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Year-to-Year Unit Improvements

Posted by Huckleberry on January 7th, 2009 under Football

Defense

Defense is why I began writing this post, so I’ll tackle that one first. I think we all realize that this year’s defense was better than last year’s defense even though it’s hard to tell from the raw numbers. The offenses put up ridiculous amounts of points this year in the Big 12 for various reasons. Without getting too into those details, I will only say that from my perspective two of the reasons were pace and officiating. A large number of offenses in the Big 12 this season played at a very quick pace, and the no-huddle hurry-up was very common in the conference. As for officiating, well, it’s easier to score when holding isn’t called. I’ll leave it at that before I go crazy.

So how to measure defensive improvement in such an environment? My ratings assign an offense and defense rating to each team and a normalized ranking is also produced which allows for some comparison between seasons. One thing that’s important to note, however, is that the effects of pace are incorporated into each number. What that means is that a team that plays at a higher pace than average (producing more possessions per game) will have a higher offense and lower defense rating than an equivalently strong team that plays at a slower pace. That’s important to remember as it introduces the most obvious bias to the study I’m about to report. Also, Thursday’s game will affect Texas’ 2008 ratings as an opponent is involved, but the changes probably won’t be significant enough to affect these results.

To determine year-to-year defensive improvement I subtracted the previous year’s normalized defense rating from the same rating for the current year for each Texas team reflected in the ratings. I then divided by the standard deviation used for the normalized ratings to determine the improvement in terms of standard deviations above the mean. So the final number below is the number of standard deviations better than the previous year that each defense was. The pace effect mentioned in the previous paragraph, therefore, could bias a result in that a team could improve their defense rating simply by playing at a slower pace or playing many games against slower paced teams. However, having watched every game of the 2007 and 2008 Texas football seasons of course, nobody could argue that the 2008 games were played at an overall slower pace than 2007. Quite the opposite, in fact. As reported in the Fiesta Bowl, for example, Texas defended fewer running plays than any other team in the nation this year. Obviously this isn’t directly correlated to pace, but we know that running plays take less time off the clock than passing plays on average because of incompletions.

The table:

Best Y2YDI
Rank Year Y2YDI
1 1957 1.31
2 2008 1.16
3 1998 1.11
4 1940 0.91
5 1990 0.90
6 1966 0.87
7 1972 0.84
8 1944 0.81
9 1989 0.80
10 1981 0.78

I’m not an expert on staff changes throughout our history, but even I can recognize that the top 3 defensive improvements in Texas history according to this analysis are due to major coaching changes. Darrell Royal taking over for Ed Price, Mack Brown taking over for John Mackovic, and Will Muschamp being hired as the new defensive coordinator all resulted in immediate and extreme defensive improvement.

For the masochists among you, here is the table with the opposite results (worst year-to-year defensive change):

Worst Y2YDI
Rank Year Y2YDI
1 1992 -1.90
2 1997 -1.58
3 1984 -1.36
4 1980 -1.36
5 1938 -1.04
6 1943 -1.00
7 1965 -0.89
8 1931 -0.88
9 1973 -0.86
10 2006 -0.81

Here we see Mackovic taking over for McWilliams, Mackovic’s 1997 meltdown, and Akers’ 1984 meltdown represented in the “top” 3 seasons. Also notable is Tommy Nobis’ departure (although srr50 can speak to the other recruiting problems that began to plague the program around that time). Also, the dropoff from 2005 to 2006 shows that our problems were more than just on the offensive side of the ball without Vince, although having a strong offense will help the defense somewhat, of course. It also raises an ugly question about the 2006-07 defensive coordinator’s performance as his takeover of the unit caused the 10th worst dropoff and his leaving the role resulted in the 2nd best improvement in our history.
Offense

While I was here I figured I’d throw up the offense tables.

Best Y2YOI
Rank Year Y2YOI
1 1977 1.99
2 1998 1.85
3 1941 1.80
4 2005 1.67
5 1932 1.64
6 1968 1.33
7 1939 1.29
8 1921 1.23
9 1914 1.12
10 1987 1.12

So, we have Akers taking over for Royal (move to Earl as the tailback), Brown taking over for Mackovic (focus on Ricky after Mackovic’s meltdown), the 1941 team, and the year it all came together in 2005.

Worst Y2YOI
Rank Year Y2YOI
1 1976 -1.90
2 1942 -1.58
3 1933 -1.36
4 1971 -1.36
5 2006 -1.04
6 1997 -1.00
7 1991 -0.89
8 1962 -0.88
9 1916 -0.86
10 1944 -0.81

At first glance, this table appears to have a high correlation to the years following an outstanding offensive outburst more than coaching changes. I’d be interested to hear what happened in 1976, though.

Note: All tables use only results since 1912 when the current scoring system of 6 points for a touchdown and 3 for a field goal was introduced

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36 Responses

  1. Gene Claude said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    As we’ve discussed briefly, the pace concept is getting way too little national play. Big 12 defenses faced almost 10 more plays/game than did SEC defenses. That is a huge difference.

  2. Huckleberry said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:48 pm

    10 plays per game per team? So 20 total plays per game?

    If yes, then you are correct that it’s a huge difference. That’s borderline ridiculous.

  3. chitwood said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

    Wasn’t Chizik still the coordinator in 2006? Accordingly, the 10th worst was under his watch.

  4. Huckleberry said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:51 pm

    Actually, yes. My mistake. Chizik was still the co-coordinator or whatever they were at that point.

  5. chitwood said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:53 pm

    No problem. I’ll only downgrade you to an A-.

  6. Stuck in MN said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:56 pm

    “I’d be interested to hear what happened in 1976, though.”

    Earl Campbell’s hamstring

  7. Huckleberry said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 12:59 pm

    No problem. I’ll only downgrade you to an A-.

    It’s a good thing I had that sentence about not being an expert on staff changes throughout our history. I’ll just call that foreshadowing and act like I meant for that mistake to happen.

  8. srr50 said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

    I’d be interested to hear what happened in 1976, though.

    Injuries, especially to Earl. He was hampered by a pulled hamstring the entire season. Spent all year overweight and depressed.

    Having a walk-on at QB (Mike Cordaro)didn’t exactly help matters.

    With Earl hurt, the Wishbone was the worst possible offense for what talent we had on campus (most of which were freshmen and sophmores). No real fullback, no QB who could run the ‘Bone, and so Johnny “Lam” Jones spent most of the season being singled out and stopped at HB.

    Jon Aune and Mark McBath were also on campus, but they were true freshmen hardly capable of stepping in and running the offense.

    1977 New offense, new Earl along with older (and wiser) players like Lam and Ham Jones. To say nothing of a healthy offensive line.

  9. DBH said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

    1976 was so bad that the team finished 5-5-1 and Coach Royal retired. The pressure of trying to compete against Switzer’s cheating and spying finally wore him out.

  10. Spring Branch Horn said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

    In 1976 started off bad with the above mentioned QBs struggling but late in the year McBath took over got some experience and gave the postion stability. Then against Ark. (last game) Earl came back and ran for over 100 yards as did McBath who gained 123 yards which stood as a Freshman QB game rushing record for many years.

  11. Spring Branch Horn said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

    What was the name of the other QB who also played that year with Cordaro?

  12. srr50 said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 1:40 pm

    What was the name of the other QB who also played that year with Cordaro?

    Ted Constanzo

  13. Bob in Houston said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

    What an awful season.

    The other way to look at it was the fact that Randy McEachern, the third-stringer, stepped in in Dallas with a healthy Earl and was the QB of a near-MNC team.

  14. Spring Branch Horn said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 2:20 pm

    I should have excluded you from answering srr50.

    Boston College loss in 1976 was painful not to mention the loss to Houston or A&M.

    The finish was nice though with Royal beating Broyles

  15. Stuck in MN said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    I remember that Arkansas game. I was 6 and I left to go to the bathroom right before the half and I missed Texas scoring twice to take the lead. I learned a valuable lesson that day.

  16. Brian Combs said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

    “Obviously this isn’t directly correlated to pace, but we know that running plays take less time off the clock than passing plays on average because of incompletions.”

    Perhaps this statement is is backwards?

  17. Gene Claude said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 2:57 pm

    SEC defenses faced 7 fewer plays per game, on average, than did Big 12 defenses. Was reciting the number from memory, had to go check.

  18. Gene Claude said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

    The run/pass issue regarding pace is interesting. MU, KU, OU, OSU and UT were in bottom 13 in number of passes attempted against their defenses.

    I have no doubt tha tthe exceptional pace on offense in the Big 12 contributed mightily to the woeful national defensive rankings in yards and points. There are three BCS schools in the top 10 in total offensive plays this year, each is a Big 12 school.

  19. Larry MacDuff said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

    I just now finished spending all that money. Thanks again!

  20. Justaguy said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 3:43 pm

    Gene Claude,

    The extra plays would have an impact on the yards given up per game and explain for the lower rankings, but after watching the six Big 12 teams play in their bowl games I do believe that there are just some bad defenses in the Big 12 this year.

    Nebraska was the only one of the six Big 12 teams to significantly hold their opponent below their seasonal offensive averages.

  21. Musburger said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 4:15 pm

    For year-to-year comparisons it might be helpful to look at data such as average yards given up per possession or points given up per possession. I don’t know if it’s possible to find such data.

    Also, I’m curious to look at the number of plays run by both teams in the RRS in 2008 vs 2007. I’m guessing due to the hurry-up style used by OU and the no huddle used by Texas that the ‘08 game probably ran about 10% more plays. If so, you would expect the yardage totals to reflect that.

  22. srr50 said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 4:59 pm

    I’m guessing due to the hurry-up style used by OU and the no huddle used by Texas that the ‘08 game probably ran about 10% more plays. If so, you would expect the yardage totals to reflect that.

    In 2007, Texas had 55 offensive snaps (29 run 26 pass for 385 yards) while OU had 73 (41 run, 32 pass for 414 yards). That is a total of 128 offensive snaps for a total offensive output from both teams of 799 yards or 6.2 yards per snap.

    In 2008, Texas had 70 offensive snaps (35 run, 35 pass for 438 yards) while OU had 67 snaps(26 run, 41 pass for 435 yards).

    That was 137 offensive snaps (a little over 6% more than in 2007) for 873 yards, which is about 6.4 yards per play.

  23. texexinwa said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 5:41 pm

    Regarding the 1976 offensive drop-off, in addition to Earl’s hamstring , don’t forget that in ‘75 Marty Akins ran the wishbone as well as anyone ever did. It was a tough act to follow for anyone and neither Mike Cordaro or Mark McBath were up to it. I don’t recall Ted Constanzo ever getting on the field as a QB in ‘76 but I might have missed it (it was the seventies and there was a lot drugs and alcohol flowing).

  24. Musburger said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 7:34 pm

    You are getting rusty Srr. It took 44 minutes to give the correct response. We’ve got to hone those research skills and get that down under 30 minutes.
    Kudos for the fine job.

  25. Huckleberry said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 9:22 pm

    texexinwa -

    The 1975 offense is very highly rated in my system. The #4 offense in Texas history. Glad to see even just a little background on it.

  26. the Bobs said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 11:35 pm

    the 1975 team ran the wishbone with one of the really good wishbone QBs (Akins), and THE best wishbone fullback of all time – Earl.

    In 1976, Marty was gone, and Earl was hurt pretty much all year – and trust me, it was painful watching Mike Cordero try to run the wishbone with only Lam Jones as a legit threat. North Texas came awfully close to an upset, for goodness sakes. There were also tons of injuries that year, both on offense and defense. Truly a dreadful year, and it wore Royal out… plus the OU game was a painful tie, where instead of a great upset win, we fumbled the ball late deep in our end of the field, and only a bad snap on the extra point left us with the tie.

    The only good thing about that year was it ended… and as mentioned earlier, Royal got to go out with a butt-whipping of Arkansas (and avoid an ignominious losing season…)

    All in all, it’s a lot more fun to remember the following year.

  27. General Custer said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 3:17 am

    When do the Sam Bradford == Jim Plunkett comparisons start?

  28. Texoz said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 6:01 am

    Stuck in MN
    January 7, 2009 at 2:36 pm I remember that Arkansas game. I was 6 and I left to go to the bathroom right before the half and I missed Texas scoring twice to take the lead. I learned a valuable lesson that day.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    It’s okay, Stuck. You can go to the bathroom now.

  29. Stuck in MN said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 6:47 am

    I just take a catheter to all games now. Really simplifies things.

  30. Gene Claude said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 8:36 am

    Justaguy, you are missing the point on pace and its effect on defenses. A big 12 defense would not be expected to hold an opponent below its season average, because a Big 12 defense would face more plays on the field due to its offense playing a hurry up pace.

    What you did is EXACTLY the flaw that we are trying to get a handle on. You are comparing gross stats for a Big 12 defense to defenses that have the luxury of being paired with a glacial offense. You would expect, all things being equal, that a Big 12 defense would look worse in that comparison, through no fault of its own.

  31. Spring Branch Horn said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 8:53 am

    It is more about the offenses time of possession than whether it is run or pass

  32. Justaguy said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 11:04 am

    Wait a minute. By saying that Ok-State and Tech’s defenses looked like shit by giving up 500+ yards in a bowl game I am perpetrating a myth and that they really don’t suck that bad? If that isn’t their fault whose is it?

    When the other defenses in the conference really don’t excel in their bowl games with the exception of Nebraska that is a product of numbers and averages and not the performance on the field?

    The great thing about numbers is that you can make them say anything you want. Much like Texas rank defending the run this sound. On paper great. In the two games in which they played a run based offense not so great.

    Bottom line is that this conference had 2-3 above average to very good defenses and the rest weren’t very good.

  33. Spring Branch Horn said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

    Of course Texas run defense was big against OU in the 45-35 beat down – should have been 45-28 (except for the punter roughing bogus call)

  34. TaylorTRoom said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 1:27 pm

    Texas’ struggle with the Buckeyes’ running game should have been expected. When you remove sacks from the NCAA rushing stats, UT has allowed 4.75 yards per rush. Teams in the Big 12 just didn’t call many rushes against us early, because that’s not what they like to do, nor late, because they were usually down a few scores.

    Removing sacks, OU has allowed 4.4 yards per rush. Florida should be able to run on them some.

  35. BatesHorn said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

    Is this the appropriate time for some Benjamin Disraeli?

    Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics…

  36. Justaguy said:

    January 8th, 2009 at 3:01 pm

    Spring Branch Horn,

    Definitely and I think it was very ironic how that game played out compared to games earlier in the decade. OU got away from the run when they had no success and while they did have success throwing the ball they moved the ball more through big plays than consistent drives.

    Texas went to the running game and the intermediate passing game to take advantage in the Sooners defense and keep their defense on the field.

    In the end Texas wore down the Sooners and was reflected by how the 4th quarter played out. This is in contrast to how the games played out between 2000-2004.

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