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The Road to Omaha

Posted by Huckleberry on May 26th, 2009 under Baseball

Essentially repeating the analysis I did for the basketball tourney, I have run the baseball tournament through the superregionals. There it gets a little trickier for my rudimentary analysis with a double elimination setup, so I will likely revisit the analysis after the supers and analyze the CWS itself.

Reg Seed Team Super Omaha
A
u
s
t
i
n		 1 Texas 73.08% 39.11%
4 Army 0.30% 0.00%
3 Boston College 6.48% 0.88%
2 Texas St. 20.13% 6.02%
F
t

W
o
r
t
h

 1 TCU 39.39% 19.82%
4 Wright St. 0.10% 0.00%
3 Oregon St. 37.83% 22.60%
2 Texas A&M 22.69% 11.56%
A
t
l
a
n
t
a		 1 Georgia Tech 65.48% 39.40%
4 Georgia St. 0.63% 0.04%
3 Southern Miss 15.80% 5.76%
2 Elon 18.10% 7.19%
G
a
i
n
e
s		 1 Florida 72.06% 39.68%
4 Bethune-Cookman 0.77% 0.03%
3 Jacksonville 3.84% 0.47%
2 Miami (FL) 23.33% 7.43%
T
e
m
p
e		 1 Arizona St. 88.04% 77.97%
4 Kent St. 0.37% 0.04%
3 Cal Poly 5.08% 2.00%
2 Oral Roberts 6.51% 2.74%
C
l
e
m
s
o
n		 1 Clemson 45.33% 7.28%
4 Tennessee Tech 0.08% 0.00%
3 Oklahoma St. 26.16% 4.55%
2 Alabama 28.43% 5.43%
G
r
e
e
n		 1 East Carolina 72.94% 48.69%
4 Binghamton 0.03% 0.00%
3 George Mason 1.48% 0.16%
2 South Carolina 25.55% 12.28%
C
h
a
p
e
l		 1 North Carolina 57.23% 26.14%
4 Dartmouth 0.30% 0.01%
3 Kansas 20.78% 5.85%
2 Coastal Carolina 21.68% 6.87%
F
u
l
l
e
r		 1 Cal St.-Fullerton 86.33% 78.18%
4 Utah 1.35% 0.35%
3 Gonzaga 6.85% 3.30%
2 Georgia Southern 5.46% 2.51%
L
o
u
i
s		 1 Louisville 31.08% 3.85%
4 Indiana 3.23% 0.11%
3 Vanderbilt 32.63% 5.41%
2 Middle Tennessee St. 33.06% 6.29%
T
a
l
l
a		 1 Florida St. 56.83% 17.76%
4 Marist 0.02% 0.00%
3 Ohio St. 3.50% 0.24%
2 Georgia 39.64% 11.64%
N
o
r
m
a
n		 1 Oklahoma 65.32% 52.00%
4 Wichita St. 0.91% 0.13%
3 Washington St. 20.29% 11.42%
2 Arkansas 13.48% 6.81%
I
r
v
i
n
e		 1 UC-Irvine 53.92% 37.39%
4 Fresno St. 1.19% 0.16%
3 San Diego St. 7.63% 2.66%
2 Virginia 37.27% 23.13%
O
x
f
o
r
d		 1 Mississippi 61.89% 26.59%
4 Monmouth 0.21% 0.00%
3 Western Kentucky 15.85% 3.48%
2 Missouri 22.05% 6.59%
H
o
u
s
t
o
n		 1 Rice 53.26% 25.04%
4 Sam Houston St. 5.04% 0.80%
3 Xavier 0.36% 0.01%
2 Kansas St. 41.34% 18.24%
B
a
t
o
n		 1 LSU 71.89% 46.59%
4 Southern 0.19% 0.00%
3 Baylor 20.60% 7.61%
2 Minnesota 7.31% 1.70%

Arizona St. and Fullerton have gift-wrapped roads to the CWS thanks to weak regional pairings for the supers. Louisville is the 3rd-most likely team to advance out of their own regional.

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13 Responses

  1. maninblack said:

    May 26th, 2009 at 6:52 pm

    Good job Huck. Was small ball factored into your analysis? :)

  2. Scipio Tex said:

    May 26th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

    Huck:

    How would you shake up our line-up heading into the regionals and possibly Omaha? Both hitting and pitching?

    Specifically, Taylor Jungmann’s place in the rotation order, batting order, DH.

  3. uthookem said:

    May 26th, 2009 at 7:26 pm

    ASU and CSF look like sure bets, I’d agree.

    Hook ‘em!

  4. CloseToJumping said:

    May 26th, 2009 at 7:55 pm

    My guess is that you’ve repeated the CWS calc for Marist that was done with the school above them. I hope it didn’t throw anything else off.

    The Okies have that much of a clear shot to make it into the CWS huh? I hope Bob Stoops is coaching them, then.

  5. Huckleberry said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 3:46 am

    Thanks for the catch. It was a simple transcription error, nothing else was affected, although it’s possible there’s another error in there.

    Just for everyone’s information, homefield advantage was used for the regionals. It was also plugged in for the supers if a Top 8 seed advanced and in any other situation where a team was playing a lower seed in the super. For the situations where a 2, 3, or 4 seed was playing their counterpart from the other regional, no homefield advantage was used.

    Scipio -

    At this point in the season, I’m not a big fan of changing up roles, to be honest. Jungmann would probably start warming up for me the first time Workman so much as coughed during a game, though.

    Then again, I think there are a lot of equally viable strategies to the rotation during a regional. It’s possible that I would start Jungmann against Army in order to have Ruffin ready for the Texas St./Boston College winner on Saturday evening.

    As for the offensive side of the ball, I think my recommendations are probably pretty well understood at this point. I would yank Brandon Belt’s scholarship if he ever even showed bunt.

  6. R Fourie said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 4:46 am

    How does it work that Oregon State has a lower probability than TCU to advance out of their regional, but a higher probability to advance to Omaha?

  7. Huckleberry said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 5:14 am

    There are a couple of reasons that could be in any given situation. The first reason might be the difference in the teams’ standard deviations for their game-by-game performances. In this case, Oregon State indeed is a more consistent team than TCU. This would mean that the more games are played, the higher the likelihood that TCU suffers an upset than Oregon State. However, TCU is not truly inconsistent, so that is probably not the case here. Also, there aren’t really enough games for that to be the cause.

    The second reason, and the one I feel is probably driving the result, is that TCU opens against Wright St. while Oregon St. opens against A&M.

    Running two test cases, one giving them equal standard deviations and one swapping their bracket positions, my above suspicion was confirmed. If you equalize their standard deviations, the qualitative result doesn’t change (TCU more likely to win the regional, OSU more likely to go to Omaha). However, if you switch their positions in the bracket, the numbers change significantly. The Beavers become over 50% to win the regional and the Horned Frogs fall to around 27%. The Beavers also move up to over 30% to make the CWS while the Horned Frogs fall to just over 14%.

    In this case, it’s all about the seeding.

  8. Nordberg said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 5:21 am

    “It’s possible that I would start Jungmann against Army in order to have Ruffin ready for the Texas St./Boston College winner on Saturday evening.”

    Isn’t it a given that Ruffin will go in game #2?

    And I’d throw Green/Workman against Army.

  9. Huckleberry said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 5:24 am

    Yeah, probably a given. I emphasized the wrong part of the plan, the key being Jungmann in Game 1. That leaves Green/Workman to attempt to finish it off in our third game if things go well. The only “danger” there is that if things go perfectly, which they rarely do, then one of Green/Workman wouldn’t pitch this weekend.

  10. Joe Morgan said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 6:08 am

    “In this case, Oregon State indeed is a more consistent team than TCU. This would mean that the more games are played, the higher the likelihood that TCU suffers an upset than Oregon State. However, TCU is not truly inconsistent, so that is probably not the case here.”

    I like your style.

  11. Huckleberry said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 6:11 am

    Thanks, Joe. I wanted to throw in a “cosisstantt” for you, but I guess I choked.

  12. bat said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 6:46 am

    I’d guess we’re locked in pretty hard for the pitching order: Green (Workman in relief) against Army; Ruffin faces the winners bracket, and Jungmann finishes off the tournament. If we need another, you have Workman and then the staff. That’s pretty much what we did in the Big 12 tournament too.

  13. AugieBall said:

    May 27th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

    Huck,

    Workman has been out of the top 3 rotation for some time.

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