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Thoughts on OU/Florida

Posted by TaylorTRoom on December 18th, 2008 under Football

My hatred for OU grows hotter every day. The nation seems to have bought into Stoops’ suggestion that their loss to Texas was insignificant, an example of a superior team overlooking an opponent playing over its head- kind of like Florida slipping up against Ol’ Miss in the Swamp, or USC forgetting to wake up against Oregon State until it was too late. As we know, and the Sooners know- that was no upset. Both teams came in focused, with well-prepared game plans and intensities at season highs.

 

UT whipped them. The most notable thing about OU is their record-setting offense, and UT held it to a season low 35 points, only 14 of which came in the 2nd half as UT wrested control of the game. If the ref isn’t faked out by OU’s punter feigning contact, OU would have been scoreless for the last 25 minutes of the game. OU has given up 11 sacks the entire season- UT got 3 of them. Bradford has thrown only 6 interceptions the entire season, and Texas snagged two of them. OU has lost the ball on downs 9 times the entire season; three of those were against Texas. This was no upset.

 

One of the biggest mistakes fans make in evaluations is putting too much stock into lessons learned from just one game. It’s a mistake for Texas fans to conclude that OU is grossly over-rated. They’re not, and claiming so makes you sound like the Texas Tech fan arguing that the Raiders “proved” the Horns were unimpressive on November 1. OU has an amazingly productive offense. Others can break down the details better than me. I think there is a lot to learn in the macro numbers.

 

For the season, OU has scored 102 times of the 163 times its offense has had the ball (not counting defense or special teams scores), mostly TDs (tip o’ the hat to the OU stats page and its drive charts). In first halves, they have scored 64 times out of 96 (66.7%), and 38 out of 67 times (56.7%) in the 2nd half. In other words, they seem to shift the offense down in the 2nd half. They use more clock (more running plays? Shorter routes?), and score less often. This is what would be expected of any team that usually has a sizable lead in the 2nd half.

 

Things were different in the season’s last three games (TT, OSU, and Mizzou), as they tried to gain votes subjectively in the BCS. This was when Stoops realized that he was going to have to make up in the artistic judging what he lost in the technical judging, and so decided to throw some more sequins on the OU coaches’ Dri-Fit polo, put some more glitter on his cheeks, and go for the gold.  In those games, their offense was more magnificent than ever in the 1st half, scoring 75% of the time (15 out of 20). In the 2nd half, they scored 14 times out of 16 (88.8%). Wow. They didn’t exactly let the gas pedal up. The evidence suggests that in the last three games, with the whole nation watching and judging, Stoops ran the same offense in the 2nd half as in the first. Only one of those games (OSU) was undecided at the start of the 2nd half.  In comparison,  Texas was like the ice dancers from China, obviously wearing some off-the-rack costume.

 

How does that compare to the season’s first ten games? In those, OU scored 73 times out of 127 overall (57.5%), 49 times out of 76 in the 1st half (64.5%), and 24 out of 51 times in 2nd halves (47.1%). Again, the contrast with the last three games’ output shows OU had a purpose in the 2nd half of their last three games- make an impression on the judges. Note- I recognize that one of those games was against Texas, where presumably they were trying their hardest to score until the end.

 

OU’s offense is far superior to its defense. UT showed a blueprint in how to beat them. You have to treat every OU possession as a war. Every time they punt, miss a field goal, or turn the ball over is a victory. If you can make them do that half the time, while being productive on offense, you’re in the game. If you can hold them to less than that, and can score, you’ll probably win. Two teams have been able to do that defensively against OU this season – UT (OU scored on 5 of 12 possessions), and TCU (OU scored on 5 of 15 possessions), and of course Texas was able to win. Against all other teams, OU scored on 92 out of 136 possessions.

 

Turnovers are crucial. Texas never turned the ball over against the Sooners. A turnover represents another opportunity for OU to score (they average over 4 points per possession), and one less opportunity for you to score against their weakest unit. OU rarely turns the ball over themselves. TCU turned the ball over 3 times out of the 8 1st half possessions, and wasted a good defensive effort. They trailed 28 – 3 at the half, and couldn’t get back in the game.

 

Can Florida do it? Sure. I suspect Big 12 stats are skewed to present better offenses than actually exist and poorer defenses than actually exist. Per the stats, Florida has a better defense than UT, but I suspect they’re closer than appears at first glance. Florida is #9 in the nation in yardage defense (279.3 ypg). UT led the Big 12, but is only 50th nationwide with 339.9 ypg. OU, for comparison, allows 359.0 ypg (65th). In scoring defense, Florida is 5th (12.8 ppg), while UT is 20th (18.6 ppg), and OU is 57th (!), allowing 24.5 ppg). Florida seems like they should have a defense capable of making a few stops. Meanwhile, their offense is not quite as productive as OU’s record setters, but may be better in a game not officiated by Big 12 refs (i.e. holding may be regulated in a traditional manner). They are 3rd in the nation in scoring, at 45.3 ppg.

 

How good is Florida at protecting the ball? They aren’t as good as OU, which is 1st in the nation at + 1.77 TOs/game. They are actually 2nd, at + 1.69 TOs/game. This is a stat that measures how good you are at taking the ball away as well as at protecting it. Ball security/hawking will be a crucial part of this game.

 

Frankly, if both teams bring their “A” game, I expect Florida to win. The formula can be the same as Texas’ – be productive on offense, and stop them 50% of the time on defense. Every stop is a victory, no matter where on the field it happens. Protect the ball, and look for opportunities on special teams. Florida needs to understand that if OU scores 2 TDs in their first 5 possessions (exceeding Florida’s average for scoring defense), and have 200 yards of offense, the Gators don’t necessarily need to change things on defense. They may be doing just fine. The OU formula for winning involves scoring over 10 points each quarter. Points are the key metric for defensive effectiveness, not yards. Conversely, if Florida has 2 TDs or less in the first half, they need to review what they’re doing on offense because that’s not getting it done.

 

What does OU need to do? They need to play defense like they haven’t yet this season…unless you think what they did against Tech will work against the Gators (I don’t). They need to force mistakes. If they can do that, and their offense can produce like normal, they have a chance. If they ever get three TDs up on Florida, the game may be over because then OU will be able to get very comfortable on offense while Florida will have to start trying to score quickly.

 Obviously Separated at Birth

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41 Responses

  1. EyesOfTX said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 5:28 am

    Florida should kill OU. Obviously, there’s always a chance Tebow could have an off day, but the reality of this matchup is that OU doesn’t match up. Add to that the losses of Murray and other key starters by OU, and this game could really get out of hand in the 2nd half. Kind of like our game with OU did.

  2. Brian Combs said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 5:45 am

    I want Florida to win by nine points. But I wouldn’t be sad if they pummeled OU by four touchdowns.

  3. DrkBgrk said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 5:48 am

    this game is an opportunity for florida to prove to me that they deserved to be in that game instead of texas, since i believe there are two teams in that game less deserving than texas, and no that is not based on any rational analysis, just feelin’ my grumpy homerism today.

    I haven’t watched much florida football this season, but what i have seen does not instill in me the confidence so many other longhorns seem to have that florida will give ou what they deserve and show all those stupid computers and coaches how stupid they were to pick the sparkly, ice-dancin’ dirt-burglars.

    Also i have no faith in officials to call holding, so there is another opportunity for someone to change my worldview during the game. Here’s hoping this game blows my mind wide open.

    (also hoping for interceptions, cause it would be funny)

  4. Big 12 Officials said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 6:33 am

    What do you mean by “holding”?

  5. Fistfull of Orakpo's Jersey said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 6:43 am

    I have no idea

  6. The General said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 6:44 am

    I think this game is as hard to predict accurately as any game in a long time. Florida’s defense has never seen an offense that is like OU’s conceptually or talent-wise. OU’s defense has never seen a spread attack that is run like Florida’s.

    The wild card is Florida’s outstanding special teams against OU’s abysmal kick coverage. I fully expect UF to score or set up two touchdowns on special teams.

  7. TaylorTRoom said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 6:57 am

    I don’t know. OU has given up some long returns, but mostly on kickoffs (they don’t punt very often, and they kick off a lot). Hopefully OU isn’t kicking off much against Florida.

    BTW, OU’s last 10 pass attempts against Texas?
    1 sack, 9 attempts, 3 completions, 54 yards, no TDs, and one pick. Texas really had that offense shut down by the end of the game.

  8. dick said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 7:10 am

    I wouldn’t mind someone breaking down the details of the Florida defense schematically and personnel wise. I’ve seen them play plenty and think they will hold up fine against OU’s O. Their D doesn’t look too different from ours on the field, lots of pressure from Cunningham and LBs, good tackling but they get INTs.

  9. Stuck in MN said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 8:00 am

    Since this game will be called by a ref crew from a neutral league (i.e. not a crew with an edict from the league commissioner to ignore holding), Bradford may get an unreal amount of unreal pressure for which he is unreally prepared.

  10. uthookem said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 8:33 am

    I thought UF would likely beat us, so I think they will kick the crap out of ou. I sure hope they do…in my confidence pool, I have 34 on us beating OSU, and 33 on UF beating OU…so at least I’m giving OU one more chance to screw me this season.

    Hook ‘em!

  11. HenryJames said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 8:43 am

    Since this game will be called by a ref crew from a neutral league (i.e. not a crew with an edict from the league commissioner to ignore holding), Bradford may get an unreal amount of unreal pressure for which he is unreally prepared.

    O unrly?

  12. cfbfan55 said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 9:10 am

    Nice synopsis, thank you. Regarding your comment on Florida’s edge rush in the BCS Champ. game. I notice from NCAA stats that sacks are 1.TX 2.TCU 3.OK…33.FL., in TFLs 10.OK 11.TCU 15. TX…85.FL. I think FL rushers may be a handful, but I don’t see the production. Your thoughts?

  13. Colored glasses said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 12:06 pm

    Come on man, those stats are meaningless – look at the offenses Florida has been facing all year in the SEC…absolute juggernauts – OU has no chance.

    After all UT “whipped” OU – I mean they led the game for 8 minutes…

  14. HenryGaymes said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 12:09 pm

    That was an important 8 minutes, no?

  15. TaylorTRoom said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 12:22 pm

    It will be interesting to see how Florida responds when OU moves the ball on them and even scores. They are used to different, more conservative SEC offenses. This will take them out of their comfort zone. Will they respond by digging deeper, or by freaking and over-reacting.

    I looked in depth at the Texas/OU game. I’m sure the OU coaches will review the Ole Miss game with Florida. The thing that jumps out at you is that Florida didn’t protect the ball. They uncharacteristically fumbled 5 times, and lost 3.

  16. TaylorTRoom said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    That “Texas only led for eight minutes” argument…I’ve heard that on the local pro-OU sports radio. I was at the game. You probably watched it. When Texas took the lead, OU tried like hell to get it back, and couldn’t get the ball farther than the UT 39 in three possessions.

    If you look at what OU did on offense (remember, this is the record setter, playing their 6th game of the season) after Texas got the lead: 3 rushes for 3 yards ( a Bradford scramble for 7 and a sack for -5 included). Bradford got off 11 pass attempts, and completed 3 for 54 yards, with no TDs and 1 pick.

    If you want to look at that, and say UT just got lucky and happened to be ahead in a seesaw game when the time ran out, go ahead. You’re wrong, though.

  17. Dunstan Pearl said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    Come bust a move where the games are played
    It’s chill, it’s fresh, it’s Noah’s Arcade

  18. dick said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    Is OU’s offense that much different than Georgia’s talent wise? I don’t really want to hear nonsense about 60 pt games as a basis. OU doesn’t run a really tricked up offense either. OU’s is def has a few more tricks and a better Oline, which maybe that’s the real difference (and a big one). I hate stafford but some think that he and Bradford are about the same caliber talent wise based on mock drafts.

  19. Seriously said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 2:29 pm

    Is OU’s offense that much different than Georgia’s talent wise?

    Is that a serious question?

  20. Deja Vu said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 2:30 pm

    Best case scenario: UF 45 OU 35

  21. go tu said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    Yawn. You people still here? Shouldn’t you be typing up the paperwork to deliver to the U.S. capitol to announce your state’s secession? Or would that use up precious time better spent pulling your pud while look at posters of nubile young Texas boys in their tight football pants?

  22. Nordberg said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    You say that like pulling your pud while looking at posters of nubile young Texas boys in their tight football pants is a bad thing. Now if you’ll excuse me, I have to head next door to CopyMax to blow up this picture of Garrett Gilbert.

  23. dusk till dawn said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 5:52 pm

    i, for one, had to google garrett gilbert. he broke Graham Harrell’s record for most passing yards in a season. pretty impressive

  24. uthookem said:

    December 18th, 2008 at 5:54 pm

    Go ahead and run one for me nordberg…and see if you can get Chris Whaley in it, too!

  25. Vaughn said:

    December 19th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

    Whaa whaa whaa whaa. So much bellyaching. So much whinng. You don’t hear too much of that when OU takes it up the kazoo in Oregon. I could go on, but why. We have one heck of a game coming up. Enjoy. Crybabies.

  26. Minnesotahorn said:

    December 19th, 2008 at 1:13 pm

    “You don’t hear too much of that when OU takes it up the kazoo in Oregon.”

    That’s awesome. You mean the instance where THE FUCKING UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT interjected himself into a dispute over an on field judgment call? I agree. Completely appropriate and dignified response on y’all’s part, refraining from gubernatorial intervention and all.

  27. Facebook User said:

    December 19th, 2008 at 1:26 pm

    Dear Commissioner Weiberg:

    To describe the lapses in accurate officiating at the Oklahoma-Oregon football game last Saturday as constituting an outrageous injustice is an understatement. Since officiating is a conference responsibility as opposed to an individual institutional responsibility, we must look to you to launch a vigorous, and I mean vigorous, effort to correct the situation. On behalf of the University of Oklahoma, I ask that you as Big 12 Commissioner take the following actions:

    1) Seek an apology from the PAC-10 Conference for the gross errors in officiating. I would ask for an apology from the officials themselves, but I don’t want to bog them down. The officials will be busy working out for item #2.

    2) Ensure that every official at the OU/UO game poses in the PAC-10 playgirl issue, and I think it should be a given, that I should get a personalized autographed copy. The officials screwed us, but at least I can dream of screwing them.

    3) It is my understanding that the PAC-10 has a rule that they will only use PAC-10 officials at games with other conference institutions hosted by PAC-10 members. In light of what happened Saturday, I think that OU should be at least allowed to appoint a time keeper, much like the OU/Texas Tech basketball game two years ago.

    4) The Big should request that the game should not go into the record books as a win or a loss by either team in light of the officiating mistakes. However, I do feel that it is prudent that Adrian Peterson gets credit for all of his statistical categories. Hell, we are forcing him to return kick-offs, to boost his all-purpose yards, in hopes that he can win the Hiesman. In fact, I would also like for you to retroactively award Tommie Harris and Rocky Calmus with 10 tackles and 4 sacks, distributed as you see fit.

    5) For my personal pain and suffering, due to this extreme injustice, I should be granted 10 Oregon slaves, all young virgin men, who have good “quacking” vocal cords.

    Since the University of Oklahoma and its officials are required by conference sportsmanship rules to limit their comments in situations like this, we must look to you as the commissioner of the Big 12 Conference to vigorously, and I mean vigorously, demand that our teams be treated fairly when participating in non-conference games. It is truly sad and deeply disappointing that the members of our football team should be deprived of the outcome of the game that they deserved because they couldn’t kick a field goal, um, I mean because of the an inexcusable breakdown in officiating.

    Sincerely,
    David L. Boren

  28. Gus said:

    December 22nd, 2008 at 11:17 am

    It’s hilarious to read Longhorn fans gripe about the lack of holding calls. I went to the KU game in Lawrence, and while no fan of KU, I saw at least 3 blatant holds and a couple of no calls for pass interference in Texas’ favor. Not that all of them put together would have made a difference in the outcome, I didn’t hear any Longhorn fans talk about officiating errors when they worked in Texas’ favor.

  29. HenryJames said:

    December 22nd, 2008 at 11:28 am

    Sure you did.

  30. NateHeupel said:

    December 23rd, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    HJ, I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. It is my belief that UT fans are so used to ref crews being grossly biased in UT’s favor that an evenly called game come off to even the most level-headed UT fan as unfair. Ask Mangiant or Mike the Pirate about this.
    If you think JaMarcus McFarland’s parents got a good deal from OU, wait until you see what Randy Christal and Dana Bible get per annum from UT. (half-joking)

    Back on topic:
    I think UT and TCU are far better pass rushing teams than Florida. Just getting pressure on Sam Bradford isn’t the magic solution. Forcing OU to be one-dimensional while getting that pressure is the solution.
    UT’s late success against the OU offense was because UT shut down the run and made OU one dimensional. OU only had one choice, and UT knew exactly what it was. While I would argue that DeMarco Murray’s confidence in his knee was a rather huge factor in this regard, the comparison is relevant here because Murray is out against Florida.

    On the one hand, the quality of QB play in the SEC is abysmal by QB’s not named Tim Tebow. The offenses not named Florida are even worse.

    On the other hand, the best defensive performance against OU this year by a Big 12 team was UT, and they still gave up 35 points and 400+ yards.

    The UT offense only put up 38 points on OU. Shipley’s return TD was the difference between OU throwing a meaningless hail mary that Earl Thomas would catch in the back of the end zone, and OU throwing for field position to kick a game tying FG. The same could be true against Florida.

    I’m betting against OU until I see a Venables defense come out in a bowl game looking even remotely competent.

    Florida by 7.

  31. NateHeupel Jr. said:

    December 23rd, 2008 at 2:52 pm

    Good pick dad!! Hope that you are right. OU was dead at the end of the game. If the game went another quarter they score would have been 65-42 or something like that.

  32. Trips Right said:

    December 23rd, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    Nate, you’re nuts. If you think John Bible gives the University special treatment, you haven’t talked to Augie Garrido or Coach Gustafson.

    Take away the bs roughing the punter call and Texas shuts the sooners out the last 25 minutes of the ballgame. Add in the pick six Earl Thomas should have had on the first drive and Texas wins by 21. Call offensive pass interference on the two tunnel screens where your receiver illegally was across the los on the catch and we win by 28. Yes, 45-17 sounds about right.

  33. NateHeupel II said:

    December 23rd, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    HJ, I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again:

    Round Rock is INCREDIBLE.

  34. ponderos said:

    December 23rd, 2008 at 4:27 pm

    Trips. If you want those calls, then OU wants two phantom personal fouls on the sidelines and the disallowed INT in the endzone back. It goes both ways and your team won, so I’m not sure why you’re bitching.

  35. Facebook User said:

    December 23rd, 2008 at 4:29 pm

    Has to do with style points, ponderos. You know about those, right?

  36. Trips Right said:

    December 27th, 2008 at 4:22 pm

    ponderos, the phantom personal fouls netted Texas 3 points. The incompletion in the back of the endzone was the correct call unless you’re a chimp.

  37. Bob in Houston said:

    December 27th, 2008 at 5:10 pm

    Each of the personal fouls on McCoy came on a drive that ended in a field goal…

    Yes, the officiating was not good, and probably equally not good.

  38. blutroniq said:

    January 2nd, 2009 at 11:21 pm

    Nate Sr has it right… shutting down the OU run was the key to winning. The other key (and this is big) is that OU is play-from-ahead team. They aren’t used to having to come from behind… get Bob and Sammy a little panicky and soon they’ll both be wishing it was next season, where both will be in the NFL.

  39. oufunner777 said:

    January 4th, 2009 at 10:30 am

    You guys are funny! TU whines, FU brags, and you really believe you know how this game will turn out. Obviously none of you have ever played the game, and you don’t understand what a difference a month off makes to football teams. Anything can happen on Thursday night, and it’s only a fool who would predict certain victory! I love it when everyone picks against ou. You couldn’t give the team more to play for. This is why the play the game instead of just let you vote!

  40. t1climb1 said:

    January 4th, 2009 at 10:42 am

    oufunner,

    Please tell me you see the irony in your last sentence.

    And for the record I agree about your game. I really have no idea on this one.

  41. Palmettohorn said:

    January 7th, 2009 at 6:01 pm

    oufunner,

    You mean that’s why they let yOU play in the game because they let you vote.

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  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post March Madness Open thread   1 hour, 42 minutes ago

    Wow, my East bracket plays according to seed in the first round.

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  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post March Madness Open thread   1 hour, 43 minutes ago

    Just entered my brackets on directv’s bracket feature. I love this directv thing.

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  • Triston27 commented on the blog post Big Dance: Day One   2 hours, 2 minutes ago

    In one of my brackets I have Washington getting to the sweet 16. Not because I’m such a believer in them, but I like the hot streak they’re on.

    Anyone else have issues with cbssports this morning? Damn near gave me a panic attack when I logged on to review some of my money

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  • Ballerjunkie commented on the blog post Weekly Whispers 3/17/2010: Duke and Kentucky Do the Chomping   2 hours, 16 minutes ago

    Triston. I doubt if it takes Kentucky off of Selby’s list. But while Wall and Bledsoe played well together, how would Knight, Selby, and Bledsoe play together? Kansas could be a very strong possibility for Selby.

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  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: March Madness Open thread   2 hours, 23 minutes ago

    All are welcome. Especially upsets of the double-digit seed variety.

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  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Tournament Wagering? You Betcha   2 hours, 24 minutes ago

    It’s Christmas morning for hoops fans. Nothing goes with the opening round of the Madness like some well thought out wagering. As always, on the college basketball front, we’re here to help.

    For you wagering needs, I’d like to call your attention to our sister sites which can help you win a

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  • Hiphopopotamus wrote a new blog post: Big Dance: Day One   2 hours, 25 minutes ago

    It’s here. And it needs no introduction, so let’s get to it.

    Lunch tips

    7) BYU v. 10) Florida – As most do, I’ve got the Cougs here. One, because I love cougars. And two, because Florida probably shouldn’t even be in the field. I don’t expect much defense in this one, on either end,

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