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Revisiting the defensive stats that matter

Posted by HenryJames on November 27th, 2008 under Football

Back in September I made a post about the defensive stats that mattered to the Texas coaches. It caused an immediate sensation. And by ‘immediate sensation’ I mean a blogger from Missouri liked it.

I knew the Texas defense was better than it was a year ago, but the defensive stats had not borne that out yet. I knew it was just a matter of time before they did though.

So let’s revisit the stats.

Team YPA 3rd Down % Red Zone % Points
2007 6.98 38.9% 77.7% 25.3
2008 6.79 35.7% 71% 19.5

Improvement across the board, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. The quality of competition we’ve faced this year is a lot better than what we faced last year. In 2007 we faced four teams that were ranked in the Top 30 in both scoring and total offense: OU, Tech, OSU and Nebraska. This year we’ve faced five teams that are ranked in the Top 10 in both categories (OU, Tech, Missouri, OSU and Rice) and two more ranked in the Top 30 in both (UTEP and Kansas).

So we’ll first look at how the 2007 defense did against ‘good’ offensive teams. In each statistical column is what the Texas defense gave up, and in parentheses is what the opponent averaged for the year. The average percentage at the bottom is what the Texas defense gave up on average against the opponents season average.

Team YPA 3rd Down % Red Zone % Points
Oklahoma 7.6 (9.01) 50 (49.2) 100 (88) 28 (42.29)
Nebraska 8.3 (8.08) 35.3 (42.7) 100 (90) 25 (33.42)
Oklahoma State 10.2 (8.19) 55.5 (47.5) 75 (87) 28 (34.62)
Texas Tech 9.7 (8.01) 42.8 (46.7) 80 (83) 43 (40.92)
Average % 107.5 98.6 102 82

Average to below average in every category except points.

Now we’ll look at how this year’s team has done against ‘good’ offensive teams.

Team YPA 3rd Down % Red Zone % Points
UTEP 5.8 (7.61) 41.2 (42) 50 (83) 13 (34)
Rice 6.3 (8.31) 14.3 (48.6) 66.7 (87) 10 (40.27)
Oklahoma 9.4 (10.13) 46.6 (47.3) 100 (94) 35 (52.64)
Missouri 7.8 (8.83) 50 (53) 83.3 (88) 31 (45.73)
Oklahoma St 7.4 (10.22) 41.2 (46.5) 100 (90) 24 (41.64)
Texas Tech 8.9 (8.48) 50 (53.2) 83.3 (86) 30 (45.45)
Kansas 5.2 (7.88) 37.5 (48.4) 50 (85) 7 (32)
Average % 82.6 82.8 87 51.4

Above average in every category and we did fucking outstanding in points allowed.

The defense hasn’t reached the goals that Muschamp has set for them yet, but they are certainly playing a lot better than they did last year.

Thoughts?

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17 Responses

  1. BrickHorn said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 7:17 am

    Nice post. I have a couple of suggestions for improvement, however: (1) the chart could use even more unexplained parentheticals and (2) I like that percentage values appear out of nowhere, but it might be more helpful to give these values in decibel units, expressed in Roman numerals.

    kthxbye!

  2. Trips Right said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 7:24 am

    Good post and certainly very encouraging. Those numbers should improve now that we’ll finally have a defensive system building on itself year after year. Self scouting and tendencies will replace defensive hobgoblins busted coverage and missed assignment. I’m okay with that.

  3. beowulf said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 8:43 am

    This is when you are at your best. Offering up facts and stats. Along with your peerless C&P ability you are the master of the hard truth.

    It’s only when you get into commentary, personal observations, and opinions that you suffer embarrassing moments. Or when you become “witty.”

    Anyway, good job,and I like the 30 points you gave Tech. That’s what the defense gave up.

    Texas is going to play balls to the walls defense for many many years now.

  4. BrickHorn said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 8:59 am

    Thanks for adding the explanation. I figured that’s what you meant.

    Anyway, like I said, nice post. I’d like to see a similar analysis for the offense. My biggest issue with GD over the years has been his team’s underperformance against top defenses. I get the sense that the Horns don’t have that problem this season.

  5. lawdog13 said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 10:23 am

    Damn nice job illuminating what we’ve all sensed. Thanks for your efforts on this.

  6. p said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    I have been talking about this all year. The great part is we are able to improve this much, and we aren’t even close to the ceiling.

    For a quick example, imagine how much better these numbers would be if we could have held on to the gazillion interceptions we had our hands on. I can think of at least 1 game that would be 7 points less.

  7. exuLt said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

    I saw what you did there. If you take out the 3 weaker sister teams you added to this year’s tabulation to skew the results relative to last year, you get the following Average %s for 2008:

    89% 93.9% 97.7% 64.7%

    So even though category results are better than last year across the board, you can argue that 3rd down and red zone %s are still banging around statistical average, with YPA showing moderate statistical inprovement, and Points Allowed the telling Muschamp statistic for this year’s defense’s performance, with significant decrease against opposing team ppg average and improvement over last year’s results.

  8. Parlin Hall said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 4:01 pm

    Good post, but the stats prompt a question:

    Why doesn’t Doperbo write more?

    I’ll hang up and listen for your response off the air.

  9. HenryJames said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 4:03 pm

    The ‘3 weaker sister teams’ I added are all ranked in the Top 30 in both total offense and scoring. One of them is ranked in the Top 10 in both.

  10. exuLt said:

    November 27th, 2008 at 5:14 pm

    Yeah, this year’s defense is stout, alright, in absolute terms, but for a valid pre/post Muschamp comparison with last year’s team, you need the data bases to be as similar as you can make it, ±revolving/evolving players.

  11. Huckleberry said:

    November 28th, 2008 at 5:35 am

    As all good Barking Carnival fans know, my power ratings’ defense number is based on how many points you prevent your opponents from scoring on average. Although I won’t upload the new ratings until after Saturday’s games, after giving up only 9 last night to A&M, we are now #3 in the nation with a defense rating of 40.03; last year through the A&M game our defense rating was 28.46, which was good for #32 in the nation.

    One way of looking at that information is that last year’s defense would be expected to give up over 30 points per game against the schedule we’ve faced this year.

  12. Minnesotahorn said:

    November 28th, 2008 at 8:11 am

    ‘Who wants a Muschamp ride?’ is pure excellence.

  13. exuLt said:

    November 28th, 2008 at 8:35 am

    You know, thinking about last night’s A&M game and how style points are better defined by margin of victory instead of the more popularly perceived total points, one consequence of GD’s “controlled” east-west offense is that the opposing team has less time to be on the field to score, the defense is better rested, and total points for both teams is thusly skewed downward.

    Hence I think the better statistical pointers for defense power rankings are yards allowed and points allowed per offensive play. Team offenses with more time on the field have more opportunities to progress and score against the defense, so that teams that employ quick-strike schemes to score in fewer plays allow the opposing team more time on the field, more plays, etc. Defensive performance per offensive play basis then becomes the equalizer.

  14. CallKevin said:

    November 28th, 2008 at 9:35 am

    It’s worth noting that A&M was only held below 21 once this year, in their opener (14).

    Last year they were held to 7 by Tech in Lubbock.

    In 2004 they were held to 7 by Tennessee in the Cotton Bowl.

    So in 5 seasons, they’ve been held to single digits only three times–and last night was one. Doesn’t suck.

  15. horncasting said:

    November 28th, 2008 at 1:50 pm

    Serious question. If Akina were our DC again this year and our stats and record were exactly the same, would you have the same perception of our defense?

    I posted this on BON awhile back, but curious about the answer here.

    Personally, I think we’d all be hung up on the first level stats (total yards, passing yards), not going this deep into stats, and crucifying the defense.

  16. He Derso said:

    November 28th, 2008 at 7:57 pm

    I am an Aggie–what is this thing called “Defense” to which you keep referring?

  17. TaylorTRoom said:

    November 29th, 2008 at 5:27 am

    It’s funny to see that we aren’t meeting Muschamp’s goals on those metrics. With the regular season over, it’s obvious that Texas has the Big 12’s best defense. Pick your metric- yards allowed, points allowed, use all games or just league games…Texas has the best defense. That’s with us playing the league’s best offenses (OU, Tech, Mizzou, OSU, KU). Who would have expected that?

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