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Scouting Kansas

Posted by Scipio Tex on November 12th, 2008 under Football

Kansas is a must-win, not only for maintaining hopes of a Big 12 Title, BCS bowl, or improbable MNC berth, but to halt the development of a pattern of November choke jobs that have undercut program success and relegated us to second tier bowl games for the last two years. Whatever happens with the BCS or the Tech/OU/OSU tournament, an 11-1 regular season isn’t something any sane Longhorn fan could complain about. That’s why finishing is so crucial.

Let’s take a look at the Jayhawks and see what problems they may present in Lawrence.

Offense:

The KU offense is currently being compromised by shoddy OL play. In six Big 12 contests, the Jayhawks have allowed 17 sacks and Reesing has thrown eight interceptions. The former is leading to the latter and Reesing is forcing throws: he only threw seven picks over 13 games last year. That they’re still averaging 34 ppg in Big 12 play is a bit of a triumph for Reesing and his receiving corps, all things considered. Speaking of the WRs, Briscoe and Meier present legitimate problems. Briscoe is tremendous after the catch, has deceptive long stride speed, and he’s a big body (6-3 200) who attacks the ball in the air while former starting QB Meier is a big body (6-3 220) with glue hands and a telepathic connection to Reesing. We need to be cognizant of their physicality and put big on big – Deon Beasley on either long term is likely FAIL.

Kansas starts pre-schoolers at OT and they’ve struggled all year. That written, Nebraska’s five sacks largely came from pressure inside. A boy named Suh collapsed the pocket at will and finished the game with 2.5 sacks, Reesing’s bloody socks clutched in his paw, and OG Chet Hartley’s girlfriend. Given that Brian Orakpo is back practicing and Roy Miller excels at flushing QBs into Kindle’s arms, this does not bode well for the Jayhawks. Expect a lot of bubble screens and quick throws from the traditional pocket while they take their shots downfield from a moving pocket or bootleg. We played the bubble better last week, so that’s encouraging. Containment will be vital – you need to force Reesing to make his throws in a collapsing pocket without a clear line of sight. If you let him flush with sloppy contain, a clear line of sight generally means a long completion downfield. Put our over/under on sacks at 4.

To slow the pass rush, Kansas has also made a more concerted effort to run the ball with Jake Sharp. Sharp is a shifty guy with good quickness though I question his ability to stand up to the 20+ carry per game workload long term. Still, I do pull for white runners for the same reasons I pulled for Yannick Noah in tennis. That’s right: good hair. Shut down Sharp early and Kansas gets decidely one dimensional. Sharp isn’t a game breaker, but he’ll absolutely bust a 25 yarder on you and he’s nifty as a pass receiver.

Defense:

The heart of the Kansas defense is its LBing corps. Unfortunately, that heart is frequently exposed by a lack of speed in their front four more surely than an Aztec Sun God rite. They also have a moribund secondary which led to a number of benchings, lineup shifts, and inconsistent play over the last few games. Good passing teams have torn them up and Darrel Stuckey appears to be the only Jayhawk DB with a discernible pulse. If Colt gets any time at all, Kansas is going to get carved up. To their credit, they do some things with alignment and coverage mix that causes turnovers, so Colt will have to exercise some care. I’d expect one of our drives to be halted by a WTF? interception.

With the news of Chris Hall’s injury, Kansas is going to blitz heavily until we stop it. We’ll be starting a true freshman center and you can bet that they’re going to overload, run a lot line games, and give us some exotic fronts to see if he can get us in the right play. Expect them to use Rivera and Mortensen as A gap blitzers and try to get hits on Colt. Our WRs will also need to be nails running hot routes, catching the ball, and shaking a tackle to punish. Snow will need to demonstrate some composure.

LB James Holt is a stud. He’s a great blitzer off of the edge, he can run, and he causes mayhem when he gets there. If there’s someone that disrupts our offense consistently on Saturday, it will probably be Holt. He leads the country in forced fumbles and he’s a clear All Big 12 guy. If we try to handle him with a TE, I’m going to throw my remote control through Dave Lapham’s digital forehead. Rivera and Mortensen are big physical dudes who can eat up the inside the tackle running game but they’re consistently exposed in space. You can take the corner on them.

DE Jake Laptad is their other pass rushing threat (6 sacks) and the rest of the Jayhawk DL is decidely mediocre. They have some potential at DT, but they’re all one great play, three plays off guys. I don’t know if that’s conditioning or effort related. Probably both. Overall team speed on defense is poor.

Special Teams:

Arguably the worst kickoff return game in America. So good news for us. There’s a decent likelihood that Kansas will start a number of their possesions inside their 20. Their overall net punting game is pedestrian. Their FG kicking is fine. Overall, special teams should represent an advantage for us, particularly with guys like Shipley and Williams in the return game.

X Factors:

I don’t think the home environment in Lawrence is daunting. In fact, I think Jayhawk fans are counting the days til basketball season right now. I am mildly concerned about the 11:30 am start time in an unfamiliar place. It may take us a little to acclimate. Cold is no concern. In fact, it should add some vigor and pep to a few of our DL chasing Reesing around.

Final Thoughts:

If this team is properly focused, there’s no reason we shouldn’t win handily. I expect a sluggish start, a strong finish in the 2nd quarter and a dominant second half. I think we’re three touchdowns better. A loss is certainly possible if our OL completely implodes with a 18 year old making our line calls, but that’s really my only real losing scenario.

Your thoughts?

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40 Responses

  1. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

    I’m afraid you could have saved all the words and gone with “South v. North.”

    While KU is apparently not the team I thought they’d be, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hang 28 on UT. Solid receivers against UT’s young secondary – Reesing can come up big – he can be elusive behind the line and make some big passes.

    KU’s defense can’t get over the Bill Young breakup and I can’t get over just how bad KU’s defense is. I see no scenario where UT doesn’t score at least 40. Colt would have to have a bad day of sophmoric proportions, and even then I don’t see KU taking advantage of it enough to win.

    Good write up. Speed up your site.

  2. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 4:29 pm

    That’s better. Thanks.

  3. Scipio Tex said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 4:42 pm

    I threatened to deport our Bangladeshi engineering staff.

  4. Facebook User said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 4:50 pm

    Turns out they were in Bangladesh already.

    You worry about speeding up your own damn site. Wait…

    mangino Pictures, Images and Photos

  5. Phenomenal Smith said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 4:51 pm

    Over at AT I did a thing about Mizzou’s defense. I compared the Big 12 defenses in conference games and was surprised to see UT was 8th in the conference in yards/play. I suppose some (most?) can be explained away by facing the top four offenses in yards/play (UT is fifth). Still, Muschamp is a good distance from his goal. I wonder if that concerns him.

  6. Vasherized said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 5:01 pm

    Forgive the servers, they’re a little beat up after the brutal four game stretch.

    Briscoe is KU’s one true weapon and if Chykie is still in the doghouse/PUP list then I suspect he’ll do some damage. Or maybe Muschamp will realize our best cover corner is a true freshman and just say “Fuck it. Aaron, you’re the man now.” I don’t see a freak TE that work our soft zone and that makes me happy.

    KU is missing Aqib Talib (and Anthony Collins and Marcus Henry…) like Mangino misses his last Double Whopper from 15 minutes ago. Without those studs this KU team is a shell of what they were last year. Baylor’s D line is probably on par with KU’s this year and I like our chances running the ball with a healthy Fozdrellonnaya.

    The main reason being that David Snow is having a hell of a year for a true freshman playing center. Racial epithets be-damned, he would have taken Burnette’s job next year anyway. Assuming we don’t shoot ourselves in the foot with false starts in the red zone and Colt doesn’t manifest sacks by running into the arms of a defensive end facing the wrong direction, we should be able to sustain some long drives in the first half and wear down KU’s thin D line. We had our “week off” against Baylor, hopefully the guys know this is a statement game for the pollsters.

    And if we don’t chuck the ball down field to Malcolm Williams at least four times then I will go public with my three-year online romance with Pam Ward. Dare me, Greg Davis! I can’t live like this anymore!!

    Texas 41
    KU 20

  7. Scipio Tex said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 5:01 pm

    If by concern, you mean it eats away at every fiber of his being, then I’d say yes.

  8. Scipio Tex said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 5:05 pm

    Vasherized:

    I like Snow. Hall might get Wally Pipped.

  9. Vasherized said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 5:18 pm

    An interior line of Huey, Snow, and Walters (assuming he moves from center to guard) would be vicious. I know Chris Hall is a human swiss army knife and a fine Christian but I prefer a guy that just wants to rip out the nose tackle’s trachea.

  10. hiphopopotamus said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 5:48 pm

    Great write-up. Like Phenomenal said, you probably could have saved some time and just written South v. North, but since you didn’t I’m impressed with your accuracy.

    Whether it makes any sense at all though, I am trying to convince myself that the weather will be a factor.

  11. dedfischer said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    After seeing both teams play, I think the UT DL will whip the shit out of the KU OL and sweep all 4 quarters. I think the UT OL just needs to play them even, which I THINK they should be able to do. Texas by 4 TDs, 49-21.

  12. horncasting said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 7:18 pm

    Vasherized – regarding a TE and our zone, seems like Mangino could take a page out of our book and move Meier to that role. He’s definitely got the size and receiving skills.

  13. bighornfan32 said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 8:37 pm

    “An interior line of Huey, Snow, and Walters (assuming he moves from center to guard) would be vicious. I know Chris Hall is a human swiss army knife and a fine Christian but I prefer a guy that just wants to rip out the nose tackle’s trachea.”

    The only problem is that Snow is a good Christian boy himself. That never stopped Reggie White from being nasty though.

  14. hoju said:

    November 12th, 2008 at 9:20 pm

    The biggest thing that concerns me is that I recall us struggling all 3 times we’ve gone to Lawrence since the conference formed. Granted, we won those games (according to Mangino, we payed off the refs to do so), but on paper, those were bigger mismatches than this game. I’ll be happy to get out of there with a “W.”

  15. Recruiting Expert said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 2:40 am

    Give it up to me for predicting Snow would be the gem of the 2008 class. Yeah that’s right. Well, except for A Williams.

  16. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 3:36 am

    I think a lot of Davis’ problems are that, outside Ulatoski, he’s starting a bunch of one tool guys. Which is fine, unless those tools are a screwdriver, a spork, a rake, and a garden hoe. You can get by with 4 rakes, or even some combination, like 2 sporks and 2 rakes. However, it becomes extremely difficult to execute zone blocking schemes when all 4 guys have differing strengths.

  17. beowulf said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 3:50 am

    The 18 mph north wind concerns me more than the 40 degree seasonal temp. Which QB manages it better?

    The refs. In the empty recesses of their atrophied grey matter and ever widening and deepening sulci, do they owe Mangino one? Even out the ofensive PI penalty 4 years ago?

    Great write up, scip. I look forward to being in the clubhouse after this one, with a 14-24 point win, then watching the other multiple games that impact our BCS ranking play out. If we move ahead of OU in the Coaches Poll, the weekend will be a November milestone for the 2008 Longhorns.

  18. PatronSaint said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 5:01 am

    I want to just escape with a win, but a forty point immolation would be ideal. We are going to be scratching and clawing for the Big XII championship game if OU beats TT, so we’ll need every point.

  19. Drunken Rooster said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 5:26 am

    Everytime I see Mangino, I immediately think of Whimpie from the Popeye cartoons.

  20. DenUTfan said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 5:46 am

    This post would be better without pictures. Everytime I see Mangino whether it is in a picture or on TV, I feel I have been thrown into some strange bottomless pit nightmare. I think I will watch this on a station that does not have a HD broadcast.

  21. Scipio Tex said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 6:01 am

    beowulf:

    You make a good point about the wind, but I’d be hard pressed to think that Reesing has a stronger arm than Colt. Given that 2/3 of our passing game is a controlled 10 yard forward handoff, it’s probably not that big of a deal.

    ded:

    That’s a very astute observation about our OL. We’ve got athletic pull and kick guys, we’ve got giant maulers, we’ve got pass protection specialist technicians, we have effort guys – what we don’t have is one complete OL. We also have a base running play – the zone – that we really don’t understand how to run. Our timing is usually off and we don’t really pass off DL well from one to the other.

  22. NateHeupel said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 7:36 am

    Sorry about the site running slow, everyone, it’s my fault. I fell asleep last night during my watch and Bing Bong got loose.

  23. TXinDC said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 8:52 am

    DenUTfan & DrunkenRooster – personally, Mangino reminds me of Kevin from the Office, except fatter and not funny.

  24. coach Callahan said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 9:09 am

    beware the surge.

  25. Nate said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    One day Mangino will die on the sidelines. I hope I don’t have to be watching when it happens. But, just wait… it’ll be a 115 degree day in Austin and he’ll just collapse.

  26. Ndamukong said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    Dam-u, Scipio: either spell my first name or give me credit for my touchdown reception.

    I am a multi-talented guy.

  27. Scipio Tex said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    is ndamukong related to Bing Bong?

  28. Ndamukong said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 2:07 pm

    Related, yes, but Stoops couldn’t fit me in the crawl space.

  29. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    Scipio,

    That’s kind of what I’m seeing the more I watch Texas. I still can’t believe they didn’t run the ball better against OSU and Tech.

  30. p said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    dedfischer,

    We recruit O-line guys for an offense that would probably be more effective with guys about 285-300 lbs. We still recruit like we are running a pro-style offense up front.

    I watch our guys trying to get to blocks, but routinely not being to get there quick enough. Just que up one of our screen plays an watch us repeatedly not be able to get a linemen out to make a block.

  31. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 3:11 pm

    p,

    You’re exactly right. Zone blocking works when you have the right guys, but ends up just being a lateral stretch play to the sidelines for a two yard gain, if your OL aren’t quick and good drive blockers. The Texas guys just aren’t built to be great drive blockers across the board. Two guys win, and three guys get driven into the backfield.

  32. p said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 3:49 pm

    dedfischer

    They are slowly figuring out the running attack with the zone read, without the threat of a Pat White type back there. Right now our running game is just to keep teams honest so we can throw, a lot like yours. When Colt is healthy it can be a lot more versatile.

  33. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 4:09 pm

    I would just use veer blocking instead on zone read. I think you could do this with your current group of starters. Some of your guys can move their feet good enough to pull around some, and the others should do fine with down blocking scenarios. The stretch plays needs to be put on the shelf for a couple of years.

  34. Bartoncreek said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 4:15 pm

    I have a sick feeling about this game that brings to mind KU 2004 and KSU 2006. I hope it at least ends like KU 2004.

  35. dedfischer said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 4:32 pm

    BC, you’ll kick their ass. If not, I’ll be throwing down for some BCS tickets.

  36. p said:

    November 13th, 2008 at 4:51 pm

    “I would just use veer blocking instead on zone read.”-dedfischer

    I agree that would probably more effective, but zone action makes play action more effective. It takes a split second longer to read “run”.

  37. Rivethead said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    Take it from this die-hard Jayhawk fan (now living in Steiner Ranch)……..y’all don’t have anything to worry about unless Colt gets the stomach flu eating at the Marriott in Overland Park.

    Mortenson and Rivera are shells of the monsters they were last year……bad knees both of them (by both I mean both knees on both players…you followin?).

    Sharp is a quick white kid, but if Henry Melton falls on him, he could break in two.

    Unmentioned fact: KU has 27 players from Texas and 26 from Kansas on its roster. So really this game is the UofTexas vs the UofTexas unwanted recruits.

    And quit with the phat jokes. We know Mangino is big boned. He’s also the only Coach ever to win the Broyles and the Coach of the Year awards…..hey it’s something.

    And I don’t get how you can say cold isn’t a factor based upon the way my fellow Austinites act any time it gets below 50 (you’d think hell was freezin over).

  38. HenryJames said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

    And I don’t get how you can say cold isn’t a factor based upon the way my fellow Austinites act any time it gets below 50 (you’d think hell was freezin over).

    It’s almost as bad as the way Austinites drive when it rains.

  39. Parlin Hall said:

    November 14th, 2008 at 3:24 pm

    Johnny Reb cain’t drive on ice.

  40. SlickStreet said:

    November 15th, 2008 at 6:43 am

    “And quit with the phat jokes. We know Mangino is big boned” –very tactfully put!

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    I agree that an NIT bid would be acceptable this year, but that if the Razorbacks can get to 20 wins they will have a very good chance at the NCAA Tourney.

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