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Preview: Texas at Oklahoma

Posted by Trips Right on January 12th, 2009 under Basketball

The Texas Longhorns take their enigmatic selves on the road tonight to face possibly the toughest opponent on the schedule in one of the most hostile places on the planet if you’re a Longhorn. The 8 central tip would be the stiffest of tests for any Longhorn team, but the challenge is even tougher considering the Longhorns still haven’t found a true identity offensively nearly halfway through the season.

Don’t get me wrong, Texas is just as talented 1-5 as Oklahoma, and has a much deeper bench than that of the Sooners, but this Oklahoma Sooner squad knows where its bread is buttered and I’m not sure you can say the same for the Longhorns at this point. Still, there are some matchups that benefit the Horns and there are some answers defensively for the Sooner’s dynamic inside/outside tandem of Warren and Griffin. The wildcard, as always, is guard play. Will we get any? We’ll see. On to the personnel…

The Backcourt
The Sooners predominantly run a 3 guard attack under Capel, and they do a good job of spreading the floor which allows Blake Griffin to go to work down low. Their stud in the backcourt is 6-4 combo-guard Willie Warren. Warren struggled finding his role early in the year, specifically with how that role relates to Griffin, but those struggles have fallen by the wayside in the last month or so evidenced by two 30+ point explosions vs. Arkasas and Rice. Against Arkansas, Warren almost single handedly shot the Sooners back into the game after trailing by as much as 22 points, going a ridiculous 7-11 from deep. His ability to shoot the ball from behind the arc is just one facet of his game, but even more impressive is his knack for getting to the rim and finishing. Warren is shooting over 50% from the field on the year, which is outstanding for someone who’s had nearly 80 3-point attempts. Warren is super quick and has a very strong upper body that allows him to absorb contact and still finish. Texas has to keep him from going nuts.

In the backcourt, Warren is flanked by assist man Arthur Johnson and the streaky shooting wing 6-6 junior Tony Crocker. Crocker shoots 33% from deep but he can be deadly when he’s in a groove. Austin Johnson, the third guard, shares the ball handling duties with Warren. Austin’s strength is getting other people involved and when those other people include Warren and Griffin, that’s not a bad strategy. Johnson still struggles to shoot the ball consistently especially from deep as he’s averaging just 28% on the year. This tandem’s mediocre ability to shoot the basketball provides a window of opportunity for enterprising defensive teams and a source of help to the offensive threats Griffin and Warren.

The Frontcourt
Blake Griffin is the Sooner’s uber-talented stud. He’s a surefire lottery pick and may be the best player in the college game today. His talents literally allow him to be a sort of a “point forward” on the court because he handles the ball and can pass it like a guard can. Put a smaller player on him, and he’ll annihilate you on the block and on the glass. Double him with anything predictable, and he’ll find his brother Taylor Griffin for a dunk because he’s a terrific interior passer. Double him with a guard and he’ll either split it with his strength, or he’ll find an open shooter. His one weakness offensively is that he sometimes dominates the basketball which gets the other players out of sync. Namely Warren. Defensively, Griffin takes possessions off and can be out of position at times.

The other frontcourt player is the aforementioned twin Taylor Griffin. He’s a high basketball guy that is not nearly as talented as his brother but still pretty athletically gifted nonetheless. Taylor Griffin does a great job working with Blake and always seems to know where to be on the floor when Blake is attacking. Go figure. With little depth backing these two up, the Griffin brothers tend to rest on the defensive end and this can be exploited.

The Bench
Cade Davis comes in to give them perimeter shooting punch and Omar Leary is a backup point guard that can be pressured into turnovers. Neither guard particularly well.

Frontcourt depth is virtually non-existent. And this will go hand in hand with one of our keys. Ryan Wright gives the Sooner five 6-9 fouls off the bench, and really nothing more.

Texas Keys to the Game

Tempo.
Let’s just ink this key in to the previews for every game, the rest of the season. It’s a code word for guard play. But in this game tempo will be especially important. The Sooners biggest strength is their competitive advantage over the Horns generating offense in a half court setting. They have Griffin and Warren to manufacture points if this becomes a half court street fight. Texas has sets and shit. The Sooner’s weakness is depth. Their depth is actually embarrassing. Texas has depth in spades. We go 5 deep in the frontcourt and 5 deep in the backcourt with interchangeable parts. Texas must play fast when the opportunity presents and try to get as many possessions as possible to either tire out the Sooners or get them in foul trouble.

Offensively we can accomplish this by getting out and running on the primary break, and then running quick sets to find open shots in our secondary break. Defensively, I would pressure and trap fullcourt, and then game Griffin with some quick trapping and slow trapping in halfcourt. But Texas must play fast for good portions of this game to have the best chance at a win.

Play two different games.
Texas can put pressure on Oklahoma and at the same time play to its own strengths by playing two personnel groupings. What I mean by that is when Texas wants to pound with Dexter in the 4 out, they would be well served to play a personnel group of Atchley, Mason, Abrams, and James. Offensively, Texas would be able to spread the floor with 4 legitimate shooters and pound Dexter who would probably be guarded by Taylor Griffin so as not to expose Blake to foul trouble. This group would also force Blake out to the perimeter where he can be prone to pick up cheap fouls heding ball screens and defending dribble penetration. On defense, Texas could stay in its base M2M. Texas would have to play slower, but Dex has to be a part of this ball game, and the change in tempo and style might be a source of confusion for OU.

The second group would be my athlete, pressure, and get out and run group. I’d go with Johnson, Abrams, Mason, Ward/Balbay, and James. This would consist of full court pressure M2M, some token trapping, and then some quick trapping as a change up. In the halfcourt, Texas would have to switch and rotate like their hair was on fire to make up for the mismatch inside presented by Griffin. A press and drop back into an active zone would not be out of the question, and would serve to hide the glaring mismatch in the paint for stretches at a time. It’s also one more thing for the freshman Warren to think about.

Ring the Bell.
I had a coach that used to tell us at some point in every game to, “Do the things that it takes to win basketball games.” Yeah. Well. Of course. But looking back, I understand what he meant. You sometimes get caught up in the minutiae of bumping the flex cut, switch the scissor screen, hedge the two guard but trap the one, etc. and so forth. The fact of the matter is, when you shoot the basketball or ring the bell, you can cover up a lot of ills. If Texas can simply hit shots they’re capable of hitting, a lot of everything else takes care of itself. And the Sooners aren’t nearly the world beaters on defense that they were under Sampson. Capel’s group will make shots available, layups and open 3’s alike, and Texas has to hit them or it will be a long night.

Guarding Griffin and Warren.
First off, these two are going to score. It’s how they score that’s key. What we don’t want from Griffin are easy drop step dunks and put backs off misses. If he want’s to take a big off the dribble from 15 ft fine. Turn around jumper from 10 fine. Texas must do a good job taking Blake out of his comfort zone with a variety of doubles quick and slow. From a variety of angles, guards and forwards. If he catches is on the block, coordinate a double team from the other block that has you small forward anticipate the interior pass to Taylor, your guard staying on Warren, leaving Crocker and Johnson to catch and generate offense.

On Warren, you can’t give up open catch and shoots or drives to the goal that get your bigs in foul trouble. Close out aggressively to his shot and then breakdown and sell out on his penetration forcing a midrange game. Warren doesn’t look to drop dimes, so if bigs shouldn’t be afraid to step in to cut off drives as long as the other forwards mind the weakside glass.

Just don’t let these guys sleep walk to their season averages. Make them show you they’re lottery picks by making NBA caliber moves.

For more thoughts on this rivalry game check out The General’s tremendous quick preview.

Either way it’ll be a tremendous test. We failed the one in Fayetteville, here’s our opportunity for redemption.

Thoughts?

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27 Responses

  1. The General said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 8:47 am

    And that’s what a real preview looks like . . .

    I would love to see the two personnel groupings based on tempo that you have.

    Hopefully, AJ hits a couple early to break his little slump.

  2. Bob in Houston said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 9:08 am

    As far as shooting percentage goes, back when I was better at avoiding work, I did the research and found that RB’s Texas teams almost always win when they shoot 45 percent.

    I think that number still stands up.

  3. Austin Johnson said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 9:11 am

    Who’s Arthur Johnson?

  4. bighornfan32 said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 9:24 am

    “What I mean by that is when Texas wants to pound with Dexter in the 4 out, they would be well served to play a personnel group of Atchley, Mason, Abrams, and James. Offensively, Texas would be able to spread the floor with 4 legitimate shooters and pound Dexter who would probably be guarded by Taylor Griffin so as not to expose Blake to foul trouble.”

    Wait, Mason is a shooter?

  5. Kafka said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 9:53 am

    Trips:

    Great writeup (as usual). Many thanks for doing this research/writing, it really makes the game easier to understand as it unfolds.

    The horns would do well to avoid playing 3 guards at the same time until some guard other than Abrams can hit a shot that is not a layup. The strength of the horns is, by far, on the front line, so play 3 big guys all the time. The identity of the horns on offense is clear: the only horns who can get their own shots are big men. If you pass the ball to Damion, Dex, or Gary, they can all get their own shot. Connor, Abrams, and the PGs all have to have plays run for them to get a shot. None of the PGs can shoot outside reliably.

    Playing uptempo is probably not going to get Blake Griffin in foul trouble or wear him out (if he does not hustle down on D). The horns don’t handle the ball that well in the open court (especially the big guys) so a lot of fast breaking probably generates a lot of turnovers. In any event such a basic change to the horns’ offensive approach is probably best not done for the first time against an elite opponent. What might work pretty well every now and then is a one man break with Abrams. He dribbles and shoots well so it seems like a good risk.

    Going after Blake when he is on D will get him in trouble. Blake probably guards Dex. If the horns will at least pretend to try to get the ball to Dex on every possession then Blake will have to wrestle with Dex for position every time down the court. That will wear anybody out, even big Blake. It may even draw some fouls if Blake gets too aggressive in trying to deny Dex position.

    Get the ball to Dex and see if he can get a couple 1st half fouls on Blake. Do the same with Gary if he is guarded by Blake. Dex should not forget to sometimes fake his explode to the middle move and drop step instead. Dex should go up strong and try to power dunk everything.

    If that does not work, have Blake’s man set picks for Abrams way outside to make Blake run and get him out of defensive rebounding position (and probably create some easy shots for Abrams if Blake does not hustle on D).

    It should be easy for the horns to make Blake work on D. The horns have 4 big guys (Damion, Gary, Dex, and Connor) who can put the ball in the bucket. This is a good game to get the ball to them and make the Griffins defend.

    The horns are not 5 deep at guard. They are 3 deep at point guard and 1 deep at shooting guard (since Abrams plays 40 minutes). On the front line the horns have 4 good players. This is not a good game for Chapman and Hill to play in unless it is to give fouls (if somebody on OU is struggling at the line) or the horns’ front line gets in deep foul trouble.

    The hornshave to double Blake immediately when he gets the ball. Abrams can’t be one of the guys who doubles. Mason, Ward, and Balbay all are quick and gritty guys who will stick their nose in there and get close enough to Blake to make it very difficult for Blake to split the double team (plus the horns have 15 fouls to give at PG). If the PGs can get in good position and Blake tries to split the double team anyway, Blake runs a big risk of picking up an offensive foul (it is so obvious when a big man bulls over a little man).

    This is a good game to attack the rim. One way to efficiently use the horns’ poor shooting PGs on O is for Abrams to set a back pick at the top of the circle for Mason or Ward. This enables Mason or Ward to easily get into the paint (since there is no way Abrams’ defender will hedge the screen).

    An OU big man (probably Blake) has to help out or the horns’ PG gets a layup or dunk. If Blakes does help out, Mason or Ward just dish to the open horns’ big man (who Blake left) and attack the rim.

  6. Kafka said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 10:07 am

    It might be a good experiment for Abrams to guard Warren. Abrams is quick enough that he can stay with Warren outside and discourage the 3 point shot. Abrams is also smart enough to avoid stupid fouls.

    When Warren drives by Abrams, the horns’ PG (Mason, Ward, or Balbay) will be available to help out on Warren. The horns’ PG would also be available to help out on Blake.

    Abrams is not useful as a help defender.

  7. jc25 said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 10:31 am

    Willie Warren played my alma mater, Dulles, for the State Championship last year. He kind of dicked around for the entire game, and my Vikings stuck around and made a game of it. Then with about 3 minutes ago, Warren decided to do something about it, and he was clearly a man amongst boys. Needless to say, Crowley pulled away easily. Sometimes life is just unfair.

  8. The General said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 11:26 am

    Kafka,

    Good stuff, but if Blake Griffin guards D Pitt, Capel needs to turn in his coaches association card. He is basically making it a coin flip whether BG gets in foul trouble or not.

  9. Bartoncreek said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 11:40 am

    I’m afraid this a battle of two of the most overrated teams in the country. We have gone completely backwards lately. Just played like complete garbage in 5 of our last 6. I’ve only seen OU play twice and honestly they are KSU last year but without an early 2nd rounder to go next to Beasley/Griffin.

    The only way we can become a legit top 10 team is for Connor to start averaging around 14 per. He is our only other legitimate shooter. Nothing is going to change that fact. We have to make teams extend on more than just AJ if we want James to be able to slash and Dex to be able to post.

    The only time we are a remotely good offense as a whole is when Mason is penetrating. He can at least finish. Dogus and Varez can’t yet. But, as much as I love Mason, he absolutely has to be able to start making a wide open 15 footer with consistency. Whether it’s a FT or jump shot. His shooting has gotten progressively worse year after year. Frustrating to watch, because if he had an outside shot he would go from being a great role player to being a great player.

    This team is starting to depress me, but we will win tonight. Ou is just not very good.

  10. ponderos said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 11:47 am

    I’ve only seen OU play twice and honestly they are KSU last year but without an early 2nd rounder to go next to Beasley/Griffin.

    Bartoncreek. Warren is that guy. He’s shown a helluva lot more maturity than a true freshman should. He really does remind me of dwade at times. Considering he was in high school at this time last year, he’s been phenomenal – all-conference good.

    Weird thing about this team is they kind of go as Crocker goes. Crocker shoots 6 threes, OU runs people out of the gym. Next game, he could go 0-for-10 and the Sooners will struggle, regardless of what WW and Blake do. Unfortunately, there’s not much depth at the 3. Crocker’s it.

  11. Bartoncreek said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 12:03 pm

    Point taken on Warren. He does have huge upside.

    It’s not surprising when you have a player as good as Durant, Beasley or Griffin that a team tends to stand around and watch a lot. It usually is that 3rd guy that will determine if you play well. It is kind of a given that your top 2 pick will show up. Will anyone else?

  12. ponderos said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

    Crocker is usually that third guy, bartoncreek. Also, Cade Davis off the bench is a streaky shooter and has been a factor in previous games.

  13. Bob in Houston said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

    As I posted during the Arkansas loss, Crocker got them back in the game with four straight threes. I don’t think I’d ever seen him make four threes total before that.

  14. Kafka said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

    General:
    Interesting point about Dex being a bad assignment for Blake.

    Blake does not want to guard Connor because he would have to chase Connor screening for Abrams all night. Bye-bye defensive rebounding. What would make it even more painful is that Connor is a definite threat to hit the 3 if Blake hedged the screen (and whenever he fails to hedge the screen in time, Abrams gets a good shot (win-win)).

    Blake could guard Damion or Gary but they will surely take him outside, which again hurts Blake’s opportunity for D rebounds (a very bad thing for OU) and means that he has to cover Damion and Gary in space (not a comfortable thing for big Blake).

    Covering Dex might be the least of all evils. The horns are not good at getting the ball into Dex so Blake has that going for him. Will Barnes use Dex to attack Blake systematically? Probably not.

    When the horns do get the ball to Dex, OU will double as quickly as they can so Blake would have help.

  15. Kafka said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

    I guess the obvious thing for OU D to do is to play a box and 1 (the 1 being on Abrams). A zone ought to be able to contest the Damion’s and Gary’s 15 to 18 footers and the 1 should contest Abrams’ 3’s. A zone would also be effective against Dex and would stop penetration by the PG’s, Damion, and Gary.

  16. Work said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

    Hostile, Lloyd Noble is not.

  17. The General said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:48 pm

    If’n I were Caple, I would play Taylor on Dexter and Blake on Connor, and dare Connor to shoot the ball. The only thing Connor has been a threat to do lately is bleed out.

  18. Work said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

    Capel is screwed either way re: who B. Griffin guards. If he guards Dex he is subjected to serious foul trouble. If he guards Connor (which I hope he does), he will absolutely be forced to guard and most likely get tired out.

    Look for Texas to attack attack attack Griff on defense very similar to the way they went after K. Love. Force him to sprint down the court in transition as Connor runs the pipe. Force him to hedge our Guards as Connor sprints out to the ballscreen. I remember watching K Love tug on his shorts at the 16 minute mark in the first half. If this happens, Texas squeaks by.

  19. Kafka said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 2:24 pm

    If I were Capel, I would play box and 1. This will keep Blake and Taylor in good rebounding position on D, will rest them on D, would keep their fouls down, and would still force Connor to hit 3’s.

    But if Caple chooses to put Blake on Connor, then Barnes will surely counter by having Connor repeatedly screen for Abrams. This means Blake is out of D rebounding position (huge problem for OU). It also means that Blake is going to have to run really hard to get there in time to hedge the screen or Abrams gets an open look. If Abrams gets open looks that is probably disastrous for OU.

    If Blakes aggressively hedges the screen, Connor shooting the 3 is an option but is not the only option. Connor can also slip the screen and attack the rim.

    Also, defending Dex with little big brother Taylor will elevate Dex’s confidence sky high (there is no way Taylor Griffin can guard Dex). It might also be enough incentive to actually get Barnes to concentrate on getting the ball into Dex.

  20. RansomStoddard said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 2:38 pm

    Our bigs need to put down their poetry books and Webkinz because the Griffin bros love to throw fists and elbows. It’s Big 12 time and that means its going to get physical.

  21. ponderos said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 3:17 pm

    Ransom. I really think you’re confusing this team with Kelvin’s. Sampson played thugball, not Capel. Blake talks a lot of crap, but he doesn’t throw punches.

  22. Kafka said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 5:32 pm

    Bartoncreek:

    I’m enthusiastic about this team. I see several players improving. Damion, Gary, and Dex have all started hitting their free throws. It looks like Damion has figured out that two dribbles and a jump stop will get him to the rim and that it is OK to shoot a 15 foot jump shot. Gary now has a complete offensive game (except for passing) and can hit from 18 feet in. Mason has improved his penetration and finishing. Dex has improved his explosiveness, fitness, and moves as the year has progressed.

    One of Connor’s problems on offense is that there are so few shots for him. Once Dex, Damion, Gary, and Abrams get their shots, there are not too many shots left for anybody else. Also, moving the 3 point line back a foot has probably affected Connor some. He should improve his 3 point shooting as the season progresses.

    Mason’s shooting problems are probably in his head. If he will do something at the free throw line to relax himself (eg: breath deeply and recite a mantra), he will probably improve his free throw shooting a lot. My guess is that he improves his field goal shooting a bunch before this season is over (it couldn’t get worse).

    Having said all that, I don’t think beating OU will be easy because it is a road game in the Big 12 (hello screw job by the refs) and OU is a highly rated team. They may be over rated (I don’t know) but there is no doubt that Blake Griffin is an awesome player, his brother Taylor is a good player, and the rookie point guard is supposed to be awesome.

  23. DBH said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 6:33 pm

    Not a good start for the Horns, but they’re making a little run with Mason and James on the pine.

  24. ballrific said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 6:41 pm

    how did we not recruit warren? or did we and we couldnt get him qualified?

  25. Trips Right said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 6:51 pm

    James will continue on the pine because he’s playing like a pussy. Mason should keep shooting.

  26. DBH said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 6:57 pm

    Barnes is pissed and rightfully so. They look like shit, tonight.

  27. RansomStoddard said:

    January 12th, 2009 at 7:00 pm

    If you think the Griffins don’t get down and dirty you are either blind or a hopeless ou homer

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  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Recapping The South   3 hours, 23 minutes ago

    There were lots of surprises in this region and a near miss or two that could have really turned this bracket upside down. But after the dust settled, seeds 1 through 4 remain alive…for now anyway.

    Duke vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff

    Let’s start at the top where Duke methodically disposed of an Arkansas -Pinebluff cub that gave

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  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   3 hours, 37 minutes ago

    Funny, an OU blog talking about a Texas’ team when referencing the state of unrest and embarrassment. I mean, you have such a rich history to draw from. I’ll miss Tiny. Like Sailor, I love his nickname…..

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  • Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   3 hours, 44 minutes ago

    Why do bad things happen to bad people?

    I will always love the name Tiny Gallon. I see him being a fan favorite in Turkey and he’s going to love the souvlaki.

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  • whiskey commented on the blog post The week in news- Pariahs, Malcontents and Power Hour   4 hours, 12 minutes ago

    This all might actually work out for Tebow in the end. If nothing else he is both a winner and a fierce competitor. I will be surprised if he goes the way of Eric Crouch. I am also liking Quinn’s chances in Denver. He knows that offense and he will

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  • Ag_in_TX wrote a new blog post: Utah State Post-Mortem   4 hours, 30 minutes ago

    Have You Read the Gospel According To Mark? – Sign hanging in Spokane last night.

    At some point, you have to ask if A&M is the best coached team in the Big XII. All due respect to Mr. Self in Kansas – but to use a poker analogy – Self is trying for a flush

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  • Trips Right wrote a new blog post: Second Round Bets   4 hours, 45 minutes ago

    Since my leans are hitting at a better rate than my wagers I’m going to go back to basics and post every thing I like but down to half a unit. We’ll see if that works.

    Here goes:

    Villanova -4.5: After a scare against Bob Morris, time for the ‘Cats to wake up. Too

  • Patrick Bateman wrote a new blog post: Texas Turns the Page   6 hours, 1 minute ago

    Well, WTF was that?  A train wreck is what.  That’s how the entire Texas basketball season can be described.  A screaming, screeching, ugly train wreck.  After ascending to #1 in the nation for the first time in school history, the wheels just fell off during conference play.  You can read all about the final and

  • Ibas water bottle commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   8 hours, 4 minutes ago

    At what point do A.Ds stop hiring Duke people? At a certain point former coach K players stop being successful college players and start being coaches with shady recruiting results right?

    Oh and God bless the crime rate in Stillwater. The simple odds keep the shit from hitting the fan regularly for us.

    Who

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  • Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Oklahoma Sooners – Recruiting So Far   11 hours, 47 minutes ago

    BOC: Neither has visited, yet we hold ’ships open for both.

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  • Nate Heupel wrote a new blog post: Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   11 hours, 56 minutes ago

    TMZ reports that Tiny Gallon took a $3000 payout from an agent.

    My God, Capel has no control over this team whatsoever. This is 2007 offseason Texas football levels of embarrassing. You can’t let a half dozen bad apples spoil a bushel of 10 apples…that analogy sucked balls, but you get my

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