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1. Scipio's Thesaurus said:

   January 29th, 2009 at 10:19 pm

   Milieu? Really?

2. Blonde Standing Behind GSP said:

   January 29th, 2009 at 11:10 pm

   I’ve got a robust.

3. Vasherized said:

   January 30th, 2009 at 7:29 am

   I had no idea this was going down tomorrow. Thanks for the reminder.

   My poorly researched and highly subjective theory is that the more hype these epic matchups get the higher the odds they end early by knockout or submission.

   Both guys are so good at what they do that it only takes the slightest defensive miscue from either fighter for the match to end quickly and decisively.

   I like Penn in a 2nd round upset by knockout to GSP’s said suspect chin.

   I just wish they’d wear ninja outfits.

4. Daniel said:

   January 30th, 2009 at 12:41 pm

   I can’t remember which one of them said it but one guy said he is looking “to kill the other”

5. Scipio Tex said:

   January 30th, 2009 at 3:28 pm

   Vasherized:

   That’s what makes this fight so exciting. Both guys have one blow knockout power, they’re both great at submissions (GSP just got his black belt in BJJ) and either one has the capacity for an improbable rally when it looks like they’re beat.

   Ninja outfits- yes. Or plate mail.

   Daniel:

   BJ Penn is the guy that said that. Then he said,”Seriously. Like, I mean it.” Which means he doesn’t, but understands that fights like this need that sort of hype for a certain segment of fans.

6. TKO said:

   January 30th, 2009 at 7:59 pm

   Excellent piece, and I do appreciate that at least a couple of people here recognize the significance of this fight.

   One bone to pick, though: BJ Penn is undoubtedly the better boxer, but I’m not sure where the notion comes from that St. Pierre has a questionable chin (OK, normal chin), while BJ has a granite jaw. I’ve heard this same thing from others, including Matt Hughes, who has fought them both multiple times. Hughes, of course, knocked out Penn and submitted St. Pierre, so I find his assessment curious.

   Bottom line, both fighters have lost by TKO just once, so neither has a history of getting rocked. In fact, other than the first Matt Sera fight, I don’t remember GSP ever being in serious trouble on his feet. They’ve fought virtually identical competition, so opponent strength and style variance aren’t at issue.

   On the ground, the fight’s a wash; they’re two of the best in the world in their ground game, though I think St. Pierre is more active and better at striking on the mat. He’s a bigger man than Penn and he’s a superior wrestler, so he’ll be looking to maul BJ on the ground and mess him up when they’re rolling, and of course he’s got a world-class engine. For all the talk about BJ’s tenacity and ferocity, what strikes me about him is how relaxed he is on the ground, both in his guard and in a mount; it’s a beautiful thing to watch, actually. He’s just a great, economical fighter. Oh, and the short piece on the video about Penn’s flexibility is spot on. He’s freakishly flexible. Short story, they’re both superb grapplers and ground technicians. For anyone who appreciates good ground work, Saturday’s fight could well produce art.

   Calling this fight is tough; you might as well toss a coin. If I had to bet, I think it goes the distance and GSP wins the decision.

   As for women who can tolerate MMA, my first wife was, and is, a huge boxing fan, and my daughter was raised going to the gym with me from the age of four or so. She grew up on a steady diet of classic fight tapes and learning how to wrap hands. She pays a lot more attention to the fight game than I do now, though she’s pretty much just into the UFC. By the way, for those who don’t know, there’s a lot of stellar MMA and other fighting arts outside of the UFC (and outside of the States, for that matter).

   Anyway, ought to be a special bout. By the way, Scipio, any prediction? And are you planning an analysis after the fight?

7. Scipio Tex said:

   January 31st, 2009 at 1:23 am

   TKO:

   Thanks for the thoughtful reply.

   I think my iron jaw perception comes from Penn’s ability to eat big shots with little apparent effect (Lyoto Machida is the only guy that has ever hurt him in a fight standing and he was 40 pounds heavier – open weight division fight in Japan).

   Probably also the fact that he routinely spars heavyweights without head gear.

   In the Hughes fight, Penn broke a rib in a scramble and the stoppage came when BJ found himself in a side control crucifix. It wasn’t a standing exchange. Penn was eating punch after punch, so McCarthy called it when it was clear that BJ couldn’t reverse.

   GSP got knocked out by Matt Serra standing with strikes. Serra is a second tier fighter and a third rate striker. That KO raised a lot of eyebrows in the MMA world.

   If I had to call the fight, I’d go with GSP by decision. That’s the “safe” bet. GSP should be able to taken BJ down at will and once he does, he’s not going to get swept and reversed. At least, I don’t think so.

   Penn’s ability to fight elite at 170 is also in doubt. I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Penn won – there is no result that isn’t positive for MMA as long as it’s an entertaining war. I just want a great fight.

   I will definitely do a post-fight wrap.

8. TKO said:

   January 31st, 2009 at 8:38 am

   Scipio

   All good observations. A couple of quick points:

   Penn was close to 185 when he fought Machida in 2005. He had three or four fights at a bodyweight between 175 and 185 at around this time (including a couple of bouts in Hawaii with two of the lesser-known Gracie clan), so he gave up closer to twenty pounds than forty to Machida. Not to minimize a twenty pound differential to a fighter the caliber of Lyoto Machida, but giving up forty is astronomical. And you’re right that Machida’s the only one who’s punished Penn standing up, though remarkably the fight went to a decision. Penn is without question a genuine tough guy.

   I personally think Serra is a respectable BJJ practitioner, but calling him a third-rate striker is charitable. His one and only knockout was of St. Pierre. Given that this is also St. Pierre’s only defeat by TKO, I suspect it was an anomaly rather than any evidence of vulnerability. I haven’t seen this fight, but my guess is it’s just a case of GSP getting caught. Good fighters, even great ones, get caught and dropped at times in their careers, often by markedly inferior opponents. Think Oliver McCall.

   Finally, no one, at least no one who understands fights, would be shocked if either fighter won the bout. Neither would they be shocked if it ended early or late, by knockout, submission or decision. This is a great fight precisely because it’s a match between two great fighters who can change things in a big way in a hurry. I expect nothing less than an entertaining war.

   Enjoy the bout, and I look forward to your post-fight commentary.

9. Scipio Tex said:

   January 31st, 2009 at 11:21 am

   TKO:

   You’re right. Penn was 185 in that fight. And fat. Machida actually weighed in at 215 pre-fight. So 30 pounds.

10. TKO said:

    January 31st, 2009 at 5:43 pm

    Scipio:

    Not that it matters, but where on earth did you find weigh-in stats for Hero’s 1? I took a pretty thorough look around after reading your last post and couldn’t find official weights for the Machida-Penn bout anywhere.

    I remember Penn’s weight being around 185 for this particular fight because I was following him pretty closely then and thought he was fighting well over his optimal weight, but Machida was a relative unknown (at least to me) at that time. I’m just curious where you found such an obscure stat.

11. TKO said:

    January 31st, 2009 at 9:48 pm

    Fight just finished. Post-fight analysis should be pretty simple: this was a total beatdown. Every single facet, every single moment of the fight was dominated by GSP.

12. Wulaw Horn said:

    February 1st, 2009 at 11:10 am

    What, no recap on a fight that I didn’t watch, by two guys I’ve never heard of so that I can know who won without logging on to espn b/c I’m trying to avoid finding out the results of Nadal/Federer until the replay at 2:00 CST?

13. Trips Right said:

    February 1st, 2009 at 11:36 am

    Did Royce Gracie tea bag anyone into submission?

14. Spider said:

    February 2nd, 2009 at 1:57 pm

    Whoa, I’m really sorry I missed that fight. Penn is a real fuckstick who needs to be hurt. fortunately, his profession makes it legal.

15. Scipio Tex said:

    February 2nd, 2009 at 8:19 pm

    Karma is a little bitch, isn’t it Spidey?

    BJ’s brother threw in the towel – which was a good call. BJ could have really been hurt.

16. TKO said:

    February 4th, 2009 at 1:04 am

    Spider:

    Thanks for posting the video. I was smiling all the way through that 2:54. As much as I respect Penn’s skill, he’s always had a big mouth and he got what he deserved.

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    June 9th, 2009 at 10:20 pm

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