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BCS Analysis

Posted by Huckleberry on November 23rd, 2008 under Football

I’ll cut right to the chase. I now believe that my previous analysis of the computers was too rosy. While I stated that Tech as the wedge in Wolfe’s system was only possible and not certain, it now looks like there’s no way it will hold. Tech currently has a score of 9.889 with Baylor to play while Oklahoma is at 9.888 with Oklahoma State to play. So, under the previous assumption that Tech, Oklahoma, and Texas all win, it seems certain that Oklahoma will be only one spot behind Texas, not two.

The big surprise that I wasn’t prepared for was the huge gain that Oklahoma got in Sagarin’s ELO_Chess ratings. We are currently #1 in those ratings and Oklahoma is #4. However, we are only ahead by 1.21 points in that ratings set. Oklahoma is now at 92.32 after being at 87.47 before beating Tech. Oklahoma State, meanwhile, is #6 in the ratings at 87.07 while Texas A&M is 89th at 66.13 points. While I previously predicted that we would hold a one slot advantage over Oklahoma after next week’s games, it now seems highly probable that we will be faced with a one slot deficit instead. This is not good, of course.

So previously I predicted a BCS computer score of 0.94 for us and 0.92 for Oklahoma. The good news is that I now think our score will actually go up a hair to 0.95, but the really bad news is that Oklahoma’s computer score now looks to finish at 0.96 instead. We are faced with being behind in the computers after next week and I don’t see any way that the humans switch it around enough to help us out.

Simply put, we need a Texas Tech loss to Baylor, an Oklahoma loss to Oklahoma State, or an Oklahoma loss to Missouri.

Here’s a BCS Primer for those that need to review the basics.

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42 Responses

  1. Agreed.

    Barring a good number of voters changing their answers to the Texas or OU question next week (and it seems unlikely that even a close OU win @ OKST would cause many to do that), OU should edge out Texas as their gap in the computers closes.

    Cincy being upset by Syracuse would help though.

  2. zizzyballooba said:

    November 23rd, 2008 at 9:53 pm

    The BCS website has links to propaganda articles that support their agenda. They also have a “these people agree with us” post loaded with comments from national sports writers. Over and over they vomit the “You want a playoff? Every game of the regular season is a playoff!” BS.

    I’m repeating myself from a previous post, but this bears repetition. If the regular season is a playoff to the BCS, then when two teams are so close in the BCS analysis, a head-to head win during a “playoff” regular season should trump; otherwise their argument will be illogical (gasp).

    I could understand this quandry if all three teams UT, OU, & TT were in contention for the National Championship game under the BCS, but they are not. Only two of them are, and of those two (UT & OU), UT won the head-to-head and had the same record otherwise. Although some circular logic could come into play for the Big 12 South representative debate, I really couldn’t care less. Although it would be nice to win the Big 12, the prize is always the Sears Trophy (or whatever they are calling it these days) — you know, the big crystal football thingy.

  3. If you look at the AP voter details to get some clue as to what’s going on with the Coaches and Harris voters, there is an interesting piece of data. Significantly more voters have Texas ahead of OU than vice-versa. The tally is 37-28. OU is ahead because the pro-OU guys are much more likely to have Florida wedged in as a buffer; plus there are two complete idiots who have some combination of USC, Penn St., and Ohio State as buffers.

    So, if (a big if, I guess) that pattern holds true in the Harris and Coaches poll, a Florida loss (or perhaps even a Florida blowout win) has the potential to get us in front in the human polls.

    The Harris poll is probably fairly similar to the AP, but the Coaches poll is obviously screwy. In any event, though, it seems pretty clear that we need Florida out of the way as a wedge since that seems to be benefiting OU. Up or down really doesn’t matter, although down is the best way to totally clean them out.

    Not only that, but with Florida out of the way, this becomes even more of a Texas vs. OU head-to-head battle, which is good for us.

    The bad news, IMO, is that we’re sitting at #2 now in the BCS which will blunt a lot of our points since none of the casual observers will realize that we’re toast unless the humans change significantly.

  4. If we lose Florida as a wedge in the human polls, we’ll lose it as a wedge in the computer polls too. Close to a wash.

    This one is going to be very, very close.

  5. “This one is going to be very, very close.”

    Yep, and that is just what the four letter network wants. Remember, they don’t care who goes to the Big XII Championship game from the south, they just want it to be controversial.

    And it will be, unless a myriad of strange things happen.

  6. Aggie Lurking said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 6:00 am

    This year the Aggies are happy to provide the 2008 version of the old DKR TCU cockroach theory.
    (They’re like a bunch of cockroaches. It’s not what they eat and tote off, it’s what they fall into and mess up that hurts.”
    — Darrell Royal on TCU )
    Glad to be the millstone around your BCS ratings neck (since we can’t field a competitive team).
    Happy Thanksgiving!

  7. PatronSaint said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 6:05 am

    Good stuff, Mr. Horn. I need others to analyze because I don’t have the desire (read: capability) to do so.

    I do agree with your last paragraph, too. I was thinking about that problem yesterday.

  8. Levander Williams said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 6:14 am

    Well, the ags have to aspire to some basis of meaningful existence. Once again, however, it’s only observable through the lens of how it relates to UT.

  9. Of course, the Horns could hope for a Florida State win over Florida and then a Florida victory over Alabama.Could put Texas in the BCS
    title game against either Oklahoma ot maybe even Texas Tech!

  10. Woody Bombay said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 11:07 am

    None of these teams have even played yet and aTm already has its moral victory!

  11. Soldier of Orange said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 1:58 pm

    I was very surprised at the results of the Harris and coaches polls. I would have thought that of all people, coaches and former coaches would respect a judgment rendered on a neutral field in preference to the type of sophistry required to elevate OU above Texas.

  12. I’m also very surprised that dudes with phys ed degrees would fall for sophistry.

  13. Soldier of Orange said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 2:08 pm

    Yeah, I suppose you’re right, HJ. I should have taken into consideration Greg Davis’ on-going schemes to establish a running game before assuming that coaches would be impressed by what actually transpires on the field of play before their very eyes.

  14. I just don’t think that coaches typically watch a lot of other teams play during the season. Too busy with their own team.

  15. Parlin Hall said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    HJ–Pelini confirmed what you just said in the Big 12 coaches’ teleconference. He explained voting OU over UT as follows: ‘“I’ve played Oklahoma,” Pelini said. “I haven’t played Texas . . . you have vote to based on what you’ve seen.”’

    Apparently he didn’t realize he just took himself off Scipio’s Christmas-card list.

  16. Then why is Texas even in his poll? And why does his poll have more than 11 teams?

  17. Bob in Houston said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 3:42 pm

    He shouldn’t be voting. Really. You either try or tell them, no thanks.

  18. burnt orange dog said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 3:53 pm

    I just saw Stoops on ESPN making the arguement that they are the best team now, and that is why they should leap over us. This is obviously bening supported by the voters. Others crown them as the team “that nobody wants to play now”.

    Guess what. They were that same hot team in October. They had just beaten the crap out of TCU and Cincinatti. We were given no chance by any of these same talking heads, and then we beat the crap out of them on neutral field. How can this not be noticed. I think they were better in October than they are now.

  19. Bob in Houston said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 4:45 pm

    I wouldn’t say Texas removed all crap, given that it was a 10-point win. But they did win convincingly.

  20. flamingmonkeyass said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 5:30 pm

    Thank you burnt orange dog! The thing about this whole mess that is perhaps the most annoying for me is the idea being put forth by some pundits that ou deserves to be ranked ahead of us because they’re playing one of the best teams in the country “right now”. Have these same people forgotten that ou was ranked #1 in the country when we played them? The sooners weren’t exactly scrapping by their opponents on their way to the cotton bowl either. They blew the doors off of everyone they faced before they played us, and they blew the doors off of everyone they’ve played since they’ve played us. However, on a neutral field, the better team with the better coaching staff took ou’s best punches and still came out with a win. Again, ON A NEUTRAL FIELD. This is what kills me in this debate. We don’t have to wonder who’d win between the two teams. They’ve played. There was no home field advantage for either side. Texas won. The debate should be over. Anyone who thinks otherwise is either an ou fan or an idiot. But I repeat myself.

  21. Parlin Hall said:

    November 24th, 2008 at 5:56 pm

    Huck and Bob, you make good points.

    I provided a Pelini quote too short to do justice to the situation. Because NU played TT exactly the same time UT played OU, he didn’t see the game at the time (he probably saw film later). He did see a 3rd-rate Cornhusker team one play away from beating Tech in Lubbock, which is the position a much better Texas team was in.

    Three weeks later, he watched Stoops score 35 points on his squad in the first quarter on the way to a 62-28 beatdown that wasn’t ever close; here’s “Bo Pelini Not Happy”:

    I’m guessing when he said “I haven’t seen them,” he meant “I haven’t seen them commit felonious assault on my team in person.” This doesn’t excuse his vote but it helps explain it.

  22. This dude with ESPN.com gets it:

    On The Mark: Deciphering the Big 12 South

    That article should be required reading for all poll voters.

  23. I can’t argue with his article, but Schlabach is the guy that said that the Big 12 is effectively a joke compared to the SEC because we don’t play defense. Maybe he’s changed his tune, but his take at that time, when Texas was at the top and looked great, was absurd.

    One thing he gets that few reference is that we’re a pop-up choke job away from there being no debate. If Gideon mans up, it’s done.

  24. Apparently Muschamp took this head on at a recent Alum mtg in San Antonio.

    Someone asked, “When is Texas going to start playing like a SEC defense?” to which he responded “When we start playing SEC offenses.”

  25. That is a money quote from Muschamp.

    The only team that truly understands offenses in modern football, Florida, is the only team in the SEC that puts up huge numbers offensively. Perhaps that’s because they’re just that much more talented. Or perhaps teams like South Carolina (3rd best defense going into their game against the Gators) benefit from playing against OC’s who think the slot receiver is “just a fad”.

  26. In fairness to the SEC, they also graduated a class of good QBs last year. Guys like Ainge, Woodson, Flynn are all legit QBs and their replacements are utter dogshit. Not surprisingly, all of the SEC defense stats ticked up commensurately.

  27. Scip, do you think Muschamp ever wakes up in the middle of the night crying out “Venables? VENABLES????!?! How the hell did Venables hold Tech to 21?? HHHOOOOOWWWWW??!?!?!??!?!?

  28. Bob in Houston said:

    November 25th, 2008 at 7:34 am

    Easy… he got them at home.

    In ‘05, when Tech was ranked 10th and Texas second (that means Texas had a quality defense)… Texas won 52-17.

  29. shockthenation said:

    November 25th, 2008 at 7:42 am

    Tech is a little different animal on the road. Even Big Game Bob has managed to lose in Lubbock three times in his decade at OU.

  30. Well lets see, Muschamp held Tech to 30 despite playing on the road, without his best corner, and with an offense that didnt show up in the first half. Do you think Venables ever asks himself how he can be 1-2 against that scrawny howdy doody Texas QB? Or do you think he, and most OU coaches have come to to accept getting bent over by that widely renowned offensive genius, Greg Davis?

  31. That wasn’t a knock on Muschamp, fellas. Venables sucks. We all know it.

    Anonymous: I think OU losing its team captain on defense and only LB with any game experience prior to this year might have had something to do with Greg Davis’ genius, considering Greg Davis doubled his yards per play and point total in the half that the MLB was out. As for 2006, you think Paul “3 INTs” Thompson might’ve had anything to do with UT’s success? I do.

  32. Nate: It’s hard to imagine Reynolds being that pivotal. But if you say that he is, would you agree that OU would have no hope of stopping Texas in a rematch, and thus that Texas should be considered the stronger team right now? I mean he is out for the season right?

  33. Bob in Houston said:

    November 25th, 2008 at 11:22 am

    Texas not only missed its best corner, but also a starting receiver and all-league DE.

  34. Nate. Now you’re saying your own team’s coaches suck after they just throttled one of the best offenses in college football.

    Troll.

  35. ponderos:

    I know it’s hard for you to concieve of, but you have fellow Sooner fans who can look at the world with a critical eye: at Texas, at the league, and (gasp) even OU.

  36. By saying my team’s coaches suck? I’ll keep that one in-house.

  37. Yes, ponderos. Because none us noticed that Mike Stoops to Venables is a dropoff.

  38. Venables sucks?

    Nate turn in your Sooner fan membership card. -I guess shutting down the most prolific offense in college football with 3 dudes that had never played college linebacker before this year and a couple backups at DE constitutes bad coaching – What a douche statement

  39. Huck, there’s a couple guys who run a blog for the KC Star. One of the also writes for Baseball Prospectus (or maybe it’s just Basketball Prospectus). They’re both heavily stat oriented. Anyway, you’d be interested in the blog’s analysis of the computer polls.

    http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/198

  40. In the midst of watching Georgia blowing it vs GT, has anyone taken the time to realize how terrible the SEC is this yr. LSU just lost to Arkanasas and needed a miracle the wk before vs Troy. Georgia has been struggling. Its hard to give Alabama credit yet b/c their first real competition comes on the last game this yr vs. Florida….. Florida is getting WAY too much credit right now. If we played their schedule, we could easily put up the same same #’s… probably better…. It pisses me off how they have moved up so far and have gone passed us in the polls for beating nobody

  41. KH- I’ve been thinking the same thing for the past 4 weeks. Bama and FL are still unknown to me, but the rest of the SEC looks somewhere between OK and suck. There are 5 teams in the SEC that Baylor would beat.

  42. BY OK, I meant average…not Oklahoma. Sorry.

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    Now Baylor talking trash to the #14 seed players. Seriously?

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