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2009: A BCS Championship Game Oddity

Posted by TaylorTRoom on May 27th, 2009 under Football

Wow, did I misread this game – Thoughts on OU Florida.

I really thought it would be a shootout.

It wasn’t.  OU went into the game averaging 54 ppg, and was talked about as the greatest offense in college football history.  Hyperbole?  No, that was the idea before the game…

Greatest Evah?

And then OU laid an egg…a big egg.  The team that had been averaging 54 points per game (ppg) scored 14.  The offense that averaged 550 yards per game managed less than 360.  So, OU dropped off 70% from their scoring average.  That happens in BCS games, right, because of the tougher competition?

Well, it happens when OU is in the BCS CG.  Not so much with other schools.  The only comparable performances are FSU in the 2001 BCS CG (2 points against OU, obviously none by the offense), OU in the same game (10 points, 3 scored by the offense), and OU in the 2004 CG (14 against LSU).

Is a 70% dropoff by perhaps the greatest offense ever extreme?  Remember, if they only drop off 50%, they win the game.  How have other great offenses done in BCS or Bowl Alliance Championship Games?  Let’s see…

‘83 NU, averaged 52 ppg going into Orange Bowl, scored 30 in a loss.
‘05 UT, 50.9 ppg going into 2006 Rose Bowl, scored 41 in a win
‘95 NU, 52.4 ppg going in, scored 62 points in a win
‘05 USC, averaged 50.0 ppg going into the 2006 Rose Bowl, scored 38 points in a loss

These four teams averaged 51.3 going into their bowls, and averaged 42.8 in their final games, a 16% drop off.


You have got to be kidding me.

What explains the OU collapse? I’m going to list a bunch of possibilities, but would like to hear which ones you think are most apt-

1. OU sucks (got that out of the way).
2. It’s a gadget offense, and sound defenses shut it down.
3. No Big 12 refs in the BCS CG, so holding was called, crippling the OU offense.
4. Florida has an amazing defense and played the game of the year.
5. The SEC is that much better.
6. OU choked, really, really badly. and…

7.  DeMarco Murray didn’t play. This one is Stoops fave.

Let’s examine them, item by item.

1.  Yes, OU does suck, but they have always sucked but yet managed to show up for bowl games before.  Discount this one as a reason.

2.  It’s a gadget offense?  There may be something to this one.  The OU offense relied on going no huddle, and keeping opposing defenses from adjusting with personnel and alignments.  Teams with less depth were run out of gas in the 2nd quarter.  The two most talented defenses OU played were able to shut down the Sooner offense for long stretches (UT held OU to 7 points in the last 25 minutes of the RRS despite having no more than one upperclassman in the secondary at a time). Gadget offenses do underperform against better teams.

3.  No Big 12 refs.  OU was called for holding once in the 1st quarter, negating a long completion.  Perhaps this hindered their usual blocking schemes.  Certainly, Florida managed to get even more pressure on Bradford than even Texas.  I am a believer that the Big 12 calls holding differently than other conferences in an attempt to drive up scoring and TV ratings.  There is a lot of evidence to support this, usually from bowl games.  If true, this will handicap Big 12 teams in BCS bowl games.

4.  Is Florida’s defense so good that they could stop the best offense ever cold?  Florida was allowing 13 ppg going into the BCS CG.  That’s very good, but not amazing.  They had given up 31 to Ole miss, and 19 to the Citadel.  Their 2001 and 2006 defenses were similar.  If OU’s offense was as good as advertised, this very good Gator defense should still have allowed 30 or more.

5.  Was the SEC that good?  If so, explain Utah scoring 31 and Tech scoring 34.  The SEC had some very good defensive performances in bowls (LSU holding GT to 3, and Georgia holding MSU to 12), but the lesson from these scores is that sound SEC defenses can shut down unsound offenses (Hmmm…).

6.  Did OU choke?  Heh, heh.  I think we know the answer here.  here is the breakdown for scoring performances in Big 12 games (home and away), games against opponents from BCS conferences on the road (i.e., not Big 12 crews), and bowl games for Brown, Stoops, and Leach.

B12 home games scoring average: UT (under Mack Brown) – 39.98 ppg, OU (Stoops) – 41.06, TT (Leach) – 37.22
B12 road games: UT – 34.12, OU – 32.98, TT – 31.81
BCS conference opponents (non-B12) road games: UT- 30.80 (5 games), OU – 32.4(5 games), TT – 30.33 (3 games)
Bowl games: UT – 32.45, OU – 21.6, TT – 33.33

Hmmm.  OU consistently underperforms in bowl games.  Is that because they play in more BCS games, against better defenses?  Partly, but not totally.  I did a quick check of scoring defenses, without taking out the bowl game results. The average OU bowl game opponent from 1999 – 2008 gave up 17.1 ppg. The average UT opponent over the same period gave up 21.4 ppg. This makes a 3.7 point difference in scoring defense, which would be reduced if you took out the results of the games (UT scoring over 50 on ASU ran them from 19 ppg to 22.5 ppg, and OU scoring only 10 on Arkansas in 2001 reduced their ppg from over 24 ppg to 23 ppg). Michigan in ‘04 was not an effective defense (23.3 ppg), but tOSU last year was (14 ppg).

I look at a sub-20 point performance as a big letdown offensively. UT has had one bowl game like that- in ‘99 against Arkansas. Tech has had two- against Iowa in ‘01 and Bama in ‘05. OU has had SIX in 10 Stoops seasons. Their scoring outbreaks came against Ole Miss in ‘99 (25 points), WSU in ‘02 (34 points), BSU in ‘06 (42 points), and WVU in ‘07 (28 points). In other words, they struggle to score in bowls unless they play weak teams, and sometimes they struggle against weak defenses (Arkansas in 2001).

7.  Murray’s absence?  Really, chief?  This is the one you want to roll with, after campaigning to be in the game, to explain the loss of 3 – 5 TDs?  I could maybe buy 3 – 5 points, but you did replace one 1,000 yard back with another 1,000 yard back.

Really?

So, what explains the offensive meltdown?  Three primary reasons, in my opinion, are that the no huddle aspect makes the offense seem much better than it is, that OU is used to blocking to relaxed Big 12 standards that don’t apply in bowls, and that Stoops just doesn’t do that great at preparing for bowl games.

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30 Responses

  1. Longhorn in Canada said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 8:04 pm

    If I was a GM in the NFL, I would be very leery of spending a high draft pick on a Big 12 offensive lineman, particularly one from OU. The land thieves have absolutely no experience in legal blocking, and have demonstrated an inability to learn it for bowl games.

  2. SEC rules said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 8:05 pm

    It really is perplexing how OU consistently under performs in Bowl games…but then again are they really under performing?

    They haven’t done much since that 2002 championship run….and I think the drubbing USC gave them a few years ago really punctured the Big Game Bob personna.

    They likely get another shot at the BCS, but not the title game. Texas should win the conference this year and get into the MNC, that will put OU in another high profile game with someone like USC or Ohio State, etc.

    Can they win that type of game…I’m don’t think their odds are good.

  3. Whiskey said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 10:16 pm

    I’m a big fan of college football in general and Bowl Games. As such I actually saw the Sooners live at the 2008 Fiesta Bowl and the 2005 Holiday Bowl. My observation both times was that they were flat. There was no fire in the team period. They were very “business like.” Almost NFL esque in their approach. That doesn’t fly in college. That’s been Charlie Weis’ biggest learning curve and Big Game Bob still hasn’t learned it. Until he does they will continue to struggle in the clutch.

  4. Bob in Houston said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 4:52 am

    Whiskey, if you think you’re headed for the BCSCG or the BCS, and you don’t get there, you may well be flat. One of the key ways to decide on a bowl winner is to figure out which team wants to be there. I definitely think that was a factor in the Texas loss to Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl.

  5. hiphopopotamus said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 5:52 am

    But Murray wasn’t prezent.

  6. Huckleberry said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 6:01 am

    Stoops is hilarious. “No excuses, BUT…” is his new tagline.

  7. uthookem said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 6:11 am

    Other than the six Big XII championships (which irks me, but the real deal is BCS championships, so I can dig it), small game Bob only won something with someone else’s recruits.

    The role reversal between Mack and Bob the last few years has been fun to watch, and I expect Muschamp to continue the trend once he takes over in a few years (if Bob is still around).

    Hook ‘em!

  8. Steve Nebraska said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 6:22 am

    Reason #1 is good enough for me.

  9. Diggler* said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 7:07 am

    When you talk your way into a porno you’d better not show up with a three inch boner..

  10. three inch boner said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 7:19 am

    Size, like BCS bowl games, doesn’t matter.

  11. BatesHorn said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 8:55 am

    I saw what you did there.

  12. Bartoncreek said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 8:56 am

    You bring up some interesting numbers. I have been trying to figure out for myself why OU sucks so bad in bowl games.

    I thought it had something to do with the fact that the seniors couldn’t wait to get the fuck out of there and were just trying not to get hurt. Then dumbasses like Gresham, Granger and Bradford come back and kind of ruin that theory. I mean, what kind of an idiot would go back to OU instead of collecting millions. I don’t care how much OU pays, it is not NFL money. So maybe it’s not that bad of place to play.

    So what then? Sure the gimmicky offense comes up short. The fact that they hold incessantly during the season plays a factor as has been much discussed. But their vaunted defense led by mastermind Stoops has also flat out sucked. Every good offense they have played has gutted them. USC, Boise, West Virginia did whatever felt good offensively. It is a team suckage that can’t be blamed on just the O.

    That leads me to one final thought. Sometimes it is just the Ole Small Coach. Sometimes he just can’t draw up any ball plays. Sometimes his team takes on his personality. In this case, an uptight, whiny, arrogant bitch. And that is how his team plays in bowl games. Like an overconfident little bunch of pussies. They get kicked in the teeth and they just lay down.

    That is my theory, and it makes me feel good. So I’m keeping it.

  13. Kafka said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 9:28 am

    The holding on blocking is a big problem.

    Losing DeMarco Murray hurt some but did he ever regain his pre injury speed and explosiveness?

    Another problem is that OU faces such crap defenses in the Big 12 that they are just not used to dealing with an outstanding defense (that you are likely to face in a championship game).

    Stoops is an outstanding coach but not really that smart. He is solid tactically but not brilliant. He is excellent at recruiting and developing his players but is likely to be out coached at game time if he is facing one of the really elite coaches (i.e. the kind you might face in the championship game (eg: Urban Meyer)). I am not claiming that Mack is smarter than Stoops but I do think that Urban Meyer is smarter than Stoops.

  14. TaylorTRoom said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 9:37 am

    Kafka- Coaches you might meet in a championship game: Stoops, Meyer, Miles, Tressell, Carroll, Saban.

    Mack’s record against the above-mentioned: 12-7

  15. uthookem said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 9:48 am

    IIRC, if you take out Stoopid the only loss is to Tressel.

  16. MedUSA 6 said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 9:49 am

    Reasons 2, 3 and 4.

  17. Name tag: HELLO...my name is... said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 9:57 am

    Reason 6 makes perfect sense.

  18. Die-hard OU Fan said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 9:59 am

    I read this blog and it makes me wanna scream!

  19. kevwun said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 10:00 am

    While we’re talking about asshole coaches, can we get a Calipari/Memphis violations thread?

  20. Mike said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 10:08 am

    Calipari/Memphis-now your talkin’!Their assholes must be the size of grapefruits!

  21. Tom Nebraska said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 10:10 am

    They eat too much fiber.

  22. Urban Liar said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 10:26 am

    Wow. This post reeks of someone who probably never saw UF play all season, and only saw OU play against Texas.

    You seem to have an opinion on how things should be and build your hypothesis from there, rather than going by the evidence presented.

  23. TXinDC said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 10:34 am

    UrbanLiar – please write your own column then and provide us with some off-season commentary, because assuredly it’s great.

  24. Houstonearlers said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 11:48 am

    My hunch is that — at least part of the issue — is that spread teams tend to struggle on offense after the long layoff between the regular season and the bowl game.

  25. the Bobs said:

    May 28th, 2009 at 5:35 pm

    houstonearlers, that probably has some validity, but it sure doesn’t explain OU’s outlier status in suckage compared to other spread offenses…

    It’s probably a combination of most of the reasons given. I think that the difference in officiating, especially as regards holding, affects OU more because they teach to the Big12 standard. I know Texas holds, but I don’t see anywhere near the egregiousness that I do when I watch OU. That might, I admit, be partly the result of watching through orange-colored glasses, but I’m holding that there’s something more than just that…

  26. BoomerFreakinSooner said:

    May 29th, 2009 at 2:17 pm

    As usual, TTR is proven to be less than candid when spouting his ‘facts’. Mack Brown has never coached against Urban Meyer when Meyer was a head coach. But you would think he did based on the way Taylor-T-Liar wrote his comment. By the way, sMack still has a losing record to Stoops and your god VY was 1-2 against the Sooners.

  27. Facebook User said:

    May 29th, 2009 at 3:16 pm

    Stop being a douche or we will start deleting your comments.

  28. The Douche said:

    May 30th, 2009 at 9:24 am

    Squirt Sailor!

  29. the Bobs said:

    May 30th, 2009 at 9:33 am

    so freakin’sooner, you can’t dispute the actual facts that he posted… you just complain because those facts confused you?

    And as for Mack and stoops, I’ll stipulate that stoops USED to have an advantage on him. The OU teams consistently looked more aggressive and better-coached until… oh, about ‘05. Since then, the only way you can say the reverse has not been true is when… well, you lie. So, welcome with that, naturally, but the truth has to be burning in you like it does when you pee…

  30. El Douche said:

    May 31st, 2009 at 9:03 am

    I’m a pederast.

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