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College Baseball and Manufacturing Runs – Quick Followup

Posted by Huckleberry on March 16th, 2009 under Baseball

In my previous post on this topic, I looked at overall scoring by game situation both for the nation as a whole and the 2008 Texas team. I then looked at what we can learn from that information as far as the decisions to bunt or steal.

In the discussion that followed that post, I offered to follow up with an analysis of the runner on first and no out situations we faced last year. One of the commenters asked that I look at the winning percentage based on the decision, so I included that information in this analysis.

In 2008, we faced 129 such situations (in the games that have their box scores posted on texassports.com). We bunted in 34 of the situations, which yielded 19 innings in which we scored for a total of 40 runs. We did not attempt a bunt in 95 of the situations, which yielded 57 innings in which we scored for a total of 137 runs.

Bunting –> 1.18 runs per inning at a 55.9% scoring rate; 0.647 winning percentage resulted
Not bunting –> 1.44 runs per innings at a 60.0% scoring rate; 0.653 winning percentage resulted

To be frank, I find the winning percentage result somewhat uninformative because of standard variance during a season. As I stated previously, winning is just as much about pitching and defense as it is about offense. Exactly as much, not more Mr. Sportscaster Cliché Guy.

Anyway, the important thing to note is how well our results line up with our calculations from the previous exercise. Bunting cost our team about 1/4 of a run and resulted in a lower scoring rate. This seems to be a fairly predictable result in the modern college baseball environment.

I took one more step and eliminated the games against “lower quality” competition. I took out situations against Alabama A&M, Sam Houston St., TAMU-CC, Texas Southern, Texas St., UTA, UTPA, and UTSA. Yes, we lost to UTA and UTSA last year in mid-week games. Doesn’t change the point.

Against the other opponents, the results were:

Bunting –> 1.11, 55.6%; 0.593
Not Bunting –> 1.32, 61.6%; 0.603

A little odd that the scoring rates were up, but the runs per inning and winning percentage were down, which makes sense.

Once again, this was all by hand and so there may be an error here or there, but the point is the general trends. In the interest of full disclosure, this study had a fairly small sample size for an analysis like this. For example, if one of the bunt situations had resulted in a 6-run inning that in reality yielded a scoreless frame, then bunting would have produced more runs per inning. I hope to be able to add this season to the study for a larger sample size and if so will release the updated findings at the end of the year.

A final note: Augie doesn’t bunt as often in this situation as I thought he did. This both surprised and pleased me. Furthermore, his bunt rate was lower against better teams. Does he have an innate understanding that bunting isn’t as wise as he lets on? Or will the bunt rate go way up without Kyle Russell in the middle of the order?

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18 Responses

  1. Truck's Son said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 7:17 am

    You need to bring this exercise back to around the 2000 season to be honest about what your analyzing. What were the numbers during our Omaha run vs the numbers in 06 through 08?

  2. ed said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 8:01 am

    What you write is informative; it also fails to take into consideration issues like who was batting in these situations, who was pitching, and what the fielding capabilities of the opponent were. Also the score at the time.

    My view is that the bunt tells your own players “one run is the goal.” Playing for the big inning seems a better way to win. Outs are precious; don’t hand the other team one, make them EARN all three outs.

  3. Huckleberry said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 8:32 am

    Truck’s Son -

    I would love to be honest. Do you happen to have the play-by-play of all Texas baseball games from 2000 to 2008?

    ed –

    Such a specific analysis might be interesting, but it would be pretty much useless due to limited data. If I want to compile the information to determine the best decision when a batter with a .350-.375 OBP, .450-.475 SLG, and bunting skill of 6 on a scale from 2-8 is facing a right-handed pitcher with a K/BB ratio of 2.5-2.7, with a defense with a ground ball fielding percentage of 0.970-0.975 when down by one run in the ninth inning, I’m probably going to be left with so few data points as to make the results meaningless.

    The information we do have tells us that you better have a really good reason to bunt because the base scenario tells you it’s a shitty idea. Essentially, you have to justify a decision to bunt, not so much a decision not to bunt.

    And, of course, I’m completely on board with the idea that the out is the most precious commodity an offense has. Certainly more valuable than one base in runner position in nearly all situations.

  4. Joe Morgan said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 9:47 am

    If I want to compile the information to determine the best decision when a batter with a .350-.375 OBP, .450-.475 SLG, and bunting skill of 6 on a scale from 2-8 is facing a right-handed pitcher with a K/BB ratio of 2.5-2.7, with a defense with a ground ball fielding percentage of 0.970-0.975…

    That’s nice, but you’ve ignored the most important factors: cosistancy, heart and intangibles.

  5. Huckleberry said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 10:04 am

    Nice. Love the consinstancy cosistentsy concisstancy cosistancy reference.

  6. Truck's Son said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 10:35 am

    Sacrifice hits in the Augie era:

    1997 – 50
    1998 – 63
    1999 – 54
    2000 – 126
    2001 – 91
    2002 – 46
    2003 – 97
    2004 – 96
    2005 – 116
    2006 – 95
    2007 – 76
    2008 – 64

  7. Huckleberry said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 10:38 am

    So we won the national championship in a year where we had the fewest sacrifices in the Augie era and in a year where we had the second most sacrifices in the Augie era.

    What are we supposed to take from that information?

  8. Scipio Tex said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 10:40 am

    I don’t know, Huck! Spell it out for us!

    Statistics confusing! Science confusing.

    Bunting good. Advance runners! Art of managing! Three run homer inelegant!

  9. BatesHorn said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 10:53 am

    Huck- Do the little things. Bring your experience and clubhouse prescence to the statistical table. Your a veteran at these things, and you have alot to impart to the young stat guys. They are really soaking it up.

    Most importantly: You’re clutch.

  10. Scipio Tex said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 10:58 am

    I credit his chemistry for much of his clutchitude.

    Chemistry inspired by liberal applications of Axe Body Spray.

  11. Jeff Ontiveros said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 11:38 am

    What is bunting?

  12. Truck's Son said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

    “What are we supposed to take from that information?”

    Whatever you want. I posted because I was surprised to find that we had so few sac bunts in 2002. Probably b/c that team hit the crap out of the baseball. Majewski hit over .400 and there were guys like Moss, Quintanilla, Reininger, Fahey, Ontiveros, Hubele… That team also hit 68 HRs and outscored opponents 511 to 239.

    Combined with one of the best pitching staffs Augie has had, maybe we just got up early in most games and never looked back.

  13. Texantt said:

    March 16th, 2009 at 1:34 pm

    Seriously, this was interesting because I thought Augie bunted more as well. Basically, he’s doing this in situations to minimize a double play and take the bat out of a crappy batter’s hands. It’s still a “Gut” call for him, though.

  14. Chang said:

    March 17th, 2009 at 4:49 am

    I still wonder about the psychological variables. I’ve heard Augie say several times how he has his kids bunt simply because it gives them a high chance to be successful in a way that breeds “team,” creating a culture where a bunch of little victories lead to winning games.

    Might be true.

  15. Chang said:

    March 17th, 2009 at 4:58 am

    Also wonder if it allows you to plug in kids with better gloves into the lineup, knowing that you’ll be relying on them to bunt once a game rather than swinging away each time.

  16. Scipio Tex said:

    March 17th, 2009 at 7:39 am

    Chang:

    Bunting certainly does allow you to plug better gloves into the lineup. However, most baseball analysis will tell you that defense is first and foremost about pitching and that an individual’s defense – though very helpful – should always be weighed substantially less than a player’s primary potential contribution: the ability to score runs.

  17. Derek Jeter said:

    March 17th, 2009 at 3:52 pm

    Have you seen my jumpthrow from the hole? It’s sweet!!!

  18. Texantt said:

    March 21st, 2009 at 7:15 am

    OK, we are two series into the Big 12 and have NO comments on how our Horns are starting to crack? Brandon Belt just gave away the game on Friday in Lawrence. I MUST VENT!!!

    go horns

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