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Forecasting The Big 12 South – 2009

Posted by TaylorTRoom on July 30th, 2009 under Football, Uncategorized

Anybody have a problem with speculative guessing, supported by a framework of decent analysis techniques but sketchy inputs?  I didn’t think so.

In trying to predict the Big 12 South this year, what information do we have to work with? Only the schedules. Any power ratings of teams are just guesses and predictions right now. Once the games start, and the results come in, we’ll have a much better idea of relative quality and chances to win. I tried a little exercise where I used Phil Steele’s predicted power ratings, projected a resulting point spread and odds of each team winning. Here’s a sample:

Texas Pts Odds
ULM -35 0.99
@Wyo -32 0.98
TT -17 0.84
UTEP -28 0.98
CU -23 0.96
OU -1 0.51
@Mizzou -19 0.88
@OSU -6 0.59
UCF -30 0.98
@BU -18 0.86
KU -25 0.97
@TAMU -20 0.9

I added the odds of each game up to come up with an expected win total, and then multiplieded the odds of each game to predict the chances of an undefeated season. I took the 12th root of that, to create a rough even chance of winning each game (because I’m too lazy to do Monte Carlo modeling macros), and used that in the binomial distribution function to figure chances of winning 10 or 11 games. Here’s what that looked like…

Expected (sum) 10.44
Exp. B12 rec 6.51
root odds 0.85
   
Bowl Eligible Odds 99.94%
10 win odds 29.06%
11 win odds 30.77%
12 win odds 14.94%

This says Texas is expected to go 10.44 – 1.56 (ha-ha), go 6.51 – 1.49 in the Big 12, and has almost a 15% chance of going undefeated (through the regular season.  Assume the B12S champ has a 60 – 65% chance of winning the B12 CG and 50% chance of winning the bowl game). Here it is for the other B12 south teams:

OU          
BYU -10 0.65   Expected (sum) 9.375
Idaho St -40 0.99   Exp. B12 rec 6.135
Tulsa -29 0.98   root odds 0.76
@Mia -8 0.62      
BU -23 0.93   Bowl Eligible Odds 98.87%
Texas 1 0.49   10 win odds 24.45%
@KU -17 0.84   11 win odds 14.08%
KSU -29 0.98   12 win odds 3.72%
@NU -8 0.62      
TAMU -30 0.99      
@tt -9 0.635      
OSU -10 0.65      
OSU          
UGA -1.5 0.515   Expected (sum) 9.345
Hou -19 0.88   Exp. B12 rec 5.97
Rice -35 0.99   root odds 0.74
Gram -40 0.99      
@TAMU -24 0.94   Bowl Eligible Odds 98.13%
Mizzou -24 0.94   10 win odds 21.64%
@BU -11 0.72   11 win odds 11.05%
Texas 6 0.41   12 win odds 2.59%
@ISU -32 0.98      
TT -10 0.7      
CU -23 0.93      
@OU 10 0.35      
           
TT          
ND -40 0.99   Expected (sum) 7.81
Rice -35 0.99   Exp. B12 rec 4.52
@Texas 17 0.16   root odds 0.57
@Hou -6 0.59      
UNM -35 0.99   Bowl Eligible Odds 78.59%
KSU -17 0.84   10 win odds 4.48%
@NU 7 0.395   11 win odds 1.08%
TAMU -23 0.93   12 win odds 0.12%
KU -11 0.72      
@OSU 10 0.3      
OU 9 0.365      
@BU -4 0.54      
           
TAMU          
UNM -25 0.95   Expected (sum) 4.625
Utah St -18 0.86   Exp. B12 rec 1.955
UAB -14 0.78   root odds 0.21
Ark 22 0.08      
OSU 24 0.06   Bowl Eligible Odds 2.18%
@KSU 9 0.365   10 win odds 0.00%
@TT 23 0.07   11 win odds 0.00%
ISU -11 0.72   12 win odds 0.00%
@CU 11 0.28      
@OU 30 0.01      
BU 10 0.35      
Texas 20 0.1      
           
BU          
@WF -7 0.605   Expected (sum) 6.825
Conn -18 0.86   Exp. B12 rec 3.38
NWSt -35 0.99   root odds 0.45
Kent St -35 0.99      
@OU 23 0.07   Bowl Eligible Odds 48.04%
@ISU -18 0.86   10 win odds 0.71%
OSU 11 0.28   11 win odds 0.11%
NU 8 0.38   12 win odds 0.01%
@Mizzou -4 0.54      
Texas 18 0.14      
@TAMU -10 0.65      
TT 4 0.46      

You can quibble with the spreads and odds if you like. Disagree with power ratings?  Revise them and the odds to update to your liking.  I like Phil Steele’s ratings because:

1.  He puts thought into them

2.  I didn’t develop them, so they are free of my personal bias.

Once the season starts, I can update with real results and Sagarin predictions. Observations:

Phil Steele really likes Baylor this year. He has them rated notably higher than Wake Forest, Connecticut, and TAMU.   I was skeptical, but we noted in the earlier post about defenses that the Baylor DC knows what he’s doing, and he only loses three starters.  That team is not all Robert Griffin.
Texas’ two biggest games are OU and @OSU.
OU’s biggest game is Texas of course, but @Miami, @NU, and @TT are threats.
OSU’s biggest games are UGA, Texas, and @OU. Note that two are at home.
Tech looks to have a big dropoff this year.
The Baylor @ TAMU game could be a lot of fun. I kind of expect TAMU to be better than predicted here. One of the forecast tools I use is “How are a team’s fortunes affected if their most important player is hurt?” TAMU is relatively immune to that- does it really change them much if Johnson or Fuller is out? Baylor, on the other hand, may be near-Rice crappy if Griffin were hurt…and he is a running QB who has to play UT and OU.   Obviously, an injury to McCoy or Bradford will quickly revise UT and OU’s hopes in 2009.
Thoughts?

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32 Responses

  1. NorthDallasSooner said:

    July 30th, 2009 at 7:03 pm

    Are the predicted records being driven by the sum of odds each game? If so, a team with a tougher schedule than another will have a lower predicted win count in the model. So, if UT were playing a mid-level BCS league foe or higher lever non-BCS foe instead of UCF or Wyoming, it’s predicted win total would be lower.

    Let’s just agree on this. Oklahoma and Texas are the two best teams in this league and are very, very closely matched. At 51/49 in the model it means there’s 1% difference between the two in expectation.

    If there’s a wild card, it’s you going to Stillwater. They piss down their leg in the fourth quarter every time they see you, but this might just be the year they get you….

  2. ed said:

    July 30th, 2009 at 7:30 pm

    Good stuff. Thanks for the math . . . though I was always more conversant with words than numbers.

    On the word side: Aggies are underrated. Baylor is overrated. Oklahoma State is a better bet to go 8-4 than 10-2. Tech will lose to Houston or New Mexico.

    That about covers it.

  3. TaylorTRoom said:

    July 30th, 2009 at 8:00 pm

    NDS, you’re right, which I think explains why UT has a over/under on wins than OU on the Vegas odds post.

    ed, it’s hard for me to imagine the Ags being as bad as Steele has them also, but their defense was awful last year. The Big 12 defense post showed that they were ineffective defending running and passing plays. They have got to get better against the run next year to have a chance, and they lost their DL from last year.

  4. KilgoreTrout said:

    July 30th, 2009 at 9:05 pm

    Even as bad as we (A&M) were last year we beat Colorado at home. We play them on the road this year, but only have a 1 in 4 chance of beating them? KSU lost their QB and I’m not sure they are going to be any good this year with the staff change and Juco flux. I also think the Baptist’s are overrated this year as well. They went 4-8 like we did but seem to be full of themselves this year. If Griffin el Tercero gets dinged they will be in a lot of hurt.

  5. TaylorTRoom said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 2:52 am

    Kilgore, you’re making a mistake in assuming that you win all the games you’re favored in and a few that would be upsets, too. History shows that a typical season involves in your favor an against you. Look, For the last couple of years, USC has been favored in every game they played, but still lost a vew. That’s due, mainly, to random variability. There will be days when your team underperforms and the other guys excel, and you get upset.

    Don’t like the Ag prediction? If the Ags exceed it, it will be due to them being a better team than Steele has them pegged at now.

  6. Ricky said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 5:59 am

    Kilgore, homecooking is pretty important and I imagine A&M has been terrible on the road recently while Colorado has been OK at home. Just look at UT vs. TT, outside of 2003 I don’t think they have put more than 3 TDs on us in a game in Austin since Brown took over, but they have beat us several times in Lubbock and outside of 2004 they have always played us close there. Plus, if Colorado is going to be decent this is their year, while its hard to see A&M being anything but a game or two better than last year.

  7. dmhamiltontx said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 6:22 am

    Great write-up. I wish more Texas fans would read this and have realistic expectations. This is a very good/great Texas squad. Still, they have only a 15% chance of getting to the title game undefeated. I think a reasonable goal for a top tier program like Texas is a national title every decade. Hopefully, some more conference titles.

  8. Nordberg said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 7:19 am

    I like that a&m has a 2% chance to become bowl eligible.

  9. StatsAreForLosers said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 7:24 am

    I am looking at the aTm schedule and am having a hard time coming up with two conf wins. The Aggies are only favored against ISU and large dogs to every other conference team. That along with my thought that they will be worse than advertised leads me to believe they lose to one of the first 3 and go “0 for” in conference. Unless they play themselves, I just don’t buy any conference win total greater than 1.

  10. Nordberg said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 7:45 am

    They could upset Baylor at home to pull them up to 5-7.

  11. Ag_in_TX said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 7:50 am

    Aggie Season Prediction:

    NEW MEXICO – W
    UTAH STATE – W
    UAB – W
    Arkansas – W (Swine is way down this year)
    OKLAHOMA STATE – W (Gundy always finds a way to lose in College Station)
    Kansas State – W (Snyder is rebuilding and is 134 years old)
    Texas Tech – L
    IOWA STATE – W
    at Colorado – W (CU sucks this year)
    at Oklahoma – L
    BAYLOR – W (Over the last quarter certury, A&M is 23-2 against Baylor)
    TEXAS – W (AGGIES IN COLLEGE STATION ALWAYS TOUGH!!!)

    10-2 AND BOWL BOUND BABY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    YEAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    (p.s. – if we go 6-6 and make it to a bowl, I will view it as a steop in the right direction).

  12. Arkansas State said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 8:04 am

    Can we get a&m on the schedule again?

  13. Travis said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 8:12 am

    Why would you say Arkansas is way down this year now maybe if your talking about actual pigs with swine flu but other than that they are going to have one heck of an Offense with mallot at qb, Im not saying they are going to contend for sec titles but they will be very much improved probably 7-5 including a win over the aggs.

  14. Travis said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 8:16 am

    I didn’t make it all the way through your post before I saw the other predictions I’m gonna agree with you on the 6-6 would be a huge step , but on a positive note Sherman is recruiting very well right now so you will get back

  15. BEHorn said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 8:22 am

    “BAYLOR – W (Over the last quarter certury, A&M is 23-2 against Baylor)”

    Over the last 1/50th of a century (the period involving many of the guys who will be on the field this year), you’re 1-1. Not quite so gaudy. But perhaps that 3-2 record since 2004 gives you cause for hope.

  16. TaylorTRoom said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 8:38 am

    We’ll have a good idea the first week. If the Ags beat New Mexico by 5 TDs, and Baylor loses to Wake Forest, all of the predictions for the two programs change.

  17. KilgoreTrout said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 9:48 am

    I am not saying we will definitely beat Cu in Bolder. I was saying having a 28% chance of beating a team we beat the year before when we sucked was kind of low. I think we can win 4 conference games this year (albeit against the bottom of the B12 barrel). I don’t know if we will win, I think we have a decent chance to win those 4 games. I hope we win 6 games this year but I think the best scenario is we win 7. I don’t think Baylor will win 6 games this year.

  18. Nordberg said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 10:03 am

    “I was saying having a 28% chance of beating a team we beat the year before when we sucked was kind of low.”

    1) You’re going to suck again this year. Maybe even suck more.

    2) Colorado will be better.

    3) It’s at Boulder.

    28% may be generous.

  19. Spoons said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 10:21 am

    dude, OU is .65, .62, .62, and .635 against byu, miami, nebraska, and tech, but we’re .96, .98, and .97 against tech, mizzou, and kansas? come on. and i don’t care that some are road and home. those are silly.

  20. Spoons said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 10:22 am

    sorry, meant .96 vs CU (not tech)

  21. TaylorTRoom said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 10:30 am

    ZPhil Steele has decent ratings for BYU, Miami, NU and Tech. He has Mizzou and KU down this year. Think .635 is low for OU? They haven’t won in Lubbock since 2003.

  22. BrickHorn said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 10:38 am

    Great post, TaylorT. I’ve had this gut feeling since last season that the Horns blew a golden opportunity that is unlikely to present itself again this year. Your 15% number – which represents merely our chance to get to the Big 12 title game undefeated – provides an objective explanation for my subjective fears.

  23. Scipio Tex said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 11:08 am

    TaylorT:

    Nice post, man. I think it’s a useful bucket of cold water on a fan base that, if you polled it, would probably tell us that an undefeated season is 50% likely or thereabouts.

    Couple of thoughts that I want input on from everyone:

    I think assigning a power percentage like this suggests a moderating impact on extremes in record – 0-8 or 8-0 – to the casual viewer but we know from experience that these events based on previous Big 12 seasons are not unlikely.

    The other influencing factors, of course, are that these wins and losses are whole numbers of 1. That’s a no-duh comment, but that does encourage more movement towards the ends of each bell curve. A losing team can’t win .37 of a game.

    Finally, these wins and losses interrelate. In other words, a whole win and whole loss are incurred in every contest. And as the percentages recalculate after each as the season progresses, the likelihood of extremes in distribution increase drastically once a team gets over a significant percentage hurdle.
    If this year’s Texas/OU game represents a 50-50 chance, then we know that the winner of that contest is very likely headed to a 7-1 or 8-0 season. They’ve shaken off the shackles of that massive percentage modifier.

  24. Huckleberry said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 11:18 am

    I took the 12th root of that, to create a rough even chance of winning each game (because I’m too lazy to do Monte Carlo modeling macros), and used that in the binomial distribution function to figure chances of winning 10 or 11 games.

    I like this guy.

  25. Huckleberry said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 11:37 am

    Nice post, man. I think it’s a useful bucket of cold water on a fan base that, if you polled it, would probably tell us that an undefeated season is 50% likely or thereabouts.

    To reinforce the point, using only the power ratings and standard devations from my new EWP method (which, by the way, I still need to post results from on past seasons), if 2008 Texas were to play their 12-game regular season schedule all over again, we would have a little over a 22% chance of going undefeated. This despite the fact that we know how good that team was.

  26. Vasherized said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 12:02 pm

    Huck,

    Get back to us when you have your mathematical shit together. None of this take five posts to get it right stuff, even if the final result would give Fermat a posthumous chubby.

  27. Tim said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 1:41 pm

    Wow, Aggie with only a 2% chance to make it to a bowl game. You also have Arkansas having a higher chance to beat Aggie than Texas.

  28. TaylorTRoom said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 3:01 pm

    Yeah, I went outside Steele’s rnkings for that game, assuming the Ags will be at their best for that game.

  29. KilgoreTrout said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 7:10 pm

    Nordberg, not sure why you think CU will be much better this year. I haven’t seen where they have been recruiting all that well. I see that game as a tossup currently. I obviously feel we will be much improved over last year (and you don’t). I have seen online articles saying we are going to go 1-11 and crap like that.

    Everyone seems to think Sherman is a bad coach because we went 4-8 last year. They made mistakes and have admitted as much. Some of the improvement this year will not result in wins as we don’t have the players in place to compete with the top 4 teams in the South. We should have more competitive games than in the past few years.

    That said I think we win 6 games this year. We’ll know after the 1st 3 non conference games if we are going to be competitive in conference.

  30. dick said:

    July 31st, 2009 at 9:52 pm

    6 wins isn’t out of the question. Most likely is somewhere in btw 4 and 5 wins according to common sense and the numbers. The offense alone should be enough for 5 or 6.

  31. johnnymac said:

    August 1st, 2009 at 3:13 am

    Well done with the math. I like it.

  32. Dr. Clarkus said:

    August 4th, 2009 at 10:59 am

    It is 50/50 if we go undefeatead this year; it either happens or it don’t.

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  • James commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   9 hours, 26 minutes ago

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    CJD -

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    uthookem-

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