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Thoughts on the Rockets this Weekend

Posted by Trips Right on May 11th, 2009 under Basketball

Previous Rockets coverage is here.

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Friday night’s Game 3 was a nightmare scenario on both ends of the floor for Clutch City. Kobe Bryant showed up as the Kobe Bryant being compared to Jordan. Eventually we’ll talk about why the comparison is an exercise in foolish douchebaggery, but you have to acknowledge Kobe’s greatness on nights he plays decent. ESPN, TNT, and Laker bandwaggoners will bludgeon you with black mamba idiocy until you do.

God bless Shane Battier because he didn’t allow many easy looks for the Laker star, contesting all manner of perimeter jumpers and fadeaways, while doing an admirable job of keeping Bryant out of the paint. But Kobe was on from behind the arc going 4-6 and when he’s hitting from deep, he’s a tough cover.

I’d be remiss for not mentioning that 3 Laker players took nearly as many foul shots as Yao Ming but I’ll stay out of that fray especially considering the tell tale stat that actually cost the Rockets the ballgame. Turnovers.

On the other end of the floor, the Rockets had no one to blame but themselves. While they tried to run offense through Yao and take advantage of Laker help, Houston ballhandlers played sloppy basketball leading to 17 turnovers on the night giving the Lakers 11 extra possessions net net. The starting 5 had 14 of those miscues, and when the smoke cleared, the team that took care of the basketball won and you could identify the losing team by their limping. Which take us to…

Game 4. Basketball is a game of matchups, and there was no better example of that than Sunday’s must win for the Rockets. To prove my matchup point let’s try a little experiment. Imagine Tracy McGrady, Deke Mutombo, and Yao Ming are all healthy and suiting up for the Rockets, playing at an expectation level similar to that of the current Lakers. Just forget for a moment that Houston is dogshit with McGrady in the lineup, we’re talking hypotheticals. Now, match that Rocket team up with a Laker team missing Bryant, Gasol, and Bynum in a playoff environment and tell me if the Lakers can even win a game. Doubtful.

Why then were the Rockets able to pull a similar style upset yesterday? Matchups. You see, LA is absolute garbage defending penetration in general, and even more putrid defending the pick and roll. Laker guards allow easy penetration to ultra quick guards because the Laker backcourt consists of average quickness points like Fisher and Farmar, and a big shooting guard in Kobe Bryant who expends a ton of energy on the offensive end. Chris Paul destroys these cats. Now this advantage is somewhat mitigated against post-up centric teams like the Rockets, because guys like Bynum and Gasol can hang out in the lane and cut off penetration, spending most of the possession in the paint against a plodders like Yao Ming.

Take Yao out of the equation, and now you make Gasol and Bynum move their feet against pick and rolls and floating big men. The result is the Rockets run the Lakers right out of the gym. Brooks and Lowery are allowed to get wherever they want with basketball against slow guards and big men that are garbage showing on ball screens.

And when I say garbage, I’m saying there may not be a worse tandem than Bynum and Gasol when it comes to playing ball screens. I suspect you’ll see more trapping from Phil Jackson in Game 5, because it gives his bigs a one way go, takes the ball out of Brooks’ hands, and forces players, that are less athletic than Laker defenders, to finish.

If I’m the Rockets, I throw caution to the wind and try to exploit the Laker perimeter by going to the small lineup of Lowry, Brooks, Battier, Artest, and Scola for longer stretches of the game. This lineup forces Bryant to get involved defending the screen/roll, pulls weakside help away from the bucket because of the shooting ability of Artest and Battier, and gives you a pick and pop screening big man in Scola. The downside is finding a Laker that Lowry can guard. If Odom’s dinged, it allows the Rockets to stick Lowry on Vucacic or Arize and beg the Lakers to run back to the basket offense through those two making them become playmakers while taking the ball out of Kobe’s hands.

Jackson might counter by going big with Bynum and Gasol which would make for some fun matchups. Bynum guarding Artest, Vucocic/Arize on Lowry, Artest on Bynum or Gasol etc.

But hell, the Rockets are playing with house money, so the pressure’s on the Lakers to adjust. Or the stripe shirts to adjust. Or Joey Crawford.

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15 Responses

  1. Cincohorn said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 7:53 am

    Nice analysis. The Rockets are going to continue having difficulty with the Lakers length, but you are correct that turnovers have consistantly been the Rockets bug-a-boo in this series. I think the story yesterday was largely on the defensive end where we really get a whole lot better with Chuck Hayes on the floor. You think about it and it’s a linup with two NBA All-Defensive second teamers and a guy I would argue is actually our best defensive player in Hayes. If the old addage about winning championships is true, you never know what can happen. Houston’s own version of the Bad Boys (except it’s nearly impossible to call Battier a bad guy).

    If the Lakers bigs don’t step up their game and with Odum at half strength due to his back . . . look out. They really get more one dimensional and that is frustrating for them. Game 5 should be a barn burner.

  2. jc25 said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 8:59 am

    Nice write-up. But I’m disappointed that you fully discounted Chuck Hayes, which is exactly what the AP write-up and the SportsCenter stories did. For shame.

    Yeah, Chuck Hayes is an offensive black hole, but he’s simply incredible on the defensive end. Watch quarters 1-3 when Gasol catches the ball in the post. Chuck Hayes won every single battle, save one, against Gasol. Contrast that to when Scola or Brian Cook (!) was guarding Gasol, and Pau completely dominated in the post. Another part of Hayes’ game that doesn’t show up in the box score at all is tipped passes. It led directly to 3 steals credited to Hayes, but also many indirect stops or opportunities.

    It’s not like Phil Jackson has any way to counteract this either. Gasol’s gotta stay in the game, but he’s unlikely to win more than half the time against Hayes, so that’s a win for Houston. On the offensive end, Gasol can sag off Hayes with impunity, but he’s not nowhere to play his help D, save for the occasional Lowry attemped lay-up or the ill-advised Ron Artest dribble-dribble-dribble-throw up a terrible shot in the paint that somehow goes in play. About your only option is to get Hayes in foul trouble, in which case Adelman is forced to go with a Scola/Landry duo, which is far superior offensively but gives up so much on the defensive end. Or, heaven forbid, Brian Cook. Isn’t this why we drafted Joey Dorsey? What happened to him?

  3. jc25 said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 9:01 am

    If that write-up makes me sound too wildly opportunistic about Houston’s chances, I’m not. If Ron Artest still plays like dogcrap on the offensive end, you’re pretty much living and dying with Scola’s 18-footers and a 3 point barrage from Battier and Brooks. I imagine you’ll see a regression to the mean with our long-range jumpers, since we’re simply not that great at shooting them. Without any offensive presence, we’re pretty much screwed, all our-world defense be damned.

  4. Cincohorn said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 10:07 am

    jc, the Lakers’ defense is extremely aggressive playing the passing lanes. you can regularly get short inside shots against the lakers. we were 34.5% from behind the 3-pt line last night which is below our average for the season. Also, we are apparently 4-0 against the Lakers without Yao over the past couple of seasons.

    I would actually welcome the Lakers going to a trapping style defense. If I were Phil, I’d shut down on all the space inside and dare the Rockets to beat me from the outside.

  5. Burnt Orange Wookie said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 10:21 am

    Trips,

    Nice writeup. I (unlike most here apparently) am a big NBA fan. Grew up watching it, and still find it great fun, so I appreciate the attention paid to it right now. I agree with many of your points about why the NBA can suck, but I love the level of talent/play and great coaching (depending on the team). I won’t argue with those that love college ball, but I just can’t let go of my old love for the NBA and never will. I hope.

    Just curious? Have you watched the Cavs much? I use to scoff at Lebron and his “billion dollar global icon aspirations” but after that 48 point playoff game against the Pistons in 2007, I’ve been a fan. The way the Cavs play together as a team and interact makes them a really fun and good ball club. Those that Argue Kobe makes his team better like Lebron James are tool bags. Take Lebron away from the Cavs and how many games do they win? That answer is debatable only to a degree.

    All the “Kobe is a great guy and the best player!” talk is sickening to me. He doesn’t touch Jordan. Imagine Jordan without the now instituted hand check rules. He was sick then, and he’d be unimaginably sick now.

  6. Facebook User said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 10:35 am

    Good stuff, Wookie.

    Trips promised me on Friday he’d write a great post about Jordan and why he (Trips) loved the NBA back when Jordan was playing.

  7. srr50 said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 10:40 am

    i can’t imagine a Micheal Jordan team in its prime getting clubbed like a baby seal as the Lakers did yesterday.

  8. Burnt Orange Wookie said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 10:59 am

    Thanks, Sailor.

    srr50, YES! No way Jordan allows that to happen.

  9. RRR said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 11:30 am

    We had that same conversation yesterday, srr50. No Jordan team comes out that flat against a team that just lost its premiere player. Jordan teams didn’t care about your problems, they just killed you. They never even played a game 7 in the finals.

  10. jc25 said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 1:14 pm

    @Cinco: I’d say that number is misleading, as it accounts for all this missed 3’s we shot in the second half, and particularly the 4th quarter. I’m not sure where to find a breakdown by quarter, but I’m sure the numbers would support me on this. More importantly, the 34% takes into account Artest’s horrid 0-6 showing and the bench’s 1-4 (the lone make being Brian Cook’s). When you account for who should be the primary 3-point shooters, Brooks and Battier, they were a combined 9-19, and that percentage was better until their shots started falling off in the second half.

    What’s worrisome is that if the Rockets don’t have that “on fire” shot falling in, they simply don’t have the firepower to stop the Lakers, no matter how good their defense. You have to imagine they’ll be some regression; Battier is a career 38% 3-pt shooter, and Brooks is at 36%. You hope to counteract that with Ron making at least a couple of his 3’s, and maybe Wafer chipping in as well. The rest of your offense is reliant on Lowry and Brooks’ dribble penetration, with the dish for a 3 or for a Landry/Scola 18-footer. Sure, we’ll get an inside bucket every now and again, but you’re pretty much counting on your offensive production via perimeter jump shots.

    Which brings me pretty much back to your point, in that the Lakers will pretty much keep trucking on, with the notion that the Rockets simply won’t make enough shots to pull another upset.

  11. intellectual type said:

    May 11th, 2009 at 1:37 pm

    Sounds like the ‘07 Horns…

  12. RRR said:

    May 12th, 2009 at 11:56 am

    jc25, I agree with your second paragraph, that the Rockets can’t win without good perimeter shooting, but I think turnovers will be crucial tonight. Houston only had 10 on Sunday, their fewest of the series, when they had been averaging about 17.

    The Lakers transition offense, off turnovers and long rebounds, is how they win these games. And if Sunday’s 4th qtr is any indication, look for a lot more half-court trap from LA to create broken plays and get steals.

  13. Vasherized said:

    May 12th, 2009 at 8:26 pm

    The Rockets are getting HenryJamesed right now in game 5.

    Down by 85 pts or something in the third quarter.

  14. Trips Right said:

    May 13th, 2009 at 4:50 am

    I’ve been in Boston since yesterday, and last night, watching the Rockets get skullf*cked while drinking beer at the Old Tavern downtown just after the Celtics come from behind miracle, is among my worst sports memories of all times. Those townies are onery.

  15. jc25 said:

    May 13th, 2009 at 6:29 am

    I hate to sound like a broken record here, but it was pretty much:

    1) Chuck Hayes getting into foul trouble, leaving somewhere between zero and negative three good defenders guarding the paint. Brian Cook is not a good idea; I’m not sure why Adelman didn’t just throw the Dorsey beast out there and see what he can do.

    2) Regression to the mean (and them some) with Battier and Brooks’ shooting prowess combined with Ron Artest’s continued suckage equals instant offensive black hole.

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