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Recruiting Data From the Combine- 2009

Posted by TaylorTRoom on February 11th, 2009 under Football

I have an annual hobby of taking the list of college players invited to the NFL Combine (http://www.nfl.com/combine/players), and noting what they were rated as recruits out of high school or junior college.  I think the resulting data is very revealing about talent acquisition and development.  I look at the Combine list as the best metric available for measuring individual collegiate talent.  It has these positive traits:

1.  It is objective.  The list is developed by NFL scouts.  Any biases for particular programs are diversified out by the numbers of scouts making inputs.  The Combine invites All-Americans and no-name players from Division 2 that were unranked out of high school.

2.  It discriminates.  I mean the good definition of “discriminates” here.  College football all-star ratings are dominated by multi-year starters at successful programs.  Terrific players at low profile programs are often ignored.  The Combine tries to move past all of that.  They invite the guys they are interested in, no matter how wretched their program, and ignore those they don’t want.

3.  It sets a constant “bar”.  Too often, when reviewing recruit classes five years later, success or failure is determined by counting lettermen and starters.  The problem is that somebody has to start at North Texas, but that doesn’t make them a good player- they may just be the least worst player.  Conversely, the guy backing up Darren McFadden might actually be pretty talented, even if he never had a chance to show it.  The Combine list provides a measure that ignores depth charts and college program quality.

There are also problem with using the Combine list for rating the quality of college players:

1.  The list is a pass/fail list.  It does not rate or rank players.  Sure, there are informal rankings- some players are so highly considered that they can set the terms of their workouts.  Others had better do all of the drills or they will be sent home.  Now, being a pass/fail test is not all bad.  A highly touted 5-star recruit may not have become the big time star he expected, but can’t be said to be a bust if he gets invited to the Combine- he cleared a major hurdle on the way to being a pro.  Meanwhile, a non-ranked recruit from a Division 2 school with an invite has made a great achievement.

2.  The list focuses on NFL needs in talent, and ignores unique college needs.  For example, Pat White was not invited to the Combine.  Stephen McGee was.  The Combine invites a bunch of kickers and deep snappers every year, too.

Overall, I think being invited to the Combine is the best gauge we have of whether a player was a difference-maker or not.  That’s useful, because we can then measure how good the recruiting services are at rating recruits’ potential.  Are the blue chip recruits really worth all the attention they get?

Yes, they are.  The NFL invited 330 players to the 2009 Combine.  13 of them were 5-star recruits, from any of the 2004 (RS senior Bomar) thru 2006 (early entrants like Matt Stafford) classes.  Over the last three years, 51 of the players at the Combine were 5-star recruits.  Given that only about 30 – 35 players per year are rated as 5-stars, you can conclude that a 5-star recruit has a 50% chance of being invited to the Combine in the next few years.  The 2009 Combine is inviting 66 players who were 4-star recruits.  That represents about 25% of all 4-star recruits in a given year.

 Damn.  This post is long.  It needs a picture.  Here’s a guy who transferred from Texas to get out of a depth chart logjam.

After three years of reviewing this data, I’m coming to the opinion that the recruiting services really don’t do as good of a job in differentiating between 2-star and 3-star talent.  Here’s why- in 2004, Rivals rated 33 recruits as 5-stars, 239 as 4-stars, 1725 as 2-stars, and the rest were either 1-star (rare) or unranked.  Of that class, 14 of the 5-stars were invited to a combine from 2006 – 2009 (42.4%), 60 of the 4-stars were invited (25.1%), 94 of the 3-stars were invited (15.5%), 94 of the 2-stars (5.45%), and 45 unranked recruits ended up at a combine.  Yes, a smaller percentage of 2-stars make it to the NFL Combine than 3-stars.  Given the numbers involved, shouldn’t the difference be larger if the rankers really knew what they were doing?  Should the 45 unranked players really be that anonymous after high school?  After all, those 45 guys (granted- about a fifth were kickers) had real NFL potential.

It seems clear to me that the data supports the idea that you want a bunch of 5-stars and 4-stars in your class.  Some will point out that 50% of 5-stars and 75% of 4-stars wash out or have mediocre careers.  I counter that by pointing out that 85% of 3-stars and 95% of 2-stars wash out or have mediocre careers.

I realize this is a little inexact.  There will be some guys make the NFL as undrafted free agents who never went to the Combine.  There always have been.  That said, the odds are not with the guys who don’t go to the Combine.  The Combine guys are the NFL equivalent of the 4-star and 5-star recruits.  They have a significantly better chance of making the NFL than the guys who have to work their way up as undrafted free agents.

To me, the best measure of a recruiting class is how many difference makers it produced.  The NFL Combine list is the best metric for counting elite contributors.  As evidence, here is a list of the programs that produce the most NFL Combine participants for the last three years combined-

USC (28), LSU (25), Texas (21), OU (21), VT (20), Tenn (20), tOSU (19), Florida (19), Georgia (18), Clemson (17), and Michigan (17).  These were the teams with the most talent the last few years.  They either had the best teams (all of the MNC game teams for the last few years are represented), or had coaches fired for underperforming (Tennessee, Clemson, and Michigan).  Beamer at VT doesn’t come under fire because his recruiting classes weren’t ranked as elite.  They just turned out that way, which was nice (more on him later).

I have used this data in the past to develop my own recruit class ranking method.  I use this formula:

(Expected Difference-makers) = (# of 5-stars)*.5 + (# of 4-stars)*.25 + (Remainder)*.1

It’s a simple formula.  Basically, it ignores all qualitative assessment except for that which went into the Rivals rating.  Texas’ 2003 class had (1) 5-star, (11) 4-stars, and (6) 3-stars.  Per my formula, this class was expected to yield 3.85 Combine-worthy players.  It actually produced 7 (Crowder, Sweed, Pittman, Hill, Griffin, Griffin, and Brown).  This was a good outcome.  The 2003 USC and OU classes were each expected to yield 4.8 Combine players.  USC produced 12 and OU produced one.  This shows the variability possible in recruiting classes.  But still, consider what this tool does- it discards half of the 5-stars, ¾ of the 4-stars, and allows for a few of the lower rated players to succeed.

Usually, this tool is a good estimator of overall talent.  It predicted that TAMU would have experienced elite talent comparable to Texas in 2006 and 2007 (7.45 predicted combine players from 2003 and 2004 classes; 7 actual Combine players).  It predicted that LSU would be one of the most talented teams in 2007 and 2008.

Here’s how it rated the Big 12 south classes from 2009-

UT: 4.85

OU:  3.95

TAMU:  3.8

TT:  3.35

OSU:  3.25

BU :  3.15

Now, scouting ability is just one part of the process that makes a successful recruit class.  The other aspect is, let’s say, “development”.  What happens with recruits in their 3 – 5 years on campus?  Do they get stronger?  Do they become technicians at their positions?  Do they improve in ways that make them elite playmakers?

I don’t know.  And really, I don’t care.  To me, it doesn’t matter why a recruit class exceeds or falls short of expectations.  It could be exceptional scouting, or exceptional “development”.  If the end result is more NFL-caliber players than reasonably could be expected, who can carp?  This tool is a great way to predict a class’ quality on signing day, and to grade it years later.

Time for another picture.  Here’s a guy who never even played college ball. 

I’ve got data from the past three combines.  Most of the final results of the 2003 and 2004 recruiting classes are in, except for a handful of Utah recruits that have a couple more years of eligibility.  I have enough data to answer some interesting questions-

1.  Does the quality of recruits vary any from year to year?  Yes, it does, among the elite players.  Remember, when we’re looking at the NFL combine players, we’re looking at the right tail of the bell curve of talent.  The 2003 recruit class sent 283 players to an NFL Combine (2006, 2007, 2008, or 2009).  The 2004 recruit class sent 321 to date, with a few stragglers (like Jordan Shipley) still out there.  That’s quite a difference.  In other words, when choosing players to invite, the NFL scouts decided they like the 320th best player from the 2004 class more than the 285th best player from the 2003 class.  If talent can vary that much, year to year, on a national level, it’s safe to assume it fluctuates even more on a state level. 

2.  Do any coaches show the ability to consistently outperform expectations with their recruit classes?  Yes.  Pete Carroll, Mack Brown, Joe Paterno, Nick Saban, and Lloyd Carr all outperformed expectations (yielding Combine-invited players) with each of their 2003 and 2004 classes.  Bob Stoops’ 2003 class dramatically underperformed, and his 2004 class slightly overperformed.  Franchione, Tressell, Richt, Tuberville, Meyer, Willingham, Bowden and Beamer overperformed one year and underperformed one year.  Leach underperformed both years.  Note to conspiracy theorists in Brazos County- if Texas recruits were rated higher than they deserve, the proof would be in the final outcomes- you would expect Texas to underperform its projections.  It has done the opposite instead.

An interesting observation- when looking at the 2003-2004 classes combined, Brown, Carroll, Tressell, Richt, Carr, Paterno, Beamer, Carr, Saban, and Willinghham all out-performed expectations.  This makes me think that the coaches at the flagship schools actually do get to be more discerning.  They aren’t lying when they claim to recruit based on their own evaluations, rather than those of ratings services.  This leads to…

3.  Fans of major BCS programs should never fret when their school signs a 2-star recruit.  A review of the data reveals that although a 2-star recruit has less chance than a 3-star recruit of becoming elite, the 2-star recruits from the major programs do about as well as the 3-stars, percentage-wise.  I think the thing to remember here is that a major program never offers a 2-star because they ran out of 3-stars to recruit.  Rather, they offer the 2-star in lieu of score of 3-stars they could sign.

4.  Funny thing I’ve noted- I also track the Texans (played HS ball in Texas) invited to the Combine.  In 2007, 40 Texans were invited.  In 2008, 41 were invited.  This year, 42 are invited.  What does it mean that there is so little variability in Texans invited each year?  I don’t know, but it looks interesting.  Note that only about 12 of those Texans each year were ever on a Fab 55 list.  Several are guys like Robert Myers (Utah State TE), or Johnnie Lee Higgins (UTEP WR)- unranked guys who went to small colleges with no fanfare, redshirted and played four years.  The key is that they went to places where they could play.  If I could give any advice to a HS player considering offers, it’s this- Go somewhere you will play.  If you find yourself buried on a depth chart after a year or two, and you still want to pursue a football career- transfer.  Every year at the Combine, there are 5 or so players who started at big programs, and finished at smaller ones.  Last year, Joe Flacco was one (was behind Tyler Palko at Pitt).

5.  Are there any positions which seem to be scouted worse?  Yes.  The two positions where an unranked player has the best chance of making it to the Combine are QB and WR.  Over the last three years, 11 out of 61 QBs and 25 out of 147 WRs were not ranked as even 2-star prospects out of high school.  The positions where the rankings matter the most?  RB (5 unranked prospects out of 92 at the Combine the last three years) and DL (10 out of 154).  OL is close (13 out of 158), but five of those 13 unranked OL prospects were guys from schools in the northwest who graduated high school seven years ago.  The vast majority of the unranked guys who make it use redshirt seasons in their collegiate careers.  The typical low-ranked NFL prospect is a WR that went to a non-power program, redshirted, and started three or four years.

6.  To re-emphasize the correlation between recruit ranks and Combine invites one more time- let’s look again at the last three years of data.  1.3% of ranked recruits are 5-stars.  5.2% of the guys at the Combine were 5-stars.  11.6% of recruits were 4-stars or higher.  28.4% of Combine players were 4-stars or higher.  30% of recruits were ranked as 3-stars or higher and 60.4% of combine players were 3-stars or higher.  57% of recruits were 2-stars or higher, and 87.7% of Combine-invited players were 2-stars or higher as recruits.  Convinced?

I hope this has helped you understand the odds in recruiting a little better.  Thoughts?

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54 Responses

  1. PB @ BON said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    Excellent post, TTR. Really great read.

    When I got through point five, I started to wonder whether there was a method to the WR recruiting madness. Maybe there’s a conscious strategic choice to take numbers, knowing that they’re harder to evaluate, harder to project, and vary in development so much.

    Anyway – good stuff.

  2. glenn said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 6:23 pm

    i would be interested to know the percentage of highest-rated four star players vs the five star kids. do the services really do a good job of ranking the real plums?

  3. dick said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 6:30 pm

    Your formula would reward larger classes and therefore be skewed by attrition no? Very interesting still. One thing NFL people don’t care about is academic ability.

  4. jane said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    it seems like you are just jacking yourself off with the numbers. 5-star recruits are more likely to be good than a 2-star? Recruits don’t always pan out the way they were rated? really? It seems like all this analysis is just proving what we already thought. You took the time to really check if that was true though. kudos

  5. Mitch Albom said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 7:10 pm

    I hate you TaylorTRoom.

    You and everything you stand for.

    You are what’s wrong with America.

    And that’s sad.

  6. jane said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 7:15 pm

    no but really, if you could find out any reasons for the accuracy differences between say QBs and RBs?

  7. Nero said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 7:51 pm

    Jane -

    This analysis isn’t proving what we already thought. It’s probing the slight variances from what we already thought.

    DBAD

  8. CloseToJumping said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 8:02 pm

    jane pulls up to illustrate why people without at least a simple background in statistics are pretty much fucked when an environment is competitive, like posting on a board like this.

    I’ve got no qualms with the concept of Brown being grossly misunderestimated and underrated by many of the talking heads and fanbases when it comes to his production with talent. That’s an interesting part of your post.

    The biggest issue I have with our handling of talent is very simple. We don’t force enough attrition within the program anymore. This wasn’t an issue early on within Brown’s program. If you sign guys that don’t wind up cutting it, don’t let them loiter for 4 years on the roster. Offer to help them transfer somewhere where they’ll get a chance to play and sign new 4 & 5 star guys to replace them. This is a luxury and competitive advantage Texas can afford. Your data supports that behavior, although I doubt most would condone it. Up or out in football and the business world are lost philosophies, apparently.

  9. BrickHorn said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 8:17 pm

    jane pulls up to illustrate why people without at least a simple background in statistics are pretty much fucked when an environment is competitive, like posting on a board like this.

    It’s refreshing to see someone other than echeese fill that role once in a while.

  10. brad smith said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 9:39 pm

    Pat White was not invited to the Combine–seriously? The guy’s got nfl wheels.

  11. brad smith said:

    February 11th, 2009 at 9:40 pm

    liar.

  12. Parlin Hall said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 2:40 am

    Nice write-up, TTR. Are the totals for 3-star players available (second sentence after the first picture)?

  13. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:01 am

    Did White end up invited? He wasn’t on the 1st list I had (it takes a while to work through the data).

    Yes, it’s a game of attrition. One of the best examples of the impact of raw numbers is the comparison of UT’s ‘04-’05 combined class to TAMU’s. In those two classes, UT signed (1) 5-star, (17) 4-stars, (14) 3-stars and (2) 2-stars. TAMU signed (1) 5-star, (16) 4-star, (20) 3-stars, and (15) 2-stars. A cursory glance reveals Texas’ recruits were rated higher on average, which gave falso comfort to Longhorn fans. A closer look reveals TAMU basically signed classes like Texas’ plus and extra (6) 3-stars and (13) extra 2-stars. Basically, they had 19 extra bodies to go thru in search of talent. They would be expected to get about two elite players from that extra score of players, and they did- Babalola and Brantley, both 2-star recruits.

    Our small ‘04 and ‘05 classes, as CTJ notes, set us back.

  14. Soldier of Orange said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:25 am

    According to numerous sources, Otis Sistrunk attended the University of Mars.

  15. Dan Akroyd said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:52 am

    CTJ,

    Any true gentleman would have directly addressed the person whom he referenced and included a saluatation. I would recommend “Jane, you ignorant slut.”

  16. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:54 am

    Parlin, my slip. In 2004, Rivals had 606 rated as 3-stars.

  17. he hate me said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 5:26 am

    That ratin bull be all well an good an all, but u got anythin on the bling a name change gonna bring to a man?

  18. Callkevin said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 6:17 am

    TTR, it does appear that White ended up invited, which seems reasonable.

  19. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 6:33 am

    Thanks. The first list I had, from January, was an incomplete estimate by unofficial sources. I then checked it against the 1st official list, which had Jordan Shipley, but not Pat White. I haven’t updated my spreadsheet yet, but I will. From past experience, there are probably just a handful of changes.

    A comment about why some [positions are scouted better than others out of HS- I think the most reasonable conclusion is that the skills required to play RB or DL in HS, college and the NFL are very similar. The skills required to play QB or WR in HS, college, and the NFL vary significantly. That’s probably more obvious for QB than WR, so there may be something else going on. Looking at a lot of the non-ranked recruits that become NFL draft prospects, you see a lot of guys who were goo (not great) RBs or DBs in HS, went to very small college programs (grades may have kept them from the big schools in some cases) typically in the southern US, switched to WR and became NFL prospects.

    For RBs, recruit ranking is pretty close to destiny. A lot of 2-star and 3-star RBs would be well served by questioning if they are playing the right position. Obviously, Ogbannaya is the exception that proves the rule.

  20. Callkevin said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 6:41 am

    I like Ogbannaya as much as the next guy, but if he’s an NFL TB I’ll be more stunned than I was when Selvin, Foster, and Nathan Jones made rosters/practice squads. FB, maybe.

  21. SlickStreet said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 6:48 am

    TTR, good research and I always enjoy reading (as well as writing, myself) this kind of stuff. On the per player average, true ’nuff that if a&m signs about the same number of higher rated kids in a period (which it did), then all the extra bodies they signed in that time frame will pay off.

    OTOH, over the course of years, since ’ships are to be the same for every school, essentially, the per player average is the crux, IMO.

  22. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 7:10 am

    I think that over the last five years, OU has signed an average of three more players than us, and TAMU has signed an average of five more. Some of it is due to Jucos (2 years instead of 4), and some just increased attrition (TAMU has had two coaching changes, which brings attrition). Attrition can help a program, as CTJ noted. It’s important that the guys leaving have their grades in order, though, to avoid APR penalties.

  23. PatronSaint said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 7:27 am

    Seems to me that you are making the assumption that having a big-name college uniform on doesn’t influence the decision of someone to invite you to the combine.

  24. bateshorn said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 7:36 am

    I think the other difference is, Mack tends to graduate his non contributors, rather than shoving them out of the system. IMO, that’s part of his “family” atmosphere. I see CTJ’s point and I think it probably has some applicability (see Payne, Phillip and Webber, Montrae).

    It’s sort of catch-22: Do you want to be “We’re Texas” meaning we actually aspire to be more than just winning, and keep the non contributers here and graduate them with a degree they can use after their football playing days are over; or do we push the non contributers out the door, focus on only those players who help to win on the field, the rest be damned?

  25. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 7:37 am

    Yeah, that’s a weakness in this. The Combine rules say that it doesn’t matter where a guy played, but I think it does to some extent. Let’s just all agree that the Combine cares less than other ratings sources. Note that Aaron Harris, a high profile Texas starter, didn’t get invited. Neither did Lyle Sendlein, a multi-year starter at Texas who even made it as a starter in the NFL.

    When the NFL scouts need 15 more names for the Combine, I think they look at the big programs to fill up, not the D-2 programs.

  26. Big Satan said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 8:11 am

    On the surface, this is a very interesting post. But then I realized it was nothing more but propoganda designed to make me feel warm and fuzzy about signing Brock Fitzhenry. A pox on your house, sir.

  27. hot stove steve said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 9:26 am

    TTR – Instead of judging recruit rankings by NFL combine invites (300+), you should judge it by actual drafting into the NFL (230+). that gives you the real pass/fail standard as to whether someone’s skills are valued by the league.

  28. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 9:57 am

    That’s a great point. I have most of the data already, and can do it. The main reason I focus on the Combine is that I’m intrigued by the question, “Did this player do enough in college to get the NFL interested?”. After the Combine, guys can drop off due to measurables, rather than performance (which presumably got them invited in the 1st place).

  29. CloseToJumping said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 10:04 am

    CallKevin–

    I posted this on here during the season when Scipio was mocking poor Chris Ogbannaya and wringing his hands over McCoy and Shipley going pro — Ogbannaya should not be a surprising late round pick. He has NFL size, decent speed, he can and will take on blocks, he’s very intelligent, and he catches well out of the backfield. Is he a starter? Probably not. Is he a 1st down back? No. Can he be an NFL contributor for a number of years and worthy of a late pick? Yes, if for no other reason than he’ll learn faster than others and outwork his peers.

  30. Real McCoy said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 10:40 am

    Excellent read and thank you for the digging.

    I would beg to differ on a few points.

    1. The premise of the combine as an indicator of the “elite players” is really not right. From your example, Stephen McGee would be elite and Pat White not. I would think all American listings would be a better indicator of elite players.

    2. Much of the reason that combines tie to star rankings is they measure the same thing. Speed, quickness etc. The combine really does not care too much about your college success.

  31. Big Satan said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 11:01 am

    He’s not using it to determine elite players. He’s using it as a benchmark comparison in evaluating recruiting site rankings.

  32. SlickStreet said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 11:13 am

    CTJ–I kinda think higher of Chris O’ than some do as well.

  33. Drunken Rooster said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 11:46 am

    Good read. Just what I thought- ou sucks.

  34. Horncasting said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 11:49 am

    “A cursory glance reveals Texas’ recruits were rated higher on average, which gave falso comfort to Longhorn fans. A closer look reveals TAMU basically signed classes like Texas’ plus and extra (6) 3-stars and (13) extra 2-stars. Basically, they had 19 extra bodies to go thru in search of talent. ”

    But the flip side of this argument is that they had 19 less scholarships to give to higher-rated, higher chance of success players down the road. One of the things that ultimately lead to the current generation of the cupboard is bare.

  35. Art Vandelay said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    No Quan? I sign him in a heartbeat if he doesn’t get drafted.

  36. Bob in Houston said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 2:42 pm

    Quan is 26… I imagine his age works against him as a prospect.

  37. California Horn said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 2:47 pm

    Terrific post, TTR. The perfect offseason college football read.

    “Yes, it’s a game of attrition. One of the best examples of the impact of raw numbers is the comparison of UT’s ‘04-’05 combined class to TAMU’s. In those two classes, UT signed (1) 5-star, (17) 4-stars, (14) 3-stars and (2) 2-stars. TAMU signed (1) 5-star, (16) 4-star, (20) 3-stars, and (15) 2-stars. A cursory glance reveals Texas’ recruits were rated higher on average, which gave falso comfort to Longhorn fans. A closer look reveals TAMU basically signed classes like Texas’ plus and extra (6) 3-stars and (13) extra 2-stars. Basically, they had 19 extra bodies to go thru in search of talent. They would be expected to get about two elite players from that extra score of players, and they did- Babalola and Brantley, both 2-star recruits.”

    It seems to me that to know how much high attrition teams benefit, if at all, from signing higher numbers, you’d have to look on a case by case basis to see what the reason for attrition was.

    Sometimes it’s because dead roster weight is cleared out in favor of new blood, which is positive for the program’s talent level. Sometimes it’s because players who would be contributors on the field flunk out, get arrested, leave early for the NFL, die, get injured, transfer because of a coaching change, etc., which is negative for the program’s talent level.

  38. Hines Ward said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 3:15 pm

    Prospect Schmospect.

  39. Austintacious 'Horn said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:00 pm

    BTW…the approximate odds for any player from High School level to make it into the NFL is approximately:

    1/17,000

  40. BRAGGonUT said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:23 pm

    Tremendous as always, TTR.

  41. CrazyJoeDavola said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:53 pm

    Chris O also has the benefit of not having been run into the ground, like a lot of other running backs.

  42. n-ea said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 4:58 pm

    Is there any way to deduce the approximate total # of 1 star in a given year?

  43. Big Satan said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    I was going to go with…8720…to 1.

  44. Hey said:

    February 12th, 2009 at 6:50 pm

    SMQ had a similar article a few years ago.

    http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/2008/4/28/13464/0601

  45. Bateshorn said:

    February 13th, 2009 at 7:06 am

    I would think that Chris O and Quan are both nfl worthy, if for no other reason, they are physical, smart, they can catch, and most importantly, they can contribute significantly on special teams

  46. BoilerHorn said:

    February 13th, 2009 at 7:23 am

    Well done, TTR.

  47. Wes Welker said:

    February 13th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

    Nice read, I’m just glad I didn’t read this a couple years ago.

    I might have spent the last week on an Oil Rig outside of OKC, instead of in Hawaii at the Pro-Bowl.

    - Cheers Wes

  48. honkskillet said:

    February 14th, 2009 at 5:09 pm

    This is good stuff. You are right, though. This does need pictures… bar graphs! Also, would be very interested to see on a cumulative basis which programs (with stable coaching) have done most under and out performed their recruits’ star rankings (based on your formula). This would tell us both which programs are fulfilling their promises to their players (by putting them into the combine) and to their fans (by turning ranked recruits into wins on the field).

    Another good, maybe even better metric than combine invites would be NFL draft rank. It would give you different information … info that would be more useful for HS players considering which school to go to. To be simple, a the first player drafted overall could be given a grad of 1 and that last player a grade of zero (or 1/total # of players drafted if you want to be nice) and linearly extrapolate draftee grades in between. (Or your could take the max guaranteed salary per given draft year a demoninator…draftees salary as the numerator. but this data might be hard to come by.) This would tell you how proficient a university is at giving its recruits meaningful college careers. You could even break this up by star ranking. Maybe it turns out the best place a 3 star recruit can go is tulsa or marshall (just pull those names out of thin air)?

  49. Ag_in_TX said:

    February 16th, 2009 at 7:16 am

    TTR – great stats work as always, It’s interesting to see that the numbers worked out again this year as they have in past.

    Two aspects of your write-up we’ve never discussed (that I can recall):

    1. The difficulty of projecting players – College coaches have told me that WR and DB are the two hardest things for them to project. That’s why, if they have a choice, they’ll take as many of those guys as they can, invite a ton of walk-ons and hope a few stick. Same with QB’s out of high school – most of them go into the WR/DB mix since they were likely a QB because they were the best athlete at their high school (see John Chiles for example #1).

    2. Fascinating pick-up that the number of guys going to the Combine from The Republic is almost constant each year. There has to be something to that. I wonder how that % of players compares to other states?

  50. Lowery said:

    February 16th, 2009 at 11:53 am

    Fascinating post. Thank you.

  51. TaylorTRoom said:

    February 16th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

    Last 10 years, 393 players were drafted that weren’t invited to the Combine (15%): LINK

  52. The Tortilla Retort » Blog Archive » NFL Draft Thoughts - Big 12 said:

    February 21st, 2009 at 11:25 am

    [...] Jason Smith, LT, Baylor – I am still obligated to pay homage here to HenryJames at the Barking Carnival.  I hadn’t really paid much attention to Smith early in his career until Mr. James made the [...]

  53. DBH said:

    February 21st, 2009 at 1:48 pm

    “INDIANAPOLIS (AP)—Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree has a stress fracture in his foot that will sideline him from this weekend’s workouts at the NFL scouting combine.”

  54. DBH said:

    February 22nd, 2009 at 8:33 am

    ESPN is reporting that Jeremy Macklin injured himself (leg) during a drill at the combine.

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  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   42 minutes ago

    Nordberg,

    Ironic indeed……teachable moment, I guess….

    NY Horn,

    I hope your drunk, because Izzo ain’t coming to Texas……Why don’t we just get Coach K. I mean Coach G came from Duke, they have to be dying to get out of Durham….

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   46 minutes ago

    Egg, that’s fine, but at what point do you blame Barnes? Seriously, man. You’ve thrown players under the bus left and right, but at a certain point, doesn’t the buck stop somewhere. I know you’re more of an NBA guy so it begins and ends with players there, but we need fucking

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   46 minutes ago

    Egg, that’s fine, but at what point do you blame Barnes? Seriously, man. You’ve thrown players under the bus left and right, but at a certain point, doesn’t the buck stop somewhere. I know you’re more of an NBA guy so it begins and ends with players there, but we need fucking

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   48 minutes ago

    Trips,

    I hear ya. I’m frustrated as well. I guess I just don’t prescribe to such a black and white characterization of the situation. I do know that no matter what happened in the huddle, JCB made a dumb play. If Rick didn’t explain or remind him of the situation, then I

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   55 minutes ago

    Pat, know I don’t, but I’ve had coaches draw up plays to free up the best foul shooter and then tell that guy they’d put their foot up his ass if they passed the ball. It’s funny, but as a fans of football we nitpick blitz pickup and shit like that. Shit that’s

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   55 minutes ago

    Pat, you know I don’t, but I’ve had coaches draw up plays to free up the best foul shooter and then tell that guy they’d put their foot up his ass if they passed the ball. It’s funny, but as a fans of football we nitpick blitz pickup and shit like that. Shit

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   55 minutes ago

    Pat, you know I don’t, but I’ve had coaches draw up plays to free up the best foul shooter and then tell that guy they’d put their foot up his ass if they passed the ball. It’s funny, but as fans of football we nitpick blitz pickup and shit like that. Shit that’s

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   58 minutes ago

    Shitty season…..Rick needs to hire some offensive help and someone needs to say it to him. Deloss?

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour ago

    Trips,

    Do you know that he didn’t? JCB has made bad decision all season, why would this be any different. Barnes coached a shitastic game, but on the teams I was the best FT shooter, I never game up the ball unless it was an uncontested layup…..It’s not hard and it doesn’t take a

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour ago

    mcpayne, yes, you don’t leave that shit to chance. You don’t let your guys break the huddle or dead ball not knowing precisely what’s expected from them. Barnes doesn’t get 2 mil for coaching PE where he’s hoping the right guy gets fouled.

  • uthookem commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 2 minutes ago

    mpayne, I’d agree with you if J’Covan had been playing all season and had been in situations to make that decision. Like, you know, against Baylor, when he played all of 3 fucking minutes thanks to rick.

    So yes, it is rick’s fault.

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 2 minutes ago

    With 15 seconds left, out of a dead ball, most coaches would make it perfectly clear who they wanted to be fouled.

  • uthookem commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 5 minutes ago

    Stupid decisions by Brown are one of the reasons he sat on the bench for most of the season…lack of coaching maybe, or just a lack of basketball IQ?

    Oh well, if Brown doesn’t go off in the 2nd half, we aren’t even playing in OT. Too bad he didn’t get much of a chance

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 6 minutes ago

    Pat, if you were making 2 million a year, would you leave that up to chance?

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 6 minutes ago

    Actually, if your a PG and the best FT shooter on the team and played basketball your entire life, you’d pretty much know not to give up the ball if you had any brains…..Such a dumb play…..

  • D W commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    Oh, and a stupid decision by Brown in giving up the ball to Johnson.

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    Be nice if we’d coached our 90 percent foul shooter not to give the ball up.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    Ransom,

    1 for 2, that was not shitty defense……

  • Mister Mike commented on the blog post State of the Union – NU Basketball, Part 1 (or Why We Are Where We Are)   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    Well if you had read it all the way, you would’ve noticed this little tidbit:

    In the second part I’ll do my best to give an outline of what exactly is wrong with the program, what we can do to fix it, and then what will probably happen TO fix it.

    So to answer your question:

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • uthookem commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    The line kills us, as it should have.

    Fuck Rick Barnes, as this was the worst coaching I have seen in all my years of watching UT sports.

    This saved us from Kentucky, but I feel bad for Damo, he was a hell of a Longhorn.

    Hook ‘em!

    And FUCK RICK BARNES!

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    Feel bad for Damion…..Dexter and Mason, not so much….

  • D W commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 8 minutes ago

    So the season ends with missed free throws and shitty defense by Bradley. Pretty fitting.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 9 minutes ago

    Yup……We knew that FTs would get us….

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 10 minutes ago

    F’n Gary’s been awful tonight….

  • uthookem commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 10 minutes ago

    GJ at the line…big heart needed!

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 11 minutes ago

    Why does Brown give it up there?

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 11 minutes ago

    Bilas explaining why we’re not a smart team…Oh good, I want Gary at the line…

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 11 minutes ago

    The good news is that now I know to fill out the census, so i’m not going to jail…not for that anyway.

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 13 minutes ago

    Holy shit

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest Open thread   1 hour, 13 minutes ago

    F’n A…..WTF….