Football Articles
Fantasy Football: What We Learned
Posted by dedfischer on December 22nd, 2008 under Football
If you recall, I was toying this offseason with a spreadsheet to rank players for my fantasy drafts. I leisurely followed my pre-rankings with how things turned out at the end of the season to test the validity. On running backs, I failed miserably and need to study the final rankings to see if I can find any trends. On the other hand, the wide receivers seemed to hold a little weight. I didn’t post my QB, TE and Defense rankings, but they appeared to be fairly helpful as well. The Bucs and Packers defense carried me through most of the season, and ended up ranked almost exactly where the spreadsheet had them at. I bailed on both of them in the championship game and rolled with Cincy against Ken Dorsey, which paid an extra $600 and a title. I’ll give some final thoughts, but for now, I want to look at where I went wrong:
Fail
1st Round – Joseph Addai - When he and his OL were healthy, Addai was fairly productive. Unfortunately, that was only for about 4 or 5 games. I drafted Dominic Rhodes as insurance, which would have justified this pick, but I had to cut him one week due to injuries. Planning on picking him up the next week, Addai got hurt and someone with a shitty team snatched up Rhodes.
3rd Round – Jamal Lewis – The Addai/Rhodes combo can be justified, but this pick was just pure idiocy. When the Browns passing game never got untracked, neither did Lewis…….all season. I should have gone for potential here with someone like DeAngelo Williams, Matt Forte or Michael Turner. Age really started to show on Lewis and LT this season.
Those were really my only two bad picks. Thinking they were by #1 and #2 RBs, I figured I would be screwed.
Winners
2nd Round – Andre Johnson - In my final spreadsheet, I had Johnson ranked as the #3 overall receiver ahead of Braylon Edwards. There wasn’t a whole lot of tangible difference in them and Johnson was more consistent. I went with the guy who would be catching passes in warm weather.
4th Round – Brandon Jacobs - I was debating a WR here, but when Jacobs was still there as a keeper prospect, I waffled. It worked out.
5th Round – Kurt Warner – People laughed at me during our live draft, but the spreadsheet had him as the 4th overall QB. He led the league for parts of the year, but has dropped off and will finish most likely in the top 5. Not bad value for this round. I didn’t really worry about QB play for most of the season. Plus, I was able to snag Matt Cassel off the waiver wire when everyone bailed on him in the bye week. I benched Warner in lieu of Cassel yesterday, which helped a lot.
6th Round – Tony Gonzalez – I was using the fill out my roster with starters approach, and I needed a TE. I felt lucky Gonzalez was still on the board.
7th Round – Dwayne Bowe – My biggest reservation was having two Chiefs on my team. Bowe wasn’t a gamebreaker by any means, but he consistently delivered 8-10 points a week, which worked well as a #2 receiver or flex in most cases.
11th Round – Derrick Mason - He filled in with some nice weeks rotating with Bowe.
Lucky Waiver Wire Deals (besides Cassel)
Kevin Smith - Someone bailed on this guy too early and now he’s a keeper pick for me. Smith saved my ass for the botching of Addai/Rhodes affair. He had some down weeks, while they flirted with his carries and Rudi Johnson. But, when they fed Smith 20 a game, he was low end #1/high #2 and looks to be a good goalline back in the future. He and Calvin Johnson are bright spots on an otherwise dismal Lions team.
Antonio Bryant - He was on and off my roster early in the season, but was permanent by week 8. And luckily for me, he was clutch down the stretch teamed with Johnson.
Matt Cassel - I went through array of backup QBs never planning on using them, but I kept Cassel tucked away after he had been whored around on the waiver wire.
Conclusion
I’m back to the drawing board on RBs, but I’m not the only one who undervalued Williams, Turner, and Forte. And, I’m not sure if there’s really any science to it. One thing all those guys all have in common is that they played on rather shitty teams from the previous year. I plan to look a little closer at the schedule flopping the NFL does and see if there’s a trend there. Other than that, fresh legs and a decent OL is about all I can figure out.
While the RB rankings weren’t of much value, it seemed like all the other positional rankings were. My goal was to shoot for consistency over big numbers. As the season played out, my roster wasn’t the strongest at any one position, but from top to bottom, I didn’t have as many holes as the teams I played. I had to beat a guy in the semifinals, who was sporting Turner, Brian Westbrook, Steve Slaton, and Chris Johnson. I just got lucky there, but I still put up a nice score to win. More than anything, it seemed like the spreadsheet provided a guideline for me to avoid complete disasters. I made fewer roster moves than in the past, and it appeared the consistency factor was reflected in my team scoring throughout the year. I only had 2 dud games of scoring less than 91 points and averaged 117 points a game over the last 9 weeks of the season. Not sure of most scoring systems, but ours is fairly standard and conservative. I had figured that if you could score 90 points a week, you would be assured a top 2 seed based on results of the last 3 seasons. This is the first year I’ve used this system and it bore mainly out of frustration over the online rankings. I’m not sure how much it helped, and I assume luck plays more into it than anything. However, I can’t discredit that I did use it to draft my two teams this year and won titles in both leagues. I’ll keep tweaking the RB criteria and I would like to hear some ideas of how we might create a method to take the madness out of the position.
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Want to plant my feet on Rampart Street… 40 minutes ago
I am so irritated you guys are so good yet I am rooting for you. Saw the BC/MTM guy predicted you to final four.
That would be awesome.
Sic em and shit.
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whiskey commented on the blog post Jack Swarbrick Causes Server Meltdown 50 minutes ago
Nate, I think your argument is pretty solid for the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 10 but not so much on the Big 10. If you look at the 2009 Sagarin strength of sked: ND-37, Ohio St-50, Iowa-41, Penn St-73. Not so sure joining the Big 10 really helps ND’s chances. With
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post All Signs Point to March Madness Expanding to 96 Teams 54 minutes ago
The NCAA, apparently, could fuck up a soup sandwich. Piss on Myles Brand’s greedy grave.
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 1 hour ago
Mr. Bateman – First let me say I’m not trying to be an asshole or pick a fight. This is a great column and great fun to read.
Re this:
I think Kiffin’s staff is competent enough, particularly Papa Kiffin (DC), John Baxter (a pretty good ST coach), and Todd McNair is a decent RB
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bigdukesix commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 1 hour, 47 minutes ago
Kiffin’s father is a great coach, but the rest of that staff isn’t. Orgeron and Kiffin are both good, dirty recruiters and mediocre to poor gameday coaches.
How important is that in college football? How good of a gameday coach is Mack Brown? Greg Davis?
Orgeron is actually a damn fine defensive line coach,
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Tim commented on the blog post NIT Preview – Seton Hall 1 hour, 51 minutes ago
How much longer to football season?
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Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 2 hours, 12 minutes ago
CTJ,
Always impassioned. I agree with you that his delay had to do with not being eligible to sign rather than awaiting for the smoke to settle. However, the point is not with motive but with opportunity. Maybe the kid and his family don’t know anything and just trudged along with his planned
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CloseToJumping commented on the blog post Beat the Barkers NCAA Tourney Bracket 3 hours, 4 minutes ago
I am angling for the weekend with SizzleChest. I am hoping to channel his evil in the right directions.
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Casey Heathcott commented on the blog post Want to plant my feet on Rampart Street… 3 hours, 12 minutes ago
Interesting read by a Kentucky writer: Apparently Kansas and Baylor are the only two teams with a shot at winning it all. http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20100316/COLUMNISTS01/303160023
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Mister Mike commented on the blog post State of the Union – NU Basketball, Part 1 (or Why We Are Where We Are) 3 hours, 31 minutes ago
I get what you’re saying, but honestly, it’s a cop out. Period. If the AD was to actually commit some resources into building a program, we would be competitive and probably would even give K-State a run for its money. We may never be a KU, but we sure as hell wouldn’t
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J Rog commented on the blog post Bienvenidos a Miami: Heat Preview 4 hours, 19 minutes ago
Totally agree re: RJ. I’m hesitant to shout it from the mountain tops until he does it against a contending team. So far his success has been against 2nd tier teams.
Ginobili is just incredible to watch right now. Just goes to show how hurt he really must have been last season.
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Sancho wrote a new blog post: 2010 Football Schedule Released 4 hours, 23 minutes ago
09/05/10 at Texas Tech
09/11/10 vs. UAB * Ford Stadium
09/18/10 vs. Washington State Ford Stadium
09/24/10 vs. TCU Ford Stadium
10/02/10 at Rice * Houston, Texas
10/09/10 vs. Tulsa * Ford Stadium
10/16/10 at Navy Annapolis, Md.
10/23/10 vs. Houston * Ford Stadium
10/30/10 at Tulane * New Orleans, La.
11/06/10 at UTEP * El Paso, Texas
11/20/10 vs. Marshall * Ford Stadium
11/27/10
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James commented on the blog post Things To Do While Not Watching OU in the NCAA Tourney 4 hours, 38 minutes ago
Nate, agreed on the buying players. What does the NCAA do? Oh yeah, you “vacate wins”. I vacated my bowels this morning.
I was busting your balls on Oklahoma. I have had some good times in some of the surprisingly scenic areas. Also, Maker’s is my poison and who would ever
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Burnt Orange Wookiee commented on the blog post Bienvenidos a Miami: Heat Preview 4 hours, 41 minutes ago
The emergence of RJ being what we thought he would be seems pretty big. Oh, and that Ginobili guy is playing pretty good right now. Seeing Manu be Manu always brings a smile to my face.
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Blake Stansbery wrote a new blog post: Arkansas Razorback Football’s Top Six Impact Freshman for 2010 5 hours, 8 minutes ago
The Arkansas Razorbacks’ 2010 signing class did a good job of filling areas of need and adding size, speed, and talent to Bobby Petrino’s roster.
The major recruiting services did not rank the Hogs among the top 25 recruiting classes, while the Max Emfinger and Tom Lemmings of the recruiting world did think more highly
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Ibas water bottle commented on the blog post All Signs Point to March Madness Expanding to 96 Teams 5 hours, 10 minutes ago
Somewhere in rehab Sean Sutton is pissed this didn’t happen 4 years ago.
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Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Bracket Analysis: The Beasts of the East 5 hours, 28 minutes ago
If the South is a region of guards, the East is a region of men. Large men, that play an old school, physical brand of basketball. Guys like Demarcus Cousins, Kevin Jones, Damion James, Trevor Booker, and Al-Farouq Aminu, put the power in power forward.
These guys rebound above the rim and
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J Rog wrote a new blog post: Reggie Miller is a Bad Man 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
If you haven’t yet, I highly recommend watching ESPN’s latest 30 for 30: Winning Time about the Indiana Pacer’sReggie Miller’s rivalry with the New York Knicks in the early 90’s. Anyone that can make Spike Lee look stupid is a friend of mine.
The things that Reggie did to John Starks in those playoff series are
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Nordberg commented on the blog post Texas finishes sweep of Iowa 6 hours, 6 minutes ago
Green and then Workman I’d imagine.
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J Rog wrote a new blog post: Bienvenidos a Miami: Heat Preview 6 hours, 13 minutes ago
If we can score, we have a chance. The Heat are a poor team in a mediocre conference this year and don’t come with a lot of fire power. The one thing they can do is play defense, holding teams to 95.2 points per game, 5th best in the NBA. Dorrell Wright returns from a
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Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Things To Do While Not Watching OU in the NCAA Tourney 6 hours, 21 minutes ago
coloradoag:
First of all, I’ve very seriously thought your proposal #9 over. See: Calipari, John. People don’t seem to care if you buy basketball players. Only if you do it blatantly (USC) or you call/text them too much.
Oklahoma (outside of Oklahoma City and Tulsa metropolitan areas) is a lot of fun if you’re
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 6 hours, 22 minutes ago
Ha ha ha ha! It’s Joel Osteen’s world. You just live in it.
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admin commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 6 hours, 22 minutes ago
Ha ha ha ha! It’s Joel Osteen’s world. You just livesin in it.
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admin commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 6 hours, 22 minutes ago
Ha ha ha ha! It’s Joel Osteen’s world. You just live sin in it.
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ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Beat the Barkers NCAA Tourney Bracket 6 hours, 29 minutes ago
I will own that tote bag. And it will hold my porn.
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James commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 6 hours, 44 minutes ago
Baylor has the horses to make it to Indy, but Scott Drew is the Mike Gundy of college hoops. He’ll find a way to blow it.
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HenryJames commented on the blog post Robinson can, no? 7 hours, 19 minutes ago
Yes, it sounds like he is planning on hitting Texeira third.
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Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 7 hours, 31 minutes ago
“And I can understand the Longhorn fan thinking mighty Baylor goes all the way. After they bitch slapped the Horns three times this year, they are the basketball equivilent of the three foot long rat my wife saw in the garage.”
I actually like Baylor based on how they played Kansas and to an extent KSU.
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Ag_in_TX commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The South is a Bear of a Bracket 7 hours, 38 minutes ago
Of course not.
Here is another bold claim – all 7 Big XII teams bolt out the gate and win their first round games.
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Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The Wild West Regional 7 hours, 45 minutes ago
Work, I love Xavier. Really athletic team that feeds off of mismatches that superstar guard Jordan Crawford creates. Hell, he’s good enough to carry X past Minnesota and even Pitt if he’s hot.
The problem for XU is that they don’t defend as well as they have in the past. They’ll have
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t1climb1 said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:44 am
I just won our league’s championship with the “total shot in the dark” methodology. You should try it sometime. While the other guys in my league were pouring over their sheets which represented countless hours of research, I got drunk and pulled names of a list when it came my turn.
dedfischer said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 8:51 am
At the end of the day, I think that’s all it really was. Another list. Here’s some things I think:
The Future
1. Turner
2. D. Williams
3. Peterson
4. Forte
5. C. Johnson
The Past
1. LT
2. Portis
3. Westbrook
4. LJ
5. Addai
Those first group of guys look a lot faster, and everyone else is starting to wear down.
Bl33d said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:23 am
I had the first pick again, and instead of taking LT like everyone said, I took Tom Brady. He had the highest average score last year.
Great pick huh?
I finished in the bottom 3.
t1climb1 said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:25 am
Bl33d,
Had you listened to “everybody” you would not have faired much better.
Turkey Sub said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 9:30 am
I too won my fantasy league here in the office and netted myself a handy little 300 bucks just in time for the holidays. Not bad for my first delve into fantasy land. My advice and what I learned from all this. Don’t panic! Don’t get caught up in who drafted last years studs. Pay attention to the available free agents from week to week, and espn.com’s fantasy page. There are a lot of capable guys who fly under the radar all year, guys get hurt and backups step up. I’ll admit luck is a huge factor but for example you gotta know when Willie Parker’s out and who’s getting his carries. Shit like that is huge.
Biggest f’ups.
1. Carson Palmer (paid 57 bucks in an auction league with a cap of $200..ouch!)
2. Tory Holt (paid 27 bucks for this turd..horrible, horrible season for everyone in St. Louis)
3. Nate Burleson (because I ovepaid for Palmer he was my second WR to start the season)
4. I had Deangelo Williams on my bench all year and waived him right before he started to go off
Clutch performers
1. Brian Westbrook and Marion Barber (Westbrook was hurt his fair share but when he was healthy..damn.. the guy carried me with some 35+ pointers down the stretch)
2. Aaron Rodgers ( I traded Matt Forte and Carson Palmer for Aaron Rodgers and Santonio Holmes.. Holmes was disappointing for the most part but Rodgers was steady all year.
3. Free agents (Mewelde Moore when Willie Parker went down, Correll Buckhalter when Westbrook went down, Kevin Smith, Antonio Bryant, Derrick Mason, Muhsin Muhammed, Peyton Hillis etc. All these guys started for me at some point in the season.
bob said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 10:00 am
I’ve lost in the semis two of the last three years with a total margin of 2 points. Because I’m a masochist I also know that I would have crushed my opponents in the finals had I not lost the week before.
The worst part is winning our league gets you north of $2k.
Turkey Sub said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 10:14 am
$2k?! Ouch! The guy I played in the semi’s had a season low 63 pts when I beat him. This week it tallied his points and he had 158. So luck does play a huge part in fantasy football. I’m definitely hooked. I have never had more fun watching the NFL.
mws said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Made it to the championship game in my league for the first time in 10 years with Eli, Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Hines Ward, Vincent Jackson and Tony Gonzalez.
Below avg performance by Eli, Turner and Peterson did not help going up against Brandon Jacobs and DeAngelo Williams. Also, the bullshit 80 yard touchdown by Larry Fitzgerald from Leinart really fucked me.
Mysterious Package said:
December 22nd, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Made the playoffs and finished third with a lucky pick up on Matt Ryan. Kellen Winslow was awsome for pure entertainment. One week he gets hospitalized for undisclosed illness, the next he is benched for undisclosed reasons. Then he is suspended for a game. I kept him the entire season and he probaly cost me but whatever.
huge said:
December 23rd, 2008 at 8:07 am
also future: Slaton