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Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 3 minutes ago
Great article Scipio. Also, thanks for the dime.
Looking at the Tournament futures market, Vegas is telling us what they think about Onuaku’s health. The Orangemen have the easiest region and road to the fianl four, yet they’re +700 to win it all, while UK and Kansas, teams with much tougher roads, are +250
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Art Vandelay commented on the blog post Final Four Prediction 8 minutes ago
My brackets are pretty much locked down except the South. Can’t get myself to take Baylor, and Duke doesn’t feel right. Nobody seems to be high on Nova. It’s all about the Big East and Big 12 this year.
It’s a crying shame we suck so bad. We are in a good
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James commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 18 minutes ago
Scip, like a peaceful Indian in the 1800’s, I never trust a Mormon that can shoot. Utah State has me worried.
If we escape the first weekend, things get very interesting with a potential Sweet 16 match-up with Duke. Ugly up the game and guard like hell on the perimeter in front of a
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Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 48 minutes ago
CJD -
Possibly. However, I’m telling you – the beauty of these intergame lines is that when you see that all-too-familiar big early game lead that you know will evaporate down the stretch as soon as the team starts regressing to their 3 point shooting mean, there’s some money to be made.
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Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 50 minutes ago
uthookem-
I’d say you have your priorities straight.
colorado -
Anytime. How far do you think the Aggies go? A lot of people think Utah State is the most dangerous pure shooting team in the tournament.
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uthookem commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 1 hour, 1 minute ago
Last year in Vegas, Friday morning, stumble to the line at 8:30 to make my bets, put $20 on a four-team parlay on the four 9:00 am games, nailed it! Three of the four games’ spread was determined in the final 0:30. Walked away with $220.
Yeah, so what if that is the only
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James commented on the blog post Sending Aggies to the NFL 1 hour, 2 minutes ago
Jordan, all just wild, premature conjecture. I’d hedge that only a third of that 2013 list ever makes an NFL roster. It is picking which third that is the tough part.
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James commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 1 hour, 4 minutes ago
Very interesting piece. These games can’t start soon enough. Thanks, Scip.
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Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Final Four Prediction 1 hour, 14 minutes ago
I have:
Syracuse
Kansas
West Virginia
Baylor
These will all likely change 3-4 times before tomorrow morning.
I don’t have as high an opinion of Ohio State as you do. Evan Turner is fantastic, but I don’t like their odds of taking down Georgetown and KU back-to-back.
Baylor scares me. They have no idea what
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Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Final Four Prediction 1 hour, 18 minutes ago
Arinze Onuaku’s injury has forced me to turn this year’s bracket prediction into a “Multiple Endings” story. Don’t get me wrong, we’re not hyper-geeks playing Dungeons and Dragons here. We may be wasting billions of dollars in worker productivity, but we’re not killing Orcs with plus 10 vorpal swords of magic.
So, in
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Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: The Definitive Bracket: 63 Guaranteed Winners! 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
But only if you call now! I’ve gone 85 percent against the numba for the last two decades!! So picking straight up winners is, bada-boom bada-bing, easy! Only Sammy “the nose” Pistachio and Billy “buttercups” Birmingham can approach this many winnaz! It’s ridiculoso, hermoso!!
Call now and we’ll throw in an opening round N-I-T super-dupa live dog
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Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Making it Official: Tighter Officiating’s Effect on the Tournament 1 hour, 24 minutes ago
Awesome write up.
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Scipio Tex wrote a new blog post: Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips 1 hour, 31 minutes ago
So I’m listening to Bill Simmons’ podcast and he has on Chad Millman, Vegas Insider. Basically, Chad’s job is to interact with the guys who set the line, professional gamblers, sharps, and wise guys. He had some interesting comments about the tournament:
By the end of the year, markets are fairly efficient as
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Bob Jones commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject 2 hours, 22 minutes ago
As a Baylor fan I loathe math: it’s either inexorably against us or when favorable, completely inapplicable.
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Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Making it Official: Tighter Officiating’s Effect on the Tournament 3 hours, 4 minutes ago
Should have that up soon, ts.
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Nate Heupel wrote a new blog post: Oklahoma Sooners – Recruiting So Far 3 hours, 4 minutes ago
I was reading a thread on OUInsider whining about how a beat writer for a UT website seemed to favoring UT recruits. Get the hell out of here with that nonsense. Next, you’re going to tell me that Oklahoma sports media coverage is slanted towards OU.
While Ketchum’s rankings seemed to be
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J Rog commented on the blog post March Mad(nba)ess! 3 hours, 11 minutes ago
EVERYTHING would be different. Great post!
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James commented on the blog post Two Loops & A Hooey – Herm Edwards Edition 3 hours, 12 minutes ago
ha, nice Tim burn.
I was wondering where you went Ded. I got sick of looking at the same article everyday for 2 weeks. I’ve been up to Taos a few times this season, but it’s not that far from ABQ. I am absolutely convinced that everyone in Texas has been to Angel
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Brownbear commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject 3 hours, 37 minutes ago
Atleast I was wearing flannel when I wrote it.
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admin commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject 3 hours, 49 minutes ago
Same source or just similar facts: http://fantake.com/forums/topic.php?id=876#post-5197
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admin commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The Beasts of the East 3 hours, 51 minutes ago
I think I’m riding the Huggy bear to the Final Four.
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ursa major commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject 4 hours, 3 minutes ago
“in the history of baylor basketball this has never been in discussion”
except for that pesky final four appearance we made…
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Sancho commented on the blog post All Signs Point to March Madness Expanding to 96 Teams 4 hours, 6 minutes ago
I just had diarrhea in my pants thinking about how many horrible teams would allowed to play
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Sancho commented on the blog post 2010 Football Schedule Released 4 hours, 10 minutes ago
8-4 would be pretty good, 9-3 would be stellar, in fact quite amazing. I still say we are two years away from having an impact year in college football, though.
On another note, the game against tech is gonna be on ESPN. Time for SMU to step it up on the national stage again.
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Luke commented on the blog post Want to plant my feet on Rampart Street… 4 hours, 17 minutes ago
I won’t lie, the newly fashionable take as the Bears as a Final Four team sorta scares me. I think we do better as an underdog. maybe that’s jsut because I am so used to us being an underdog. Either way, I am f’in fired up . All of s sudden,
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Vasherized commented on the blog post Beat the Barkers NCAA Tourney Bracket 4 hours, 33 minutes ago
This is an equal opportunity bracket.
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Making it Official: Tighter Officiating’s Effect on the Tournament 5 hours, 7 minutes ago
Great article, Kevin. Really interested to see if Nova is in fact reborn or if there is something more deeply seeded there.
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Brownbear wrote a new blog post: Math… Everyone’s favorite subject 5 hours, 20 minutes ago
It’s the most wonderful time of the year basketball fans. The madness of March has returned and the field of 65 is set. Whatifsports.com is excited to follow-up its NCAA basketball predictions of 2008 (Kansas) and 2009 (North Carolina) by accurately predicting the 2010 NCAA basketball champion. Their award-winning college basketball simulation engine has “played” the NCAA
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Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Bush Paves the Way for Henderson? 5 hours, 24 minutes ago
All fine answers, PB. Like I said, I had no idea who they were but clearly you do.
Keep up the great stuff.
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Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Making it Official: Tighter Officiating’s Effect on the Tournament 5 hours, 34 minutes ago
It’s common knowledge that officiating gets a little tighter in tournament play. Especially when compared to the infrequency of whistles blown as conference heavyweights are throwing haymakers.
If you want scientific proof, go look at over/under numbers for total points scored in tournament games versus conference games involving the same teams and you’ll find the numbers
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Nate said:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:27 am
Think it might be time to start cheering for the Red Raiders to win out, so that we get a chance to play in a BCS bowl. The part that makes it easy is that I can’t cheer for OU.
Tim said:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:15 am
ofTexas, thank you for the top notch work. Were you rushed this week?
p said:
November 9th, 2008 at 8:30 am
Nate
I would have to agree with you. If the Sooners get into the CCG after beating them by 10, I will be beside myself.
Should we have taken care of business? I would give a resounding yes, but they had the more favorable schedule. With the absence of Missou on their schedule, we shouldn’t be punished for playing the meat of our schedule earlier than they did. Voters should look at the schedule strength, and see that it’s in our favor. Missou is better than TCU. Arky is better than Washington. We beat them in a neutral site, and only lost at the last second on the road.
I hope we make it, but if not I would rather have Tech get there. At least I know they won’t pee down their leg in a BCS game.
horncasting said:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:03 am
My God, Tech looked good. I honestly didn’t think they could put together a full game like that against a quality opponent. Kudos to them.
I don’t know how Harrell is not a runaway favorite for the Heisman right now. The main feather in Colt’s cap will be if he ends up breaking the % completion record, but even then will it be enough if Tech wins out and Harrell continues to roll?
Add to the bad – us taking our foot off of the gas at the end of the game while our main competition in BCS did not. Winning by another 7-10 points might have helped with the voters, most of whom are going to look at our spread vs. the ones for Florida and OU and give the nod to the bad guys.
hopefulhorn said:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:42 am
I may have been wrong about Tech. They are on some kind of roll right now. Now (after a bye next week) we will see if the Raiders can maintain that level of play against a quality opponent on the road. If they can, more power to them.
hopefulhorn said:
November 9th, 2008 at 9:44 am
I may have been wrong about Tech. I thought they had a good chance against OSU playing at home. However, I didn’t see them dominating the way they did. They are on some kind of roll right now.
Now (after a bye next week) we will see if the Raiders can maintain that level of play against a quality opponent on the road. If they can, more power to them. They looked some kind of strong against a pretty good team last night.
Eig said:
November 9th, 2008 at 11:36 am
I think both Cal and Iowa are better than you give them credit for. Awful offenses, but some good athletes on the other side of the ball.
Sam Bradford said:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Next.
CrazyJoeDavola said:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Man, going by that picture, Mike Sherman needs a haircut in the worst way.
NateHeupel said:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:56 pm
“With the absence of Missou on their schedule, we shouldn’t be punished for playing the meat of our schedule earlier than they did.”
Isn’t this the same team that got beat AT HOME by Oklahoma State? Pretty much the same team that lost to OU twice last year? The same Mizzou team that hung on by a fingernail against BAYLOR?
And you think not playing Mizzou is a knock on OU? Please.
“Mizzou is better than TCU.”
I’d say it’s closer to even. Who has TCU beaten that Missouri wouldn’t have beaten? Who has Missouri beaten that TCU wouldn’t have beaten?
“Arky is better than Washington.”
Cincinnati is better than Arkansas BY A LONGSHOT.
If OU beats OSU ON THE ROAD and Tech, then what’s your argument? Tech beat Texas who beat OU who beat Tech…All 3 will be 11-1, and only OU will have 2 OOC wins against ranked teams since Cincy and TCU will probably finish in the top 25.
This will work itself out. OU beating Tech is not a given by any means or measure. Neither is OU beating OSU.
53 Veer Pass said:
November 9th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
No mention of the inconsistent kickoff coverage? It cost us in Lubbock and will cost us again until we get it fixed.
kuelguapo said:
November 9th, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Dear UT D-Line,
For the sake of my delusions of KU beating MU in a rivalry game that will only matter for the pride of handing the slavers another loss and vaulting the ‘hawks into a killer showdown in shreveport with kentucky, please don’t kill Todd Reesing next week.
Thanks,
kuelguapo
TaylorTRoom said:
November 9th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
NateHeupel, we played Rice and beat them 52 – 10. Rice is 7 – 3, beotch! Back to reality, how funny would it be if Texas edged OU in the BCS by .001, and we all knew that a surprisingly adequate Rice team put us over the top?
Another good- the rugby style punter. I predict that in 2009, nine Big 12 teams will have rugby style punters. In three years, the NCAA will either change the rules on punting, or it will be dramatically different than we have seen before.
Ex-pessimist said:
November 9th, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Here is how the timing will work out over the next 3 weeks:
1. OU and Tech are off next week while we play at KU. Assuming we win with a decent margin, it certainly won’t hurt us in the polls, and may actually get us a few more votes.
2. The following week we are off while Tech plays at OU. Assuming OU wins the game, we will get to see what the BCS will look like before our and their last games (Hint: we will still be ahead in the BCS standings and will be able to see how the voters rewarded OU and penalized Tech.)
3. Our last game is on a Thursday, and assuming we smash the Aggies, Mack will be free to talk up the possibility of the 3-way tie should OU beat OSU the following Saturday. He can point out how between the 3 teams, we did not have a home game while the others did, and also point out how we played and beat the North champion while OU and Tech didn’t. He can also point out that our SOS and therefore entire resume is stronger.
4. If OSU beats OU, then obviously Tech goes to the CCG (assuming they beat Baylor), but we’ll still be positioned for the MNC in case of an upset.
p said:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
NateHeupel
Are you serious??? TCU is a 2 loss team in the WAC. Missou is a 2 loss team in the big12…. no comparison. TCU would get beat by every team in the big12 south not named Aggie. Try to credit them if you want.
WVU got beat by Colorado, or did you forget? I am not impressed that Cincy beat them, so did East Carolina.
The facts are simple. Oklahoma’s only wins against a competent opponent is TCU and Cincy, if you wanna call that competition. Neither of those institutions could beat an OU, Texas, or Tech. Thus far OU has played a schedule with 0 wins vs powerhouse squads. The only one they faced thus far beat them on a neutral field. Meanwhile we have faced 4 teams ranked 11 or higher, beating 3 of them. There is no way you guys deserve to be ranked higher. You shouldn’t even be close!!
p said:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:42 pm
“If OU beats OSU ON THE ROAD and Tech, then what’s your argument?”
The fact is we lost at the last second on the road. We beat you head to head, and played more “big boy” schools than you did. Cincy, and TCU have ranking because they have no one else to give them too. What do you think their conference record would be in they were in the big12 south, a win over Baylor or A&M, and four losses each???
Colt 45 said:
November 9th, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Ex-pessimist, I think if TTU were to lose the CCG, then UT may get a BCS berth, but its Championship Game hopes will be nonexistent. I’m pretty sure that the BCS rules were amended following OU-LSU to require a team to have been its conference champion before being given the privilege of playing for a national championship.
Ex-pessimist said:
November 9th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
Colt, that’s incorrect. No such rule exists. You can have 2 teams from the same conference in the MNC game, one of which obviously wouldn’t be the conference champ.
Art Vandelay said:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
Good stuff Eyes. Why no love for Ryan Palmer? Seems like he gets a BC bum rap.
Lewis said:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:29 pm
“1. OU and Tech are off next week while we play at KU. Assuming we win with a decent margin, it certainly won’t hurt us in the polls, and may actually get us a few more votes.
2. The following week we are off while Tech plays at OU. Assuming OU wins the game, we will get to see what the BCS will look like before our and their last games (Hint: we will still be ahead in the BCS standings and will be able to see how the voters rewarded OU and penalized Tech.)
3. Our last game is on a Thursday, and assuming we smash the Aggies, Mack will be free to talk up the possibility of the 3-way tie should OU beat OSU the following Saturday. He can point out how between the 3 teams, we did not have a home game while the others did, and also point out how we played and beat the North champion while OU and Tech didn’t. He can also point out that our SOS and therefore entire resume is stronger.”
You probably should have Mack get on his knees for the pollsters and people that are in charge of the computer rankings during that bye week, in addition to Thanksgiving weekend.
This comment is THE argument for why college football needs a playoff.
EyesOfTX said:
November 9th, 2008 at 6:46 pm
Art Vandelay (great Seinfeld reference, btw): Palmer did make a hell of a play on that Pick 6, and it turned the game. I certainly should have mentioned it. Thanks for the reminder.
Ex-pessimist said:
November 9th, 2008 at 7:20 pm
No doubt Lewis
Kansas Horn said:
November 10th, 2008 at 6:57 am
Now that Penn St. is finally out of the way, it seems pretty clear that it will be a team from the SEC and Big 12 in the title game.
What if: Tech wins out, but loses in the Big 12 title game to Mizzu…. Do we get into the title game? Or does Tech get the OU treatment when they were undefeated, lost to K-State in the Big 12 title game, and still got to play for the title against LSU?
dick said:
November 10th, 2008 at 7:33 am
I think pollsters would move TT below Texas but keep them above OU in that scenario. Computers would have Texas over TT as well due to schedule. That is a pretty real scenario if you think TT has a chance in Norman.
71grad said:
November 11th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Ou has had real troubl with their secondary all year. Why does anybody think they will have any success against Tech?
dedfischer said:
November 12th, 2008 at 5:24 am
“Ou has had real troubl with their secondary all year. Why does anybody think they will have any success against Tech?”
I haven’t quite figured that one out myself. One other factor that may be in play here is that the only two teams with good speed on the DL are Texas, OU and Tech. Tech was the last team of these two to play Texas, while Loadholt has been lulled to sleep by the lathargic pass rushing of A&M, Nebraska, Kansas, and KSU. Williams/Whitlock & company might be able to jump all over Bradford early in the game until the OU OL gets adjusted to the increased speed. If this happens, OU will have some serious issues if the Red Raiders go up by two scores early.
dasmithjones said:
November 12th, 2008 at 5:26 am
Clarification: Is the CCG the same as the MNC or am I just NTS and SOL?
I just asking.
dasmithjones said:
November 12th, 2008 at 5:36 am
No way that Harrell should get the Heisman over Colt. The H is supposed to go the the best overall player. Considering what Colt is working with, he is more deserving. Nothing against Harrell’s deeds, but how many times have we seen a Tech QB throw for a gazillion yards. The diff this year is an improved OL and best D so far in the Leach era.
OU's first quarter said:
November 12th, 2008 at 5:59 am
If this happens, OU will have some serious issues if the Red Raiders go up by two scores early.
You’ve seen me, yes?
Parlin Hall said:
November 12th, 2008 at 8:54 am
“Williams/Whitlock & company might be able to jump all over Bradford early in the game until the OU OL gets adjusted to the increased speed.”
Neither team gets a sack in the No Holding Bowl.
Grabbing laundry is so yesterday–the envelope is only pushed with multiple half-nelsons on each play.
Tim said:
November 12th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Can someone with a brain please explain to me how this schedule(or stretch)
Neutral site vs. OU ranked
Home vs. Mizzou ranked
Home vs. Okie State ranked
Away vs. Texas Tech ranked
is harder than
Away vs. Kansas ranked
Home vs. Texas ranked
Home vs. Okie State ranked
Away vs. Oklahoma ranked
If Texas Tech were to lose to Oklahoma, if you are a smart person you would understand that Texas Tech’s stretch is actually harder. A) because they have more true road games, and B) Texas Tech plays OU in Norman, where UT got them in Dallas with Half a stadium of UT fans.
The Texas Tech schedule/stretch is harder than the UT stretch, if they both end up 11-1 Texas Tech has gone 11-1 with a tougher schedule than UT.
And don’t give me that Mizzou at home is tougher than Kansas on the road crap because that just isn’t true. None of the Top 3 in the South have lost a home game, proving that home and neutral site games in the Big 12 are much easier than true road games.
Texas Tech is the better team and will have played the harder schedule!
Cornbread Red said:
November 12th, 2008 at 10:38 am
Here are my predictions
Tech over OU Big
Kansas beats Texas
Cornbread Red said:
November 12th, 2008 at 10:47 am
Can someone with a brain please explain to me how this schedule(or stretch)
Neutral site vs. OU ranked
Home vs. Mizzou ranked
Home vs. Okie State ranked
Away vs. Texas Tech ranked
is harder than
Away vs. Kansas ranked
Home vs. Texas ranked
Home vs. Okie State ranked
Away vs. Oklahoma ranked
Here is why Tim – you forgot to include Texas at Kansas. That is a whole other team that you forgot about – if you count it as a hard game for Tech it has to be same for Texas.
Why did you leave that game out?
srr50 said:
November 12th, 2008 at 11:07 am
Tim also convienently leaves out the fact that the Strength of Schedule means the entire schedule..
Tech’s non-conference schedule is a joke.
Tim said:
November 12th, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Ok I’ll take your Kansas on the road, and raise you with a Nebraska team at home that beat Kansas.
I will also take Nevada and Eastern Washinton( a team that took Colorado to the wire) over UTEP, FAU, and Rice. Nevada would probably beat Arkansas in Nevada before their starting running back tore his ACL(in the Tech game). I have no doubt that Eastern Washington would beat UTEP and Rice.
I really don’t see how non-conference is valid in this discussion. My point is that all the media and UT fans are saying how difficult the 4 game stretch for UT was, and in reality Texas Tech’s four game stretch is actually harder than UT’s.
Redfoot said:
November 12th, 2008 at 1:31 pm
So Tim, when you are trying to overstate the strength of Tech’s schedule, you talk Kansas up, then when you try to understate Texas’ schedule, you say “hey look, Kansas can’t even beat Nebraska.”
Seriously man, the rest of us Tech alums wince whenever you post.
flamingmonkeyass said:
November 13th, 2008 at 7:49 am
Thank god we only have to put up with these Raider fans – post game – once every five or six years. It’s nice to know that after next years 50ish to 20ish beatdown in Austin they’ll disappear again. Maybe they can use whatever hole ponderos crawled into after the ou game this year. Although after Mack makes it 4 out of the last 5 next year, he’ll probably need it back.
BTW, good to have you back ponderos. Maybe you and Tim can get together and talk about how arrogant Horn fans are, and you know, make out or whatever it is people you people do. I don’t really know.
flamingmonkeyass said:
November 13th, 2008 at 7:54 am
“or whatever it is people you people do”
WTF? That’s funny I don’t remember being high when I wrote that.
You and Tim should get together and have nasty, “I hate Texas” sex. That’s basically what I was trying to say.