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Basketball Next Year: How The Pieces Fit

Posted by Scipio Tex on March 4th, 2009 under Basketball

I want to talk about the new blood coming in, how it will be infused into the body of our current roster, discuss the actions of our platelets as they staunch the wound of our bleeding while white blood cells race to battle the infection of poor shooting and….I’ve run out of blood metaphors.

Anyway, we’re going to be good next year. And we’ll probably be elite in 2011, 2012.

We lose:

A.J. Abrams G
Connor Atchley F/C

We possibly lose:

Damion James G/F 6-7 222

We’ll talk about the roster with and without Damion.

J’Covan Brown is the Easter Bunny.

PG

Jai Lucas G 5-10 160 So
Dogus Balbay G 6-0 176 Jr


Soul Man taught a deeply nuanced lesson about stereotypes

The contrarian in me loves that the European is the spectacular athlete while the NBA genetic product is the heady, disciplined shooter. We’re going to play a two-headed point guard next year and that hydra will give opposing defenses completely different looks. Each player has fatal flaws in their game that prevent them from being elite point guards; in fact, each has exactly what the other needs, but we do not have the technology to meld them together into Jai Doge. Yet.

Balbay is going to give us pace, creativity, defensive stops, the ability to pressure passing lanes, and poor shooting. He does for others and takes great care of the basketball. Defenses will sag on him like Ricki Lake’s teats. His faults are obvious, but a lot of coaches would kill for this guy to give them 20 good minutes a game.

Lucas is a heady guy that can get in the lane with his savvy (but rarely finishes there unless it’s a little float shot) and, like his older brother, is deadly at draining the open three. He’s physically weak and a below average one-on-one defender, but he can make savvy team defense plays. Nor is he a classic creator. What he does do is think like a coach, understand game situations, and make basketball IQ plays.

I’m not a total fan of his game, to be truthful, but I think he has real value in complement with Suleyman the Magnificent. Yes, I know he was selected a McDonald’s All-American, but I think it was part of a promotion for sending in a bunch of french fry receipts.

Bottom line: our point guard play gets better. I’d play each 20 minutes a game and in sum total you’ll end up with a combo at point guard that goes for 13 ppg with 6-7 dimes. Jai gets the crunch time minutes in close games.

SG

Avery Bradley G 6-3 180 Fr
Justin Mason G 6-2 194 Sr
Varez Ward G 6-2 190 So
Harrison Smith G 6-2 195 Sr

Harrison Smith will provide scrappy spirit and the ability for Barnes to mock starters by replacing them with him when they piss him off. He’s Ian Mooney.

Avery Bradley starts. I don’t know if it’s game one, but certainly by conference play. Avery possesses a unique, strange game once though to be extinct since the graduation of Maryland’s Juan Dixon. Once upon a time, in a fundamental world long gone, there was a time when guards had something called “a mid-range game.”

The “mid-range game” consisted of a guard driving to the basket and then unexpectedly rising 15 feet away to shoot a “jump shot.” I’ve seen old grainy footage of Joe Dumars doing this in playoff games, but I know that anyone under 25 is going to call me a liar. Impossible! You can’t just elevate out of a drive while under control and shoot! It’s not a dunk! Or a three pointer!


What manner of wizardry is this?

Bradley is a lockdown defender who excels at shutting down elite scorers on the AAU circuit the way Michael Moore gets shut down at the Playboy Mansion.

He’s a major tough guy as well. Like Golda Meir.

Justin Ward Varez Mason, who are the same player, will play comfortable roles as lockdown defenders, the third guard when teams go small against us, sneaky offensive rebounders, will steal a few minutes at 3, and act as general troublemakers. I think Mason in particular will benefit from going back to his traditional role. Could Varez be a transfer possibility if he can’t look beyond next year’s diminished minutes to a junior and senior year where he’ll be a key player?

I’d love to have a pure shooter off the bench instead of two redundant defensive stoppers. I’d also like to own an ocelot. But neighborhood associations frown on exotics after a pack of sugar gliders mauled a soccer Mom in Tarrytown. So my point is this: love the one you’re with.

SF

Jordan Hamilton F 6-6 210 Fr
Shawn Williams F 6-6 210 Fr


Yes, he actually is Straight Outta Compton. The nice part.

Much like the fabled “mid-range game”, there are some teams rumored to possess a creature known as “small forward” or a “3.” No, not 6-4 Brandon Mouton or 6-2 Justin Mason. No, not a PF playing SF like Damion James dribbling off his knee when he faces up on someone.

I’m talking about a 6-6 player who can dribble, shoot, drive, rebound, slash, cut, defend, finish in transition, and is too big for smalls, too quick for bigs. I’m talking about Jordan Hamilton. He’s going to play for us. He’s good.

Shawn Williams is another one of these unicorns. He’s not the pure talent that Hamilton is, but he can drain 3s and he’s a good four year player. It will be interesting to see if Barnes would prefer to spread Ward and Mason’s minutes to 3 backing up Hamilton to allow the redshirt, but my guess is that he plays right away.

Overall, small forward takes a giant leap forward. No pun intended.

C/PF


Take Dex’s charge? Gottleib would…on a credit card

Dexter Pittman C 6-10 298 Sr
Damion James F 6-7 222 Sr
Gary Johnson F 6-6 233 Jr
Alexis Wangmene F/C 6-7 241 So
Clint Chapman F/C 6-10 235 Jr
Matt Hill F/C 6-10 241 Jr

If Damion James returns, he and Barnes need to reconcile themselves to his playing PF. I’m sorry that SF is what the NBA needs Damion to be, but that doesn’t serve us at all. If he returns, we’re getting a world class rebounder and a guy who, when guarded by the other team’s PF, does have the ability to face up and get to the rim or sink an open three. He’ll give us 15/9, no worries.

Big Dex is going to wreck stuff next year. Surrounding him with multiple players who can take their man off of the dribble and force a rotation will guarantee him three dunks a game just by standing on the low block with his hands up. Not to mention his developing post game.

Dexter has beautiful hands and his ability to finish around the rim is only going to increase as he learns to use both of them and play the angles under the rim. If he can give us 25 minutes before he fouls out, we’re looking at a 14/10 guy who can also body up the other’s team big man scoring threat and frustrate with his strength and immovable base. Ask Blake Griffin and Robin Lopez. I love Dex and I’m really excited to see what he can be.

Gary Johnson gives us a tough guy game with some ability to face up and create his own shot against bigger players. The elbow jumper will continue to come and he’s getting better at finishing off of his powerful drives. If Damion comes back, he’s an important sixth man. If Damion doesn’t, Gary can replace his production.

I like Alex Wangmene’s game and he seems likely for a medical shirt if he wanted to extend his eligibility. Alex is such a powerful kid and he has a great wingspan. Both allow him to defend much taller players and finish around the basket. Alex was developing a real game beyond power moves late last year and I think his upside is outstanding. I don’t want to see a transfer.

Clint Chapman shows you just enough “Where the hell did that come from?” ability such that you can’t write him off. He’s a legit 6-10, crazy long, and is learning to finish. He’s a rebounding liability against physical players, but he covers ground like an enraged goose. He has a redshirt season available to him, so a transfer is a very realistic possibility if he wants to get back to the Pacific NW and be the man at Oregon State.

Matt Hill missed all of last year and though he can do some fundamental things for you rebounding, blocking out, playing OK defense, he’s an offensive liability. He is a transfer possibility.

Overall, this is pretty nasty frontcourt, no matter how you slice it. With or without Damion James. We’ll have guys who can finish, defend, and we can mix and match a lot of components to match up to very specific problems. In an ideal world, we’d have one big man who can step out and hit a 3 pointer, but I’m not opposed to the old fashioned three point play of a Dexter Pittman finish with the foul.

With respect to transfers, if Damion James wants to come back or if J’Covan Brown manages to discover an Algebra class on his transcript that he in fact attended, we’ll need one to occur. If we had to have one, I’d sacrifice, in order of desirability: Hill, Chapman, Wangmene/Ward (tie).

We’re also looking forward to Trips Right’s Crystal Ball Post. Stay tuned.

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30 Responses

  1. Bob in Houston said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 3:24 pm

    Ricki Lake, huh?

    Hey dude, there’s parchment with shots of Vinnie Johnson doing stuff like that Dumars guy. I loved Vinnie Johnson. Especially when I got to see him from press row at the Drum back in the day, and he looked like a fullback. Nobody got in his way… nobody.

    Hill would be an unlikely transfer, IMO. Given that he already has redshirted because of injury, he has only one year to offer, say, Creighton.

    If he drops below D-I, he can play two years, of course.

  2. hiphopopotamus said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

    We’ll of course have to see how the new pieces fit in, but there is a whole shit ton of potential there over the next couple years.

    Biggest immediate liability I see is three point shooting…

  3. Nordberg said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 3:49 pm

    Won’t Lucas, Hamilton, Williams, and Bradley more than take care of that?

  4. EggNog said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 4:05 pm

    Dwyane Wade only barely hit double digit threes the first few years of his NBA career, didn’t attempt too many either. He is the current king of the midrange, though he has developed a long range game this year. Rip Hamilton lives off the midrange game as well. There are a couple (not enough) role models for that style.

    Damion could have his best season by far if he sticks around and the new guys pan out. He is best as third or fourth option offensively. He has no real offensive moves, but is so gifted athletically that he can abuse the third or fourth best defender on an opposing college team.

    Barnes has never had a problem throwing out a lineup with one big and four perimeter guys of offense. If our four best players next year fit that mold, we will do it. We could even see it for stretches, especially if we want to play with more on the ball pressure. Running Balbay out with 3 other perimeter guys leaves alot more room for him to penetrate and discourages defenses from packing it in around Dex. Of course, we have to see how well these new guys can shoot first.

  5. Texoz said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 4:14 pm

    Hiphop,
    I think Jai will provide some decent 3’s. More importantly, with the talent we have coming in I forsee a lot more space on the 3-point arc as defenders will be packed in the paint to defend our big men.

    I predict that by mid-season the opposing teams will be so preoccupied with guarding our big men and protecting the paint that the 3-point arch will be golden to our PGs and SGs.

  6. SkymonkeyHorn said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

    Shit just wrote 4-5 paragraphs on next years team with comments on Vinnie and the BadBoys,
    Dog shooting right handed and hitting 61% from the floor, Jordan rebounding like DJ on acid etc,. Shit lost it all on a reboot….

  7. Facebook User said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 4:18 pm

    Quit bitching and type it up. We want to see your thoughts.

  8. PB @ BON said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 7:54 pm

    Good read, Scipio. Many agrees, just a couple additional thoughts.

    * I don’t love Jai Lucas’ game either, and I think you’re lowballing Dogus. I don’t think it’s going to be possible to play him just 20 minutes a game. Lucas will have his role and can play as a Dogus sub for 10 minutes + another 10 as, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say, a more versatile AJ Abrams at the 2 when Bradley’s not on the floor.

    * I don’t see it with Chapman. At all. He’s soft, mentally and physically. His Balbay-like free throw numbers put the final nail in the coffin for me. Kid’s mentally soft — similarly skilled to Brian Boddicker, but in a thong… with half the strength and none of the toughness. He should transfer to a less physical conference than the B12.

  9. ATXHornsFan said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 8:05 pm

    PB, disagree on Chapman. I think he’s got it. The question is whether “it” will develop and mature here in Austin or somewhere else. Although the free throw shooting is appalling. “3 for 19″ sounds like it should be a sarcastic comment being directed by Dean Wormer to one of the Deltas.

    Scip, excellent preview at a good time – we need a lift.

    BTW – Tech up double digits on Kansas in the 2nd half. ESPN2

  10. Black Scholes said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 8:07 pm

    If we needed to free a roster spot next year – which I don’t think will come to pass – wouldn’t you just kneecap Smith and have him take a medical and finish out his degree? This seemed obvious to me, and then about 10 days ago he decided to start contributing.

    Hate to run off a big man. Maybe Hill just needs to reinstate the ‘do.

  11. Callkevin said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 8:10 pm

    I like Alexis Wangmene very much. I hope he stays. Since he only played in the first five games, and is noted as “out for the rest of the year” because of knee surgery in the game notes, I have to assume he’s redshirting.

    On a side note, “Six University of Texas men’s basketball players have earned a spot on the 2009 Academic All-Big 12 Men’s Basketball Team, the league office announced Wednesday. UT’s six selections marked the most of any school in the conference.

    Senior Connor Atchley, junior Damion James and sophomores Dogus Balbay and Gary Johnson were each named to the First Team, while juniors Justin Mason and Dexter Pittman were selected to the Second Team.”

    That’s good.

  12. PB @ BON said:

    March 4th, 2009 at 8:11 pm

    ATX: I’m in the minority on Chapman, I know. Watching him on the road, though… I don’t see it coming together. If he stays, I’ll hope you’re right, sir.

    And yes, interesting night in hoops so far. Kansas trailing to Tech, Mizzou sticking it to OU, and LSU drops one to Vandy? Must be March…

  13. CrazyJoeDavola said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 12:37 am

    PB, I don’t think you’re in the minority on Chapman. I imagine most observers are pretty negative about the guy. I’ve seen enough flashes in his game to think he’s got potential, but there’s just no consistency. Maybe he can be the next Jason Klotz or something.

    An aside: I thought Boddicker was one of the most underappreciated Horn players ever. I mean, there were Horn fans who HATED the guy with an intensity rarely seen in places other than Chris Simms’ cell phone.

    KU’s loss to Tech makes our struggles against the Raiders a little more palatable. I’m guessing that once they fell behind, KU didn’t see much point in exerting a lot of effort to catch up on the road. They’ll save that for us on their Senior Day, of course. I hope we can stay within 15.

    OU at Mizzou was a pretty easy call. The WSJ has an article on how hard it is to win on the road in men’s college hoops.

    The first two paragraphs:

    “The road winning percentage in major men’s college basketball is .340 — meaning the road team wins roughly one out of every three games.

    Somewhere on Earth there may be a sport in which this figure is lower. But it isn’t the NBA, NHL, American or Australian football, English or Argentine soccer, Major League Baseball, Japanese baseball, Dominican winter baseball, or any of two dozen other sports leagues.”

  14. Crumdinger said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 2:59 am

    Remember, an enraged goose brought you into this world and an enraged goose can take you out.

    How about a little player development, please? Chapman could be the next Klotz.

  15. Bob in Houston said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 5:52 am

    Believe it or not, what you are seeing with Chapman is player development. He’s no longer just screening or trying to hit the boards. He’s shooting the ball. He’s driving.

    That said, I’m more with PB than the rest of the crowd. He still looks uncomfortable out there, hasn’t caught up to the speed of the game. His touch around the hoop comes and goes, and he sure hasn’t made any FTs.

    If there’s a chance that James is coming back, Pittman and Hill already have put in three years, and Tristan Thompson is coming, when is Chapman going to stand out? He won’t be a starter. He could be a capable backup, but when would that happen?

  16. Max said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 5:56 am

    “I’d also like to own an ocelot. But neighborhood associations frown on exotics after a pack of sugar gliders mauled a soccer Mom in Tarrytown.”

    Oops, big laugh at work.

  17. hiphopopotamus said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 6:16 am

    Texoz – I agree. Just off the cuff, I’m not sure I see enough natural range there. Not a huge detriment, but maybe the difference between being really good and great, or something like that.

  18. Nordberg said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 6:51 am

    “An aside: I thought Boddicker was one of the most underappreciated Horn players ever. I mean, there were Horn fans who HATED the guy”

    I knew some of these people. They are called morons.

  19. jc25 said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 8:19 am

    If you say Jai Balbay or Dogus Lucas out loud, it’s weird how both mash-ups almost rhyme, yet completely don’t look that way at all on paper. At the very least, it beats thinking about Ricki Lake’s knockers.

    It’s a small thing, but I’m curious in imagining how the season would’ve played out if Chapman had been out for the season as opposed to Wangmene. The Wingman’s superior athleticism and uncompromising badassery would’ve been a complete 180 for post bench minutes. Although that doesn’t solve out outside shooting woes.

    People may have hated Boddicker because it looked like he spent more time refining his hair than his game. I felt that the Bod contributed more over this Longhorn career than Buckman, but since Buckman looked and played like Joe the Plumber, he was appreciated a lot more.

  20. ctex80 said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 8:59 am

    It seems as though our personnel next year really lends itself to two specific offenses. One with Lucas, one with Balbay.

    Pittman’s playing time should coincide with Lucas’. 4 out, 1 in, and with actual shooters on the perimeter, Dex becomes an absolute nightmare to defend. Where does the double come from with Lucas, Bradley, Hamilton, and Johnson/James on the floor?

    With Balbay at the helm, Dexy goes to the bench, we make Johnson and James the bigs, and run like hell. Teams would have a hell of a time matching up with Balbay, Bradley, Hamilton/Mason, Johnson, James.

    The question is whether or not we can effectively run a bi-polar offense.

  21. The General said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 9:52 am

    I’m with PB on Clint Chapman. He has some nice basketball skills, but does not have the strength or toughness. If he stays, the best we can hope for is Connor’s junior year on offense out of an inferior defender.

    Based on absolutely no evidence whatsoever, I think he transfers.

  22. 98 said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 9:54 am

    ctex80

    wet dreams.

  23. Texas Wahoo said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 11:06 am

    Boddicker played with so much intensity when he wanted to. Whenever anyone fouled him or got too close to him, it looked like he wanted to punch them in the face. I was always worried he was going to crack at some point and get thrown out.

  24. Scipio Tex said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 2:20 pm

    I loved Boddicker. He was such a lighting rod for opposing team’s fans that it always brought our team together. He instilled toughness and it’s no coincidence that when he was here we were a damn good road team.

  25. J Brown said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

    Come this June you can look for my ass in Austex. I’ll be the most real Easter Bunny you’ve ever seen.

  26. sl xpress said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

    Thinking about James being back next year is a pipe dream.

    I also don’t think it does James’ any good. Next year’s draft is going to be a lot better, and with the players Texas is bringing in, there will be less of an opportunity to develop his abilities as a perimeter player than there were this year. He needs to be in the pros.

    There are a lot of aspects of James I’m going to real miss — his work ethic, his ability to hit the jumper, his loyalty, his athleticism. He’s just an all around great kid, who’s overcome a lot to get where he is.

    As far as the team goes, though, I’m really going to miss his rebounding. The team is going to improve in a bunch of ways next year, but I’m expecting both offensive and defensive rebounding to take a hit because of James’ departure.

  27. Trips Right said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 3:36 pm

    James texts his high school coach on a daily basis and Robert claims he’s coming back. Whether or not DJ’s being honest might be a different story.

    Honestly though, what kind of pro will he be? Will he even make a roster? He can’t face up against 3’s in the league, and I doubt one can find a 4 that he can guard.

  28. Trips Right said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

    Scipio, great post. Any follow up post of a similar topic better bring the wood, so I have my work cut out for me in that respect. If the market can find it in its heart to stay in the black on consecutive days, maybe I’ll have time to shower, shave, and make a crystal ball post.

  29. sl xpress said:

    March 5th, 2009 at 10:20 pm

    Why would he be lying?

    Nonetheless, I don’t believe there’s a chance in hell he’s coming back.

    I don’t see the idea of Damion texting his high school assistant coach constantly, and the assistant coach insisting he’s coming back, necessarily mutually exclusive with Damion actually entering the pros, all the while everyone is telling the truth. But we’ll see.

  30. ip said:

    April 23rd, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    This notion that Jordan Hamilton is more talented than Shawn Williams is the most asinine thing I have ever heard. The problem is that most of you who write this stuff have no basis for it other than what you’ve read on another website and based on rankings. I live in Cali and have seen Jordan Hamilton play numerous times and while he can play he is nowhere near as good as all you clowns on this site try to make him out to be. His own AAU coach told me that he was good but he wasn’t as good as he or other people think he is. Greg Hicks over at Scout.com has told me repeatedly that he is vastly overrated and he does all the scouting for the West Coast. Dave Telep who is the head scout at Scout.com told me point blank that there were kids who made the McDonald’s team who weren’t as talented as Shawn Williams and Telep has a vote on the committee. You take that for what it’s worth and stop all this crazy talking ya’ll doing man.

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    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Top 8 Teams in College Hoops   1 hour, 12 minutes ago

    Georgetown?

  • RRR commented on the blog post Thoughts on the win in Austin   1 hour, 13 minutes ago

    Good write up, hiphop. I love the versatitility of the Morris twins on defense. Xavier Henry is probably the key to a big run in the tournament. If he starts hitting open looks, the inside game will really open up. Post to post passing is fun to watch.

    It’s pretty nice when

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  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem   1 hour, 16 minutes ago

    PB, just talking. I’m not ready to replace him but something has to change. The comment about playing 3 on 5 three quarters into the season is just astoundingly bad.

  • Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas   1 hour, 25 minutes ago

    Here is more info on Frazier. He is such a great player, and Arkansas needs to land him in a big way.

    http://www.kiehlfrazier15.com/Home.html

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow1mOrMQXYw

    These Highlights are from his Sophomore year, and he had a bigger and better 2009. OH MY!

  • Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas   1 hour, 25 minutes ago

    Here is more info on Frazier. He is such a great player, and Arkansas needs to land him in a big way.

    http://www.kiehlfrazier15.com/Home.html

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow1mOrMQXYw

    These Highlights are from his Sophomore year, and he had a bigger and better 2009. OH MY!

  • Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas   1 hour, 25 minutes ago

    Here is more info on Frazier. He is such a great player, and Arkansas needs to land him in a big way.

    http://www.kiehlfrazier15.com/Home.html

    These Highlights are from his Sophomore year, and he had a bigger and better 2009. OH MY!

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem   1 hour, 28 minutes ago

    It takes more time…unless you’re a Kentucky fan.

  • RRR commented on the blog post Mid-Season Thoughts and OU Pre-Game   1 hour, 29 minutes ago

    Thanks Trips. I’m hoping for lots of Willie Warren trying to be Sheron Collins. TMG in sync is the scariest thing to face in Norman. That or we get beat up on the boards which seems to be recurring theme of Texas Tech road games.

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  • slugfest commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem   1 hour, 30 minutes ago

    I don’t think it’s a case of RB not being able to coach, or doing a poor job of coaching. If you read the entirety of Katz’ blog post, he clearly sounds like a coaching searching for answers — answers that come in the form of players contributing, doing what they are coached to do.