing the nickel, except against Tech, may not be necessary.

    The offensive style/play calling is an impossible issue to solve. To run better, WE GOTTA RUN MORE — to get good at it, to get confident in it, to leave the mindset with the offense (and the entire team) that ALL THE BIG PLAYS don’t have to come out of the passing game. But, to be really efficient throwing the ball, we gotta do it regularly to achieve and maintain crisp timing. Don’t see how to do both.

  23. horncasting said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 7:30 pm

    “This is a game the Horns easily could have lost. ”

    And it is also a game the Horns could have easily won by 3 TD’s if Okafor falls on the ball and the DB’s hang on to just one of the 4 potential INT’s they dropped.

  24. longhornmatt said:

    September 21st, 2009 at 9:44 pm

    “I’m waiting for noted X’s and O’s guru echeese to come by and inform us that our problems on offense are caused by poor recruiting, a conspiracy among the offensive players to suck on purpose despite excellent coaching, and a poor showing by the defense and special teams.”

    There is some merit to the poor recruiting claim, because 3/5 of our OL is not up to par. In retrospect, I have no idea why we the internet fan braintrust actually bought into the idea that McWhorter was making a wise choice to recruit a boatload of stiff 3 star white boys from suburbia during his first few years here. I realize Nunez was abominable, but come on. When BYU’s line is more gangsta than ours … well, at that point res ipsa loquitur ought to come into play.

    But really the problem with our offense is the fact that our running game sucks, and this is in large part independent of the OL personnel. This isn’t a revolutionary theory about our offense, but I think we often tend to overlook this basic truth because we all know it won’t change and it’s more comforting to think our key to improvement lies elsewhere. People were actually encouraged by our rushing performance against Tech, and we had 41 carries for 135 yards. Again, res ipsa.

  25. nordberg said:

    September 22nd, 2009 at 8:48 am

    Take out the Chiles dart up the middle out of he Cluster Flux, and it’s 40 carries for 106. Ouch.

  26. randywatson said:

    September 22nd, 2009 at 9:09 am

    “Take out the Chiles dart up the middle out of he Cluster Flux, and it’s 40 carries for 106. Ouch.”

    That isn’t a full picture. You are including the 3 carries for -6 we got while lining up in the victory formation and 2 sacks for -13. You also include the 1 yard TD run for Johnson.

    Take out those plays — which should not reflect our running games average per attempt — Chiles long run (34 yards), and Chiles -5 when he fumbled the snap, and you have 33 carries for 129 yards. Not saying that’s great, but it is a lot better than the misleading stats you posted.

  27. gohornsgo90 said:

    September 22nd, 2009 at 9:46 am

    I think there are four keys to the offense’s emerging and becoming better than last year. The first two are simple/extremely obvious:

    1. The offensive line has to play at, at least, a mediocre level. They are not doing that right now–in fact often they look downright atrocious.

    2. Colt needs to level out…and soon. He’s not as bad as he played in the last game, and he was bad. Sailing passes over receiver’s heads is the sign of a QB who is simply not comfortable with his scheme, his receivers, or being in a real game situation. Colt knows the scheme in and out and he’s a four-year starter, so I’m tempted to lean to the conclusion that he’s not completely comfortable throwing to Chiles and Kirkendoll, and certainly not M. Williams. He’s been on the same page with Ship for two years now. For some reason he trusts Buckner like he’s, pardon the pun, a second roommate.

    There are some other keys as well, which should loosen us up and make Colt more comfortable:

    3. We need to get the play action game rolling. We’ve hardly run it all year, primarily because the running game has been, well, Greg Davis style w/o a wunderkind halfback to overcome the scheme. This will allow the O Line a break and consequently allow Colt to sit back in the pocket for a reasonable amount of time (holding the DEs and LBs). We all know how much the PA game can add to an offense, and seemingly Texas loves to play sans this advantage (as well as many others) that give us (along with our higher amount of talent) the ability to dominate teams consistently without having to play perfectly (a la Colt last year). We don’t have to throw 12 passes to score, we can throw 2.

    4. The final piece of the puzzle is Malcolm Williams. Speaking of wunderkind talents, Williams is one of the all-world kinds of players that UT HAS to take advantage of (like we take advantage of Kindle and AJ Williams). How easily did we score in the second half with Malcolm in the Tech game last year? They had NO answer for his abilities, nor would 9/10 of the teams we will play. His deep threat ability in the PA game would torture CBs and safeties, not to mention DCs, plus lower our need for Colt to have to single-handedly win every game for us. He’s our most talented receiver since that Roy Williams guy, but for some reason his understanding of the game and his hands just haven’t caught up with his immense talent level. Somehow Davis, Kennedy, Mack, Major…whoever, need to get through to this guy and unleash him on the rest of the country. Christ, show him Roy Williams’ paycheck and say, “You could earn this too in a couple of years.” Just get the guy right in his head.

    You may have noticed I didn’t mention the running game as a key. I don’t expect it to change much, maybe slight improvement with Tre Newton. But guys, it’s not like JC suddenly came back for his senior year. Monroe wasn’t used at all last game other than in the Wildhorn, and he did nothing. Maybe Chiles can add another element to the scheme, but we still won’t have that consistent rushing attack like UT is known to have.

  28. texastough said:

    September 22nd, 2009 at 9:55 am

    Malcolm – “Just get the guy right in his head.”

    Before the season I talked to a player on the team, asked about different players etc. including Malcolm. He was like “that is a weird guy” but the look on his face when he said it told me everything. No idea what the specific problem is, but its clearly more than just brick hands. I stopped holding out any hope for him at that point.

    My hope is that as Chiles learns as a receiver he can bring a lot of the same things to the table that Malcolm should be bringing – size, physicality, speed, etc. – and that the coaches utilize that more than with just the WR screens.

  29. Trips Right said:

    September 22nd, 2009 at 11:06 am

    The funny thing is once we went to some counters and starting pulling folks in the run game, it opened up our zone blocking scheme because the Tech front 7 had to hesitate. The hesitation allowed our big guys to engage the smaller Tech front and maul them. This was the second half adjustment that really got our running game going. Tre Newton was the beneficiary.

  30. gohornsgo90 said:

    September 22nd, 2009 at 8:20 pm

    Cool, let’s try it for an entire game now.

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  • dick commented on the blog post Scholarship Numbers & Junior Days   6 hours, 42 minutes ago

    Dam, I was just going to post the same shit.

    OT and DB are the most important postions. OT we need Westerman, Haverty and Drango/Greenlea/Cochran. What do we know about Cochran?

    I hope Adrian White benefits from being there in the Spring. That is the one thing that worries me about the Class

  • CloseToJumping wrote a new blog post: Scholarship Numbers & Junior Days   7 hours ago

    We know Junior Day #1 is this Saturday. There’s flux in regard to who will and won’t be on the roster come the 2010 season, but let’s assume the numbers don’t really matter, as a whole bunch of seniors leave after 2010 and attrition will take place as well.

    So your number is 25 max.

    What positions

  • Burnt Orange Wookiee commented on the blog post Game Day: Spurs vs. Lakers Open Thread   7 hours, 5 minutes ago

    Just got back from the UT game. At least the Spurs are hanging in there.

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  • GoHornsGo90 commented on the blog post Kansas Open Thread   7 hours, 9 minutes ago

    “Oh, and Rick Barnes couldn’t hold Bill Self’s jock when it comes to coaching. Not even close.”

    Understatement of the decade. Errr, century?

    Show of hands. How many here are typing under the influence?

  • Victor Scott commented on the blog post Kansas Open Thread   7 hours, 18 minutes ago

    Fundamentally on both sides of the ball we are very weak. On defense we are athletic but don’t really understand when to pressure the ball or double team. Many times we over persue at a time when the offensive player is not in a dangerous position and end up giving up an easy

  • Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Kansas Open Thread   7 hours, 32 minutes ago

    Is she a redhead? That’s fantastic. Possibly the 2nd best performance in this game behind Damion James.