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Posted by Scipio Tex on January 3rd, 2009 under Football
This is the companion piece to my Ohio State Defensive Preview.
Ohio State Offense

Ohi-O on the hot seat
Ohio State’s offense is three yards and a cloud of musk. It’s a playful body spray that smells like 3rd and 4; a cologne called Bleak Industrial Town that offers a hint of freshly cut grass, burning ottomans, and lugnuts. The numbers – 28.2 ppg and 339 yards per contest – don’t exactly leap off of the page, but Jim Tressel has a fairly large case of don’t-give-a-shit when it comes to statistics or style points. Tress is a conservative cat and he’ll only give his offense over to a playmaker when that player has compiled enough trust to sponge bath Mrs Tressel.
The Buckeyes had a number of contests this year in which they were totally worked over by an opposing defense, gaining less than 300 yards of offense against four teams: Ohio U, USC, Purdue & Penn State. Some of that is attributable to legitimate ineptitude, a bit of it has to do with the fact that Les TressVest is quite content to run clock sometime early in the 3rd quarter if they’re leading 13-3. Like their defense, much of Ohio State’s system is predicated on your propensity to screw up. If you don’t; if you’re sound and technical, if you tackle well and don’t get sloppy, they’ll have a tough time putting together a coherent drive. In fact, this Buckeye team’s primary goal appears to be to drive to midfield, get a good punt, and start playing field position. We know this philosophy: it was once The Texas Way.
Personnel:
QB
I mentioned that Todd Boeckman was horrible before the USC game and getting him on the pine was crucial to Ohio State transforming themselves into Buckeye 2.0. The insertion of true freshman Terrelle Pryor into the full time starting lineup after the USC debacle wasn’t necessarily the offensive superboost one would expect, rather the freshman served as a stabilizing force who limited turnovers and kept the QB position from slipping a stilleto into Ohio State’s defense and running game. Pryor has only thrown 4 INTs in 152 pass attempts (and one of them was a meaningless end of half Hail Mary). Other than his famous gaffe against Penn St, the guy has been rock solid in ball security and a good decision maker. You would think he was the 5th year senior and Boeckman the flighty youth.
And Tress has a package for both of them!
The obvious comparator for Pryor is Vince Young. So let’s get it over with. I cringe every time a TV announcer compares any black QB who runs less than a 5.0 40 and stands taller than 6′ to VY, but I can understand the desire to compare Pryor because of his physical make up. They’re different animals. First, young Vince was a far more dynamic and creative runner. Pryor is a very good running QB with the ability to hurt you. His 124 carries for 553 yards and a 4.5 average with a season long of 38 yards are Colt McCoy numbers – not Vince Young numbers. He’s Scott Frost. See what I did there? Pryor is much stronger than Vince was at this same stage in his development (he’s about 30 pounds heavier for one thing), but Vince could break ankles in the open field and he was far quicker. The good news for Ohio State fans is that Pryor is a little bit of ahead of Vince throwing the ball at this stage in his development (we were still futzing with Vince trying to change his throwing motion at this time) and Pryor certainly takes better care of the rock. The real issue – what made Vince Vince and one of the ten most dominant players to ever play the college game – was the ability to rise to the occasion in the big game and make plays of supreme clutchitude over and over and over. Until Pryor begins to do that, this is not really a conversation that interests me.
RBs/WRs/TEs
TE is a third tackle in the Buckeye system and that’s a nice gift for a Texas defense that has faced the most murderous slate of TEs in Texas history: James Casey from Rice, the DJ Whatshisfuck kid from Arkansas, Pettigrew, Gresham, Coffman, Antonio Gates, and John Mackey. Maybe I added in a couple. Anyway, the good news here is that though we’ll need to find Rory Nicol near the goalline, 6 catches for 60 yards doesn’t have anyone on our defense quaking. Our LBs can think Beanie and Pryor and that’s a good thing when it’s 3rd and 4.
The Buckeye WRs are solid, serviceable, veteran. Santonio Holmes, Anthony Gonzalez, and Ted Ginn are long gone and that’s another respite for a secondary used to facing NFL first rounders every week. Brian Robiskie plays the role of possession receiver (leads the team with 37 catches), Brian Hartline plays the deep threat (8 TDs). They’re both tall and skinny and they’re good at getting the ball in the air. Dane Sanzenbacher eclipsed Ray Small as the #3 WR and he’s a solid slot guy who made some nice plays against Penn State. Ray Small is probably the fastest of the group but he’s underutilized and seems to end up in the doghouse periodically for acting like a dick. He’s a good punt retuner though. These guys are a threat if you go to sleep or gang up on the Buckeye running game. Don’t peek in the backfield.

Nothing is more terrifying than a Beanie
At RB, Beanie Wells is the shit and he’s finally healthy. He’s a 6-1 240+ rolling ball of butcher knives who wants to run you over so hard that you taste spinal fluid in the back of your throat. He also has enough giddyup to take it to the house if you allow him a clean hole up the power alley. His primary deficiency is the knock against any big man running back – get him to change course early with penetration and he’s a gang tackle waiting to happen. You definitely want to hit Beanie when his pads are faced towards the sideline. If he’s bearing downhill on Gideon or Thomas, they need to be brave, grab on to something, and pray for the cavalry to come. Despite missing three full games and portions of others, he still cranked out 1,000+ at a 5.7 yards per carry clip. Penn St was the only team Ohio State played that stopped him. I fully expect Beanie to carry it 25 times and then head off to the NFL. Dan Herron is the freshman that will spell Beanie and he’s a classy little complementary player who has some nice cutback ability.
OL
This a much maligned group that struggles in pass protection but can be bullying in the run game when they find their groove. Despite having Pryor as the starter for nine games, they allowed 26 sacks on the year and they gave up sacks in bunches to quality defenses. They’re big, they’re pretty physical, they run to set up the pass, so what’s the problem? A good bit of it is a lack of quickness and lateral movement. They don’t protect gaps well and they don’t have active enough feet to finish blocks. True freshman center Michael Brewster has a very bright future and he was a coveted recruit, but Roy Miller is a tough draw for him. He’s surrounded by veterans Boone, Cordle, Rehring, & Browning – 6-8 315 pound Alex Boone draws Orakpo at LT and if Brian is healthy that should make for some moments of comedy. We may not put up a ton of sacks initially because of containment worries, but if we can open up an early lead, they’ll come in droves. Muschamp has had six weeks to mess with these guy’s worlds and if we don’t in a big way, I’m going to be disappointed. I’ll gladly concede one 60 yard run from Beanie if his other 20 go for 35 and include 7 or 8 TFLS that put them in 2nd or 3rd and long. Conversely, giving up four to seven a pop is the slow death that will kill us all.
Strategy:
Ohio State has ballers at QB and RB and they’re looking to run the ball down our throat, control tempo, and finish opportunistic drives with touchdowns rather than field goals. An ideal Ohio State gameplan would feature 35:00+ TOP and 7-10 conversions of third and short to steal a 23-21 type game. We have them outmanned on the DL and Lamarr Houston’s recovery from a bad ankle that hampered him down the stretch will be key. Clearly, Miller and Orakpo have distinct matchup advantages and they need to need to be merciless in exploiting them. Jared Norton will also be crucial playing a more conventional 4-3 for us. He has to play with good pad level and finish his tackles with a wrap – Beanie Wells will take your big hit and keep right on running. He’s going to see a lot of unblocked iso plays when they double Miller. He has to make it happen. Muckelroy needs to have 10 tackles and be our finisher on Pryor and Wells. He has to make that tackle for the four yard gain that will become 40 if he can’t get there. If we get Ohio State into 3rd and long, it should be fairly brutal – we’ll play pressure containment and collapse the pocket in like a dying star. Then we’ll start bringing blitz exotica if OSU shows us their spread looks. Muschamp should have us playing some gap games early on because getting Ohio St into 2nd and 12 is a major blow to what the Bucks are trying to achieve. If we need to outnumber the run to stop it, we will, but Muschamp isn’t going to concede throws over the top in one-on-one coverage. He never has, he never will.
The greatest favor our offense could offer our defense would be a quick 14-0 lead. If we get caught up in the long grind and try to “establish the run” or place our defense in bad situations with passivity and boneheadedness on offense and special teams, Ohio State can and will steal this game. If we play aggressive offense (see Utah against Alabama for our first ten plays from scrimmage) and don’t make silly mistakes, Ohio State’s ability to create offense will be negligible. The fact that they can line up nearly 750 pounds in their backfield and run downhill is concerning, but we have too much quality on our DL for us to be manhandled with any consistency.
Outside of turnovers on our side of the 50, special teams touchdowns, or freak acts of God, I’m having a tough time envisioning more than 17 points for the Buckeyes.
Trips Right said:
January 3rd, 2009 at 9:35 pm
Great post. I love that our young secondary can sit back and play centerfield this game. No Bradford, no harrell, no Robinson, no Daniels to worry about. If you’re Muschamp, do you play A Williams instead of Beasley? Cause he’s like, more physical, and shit.
PB at BON said:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:04 pm
Excellent piece, sir.
I actually posted just now a long-ish piece on Pryor, and though our analysis is in lock-step, I indulged the oft-heard VY comparison as a point of contrast. There, too, we agree.
Hope we shut down Beanie on Monday night. We’re gold if so.
hiphopopotamus said:
January 3rd, 2009 at 10:18 pm
As always, wonderful work. I have nothing to add, other than that I concur and frankly, I also think it’s as simple as just taking care of the ball and containing Beanie. If done, the rest will take care of itself.
98 said:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:01 pm
i really want to see if we play man on their receivers and ask our safeties to peek into the backfield or run blitz; that would be a good indication of how far along our secondary is and how much confidence muschamp has in them.
i know i am greedy; but a second year muschamp defense would make my final semester in UT slightly better than my first one in 2005.
bighornfan32 said:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:27 pm
Isn’t awesome to have a DL that just wrecks shit?
Nero said:
January 3rd, 2009 at 11:32 pm
I was at the ND @ UT game in 1996. To this day, the most frustrating thing I have ever endured as a longhorn fan is this:
#44 Edwards, Marc FB 6′0″ 237lbs
14 carries for 61 yards.
That big white MFer ran right up UT’s gut the entire fourth quarter, 4 to 7 yards at a time. IIRC, their last drive for the field goal was a long one, and UT could NOT stop that guy. It was a slow and painful death to end that game.
That was a long time ago, and we have a much different team now, but this is what I fear from Beanie Wells. This kind of twisting of the knife over and over.
However, I trust Muschamp.
CrazyJoeDavola said:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:35 am
Nero, it couldn’t have been any worse than the day we inexorably cinched the Heisman trophy for the stellar Rashaan Salaam.
SlickStreet said:
January 4th, 2009 at 6:27 am
enjoyable read, Scip. Your mention of Miller and the defensive front is a reason I have some confidence–despite us being used to playing pass-happy opponents most all year. I think Muschamp welcomes this kind of game and hope the players can meet the expectations of Beanie’s brutal efforts.
Do think their OL is even a bit suspect in the ground game, having replayed all or parts of some of their latter season contests. It’s maybe not uncommon for a lesser opponent to make some plays early, but I was surprised at how many runs of minimal yardage Beanie would have. Then, he’d break a tackle or two at the LOS and go for 50. As you note, it’s a reason Norton/MLB will need to have a big game.
NorthDallasSooner said:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:21 am
I hope you guys win, I really do. Story in Dallas Morning News this morning that a tour company from Columbus that filled 13 buses last time they played there only filled 1 this time. (It is the fourth time they’ve played there in 7 years).
What about on the Orangeblood end? Are we looking at a 2/3 full stadium Monday?
t1climb1 said:
January 4th, 2009 at 7:31 am
NDS,
I’m sure some of that is attributable to the economy. The economy is the reason I’m not going this time (hello commission sales). But, I have a good frind who is pretty connected in the OSU program (his father was a longtime emplyee in the athletic department) and he told me that many of the people there actually wish they were not playing in this game. He said he thinks we will win by 20+ and I imagine others in Columbus share the same worries.
dasmithjones said:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Another reason to respect Coach Boom:
From OrangeBloods interview by Chip Brown-
Q: Do you feel like Prince Charles waiting to ascend the throne?
MUSCHAMP: My name is Will.
Kansas Horn said:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Any idea if Chykie will finally be allowed to start again? Is he out of the doghouse or no longer injured(Whichever on it is)?
MIA said:
January 4th, 2009 at 11:42 am
“My name is Will.”
This would make a kick ass t-shirt.
Black Scholes said:
January 4th, 2009 at 4:56 pm
Brilliant writeup.
Crown & Coke said:
January 4th, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Scipio,
Given tOSU’s slow and suspect OL, isn’t Sergio the game’s defensive X-Factor coming off the edge?
I give their big uglies a decent shot of stuffing the middle and using occasional double teams to keep Roy & ‘Rake at bay, but I think they are gonna be hard-pressed to find anyone who can neutralize Sergio’s game-breaking speed and agility.
I honestly won’t be surprised if he tallies four individual sacks and makes the NFL announcement directly after the game.
DBH said:
January 4th, 2009 at 8:42 pm
Nice analysis and great writing, as always. Thanks, Scip…
Jason said:
January 4th, 2009 at 9:17 pm
Line of the week:
“Ray Small is probably the fastest of the group but he’s underutilized and seems to end up in the doghouse periodically for acting like a dick.”
And so true. Good luck tomorrow night, gents.
Gene Claude said:
January 5th, 2009 at 8:56 am
To Scip, Henry, Huckleberry, I have a project question…
I’m weary of the hits the Big 12 defenses are taking. It seems obvious to me that Big 12 defenses suffer in national yards/points rankings for at least two reasons. One, Big 12 offenses are yardage machines. Two, Big 12 offenses are more prone to the no huddle hurry up system, resulting in more plays against Big 12 defenses.
I’m trying to brainstorm about ways to normalize national defensive statistics, both for Big 12 offensive prolificacy and pace of play. I’d like to bounce ideas off you guys, if one or more of you could shoot me an email. Thanks.
Huckleberry said:
January 5th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Gene, Ken Pomeroy has pace-adjusted statistics for NCAA basketball. And while he now writes for Basketball Prospectus, the ratings and the explanation are still on his free website.
Also, my ratings normalize for competition but do not account for pace specifically. Essentially, the offense and defense ratings can be considered a combination of the pace and efficiency ratings from Pomeroy’s system.
In my system, the offense number represents the number of points that a team would be expected to score on average against an average team (this includes all levels of college football, hence the large numbers). The defense number represents the number of points that a team will prevent its opponent from scoring on average compared to an average defense.
So, for example, using the ratings, Texas will be expected to score 29.3 points (68.23-38.93) at a neutral site on average against Ohio State.
As you can see, the Big 12 teams rank as follows on defense (not out of 120 teams because I-AA, etc. are included):
Texas – 4
Oklahoma – 23
Texas Tech – 34
Oklahoma State – 40
Missouri – 41
Baylor – 46
Colorado – 47
Kansas – 51
Nebraska – 63
Kansas St. – 95
Iowa St. – 97
Texas A&M – 112
SEC defenses:
Florida – 3
Alabama – 7
Auburn – 14
South Carolina – 15
Tennessee – 16
Vanderbilt – 18
Ole Miss – 20
Kentucky – 50
LSU – 54
Georgia – 55
Mississippi St. – 74
Arkansas – 80
So, the SEC defenses do rate better.
Big 12 offenses:
Oklahoma – 1
Texas – 4
Texas Tech – 5
Missouri – 6
Oklahoma St. – 10
Nebraska – 14
Kansas – 23
Kansas St. – 31
Baylor – 42
Texas A&M – 49
Iowa St. – 76
Colorado – 103
SEC Offenses:
Florida – 2
Georgia – 15
Ole Miss – 18
Alabama – 24
LSU – 26
Arkansas – 67
South Carolina – 78
Kentucky – 80
Vanderbilt – 88
Tennessee – 101
Auburn – 129
Mississippi St. – 135
So there are 5 offenses in the SEC that aren’t dog shit.
But, of course, pace isn’t included. I’m still working on a way to pull that out of my data, but I don’t think it’s possible at this point using only the relationship between the power, offense, and defense ratings.
Gene Claude said:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Interesting, Huck. The immediate question is: Which direction does the causal relationship flow between [SEC offenses suck / defenses rule] and [Big 12 defenses suck / offenses rule]. I’ve been trying to come up with some protocols to test the relationships, but I might be too dumb.
It seems obvious to me, and the rough stats I’ve looked at support, that a team’s offensive pace has a relatively severe negative effect on that team’s gross yardage/point stats. In other words, offensive TOP should have a strong correlation with defensive yards and points surrendered for that team. Right? I’m sure I’m WAAAAAY behind you on all of this, sorry about that.
Huckleberry said:
January 5th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
At first glance, I would think TOP is not a very optimal starting point. Teams that score quickly when playing other teams that score quickly will have a close to 30 minute TOP. An average-paced team will have a high TOP when playing a fast-paced team and a low TOP when playing a slow-paced team.
I think number of possessions per game is the critical factor, allowing for running out the clock situations at the end of a half. Determining the number of possessions in a game should be able to be fairly accurately estimated using box scores. It would simply be number of punts plus number of non-safety scores plus turnovers. If anyone keeps track of turnovers on downs that would be the last factor.
Running out the clock drives would be the problem that couldn’t be handled with quick box score estimates.
Gene Claude said:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Interesting, and correct. So, the data gathering is possessions per game for everyone. ESPN has drive charts, that would be about as easy as doing what you suggested for each box score.
Kansas Horn said:
January 5th, 2009 at 1:15 pm
I’ll ask again:
Anybody know the status of Chykie, and if he will finally be allowed to start again after his injury or doghouse status? (whichever one it was)
Gene Claude said:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:10 pm
Huck, wouldn’t this be the easiest way to get the number of possessions data?
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=283130142
Huckleberry said:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:29 pm
Yes, and I would throw out drives with the results “end of game” or “end of half” as the offense didn’t have a true opportunity to complete the possession.
I wish I were smart enough to be able to write a script that could crawl through the ESPN scoreboard pages and mine the data for every D-1A game. That would be pimp.
Huckleberry said:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
One other issue: do we know that ESPN.com has that information for every D-1A game?
Gene Claude said:
January 5th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I’m quite sure they don’t.
Is there any chance I could peek behind the curtain on your rankings? I’m dying to know how you do things.