Football Articles
USC Reloads, Right? Wrong.
Posted by CloseToJumping on August 31st, 2009 under Football, Recruiting
Fight on.
Not this year, at least.
What I find surprising about USC this season is the sunshine-laden outlook they’ve received from almost any interested party when they’re discussed. ESPN & AP polls say #4. Folks on this site and others think top 5, you can see it in the forums. CFN, the CFB version of the theater of the absurd, ranks them at 2, well ahead of UT at 4. This isn’t a case of the media saying one thing, but we fans see something different (see Oregon) or a few folks that are really well-informed like a team but no one else, not the media or the majority of fans sees it the same way (take Arkansas as an example). No, pretty much on a mass level it is generally assumed that USC will be a top 5 team with a shot at the title this year.
Is the faith in that program warranted for 2009?
Certainly the trends look good. They’ve been the most dominating team in CFB over the past 7 years. They won a share of one national title, they won another outright, and they’ve been in contention for several others.
They’ve been able to “reload” during that stretch on a few occasions. By “reload”, I mean they’ve lost guys and stayed in contention for conference and national titles after the losses. Notably, they lost Carson Palmer, Troy Polamalu and a number of supporting ballplayers after the 2002 season, and similar things happened after the 2005 season, which saw the departure of Leinart & Bush. Both follow-up teams were national title contenders, with the 2003 squad obtaining the AP version.
So why will 2009 be any different than any other year in which they’ve followed a hugely successful season with major personnel losses?
Well, maybe it won’t be, but there’s enough to at least seriously consider the possibility.
Coaching Attrition
Their offenses have been up and down since Chow left after 2004. Last year’s offense, with 1st round pick Mark Sanchez at the helm, looks great on paper and in the Rose Bowl, but was sporadically mediocre. They were poor against Oregon State, Arizona, and Arizona State for sure. I watched those games, among others. I don’t need to know or look up the stats. They benefited from something like 6 turnovers against ASU and struggled to put up 28 points against that defense. Arizona was worse. Everyone knows the drill with Oregon State. Maybe the loss of Chow doesn’t lead directly to that. In all likelihood it absolutely doesn’t, but it isn’t like they upgraded when they lost him. Sarkisian and Kiffin have spotty enough records by comparison to doubt that it didn’t have some impact over the past few years, including when Sark was all alone last season. This year, they’ve downgraded again, with several guys splitting duties after Sarkisian’s departure for UW. John Morton handles the passing game and Jeremy Bates (Jim Bates’ son) handles everything else. Neither of these guys have weak pedigrees, although neither have any experience coordinating an offense. Still, I am sure people can make cases that they’re wizards under the guidance of Pete Carroll and the Halo Effect that accompanies him.
Defensively, Pete Carroll is known as the driving force behind the performance of his team’s defenses. I’m not going to type otherwise here. However, he doesn’t take care of the defense entirely on his own. He’s always had a healthy array of defensive minds around him. In the past 5 years, he’s lost Ed Orgeron and Nick Holt, nonetheless. Both of those guys are viewed as being solid defensive guys, with the addition of Orgeron’s value as a recruiting wizard. No doubt Carroll still has what it takes, but any losses like these have an impact on the program.
Talent & Depth
Talent is the central tenant to the concept that USC won’t miss a beat this season. They certainly lost an abundance of talent in critical areas, but this is USC, and they will just reload. Or something.
The reloading talent concept works when several things are true:
1) The assumed talent is truly on a level above the competition.
This is a general assumption for the USC program. They’ve brought in top 5 classes or better for more than 5 consecutive years. Where this piece of the assumption falls apart is if the talent isn’t completely on par with the expectations. Sometimes a class is overrated. Sometimes guys don’t get in, or he plays baseball, or some such, before they ever step on campus. Sometimes a recruit begins to receive a higher amount of credit for their skills and talent than a comparable player because a particular school is pursuing them. The Halo Effect can play a role here as well.
2) The experienced talent being replaced isn’t too widespread in terms of positions lost, and the groups dependent upon experience aren’t hit broadly at the same time.
Several LBs and a DB being replaced, even if they are all 1st rounders, isn’t too much to handle for a seriously talented program like USC, some might believe. But what happens when an entire unit of LBs, several DBs, and 3 of the top 5 DLs have to be replaced? Irrespective of the talent replacing that attrition, the shared learning curve loss is massive. Similarly, an offense can lose a few OLs, a few WRs, maybe a TB, and keep on moving. A QB loss is often altogether different, if not always. Capable, well trained replacements at QB can come in and pick up quickly. What happens when the QB has no experience? Very little training? And the backups have injury issues or have disappointed when previously given the chance to take the reins? What happens when the new QB is taking snaps from an inexperienced Center because the starting Center is out for several games? Teams struggle with these problems every year. Sometimes, it even happens to good programs in a down cycle. See OU in 2005. See Miami after Dorsey. USC’s O’Dowd is likely out through the Ohio State game. He injured his knee similarly in 2007 and missed 4 games. The guy is one of the best Centers in the country and that position is fundamental to their success if the QB is a true Freshman.
3) Injuries/in-season attrition are largely nonexistent.
These issues can wreak havoc even on an amazingly talented team. I’d point to the NY Mets if I had any faith that some of you thought about anything beyond CFB. That’s ok. Like the O’Dowd situation, depth with 85 scholarships isn’t always a given, even for the best. USC has also had issues at other OL positions. Nick Howell is questionable in the opener due to a gimp ankle. This weekend word was released that WR and probable starter Ronald Johnson had broken his collarbone. Johnson would have helped take some heat off of Damien Williams in the passing game for the Freshman QB. But they just reload, right? Maybe David Ausberry can pick up the slack. Oh, maybe not. It simply isn’t a given. Shareece Wright, a starting CB, is also reported to be out for the season because he’s not academically eligible. Again, when a program takes a barrage of hits, but hits that are expected, they can sometimes make it through. If they take those hits and then lose a lot of practice and playing time to injury and off the field issues from players that are expected to play, then the problems can build on themselves.
Schedule
USC’s game against Ohio State has everyone that loves CFB excited, and most everyone is also confused. Who should be the favorite? Is the winner a frontrunner for the MNC game? Who replaces more? Most tend to fall on the side of the USC victory. They were great last year against OSU, why not again? OSU lost a lot, right? In reality, it’s possible that both of these teams have multiple losses before the bowl games. Still, bet on Pryor and the jortsquad here.
Notre Dame is better than many think. So is Cal.
USC can’t seem to handle at least one Oregon team per year lately. Maybe neither of those schools will be a problem this year, but another Pac 10 school could be. Pick one not from the state of Washington and you have a shot at being right.
My bet is that USC loses 3 games this year. For all of the above reasons I’ve cited. I wouldn’t actually bet that without getting odds, not because I don’t believe it, but because I could get better odds than straight up because I can afford a trip to Vegas if I feel like being stupid.
This is a team that is getting the benefit of the doubt going into this season because of recent history and the publicity of their recruiting prowess. They’ve got hidden or misjudged issues that are going to derail things for them, and early. Yes, they will roll over SJSU like a steamer through Dick Tomey’s diaper. Then it gets real. Injuries, youth, inexperience, hubris, hype and schedule will all play a role in sending this team to 9-3.
Thoughts?
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Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 1 hour, 10 minutes ago
Raoulduke,
Don’t be a tool. I kid, I kid. Who’s said I was qualified? Last time I checked this is the internet and everyone who can type can offer an opinion. Shit, half the folks offering up opinions on this blog and most sport blogs have no clue what they’re talking
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I.M. Hipp commented on the blog post State of the Union – NU Basketball, Part 1 (or Why We Are Where We Are) 1 hour, 34 minutes ago
If NU really wants to win they need to take a page from TO’s coaching career.
1. Never let great talent leave the state, Nebraska is desolate for talent so when a good player comes around you have to land him.
2. Develop a “system” where talent can flourish and help the team.
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Want to plant my feet on Rampart Street… 2 hours, 28 minutes ago
I am so irritated you guys are so good yet I am rooting for you. Saw the BC/MTM guy predicted you to final four.
That would be awesome.
Sic em and shit.
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whiskey commented on the blog post Jack Swarbrick Causes Server Meltdown 2 hours, 38 minutes ago
Nate, I think your argument is pretty solid for the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 10 but not so much on the Big 10. If you look at the 2009 Sagarin strength of sked: ND-37, Ohio St-50, Iowa-41, Penn St-73. Not so sure joining the Big 10 really helps ND’s chances. With
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post All Signs Point to March Madness Expanding to 96 Teams 2 hours, 42 minutes ago
The NCAA, apparently, could fuck up a soup sandwich. Piss on Myles Brand’s greedy grave.
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 2 hours, 48 minutes ago
Mr. Bateman – First let me say I’m not trying to be an asshole or pick a fight. This is a great column and great fun to read.
Re this:
I think Kiffin’s staff is competent enough, particularly Papa Kiffin (DC), John Baxter (a pretty good ST coach), and Todd McNair is a decent RB
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bigdukesix commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 3 hours, 35 minutes ago
Kiffin’s father is a great coach, but the rest of that staff isn’t. Orgeron and Kiffin are both good, dirty recruiters and mediocre to poor gameday coaches.
How important is that in college football? How good of a gameday coach is Mack Brown? Greg Davis?
Orgeron is actually a damn fine defensive line coach,
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Tim commented on the blog post NIT Preview – Seton Hall 3 hours, 39 minutes ago
How much longer to football season?
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Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 4 hours ago
CTJ,
Always impassioned. I agree with you that his delay had to do with not being eligible to sign rather than awaiting for the smoke to settle. However, the point is not with motive but with opportunity. Maybe the kid and his family don’t know anything and just trudged along with his planned
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CloseToJumping commented on the blog post Beat the Barkers NCAA Tourney Bracket 4 hours, 52 minutes ago
I am angling for the weekend with SizzleChest. I am hoping to channel his evil in the right directions.
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Casey Heathcott commented on the blog post Want to plant my feet on Rampart Street… 5 hours ago
Interesting read by a Kentucky writer: Apparently Kansas and Baylor are the only two teams with a shot at winning it all. http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100316/COLUMNISTS01/303160023
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Mister Mike commented on the blog post State of the Union – NU Basketball, Part 1 (or Why We Are Where We Are) 5 hours, 19 minutes ago
I get what you’re saying, but honestly, it’s a cop out. Period. If the AD was to actually commit some resources into building a program, we would be competitive and probably would even give K-State a run for its money. We may never be a KU, but we sure as hell wouldn’t
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J Rog commented on the blog post Bienvenidos a Miami: Heat Preview 6 hours, 7 minutes ago
Totally agree re: RJ. I’m hesitant to shout it from the mountain tops until he does it against a contending team. So far his success has been against 2nd tier teams.
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Sancho wrote a new blog post: 2010 Football Schedule Released 6 hours, 12 minutes ago
09/05/10 at Texas Tech
09/11/10 vs. UAB * Ford Stadium
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10/02/10 at Rice * Houston, Texas
10/09/10 vs. Tulsa * Ford Stadium
10/16/10 at Navy Annapolis, Md.
10/23/10 vs. Houston * Ford Stadium
10/30/10 at Tulane * New Orleans, La.
11/06/10 at UTEP * El Paso, Texas
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11/27/10
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James commented on the blog post Things To Do While Not Watching OU in the NCAA Tourney 6 hours, 26 minutes ago
Nate, agreed on the buying players. What does the NCAA do? Oh yeah, you “vacate wins”. I vacated my bowels this morning.
I was busting your balls on Oklahoma. I have had some good times in some of the surprisingly scenic areas. Also, Maker’s is my poison and who would ever
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Burnt Orange Wookiee commented on the blog post Bienvenidos a Miami: Heat Preview 6 hours, 29 minutes ago
The emergence of RJ being what we thought he would be seems pretty big. Oh, and that Ginobili guy is playing pretty good right now. Seeing Manu be Manu always brings a smile to my face.
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The Arkansas Razorbacks’ 2010 signing class did a good job of filling areas of need and adding size, speed, and talent to Bobby Petrino’s roster.
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Ibas water bottle commented on the blog post All Signs Point to March Madness Expanding to 96 Teams 6 hours, 58 minutes ago
Somewhere in rehab Sean Sutton is pissed this didn’t happen 4 years ago.
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These guys rebound above the rim and
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J Rog wrote a new blog post: Reggie Miller is a Bad Man 7 hours, 36 minutes ago
If you haven’t yet, I highly recommend watching ESPN’s latest 30 for 30: Winning Time about the Indiana Pacer’sReggie Miller’s rivalry with the New York Knicks in the early 90’s. Anyone that can make Spike Lee look stupid is a friend of mine.
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Nordberg commented on the blog post Texas finishes sweep of Iowa 7 hours, 54 minutes ago
Green and then Workman I’d imagine.
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J Rog wrote a new blog post: Bienvenidos a Miami: Heat Preview 8 hours, 1 minute ago
If we can score, we have a chance. The Heat are a poor team in a mediocre conference this year and don’t come with a lot of fire power. The one thing they can do is play defense, holding teams to 95.2 points per game, 5th best in the NBA. Dorrell Wright returns from a
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Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Things To Do While Not Watching OU in the NCAA Tourney 8 hours, 9 minutes ago
coloradoag:
First of all, I’ve very seriously thought your proposal #9 over. See: Calipari, John. People don’t seem to care if you buy basketball players. Only if you do it blatantly (USC) or you call/text them too much.
Oklahoma (outside of Oklahoma City and Tulsa metropolitan areas) is a lot of fun if you’re
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 8 hours, 10 minutes ago
Ha ha ha ha! It’s Joel Osteen’s world. You just live in it.
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admin commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 8 hours, 10 minutes ago
Ha ha ha ha! It’s Joel Osteen’s world. You just livesin in it.
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admin commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 8 hours, 10 minutes ago
Ha ha ha ha! It’s Joel Osteen’s world. You just live sin in it.
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ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Beat the Barkers NCAA Tourney Bracket 8 hours, 17 minutes ago
I will own that tote bag. And it will hold my porn.
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James commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 8 hours, 33 minutes ago
Baylor has the horses to make it to Indy, but Scott Drew is the Mike Gundy of college hoops. He’ll find a way to blow it.
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HenryJames commented on the blog post Robinson can, no? 9 hours, 7 minutes ago
Yes, it sounds like he is planning on hitting Texeira third.
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Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 9 hours, 19 minutes ago
“And I can understand the Longhorn fan thinking mighty Baylor goes all the way. After they bitch slapped the Horns three times this year, they are the basketball equivilent of the three foot long rat my wife saw in the garage.”
I actually like Baylor based on how they played Kansas and to an extent KSU.
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ChrisApplewhite said:
August 31st, 2009 at 10:21 pm
I’m with you. Lost a ton off the defense, a true freshman QB in an unexciting scheme, and they have to travel to tOSU.
They still play in the Pac-10 and will still probably win it, but this’ll be the weakest USC team since 2001 or 02.
scagnetti said:
September 1st, 2009 at 12:01 am
agreed.
i see losses to Cal, OSU and tOSU, to START.
Flamingmonkey said:
September 1st, 2009 at 1:41 am
I’m with you that I think USC is vastly overrated this year, and I think they’ll lose two games, and I could defintely see three losses. I disagree though that the Buckeyes will be one of those losses. My reason? USC has a freshman QB. I know that sounds like a strange reason to be FOR a team winning on the road in a hostile enviroment, but hear me out.
With a freshman at quarterback I think Carroll will come out with a very conservative game plan, and given they have 1,736 five star running backs in their stable, I think they’ll wear on that OSU defense, while at the same time keeping their own untested defense off the field. Further I think the whole team (who are talented , even they fail to live up to their own lofty standards) come out with their hair on fire. All they’re going to be hearing about leading up to that game is how they can’t win in the horseshoe with a true frosh at QB. When was the last time Pete Carroll had a team that was the UNDERDOG? A disrespected USC team with something to prove, going against a choke-riddled Big Ten team at night on national television? Unless Pryor really is the next Vince Young, I like USC’s chances.
Then they’ll promptly lose 2 out of 3 between Cal, Notre Dame and Oregon. If I had to guess I’d say Cal and Oregon.
Bob in Houston said:
September 1st, 2009 at 5:52 am
I heard a squawker (on ESPN radio, I think) say that this year’s group of linebackers are faster than last year’s, for whatever that’s worth.
probablymaybe said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:02 am
Conventional wisdom says you’re right CTJ. I’m just paranoid right now that Texas we’ll go undefeated, but not get in the MNC due to an undefeated SEC team and a undefeated USC/OSU team.
coloradoag said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:16 am
Undefeated Big 12 teams are not left out of the MNC game.
Hiphopopotamus said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:28 am
I agree with just about everything you said and yet I’m still sold on them. I can’t explain it, call me Kirk Herbstreit I guess but with that offensive line and slew of running backs, I still think they’re going to be awfully tough to beat.
HenryJames said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:39 am
Their offense has been inconsistent ever since Chow left with the exception of 2005, and Kiffin gets credit for that offense like Barry Switzer gets credit for coaching the Dallas Cowboys.
nordberg said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:45 am
“Undefeated Big 12 teams are not left out of the MNC game.”
They would be if Florida and USC are also undefeated.
And while I’d like to think that would be the final nail in the BCS coffin, we’d probably just hear that we shouldn’t have played Louisiana-Monroe, and that would be that.
t1climb1 said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:54 am
I disagree Nordberg. If we and USC are undefeated, we go. We are ranked ahead of them to begin and would have a better win on our schedule beating the number 3 ranked Sooners.
Vasherized said:
September 1st, 2009 at 7:13 am
I agree with 9-3.
Losses coming at OSU, Cal, and either Oregon or the next week at Arizona State.
I like Pryor but am not high on the Buckeyes either. They probably lose to Penn State and to another team they shouldn’t like Illinois at home. Losing two games in the Big 10 is like 7 in the SEC or some shit.
texasengr said:
September 1st, 2009 at 7:21 am
I predicted USC losing to OSU a few weeks ago. It’s pretty easy to get people to bite on that bet. I have felt exactly the same way, and it pleases me greatly to see someone finally do the leg work on this.
I don’t care how many times USC loses as long as it happens. The more embarrassing and shocking the better. There’s no reason to worry about an unbeaten Big 10 team if Texas takes care of business. The Big 10 — the current butt of every joke among the major conferences.
nordberg said:
September 1st, 2009 at 7:37 am
“I disagree Nordberg. If we and USC are undefeated, we go. We are ranked ahead of them to begin and would have a better win on our schedule beating the number 3 ranked Sooners.”
Their schedule is harder. But yeah, it would probably be pretty close.
jonestopten said:
September 1st, 2009 at 7:38 am
They are ranked #9 in the Jones Top Ten (for what it is worth):
http://www.jonestopten.com
I agree with the math that says USC leaps Texas if both are undefeated. I’m in the minority.
TaylorTRoom said:
September 1st, 2009 at 7:57 am
Polls are most fluid at the top early in the season. I expect the winner of the Buckeye/Trojan game to vault to #2.
Huckleberry said:
September 1st, 2009 at 7:58 am
Agreed. And that winner will probably be rejumped by the Texas/OU winner.
yoteach said:
September 1st, 2009 at 8:09 am
I don’t understand the logic of the people on here who think USC is going to beat Ohio State. Did you watch the Fiesta Bowl last year? Ohio State almost beat us last year. They always have a solid defense and Pryor is only going to be better.
So USC is just going to trot into the horseshoe at night and an 18 year old kid is going to lead a one dimensional offense to victory? I don’t get that at all.
Art Vandelay said:
September 1st, 2009 at 8:18 am
If USC loses more than two games I’ll buy a Business Phone System from Roy Williams…. who for some reason is unshaven and appearing in an ad on the top right of my screen.
randywatson said:
September 1st, 2009 at 8:51 am
I see two losses, not three. If they lose because Barkley just sucks, then one of Mustain or Corp could probably step in and do okay.
They have stout lines. Plenty of talent at RB and WR.
I do not believe their defense will drop off all that much. They lost their linebackers, but their replacements are talented guys who have been in the system for 2-3 years.
I would love to see them lose 3. I just doubt that they do.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:54 am
“Undefeated Big 12 teams are not left out of the MNC game.”
Neither should SEC teams, but Auburn says, ‘hi.’
Florida could go unbeaten. One of USC & Ohio State & Penn State could go unbeaten.
Va Tech could go unbeaten. Cal can go unbeaten if they get past USC…
If 3 teams go unbeaten… we are not in good shape to make it. Our OOC makes even KSU blush.
texastough said:
September 1st, 2009 at 8:56 am
I don’t think its a given that USC’s strength of schedule will be THAT much better than ours this year. Last year the two teams played very similar schedules, and ours ranked 14 and USC’s ranked 16. Last year we played Arkansas but USC played Virginia. USC played tOSU and Notre Dame last year too. Granted Texas Tech and Missouri were better last year, and Notre Dame was worse. But Baylor and Kansas should be better this year, as well as OSU. We get the benefit of not playing ISU or KSU, who will combine to win one Big 12 game. And while our nonconference schedule gets ridiculed, those teams will probably have winning records in their conferences.
Bottom line is that if the Big 12 teams we play have strong years, our schedule strength could rank in the same ballpark as USC’s again this year. If both USC and Texas end the year undefeated it will come down to a media beauty contest and I think Texas gets the benefit of the doubt because of how last year ended, plus McCoy’s heisman hype, plus the perception that the Big12 is a little better than the Pac10.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:58 am
USC always benefits relative to us because they play 9 conference games whereas we just play 8. That would change if we play in the big xii champ game but only marginally if we play the same opponent AGAIN in the champ game.
parlinhall said:
September 1st, 2009 at 9:28 am
SC is on fire.
probablymaybe said:
September 1st, 2009 at 9:39 am
I think we’ll win the human votes, but lose the computer votes by a sufficient enough margin to put us on the outside looking in a undefeated SEC team and undefeated USC situation. Replace USC with OSU, CAL, PSU, or VaTech and I think we’d be ok, but it wouldn’t be a given. Especially if OU and OSU have disappointing seasons.
Hypothetically, OU loses to BYU or Miami, NEB, and Texas
OSU loses to GEO, OU, and Texas
patronsaint said:
September 1st, 2009 at 9:58 am
were poor against Oregon State, Arizona, and Arizona State for sure.
I watched USC’s offense trip all over themselves against Arizona last year. That was the best example of the whole being less than the sum of the parts that I’d ever seen. Weird game.
uthookem said:
September 1st, 2009 at 10:02 am
Wow, you fellas worry a lot.
September 1st, 2009 at 10:13 am
If UT goes undefeated they play for the ’ship, strength of schedule won’t matter. We’ll have beat another top 3 team and people know how good we are, plus, and the most important thing, we start higher in the polls. The argument that ND could beat USC is laughable.
coloradoag said:
September 1st, 2009 at 10:19 am
[quote]The argument that ND could beat USC is laughable.[/quote]
What is laughable is who USC has dropped games to the past few years with far better talent on their sidelines than they have this year. The notion that ND can knock off a young USC team at home? Not that laughable.
nordberg said:
September 1st, 2009 at 10:37 am
“The argument that ND could beat USC is laughable.”
Is it as funny as Stanford beating USC?
Burnt Orange Wookiee said:
September 1st, 2009 at 10:47 am
I’m with Blake. LSU clawed back into the title game because they were so high in the polls to begin with . When everyone assumes you’re one of the two best teams in the nation coming in, you don’t shake that unless if your loss(es) are pretty definitive losses. The SEC was considered beyond reproach in its strength that year from near bottom to top, and LSU’s losses were triple OT and a close one with Arkansas I believe (could be wrong). Granted, the Big XII isn’t considered to be NFL lite like the SEC, and OU pulled the smokescreen over their loss with consecutive 60 point outings, but y’all get the point.
I don’t remember where USC was ranked the year they got left out, but I’ll wager that OU was pre-ranked ahead of USC in 2003 so boomer got the nod over USC when the lazy coaches had to decide between those one loss teams. Texas won’t get bumped nor demoted if we win out. We have the halo heading into the season, it’s ours to lose I’d say unless we look mediocre in all our wins and a USC beats every team they play by an average of three TDs (including tOSU).
Burnt Orange Wookiee said:
September 1st, 2009 at 10:52 am
Good points on ND beating USC though. They choke one a season, and I’d love to see it happen. Although they choke one that is unexpected, and if the media is overdoing the “ND is better than most think” tag line, then Carrol will have them ready. Look forward to the game nonetheless.
Nickel Rover said:
September 1st, 2009 at 11:34 am
The Notre Dame, Ohio St., and Cal games are all on the road.
New QB vs. a Jon Tenuta defense in South Bend is a good matchup for the Irish Defense, even if it’s still a few years away from BCS level strength and the Irish Offense is going against what might be a down year for the SoCal defense.
If you think Barkley can win in the Horseshoe against Terrelle Pryor…
Cal has the veteran secondary that could make a big difference. I think Notre Dame is USC’s best shot of those 3 games and it’s pretty 50-50.
Everyone is going to load up on the run and blitz Barkley into submission.
probablymaybe said:
September 1st, 2009 at 11:35 am
“Wow, you fellas worry a lot.”
I’m not losing any sleep over it at this point, but I like playing the “if” game (past, present, and future tenses).
September 1st, 2009 at 11:47 am
Not worried either. It would BE HIGHLY IMPROBABLE to have 2 other undefeated teams. But its naive and just wrong to say, “We have nothing to worry about if we just win out.”
Our OOC has given other teams an ‘in’ to vault us. We have to win and hope others lose. This is NOT true of Florida or OU or any other of a myriad of teams.
CloseToJumping said:
September 1st, 2009 at 12:44 pm
Thanks for the various responses. I enjoyed reading pretty much all of them. I have a few follow-ups to some of the points.
I agree with those that don’t think we could count on getting the benefit of the doubt in a 3 undefeated teams situation if the 3 teams are all BCS schools. I think it is more likely that there are 0 or 1 undefeated and a slew of 1 loss teams. If that is the case, we’re wrecked, unless we’re the only undefeated team. Our non-con is too weak this year and the Big 12 in general is going to look a lot more pedestrian than it has in the past.
Anyone not taking Notre Dame seriously as a top 25 team this season is just being lazy. I’ve been typing about them since the end of last year and a few other folks on this blog have as well, and it isn’t because we have an affinity for that school. It also isn’t because they beat a pathetic Hawaii team in a bowl last season. They’re simply going to be a decent ball club playing a relatively easy schedule. Klausen has talent, as does Tate and a number of offensive returners. Defensively, they’ve got a coaching staff that knows what it is doing and talent on the squad. I don’t see them being more than a 9-3 team, but 1 of those 9 wins could well be USC.
You always hear the talking heads throw out stupid stuff like “their LBs this year will be faster than their LBs last year”. Hell, that might even be true. It doesn’t make them better. Everick Rawls was faster than Derrick Johnson. Cushing, Maiava, Maualuga, and Matthews were all high draft picks (Maiava in the 4th is still high to me). The concept of replacing that level and combination of talent, depth, and experience with something better is absolutely, utterly, absurd. Whatever ESPN guy that said that should have his mouth sewn shut.
When I think of this season’s USC defense, I imagine it could look a lot like the 2005 defense. That defense was ok, nothing great. It blossomed down the line to be the 2008, and that is what talent PLUS experience actually looks like. That ain’t 2009 for them.
edsp said:
September 1st, 2009 at 6:19 pm
I’ve been saying for six months that even a 2003, 2005 type USC team would have trouble reaching the MNC game just because of the schedule. USC ‘05 shouldn’t have won in South Bend. This team, rebuilding as you point out, has all kinds of road threats (Irish, Columbus, Berkeley, Eugene) and trap games (UCLA, Oregon State, Stanford).
At 10-2, USC probably DESERVES a spot in this year’s title game. The way the polls work, that ain’t happening. My question is who to root AGAINST in USC-Ohio State and USC-Notre Dame. I hate ‘em all, and all three could be in the national title hunt.
September 1st, 2009 at 8:32 pm
The only teams that upset USC are from the Pac 10, which ND is not. They have no idea how to play USC. The only year they’ve been close recently is the year with Quinn and ND will not replicate that kind of success any time soon.
CloseToJumping said:
September 19th, 2009 at 9:41 pm
Let’s go ahead and count UW as loss #1 for the Trojans. This is a weak power and more will come, as predicted.
Art Vandelay said:
November 17th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
“Art Vandelay said:
September 1st, 2009 at 8:18 am
If USC loses more than two games I’ll buy a Business Phone System from Roy Williams…. who for some reason is unshaven and appearing in an ad on the top right of my screen.”
CTJ deserves some props here. Have Roy give me a call.
Barking Carnival — Blog — The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly - Texas 35, UCF 3 said:
November 22nd, 2009 at 6:15 pm
[...] It’s been obvious for weeks that Iowa was a 6-6 team walking around in undefeated clothing, and the Hawkeyes finally played down to their true capabilities, sucking their way to a 17-10 defeat at Northwestern, of all places. The Oregon Ducks also proved to be an illusion, going down to ignominious defeat to the school with a Christmas tree for a mascot a mere week after pounding a Southern Cal team that is proving to be a mediocrity in its own right (see CloseToJumping’s prescient article: USC Reloads, Right? Wrong.). [...]