Football Articles
Season College Football Betting Lines
Posted by Scipio Tex on July 28th, 2009 under Football
If Vegas is so freaking smart, how come it’s in Vegas? The answer is, of course, that Vegas isn’t smart.
It’s wise.
Trips fed you individual game early lines. Here are your early CFB season odds.
National Title
Florida 2/1
Oklahoma 9/2
Texas 11/2
Southern California 6/1
Ohio State 12/1
Alabama 15/1
Comments:
Florida 2-1? Really? I think your insurance here with a Gator bet is that one regular season loss will be characterized as “a fluke” and “part of playing in the SEC” and won’t necessarily cost them a championship bid. Interesting longshots? Hmmm, I can almost construct a fanciful scenario for California as a 35-1 long play. And UNC at 50-1. Of the favorites, I reckon much maligned Ohio State and Alabama offer the best value.
Expected 2009 Total Wins
Big 12
Texas – 10.5
Oklahoma – 9.5
Oklahoma St – 9
Nebraska – 8
Kansas – 8
Texas Tech – 8
Missouri – 6.5
Colorado – 6.5
A&M – 5.5
Kansas State – 5.5
Baylor – 5
Iowa State – N/A
Comments:
Do these win lines include bowls games? Conference championship games? I’m assuming no on the former and yes on the latter. The site doesn’t say.
I like:
A&M – UNDER
Baylor – OVER
OU – OVER
Randoms that I like:
Southern Mississippi – 8.5 OVER
Ohio State – 9.5 OVER
South Carolina – 6.5 UNDER
I like Southern Mississippi to win 10 games this year.
Ohio State has a forgiving schedule and Pryor is poised to put his stamp on the Buckeye program. He will fundamentally change what they’re about on offense in ways that even Jim Tressel can’t screw up.
The quality of OSU’s athletes is still higher than the rest of the Big 10.
South Carolina looks like a prime candidate for a meltdown even though they’re in the softer SEC East. Punk QB, overrated coach, massive graduation of NFL talent. They’ll start poorly and finish poorly.
What do you think?
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Patrick,
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Horn Brain said:
July 28th, 2009 at 6:30 pm
How does Vegas have our expected wins higher than OU’s, but then give them better odds at the National Championship?
Newy25 said:
July 28th, 2009 at 6:42 pm
I would be selling USC at 6/1. They have to completely retool their defense and will start either a redshirt freshman or freshman QB.
Pete Carroll drops a game every year with 20 first rounders on it. I wonder what he will do with a rebuilding roster…
Stuck in MN said:
July 28th, 2009 at 6:59 pm
HornBrain- because OU has a pair and actually schedules teams with a pulse for nonconference.
KilgoreTrout said:
July 28th, 2009 at 8:39 pm
I think the Ags will win 6 this year. No more than 7, however.
Scipio Tex said:
July 28th, 2009 at 8:51 pm
Newy:
USC has a shot at losing two games, I think. Bad QB play is typically their kryptonite and having a new one will create some adversity for them when they can’t bludgeon someone with their running game.
Kilgore:
Why and which six teams will they beat?
09/05/09 vs. NEW MEXICO COLLEGE STATION
09/19/09 vs. UTAH STATE COLLEGE STATION
09/26/09 vs. UAB COLLEGE STATION
10/03/09 vs. Arkansas Arlington, Texas
10/10/09 vs. OKLAHOMA STATE COLLEGE STATION
10/17/09 at Kansas State Manhattan, Kan.
10/24/09 at Texas Tech Lubbock, Texas
10/31/09 vs. IOWA STATE COLLEGE STATION
11/07/09 at Colorado Boulder, Colo.
11/14/09 at Oklahoma Norman, Okla.
11/21/09 vs. BAYLOR COLLEGE STATION
11/26/09 vs. TEXAS COLLEGE STATION
Looks like 4-8 or 5-7 to me. They also stand a good chance of losing 5 of their last 6.
Turn the page, Fred said:
July 29th, 2009 at 3:34 am
….thus ensuring that Matthews commits to USC.
Benito said:
July 29th, 2009 at 3:41 am
The win totals only include regular season games, not conference championship or bowl games.
StatsAreForLosers said:
July 29th, 2009 at 5:28 am
Scip-
You are giving the Aggies way too much credit. 3-9 or 2-10 are staring them in the face. I think the Aggies lose game after UAB. While you may think that the Aggies can win the IOWA STATE game, by kickoff the Aggies will be in complete implosion from a season of ineptitude. I give them 2 or 3 games because I do not know the state of NM US or UAB football.
soliver465 said:
July 29th, 2009 at 5:50 am
Stuck in MN
A pair of what, certainly not BCS Bowl game wins in the last 6 years.
Stuck in MN said:
July 29th, 2009 at 6:20 am
Stones, juevos, marbles, nads.
Look, I hate the OU program and everything those cheating bastards stand for, but they do provide a decent blueprint of what Mack and Deloss should do for scheduling if they ever decide to remove the skirts.
Blueshorn said:
July 29th, 2009 at 6:29 am
“How does Vegas have our expected wins higher than OU’s, but then give them better odds at the National Championship?”
Because the oddsmakers recognize zeroU’s penchant for getting to the title game when they don’t deserve it?
KilgoreTrout said:
July 29th, 2009 at 6:45 am
We win the 1st 3 non conference games, then beat KSU, ISU & Colorado. If we progress we should be able to beat the Baptists at home. We lost to KSU last year but I think they will be worse this year. Baylor should take a step back this year especially on defense and LT.
Stuck in MN said:
July 29th, 2009 at 6:59 am
I think the more interesting question is why do they give us better odds to win the Big 12 but OU better odds to win the national championship?
Are they saying that once in the BCS championship game, OU’s chances of winning that game are better than ours? Given OU’s history in the BCS, probably not. I think they are saying that in the event of a batch of 3 undefeateds, or 3 1-loss teams, OU is more likely to make the championship game than we are due to their stronger schedule/penchant for running up the score in November games.
Eskimohorn said:
July 29th, 2009 at 7:03 am
A&M has a favorable north schedule, playing the other 3 horrible teams in the conference. They have a shot at going 4-4 in conference, with an upset of Baylor or Tech. A lot depends on how Colorado and Arkansas are this year.
They are also staring down another 4-8 season, possibly 3-9, if they don’t have their shit together early on. 5-7 would be likely.
Nordberg said:
July 29th, 2009 at 7:24 am
“I think they are saying that in the event of a batch of 3 undefeateds, or 3 1-loss teams, OU is more likely to make the championship game than we are due to their stronger schedule/penchant for running up the score in November games.”
I fucking swear to god, if this shit happens again I will stop watching college football.
Nick The Greek said:
July 29th, 2009 at 7:31 am
Odds are all about spreading the money between teams so the house nets the vig, and ain’t out on the loser or winner…think about it…
uthookem said:
July 29th, 2009 at 7:33 am
Bullshit, Nordberg. You’ll always watch, just like the rest of us.
chitwood said:
July 29th, 2009 at 8:28 am
incorrect, Nick. That is an urban myth. Vegas definitely takes sides on bets.
chitwood said:
July 29th, 2009 at 8:36 am
as a follow up, on these futures bets, there is no traditional “vig” (such as laying 110 to win 100 on a normal bet). The vig is the shitty odds they lay you versus the true odds of the event happening.
UT_BKC said:
July 29th, 2009 at 8:47 am
Stuck – I really don’t want to start following OU’s scheduling practices. Yes, this year looks nice. BYU. Yay. A team that gets 10 wins in the MWC (look at the BCS teams they played and how ‘well’ they did against them). This is a nice game I guess, but how much credit should we really give them. Is anyone going to give us a ton of credit for beating a 10 win rice team last year? Should they?
Miami is fine. They got a BCS team on there. It’s not their fault that Miami sucks so much now. Just like it’s not our fault that 1) Arkansas sucked ass last year and 2) they decided to drop us this year.
Then we ge have Tulsa. Go 10 win CSUA teams (that can’t beat arkansas)!
Finally, there’s that D2 team they schedule. Yeah, takes a giant set of balls to schedule them.
We could definitely do better, but I don’t really think OU is the team we should be trying to mimic.
Stuck in MN said:
July 29th, 2009 at 9:28 am
What’s the difference between Lou-Monroe and a D2 team? The chances of either of Texas or OU losing that game approach levels so close to zero only Huck could calculate them. And I would say that any of BYU, Tulsa, or Miami would beat any of Wyoming, UTEP, and Rice.
I think the ideal non-conf schedule would include a legit top 25 program from a BCS conference, a couple of top 50-75 teams, and one total pushover to give you a rest week. Their schedule gets a lot closer to this than ours.
Now take a look at the next 6 years- OU has home and homes with FSU, ND and Tennessee while we have UCLA, Ole Miss and Minnesota. It is hard to predict how good these teams will be at the time that we play them, but at this moment I’d much rather have their schedule.
uthookem said:
July 29th, 2009 at 11:25 am
I think I’ll take UCLA, Ole Miss, and Minny over FSU, ND, and Tennessee.
UCLA, Ole Miss, and Minny all have new coaches that are building, and should be getting better over the next few years. Unless ND does something this year, they will still be re-building when OU plays them, and FSU is sort of in the same rut until Bowden retires. Tennessee could go either way, but I think UCLA will be ranked higher playing in the PAC-10 with fewer losses than Tennessee will take over the same time period.
Ole Miss > FSU
Minny > ND (on ranking only, not exposure/hype)
UCLA ~ Tenn
Just my thoughts.
UT_BKC said:
July 29th, 2009 at 11:36 am
Past 3 seasons:
FSU: 9-4, 7-6, 7-6
ND: 7-6, 3-9, 10-3 (They played in a bowl last year?!)
Tennessee: 5-7, 10-4, 9-4
UCLA: 4-8, 6-7, 7-6
Ole Miss: 9-4, 3-9, 4-8
Minnesota: 7-6, 1-11, 6-7
I will NOT give anyone credit for scheduling ND if they scheduled them in the last 4 or 5 years. I DO give them credit for scheduling Tenn. They are good at smelling blood in the water it seems. Tenn will be in the middle of rebuilding AGAIN after firing Kiffin.
We don’t play Rice this year. UCF instead. And Rice lost a close one to Tulsa last year.
BYU is a decent non BCS team, but I think they take a step backwards this year. Yes, they return a good QB and RB, but they lose a WR who accounted for almost half of their passing TDs, and they lose THREE starters on the line. Even in the MWC I think this will cause them to take a step back from their 3rd place finish. I don’t think they will really be too much better than UCF.
I’m just really not that impressed.
The General said:
July 29th, 2009 at 11:45 am
It does not matter how good OU’s schedule actually is, it matters how good it is perceived to be by journalists and SID’s.
UT_BKC said:
July 29th, 2009 at 11:47 am
General – True. I wish that BYU game were not so early. I think they will get more credit for it than they would have near the end of the season when BYU already had 2 or 3 losses.
Vasherized said:
July 29th, 2009 at 12:45 pm
OU’s schedule is better than ours no matter how you slice it.
In fact, there aren’t any national championship contenders that have a weaker OOS schedule than we do.
Which means we have to win every game, beat ranked teams convincingly (while keeping OU and OSU in the Top 10), and hope two other teams from a BCS conference don’t do the same.
Scipio Tex said:
July 29th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Yep. It will also play against us if we find ourselves in a group of one loss teams scenario – say, Florida, OU, USC.
Florida gets the SEC pass and USC gets the ESPN blowjob.
Nordberg said:
July 29th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
It wouldn’t suck or anything to go undefeated, and watch USC play Florida for the NC.
That would probably end my relationship with college football.
Vasherized said:
July 29th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
And Ohio State gets the mullet lube.
f Arkansas.
Jim Harrison said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:02 pm
Does USC get fellated post SEC/ESPN marriage?
Scipio Tex said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
Jim:
Yes.
In a “we’ve always dreamed that the SEC champion could finally play USC for the title as it should have been for the last five years” sort of way.
UT_BKC said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:06 pm
Vash – I don’t think that our schedule is too much weaker than OU, unless Miami is a lot better than expected. But I will concede that it is slightly better and will certainly be perceived as better.
UF though has a horrible schedule. Certainly not better than ours. Charleson Southern, Troy, FIU, and FSU. The first is D2, and the second 2 are on par with Wyoming and La-Monroe (who actually beat Troy and FIU last year).
Of course it won’t matter because UF plays in the SEC…
Orangechip said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
ESPN is not stupid. They have to appease ALL the big markets. Texas and USC and ND will always get big press. Mostly positive, too. They just won’t isolate a big chunk of their viewership.
Vasherized said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:08 pm
Does USC get fellated post SEC/ESPN marriage?
Hell yes. USC is Hollywood’s team, Disney’s HQ.
They’re hip, young, and edgy. Like a sportscenter broadcast. At least that’s what my program guide tells me.
Vasherized said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
Of course it won’t matter because UF plays in the SEC…
Exactly. Florida can lose to Ole Miss at home and a speech from Tim Tebow can make it all disappear.
Shermansrevenge said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting the under on South Carolina. There’s a new strength coach who appears to have lit a fire under the players during an off-season, and a new offensive line coach who appears to have made strides in improving the pitiful offensive line we had last year. The secondary did indeed take a big hit, but Darian Stewart is perhaps the best safety you’ve never heard of, certainly in the SEC. Finally, we’ve got a deep and athletic defensive line to go with a stud OLB in Eric Norwood.
As for Garcia? We’ll see. He’s stayed out of the headlines recently and the lack of QB depth may keep SOS from giving him the quick hook and wrecking his confidence. I think seven wins is a distinct possibility, given the positive impressions of the new coaching staff.
UT_BKC said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:27 pm
Yeah, ufortunately, OU ’settled’ the question as to wheter or not the big 12 South was better than the SEC’s champ. Now ESPN can get back to trying to get USC and and SEC team to play in the MNC.
Scipio Tex said:
July 29th, 2009 at 1:57 pm
Shermansrevenge:
In fact, SC has six new coaches this year. You view this as a positive? I’m not so sure.
I love Norwood. I also don’t doubt your ability to play solid run D. Your secondary lost three starters and your OL was fairly disgraceful last year.
There’s no question that seven wins is a possibility as we’re not exactly talking about getting to a BCS bowl, but SC just seems to check a lot of the boxes that I typically see in a program about to underperform.
Nonetheless, thanks for the civil conversation.
Flamingmonkeyass said:
July 29th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Is Michael Irvin one of those new coaches? If so you’re going to need a replacement:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090730/ap_on_re_us/us_accused_horse_molester;_ylt=AjYGNJRs0N3.8RncLZJV6pRH2ocA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1dXU1NGc1BHBvcwM1BHNlYwN5bi1jaGFubmVsBHNsawNwb2xpY2VzY21hbmM-
HeroinHarry said:
July 30th, 2009 at 3:32 am
Put a grand on both Florida and Texas and you’re pretty much on a freeroll.