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1. Antonio said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 7:56 am

   I prefer quinceneras.

2. jon said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 8:33 am

   considering that we need all the help we can get with our schedule, is there any chance kansas comes into austin with any sort of ranking?

3. Parlin Hall said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 8:44 am

   Interesting write-up as usual, Scipio. My thoughts:

   Nebraska takes the North, after losing to VT on the road.

   The defense will be much improved. Pelini kept the redshirts on a few monsters last year, which cost him a game but bodes well for the future. NU’s D-line should be one of the best in the Big 12. A healthy Suh is the Lombardi winner and possible first rounder.

   The offense will be better too, though by committee. Ganz–60% heart and 40% talent–will indeed be missed, but his John Belushi-like leadership always seemed to keep the parts from developing into something greater. “Food Fight!” is not an audible I like to hear from my QB. My guess is that RB Roy Helu will be second-team All Big 12 by season’s end, and will ultimately have a nice pro career.

   I wouldn’t worry about the WRs, as they’ll be used mainly to return kicks. To protect his new QB, Watson will likely go to a strong set with two TEs and run more. With the Big 12 over-designed to stop the spread, an offense that can get 4 yards per rush will look science-fictiony new.

   Jinxed by Hawkins’s desperate guarantee of ten wins, CU implodes but plays NU tough (as always).

   I give Missouri a slightly better chance of being good than you do.

   KU, with its pesky gunsel at the helm, has a shot, but only if the Fat Man can stop thinking about the Falcon.

4. Benito said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 9:31 am

   I think you, and pretty much everyone else, are WAY underestimating Mizzou. They’ve got the best Oline in the North, and probably the second best in the Big 12. That alone should put them in a Top 3 of a mediocre division.

   Yeah, they lost a lot but not so much that they’re now going to be significantly worse than two teams they have completely demolished the last two years. Nebraska hasn’t come within 35 of Mizzou since 2006 and Colorado hasn’t come within 45 of Mizzou since 2006.

   Iowa State and Kansas State will both be terrible and don’t even merit discussion.

   Colorado is going to suck again. Under Hawkins, CU 1-11 against Big 12 North teams not named Iowa State. If they’re better than 3-5, I’ll be shocked.

   Nebraska should be salty on D but are replacing pretty much everything on offense and have to take trips to Columbia (on a Thursday night), Lawrence, Boulder, and Waco in addition to having to get past Tech and OU in Lincoln. I think they wind up at 4-4, 5-3 at best with 3-5 a possibility.

   I think the Big 12 North will again be decided at Arrowhead, with Mizzou coming in at 5-2 and KU at 4-3, maybe 5-2 depending on the Tech game.

5. ponderos said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 9:52 am

   We’re pretty much right in line, scip, except for a flip-flop with Nebraska and Kansas. Like you, I think it comes down to scheduling. Sure, Kansas gets Nebraska at home, but unless they win at least one of those three with Tech, OU and Texas, they’re done no matter what they do against NU.

   Here’s our take.

6. ponderos said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 10:04 am

   Benito. Pinkel was 20-12 in the conference with Chase Daniel. He’s 12-20 without him.

   Just sayin.

7. Benito said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 10:29 am

   Well if we’re going to attribute a coach’s success to a single player, Mizzou’s a lock to win the North. After all, Pinkel is 12-4 in Big 12 play, 22-6 overall, when Sean Weatherspoon starts. Since a single player dictates how well Mizzou does, we can assume Mizzou will continue that winning pace with Weatherspoon back.

8. Scipio Tex said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 10:37 am

   ponderos:

   Thanks for your thoughts. Just to be clear – I didn’t list them in order of predicted finish. I probably favor Nebraska and Kansas to share the same North record at this juncture, but there is a case to be made for a sorry Colorado squad sneaking in.

   jon:

   They could be 7-3 or thereabouts, so yeah, they’ll be ranked.

   Parlin:

   I can’t argue with your Nebraska take at all though KU and CU both on the road are pesky impediments particularly if/when it gets into North tie breakers.

   I agree that the Huskers will be vastly improved on defense, but they don’t have a lot of playmakers beyond some quality backs.

   Benito:

   Yours is a sentiment expressed by a number of Mizzou fans I’ve chatted with. It misunderstands where you currently are in the Great Gridiron Cycle of Rebuilding. If you’re 5-2 in the Big 12 heading into your game with the Jayhawks, it’s because Blaine Gabbert is the next coming of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.

9. Benito said:

   July 10th, 2009 at 10:43 am

   My thinking Mizzou will be 5-2 doesn’t have anything to do with thinking Mizzou will be great but rather my thinking that Nebraska is being overrated by most, Colorado is being drastically overrated by most and that Mizzou’s schedule sets up more nicely than Nebraska’s (worse North home/road draw) or Kansas’s (worse South draw).

10. Vasherized said:

    July 10th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    Juice & Benn could get Mizzou’s season off to a rough start before conference play even begins.

11. scagnetti said:

    July 10th, 2009 at 7:01 pm

    i too care more for quinceneras…

    my question is, does it even matter?

    it’s fun, yes, to think Fatgino dreams of trip(s) to Pappadeaux in DFW, as the true motivation for his appearance in Arlington in december, but really…

12. Ecurbmanchild said:

    July 10th, 2009 at 8:29 pm

    Missouri? You are kidding right?

13. CrazyJoeDavola said:

    July 10th, 2009 at 11:23 pm

    I’m real interested to see how our D plays Colorado’s rush O. With OU the next week and OSU 3 weeks after the game in Austin, I’m intrigued to see how Muschamp aligns his personnel and formations in preparation for our two toughest tests in terms of the running game, particularly at our wafer-thin central defense.

    Obviously, the Buffs are a scrimmage in comparison to the latter squads, but if we have trouble slowing CU down, at home, with presumably few injuries, then that could spell some discomfort in the following weeks.

    Not that I expect Boom to show too much exoticism in the gameplan, but still.

14. RC Horn said:

    July 11th, 2009 at 9:40 am

    I thought that Joe Ganz was a Senior last year. Did he get an extra year?

15. Captain Obvious said:

    July 11th, 2009 at 10:44 am

    Why does everyone think CU will be improved on offense? As long as Cody Hawkins is the quarterback they will have a poor man’s Todd Reesing without the wide receivers. He is short with a weak arm paired with a bad line and little speed at wide receiver.

    Look at the last five games of the year CU played (Neb., OSU, ISU, A&M, and Mz.). The only defense worth a shit was Neb and they were average at best and CU still struggled.

    Yes Cody can get better, but how much more room does he have to improve I can’t help but be reminded of Bob Simmons at OSU when I see Cody continue to play.

    Without a legit threat at quarterback Texas will be able to focus on the run and make CU one dimensional.

16. Parlin Hall said:

    July 11th, 2009 at 3:33 pm

    Ganz has graduated; had a tryout with the Redskins but didn’t get picked up.

    Plans to go into coaching before opening a cheeseburger place on Rush Street.

17. ed said:

    July 11th, 2009 at 5:10 pm

    You cut right to the heart of it, Scip. Thanks for the analysis.

    I have a hunch Nebraska is the one.

    In a mediocre race, team depth and full adjustment to the Pelini system will be enough. They had a huge, talented freshman haul a year ago; those guys will begin collecting scalps. Road trips or no, I make Nebraska a fair bet to be 10-2 (losing to Va. Tech and OU) and in, or close to, the Top 10 when the Big 12 title is decided. If they stumble once, 9-3 gets Huskers to title game.

18. Gene Claude said:

    July 12th, 2009 at 12:13 pm

    Scip, obviously much more to come at the long silent Atomic Teeth…but I’ll say this:

    If Mizzou isn’t in the top 3 in the Big 12 North, I will not only fellate Colt McCoy, I will pen an epic ballad in iambic pentameter describing the experience, and then display such in skywriting over Darrel K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium during every Texas 2009 home game.

    In very short format, I believe you are drastically overrating Nebraska while drastically underestimating both the impact of scheduling on the North race and the overall talent differential between Mizzou and KU.

    The fact that Mizzou lost significant high end talent (although I will argue that only Maclin, Coffman and Hood are net losses…I’m still unable to make sense of my complicated Benjamin Button Daniel emotions) obscures the fact that the talent level of the Missouri roster will actually be as high or higher this year. While I concur with your prognostications regarding Blaine Gabbert’s possible struggles, I’d take his left nut over anything Colorado or Nebraska can put on the field. Hell, I’d take his grundle over Cody Hawkins. I might take my grundle over Cody Hawkins, come to think of it.

    One thing on which we can agree: The Big 12 South is the American East to the Big 12 North’s National Central. That shit’s going to get really ugly (again).

    By the way, Nebraska’s offense and defense last year were decidedly mediocre. The fact that Pelini played a four corners offense seems to have convinced the massses that the defense was somehow talented, despite being 9th in yards per play in the conference.

19. Spider said:

    July 12th, 2009 at 1:50 pm

    For Scip:

20. Colb said:

    July 12th, 2009 at 11:09 pm

    And now we wait for the Big 12 south write up… that’s gonna be a mess (again). :)

21. Parlin Hall said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 5:49 am

    “By the way, Nebraska’s offense and defense last year were decidedly mediocre.”

    NU didn’t have a lot of talent last year, and got rolled by superior teams, including MU. So it’s a little puzzling to see that, while the Huskers finished 6th in total offense in the Big 12, they were 2nd (behind UT) in total defense with a cast of players Pelini found stocking the shelves at the Lincoln Safeway.

    I like NU to finish first in total defense. If Watson runs a ball-control offense (time of possession = 34:00, 2nd in the nation last year), they could beat some teams with superior talent.

22. Scipio Tex said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 6:07 am

    My thinking is along the same lines as Parlin.

    No one knows better what Missouri has stockpiled than you Gene Claude, but I’m just not seeing it.

    That Bisping knockout never gets old.

23. coach callahan said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 6:31 am

    Strange no one has mentioned the fact that MU lost both coordinators over the winter to other jobs or the fact that CU is replacing their offensive coordinator since they played their spring game. I would think both of those things might have an impact on those teams performance this season.

24. Scipio Tex said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 6:33 am

    Hawkins is the real OC at Colorado. I don’t think there is an impact.

    Mizzou losing their DC may be positive.

25. Vasherized said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 7:10 am

    Most Mizzou fans seem to be shorting the loss of elite talent like Coffman, Hood, and Maclin. These are guys that come along to a program like Mizzou every ten years, not every three.

    Who specifically replaces them? Jared Perry? Jerrell Jackson? Do you really expect Andrew Jones to step in for Coffman without any drop off? I don’t get how these assumptions equate to automatic production.

    Even guys like Daniel, Sulak, and Moore who made NFL rosters leave a big gap because none of the guys behind them have much experience.

    The reason Tiger fans should be confident is the schedule and weak division but I’m seeing people who know the team well like GC expecting the Tigers to suffer no fall out from losing half their starters. I guess they’ll find out pretty quickly in the season opener against a potent Illini offense.

    Gabbert should turn out to be a great college QB given his size and pedigree. He has a great OL (Hoch is a first round pick) and a decent RB in Washington but who the fuck is he throwing the ball to?

    If all the talent on last year’s D couldn’t do shit against the legitimate offenses it faced in Texas and OU, I expect this year’s squad to suffer in comparison against merely decent offenses like CU and KU. I like Aldon Smith and Kenji Jackson. Who else is going to step up?

    The Huskers will win a lot of games with ugly boxscores of 24 -10, but they’ll still win more games than anybody else in the North.

26. Atomic Teeth » Blog Archive » Allow me to retort said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 8:11 am

    [...] checking my emails on the Samsung Jack when a fellow ATer hit me with a link to Scipio’s Big 12 North predictions.  Imagine that, I was minding my own business cruising down 70 in the family truckster when I [...]

27. jazz1258 said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 8:14 am

    I think most people who are “half-full” on Mizzou know that it’s not about out-running the lion (being as good as Mizzou was with Maclin/Coffman/Daniel), but being faster than the guys next to you (Big XII North). Mizzou most likely will dial back their fast break offense, which means less 35-0 halftime leads but a more rested defense and a more possesion-oriented attack. They are younger on defense, but let’s face it — they couldn’t be worse. Mizzou may not win due to QB experience but they’ve got an edge against many north foes all over the field which will put them in contention at the very least.

28. Phenomenal Smith said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 8:21 am

    I did this all last year mostly because I am jealous that UT got Muschamp, but if you look at Will’s defensive stats that matter, NU’s defensive wasn’t very good. In the conference, NU’s defense ranked 8th in points allowed per game, 9th in yards/play, 10th in yards/pass attempt, and last in t/o margin.

    I was not impressed. And neither was Will.

29. Gene Claude said:

    July 13th, 2009 at 9:32 am

    Scip, the reason I didn’t mention the coordinator losses are that both could be a positive, or a negative, and it is pure conjecture. Word on the street was that Christiansen was not well liked by the team and some members of the coaching staff. And we all saw Eberfluseseses struggles last year in figuring how to coordinate his shiny baubles in a useful fashion.

    I understand the reticence to put Mizzou ahead of KU and Nebraska, but Colorado? Really?

    Mizzou’s defense this year will be more talented overall than last year. For all the plaudits William Moore received, he was pretty awful (in pass coverage) last year. Hood was a blue collar worker in the trenches who benefited HUGELY by the vast draft defections on the d-line last year. By the end of the year, Kenji Jackson was the 3rd best player on the defense, and Brian Coulter was arguably the best defensive end. Sean Weatherspoon was far and away the best player on that side of the ball. The defensive secondary has much better athletes overall, whether it gels or not is an open question, but I’m more optimistic about this secondary than I have been about any in 10 years.

    Parlin, you are seriously citing to total defense? Total offense and defense are two of the most meaningless stats around. A very large part of Nebraska’s success last year was an incredible opponent’s third down conversion percentage. First in the league (conversely, Mizzou’s were awful). Of course, against ranked opponents, NU was 9th in the league. Those numbers tend to jump around a bunch (NU was dead last the year before, but 3rd in 2007), I would be very, very surprised if Nebraska repeates its 33% conversion rate. That screams fluke.

    I do expect the Tigers to have some fall out, I think an 8.2 – 3.8 season would be the weighted mean if you could play it a million times. I’m concerned about the receivers, but there are enough athletes to make the spread work.

    There seems to be a perception from those outside the program that Missouri’s ascent over the past 2 years was based solely on Maclin, Coffman, Daniel, William Moore, Sulak and Ziggy Hood and now that they are gone, the program is back to where it was 3 years ago. First, even if that is true, from 2004 – 2006, Mizzou was one win away from playing in the Big 12 championship game. Even with full regression, based on the schedule and the flawed division, Mizzou should be in the hunt until the very end. Second, very simply put, the overall talent level of this team is way beyond that of the 2004 – 2006 squads. But no amount of talking about it is going to prove things one way or another, so as Vasherized points out, we’ll find out come Labor Day weekend.

    Enjoy the debate, and once we get things moving over at AT, we’ll let everyone know so you can move your mocking over there. Look forward to seeing some of you UT guys in CoMo this year, come to Harpo’s top deck and we’ll buy you a round.

30. coach callahan said:

    July 14th, 2009 at 7:11 am

    Yeah NU’s defensive stats were only good enough to win 9 games and a peice of the north title. NU had some terrible games (MU and OU) and played everyone else decent. They took tech to OT in Tech’s house with not a single scholarship linebacker on the field. How did texas do agai…oh yeah, oops.

    CU lost 80% of it’s total tackles to graduation from last year. Where are they going to replace that? Cody Hawkins freezes like a deer in the headlights when he gets a decent pass rush coming at him. He better pray that Mrs. Scott’s boy is better than his 1 carry for minus 3 yards that he had in last years final game or he is going to be road kill this year. Most of CU’s offensive line is still rehabbing from one surgery or another. CU doesn’t have any D1-AA teams on it’s schedule this year. So that’s a plus since those teams tend to make life miserable for CU. I’m not convinced that hawkins the elder is a good enough game day coach to consistently beats teams with equal or better talent.

    I’d have to vote with the people that say MU is not at a point where it just reloads the talent it lost to graduation and early NFL paychecks. Merriweather is a very good linebacker but the whole defense is going to have to adjust to running a 4-3 instead of that 4-2-5 it had played. I don’t think the north is going to be all that good again this year but I do think it will be NU or KU that wins what should be a weekly dogfight.

31. Brad said:

    July 15th, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    Folks, Colorado is going to be vastly improved this year. Nobody expects the rest of the conference to notice, but the reason why Colorado scored only 31 on Nebraska instead of 62 is because they were friggin devasted by injuries. Why do you think that Cody sucked last year? He had no protection; the entire O-Line was injured by the fourth game. Why the worst offense in the conference? Again, injuries. As long as the Buffs stay healthy, they’re going to be shoving the ball down people’s throats. Only the road games at Texas and at Okie State are write-offs at this point, every other game is winnable.

    “Colorado lost 80% of its tackles from last year” – since when is that relevant? Colorado has linebacker quality and depth to rival anyone in the conference, and had the best passing D in the conference last year. Pass rush is the only question, but they have two young studs on the D Line who could have an impact right away.

    But that’s okay. Let them sneak up on you. Colorado to win the North in 2009 – quietly.

32. Captain Obvious said:

    July 15th, 2009 at 12:46 pm

    First, CU’s stats are skewed because they play in the shitty half of the conference. Games against KSU and ISU shouldn’t even count for statistical purposes as bad as they were last year and then you get the Ags to boot.

    Second, I will take OU and UT’s linebackers hands down over CU’s.

    Cody looked like crap from game four on because that is when you got to the decent teams of the schedule. He is a midget with a weak arm and the offense faired better with the other quarterback.

33. Facebook User said:

    July 15th, 2009 at 2:58 pm

    Brad – Thanks for stopping by. Scipio is a big fan of Brian Cabral.

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