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Texas Tech Relevance Week

Posted by ChrisApplewhite on November 6th, 2008 under Football

It’s also Baylor week (bear attack!). Tech is more interesting to me.

In order to make the Big XII championship game, Tech needs to run the table. In order for us to make it back, we really only need them to lose once. What are the odds that Tech makes it in?

First up, OSU at home. I think OSU is ever so slightly the better team, but not enough to overcome the home field advantage Tech will have. So let’s say Tech will win 52% of the time.

The OU game will be much tougher. Mike Leach has always had trouble with OU’s defense, needing phantom TDs and QB injuries to win. Assuming neither of those things happen, OU wins on a neutral field 80% of the time. At home, it’s probably 85%.

So right off the bat there is a 7.5% chance that Tech runs this gauntlet. I’m not counting the upset of Texas in this calculation, because that’s not how probability works. But if you want to ask the odds of beating three good teams in a row you could lower it slightly.

The next adjustment comes from my bias. I honestly try to be as objective as possible, but since I am prone to emotional swings from time to time, it gets hard to tell if I am just pouting. So I will give Tech the benefit of the doubt and raise both game numbers to 55% and 20% respectively.

Next, you have to figure in karma from the football Gods. You don’t have a dropped INT followed by a miracle TD, preceded by 3 hours of uncalled penalties and just think you’re going to get away scot free. Football Gods don’t roll like that. They gave us a win over NU in 1996, then made James Brown’s talent walk the plank. Back to 54% and 16%.

Don’t forget, Mike Leach is gunning for a coaching job at a school that can afford stamps, so he’ll bring everything he has to these two games. He might even pay attention this time. That has to be counted. 57/18. Call it the “Please get me out of here!” clause.

There is the Mike Gundy factor, wherein he gets to the 4th quarter in a tight game and started letting ball boys pick his plays. This game will undoubtedly be close, so Tech’s chances are better. Bob Stoops, however, will be gunning for blood since Tech very well may have cost them a championship last year. 60% and 13%.

Finally, don’t underestimate Mike Leach’s use of Jack Daniels to calm his nerves. He’ll be stoked, which for him means he’ll put some inflection in his voice and open his eyes all the way. There is a great chance, should Tech beat OSU, that Leach will drink himself silly in the morning and spend the entire first half trying to invade the fans in the front rows and looting their wallets. 9%.

So there are my numbers. a 60% chance to beat OSU, 9% chance to beat OU. That means there is a 5.4% chance Tech makes the conference game. 7.5% again if he shows up sober.

Final note – we should all be rooting for OSU to win Saturday. That would put OU in the position of eliminating themselves if they win or lose. Watching 80,000 Okies go “yeahhhhhhawwwwwwww” all day would be endless fun.

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38 Responses

  1. Intellectual type said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:05 am

    You’re not worried that if Tech beats OSU and then loses to OU that OU won’t jump us in the BCS rankings? That would put OU in the Big XII championship game by winning the three-way tiebreak. This of course assumes that OU beats OSU as well.

  2. Tim said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:21 am

    I guess since you are only giving Tech a less than 6% chance to make it to the Big 12 Championship game we should all just pack it in now and give up.

    Of course this coming from the same guy that didn’t give Tech a chance to beat Texas.

  3. hobbs said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:32 am

    I guess since you are only giving Tech a less than 6% chance to make it to the Big 12 Championship game we should all just pack it in now and give up.

    No, go ahead and play hard, but rest assured that one of the Okie squads is going to beat you.

  4. UTHornFan014 said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:40 am

    Tim… You need to lighten up and stop being so damn sensitive.

    Just because we say that Tech has less than a 10% chance to make it through a tough 3 game stretch doesn’t mean we think they are a bad team.

    Shit I had our chances of going through the OU-Mizzou-OSU-Tech gauntlet undefeated at around 5%, even after beating OU.

  5. Parlin Hall said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:44 am

    CA, we need dots.

    For this game, sideline dots for Leach and Gundy too.

    Preferably ones with mushroom cloud effects.

  6. Tim's Friend said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:50 am

    Tim cannot not be so sensitive. Being sensitive about Texas fans’ superiority complex is just who he is. We need to respect all kinds here at Barking Carnival.

    It’s ok, Tim. You can be as sensitive and red-assed as you want all the time. You can even keep rubbing it in to us as much as you want.

    Good ol’ Tim!

  7. dusk till dawn said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 8:07 am

    I’m more scared of this game than I was of the Texas game. There is no way Tech can match the emotional intensity they had last week and OSU could actually be a better team than UT. scary.

    I would say the percentage of us getting through these next 2 is OSU 50%; OU 20%

  8. Shum Un said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 8:10 am

    I think you have a better chance of beating OU on their field that OSU on your. OU’s pass defense stinks and they dont run the ball as well as OSU.

  9. Colby Whitlock said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 8:49 am

    I was getting sick of tap dancing lessons anyway.

  10. BC fan said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 9:02 am

    Scipio Tex, plz to give us a post mortem of the election thank you

  11. Colby Whitlock said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 9:11 am

    I also saved your ass because I think Rylan Reed really was going to take that steel chair out there next.

  12. PatronSaint said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 9:16 am

    “In order to make the Big XII championship game, Tech needs to run the table. In order for us to make it back, we really only need them to lose once.”

    One loss Tech will make it to B12CG if
    1) TT loses to OSU, but OU beats OSU.
    2) TT loses to OU, but OSU beats OU.

    Both of those make UT and TT 7-1 in conference, with Tech winning head-to-head against us.

    One loss Tech may make it to BIG12CG if:
    3) It loses to OU, and OU beats OSU
    4) It loses to OSU, and OSU beats OU

    Makes a three way tie with UT, TT, and either OU and OSU. Highest BCS goes. I think a three way tie involving OU, OU will be in. Three way with OSU, UT, and TT, UT will be in.

  13. Bobby Jack Akina said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 10:13 am

    After Alabama, Tech and Penn St all lose this weekend, we won’t need to worry about whether we reach the Big 12 Championship game.

  14. Tim's Bleeding Vagina said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 10:52 am

    i’ve switched to maxi pads to see if they work better. i assure you that we are working to get this problem solved.

  15. MTECH said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 11:07 am

    Great article! Very funny!

  16. ChrisApplewhite's Bleeding Vagina said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 11:12 am

    We wouldn’t be in this mess if Tech wasn’t a bunch of redneck cheaters.

  17. UTtuck said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 11:51 am

    Patron Saint, I don’t think that’s quite right. You need to add another game (does Tech beat OU in #1? if so they win out, and go to the B12CG, but in #2 you need to clarify what happens between Tech and OU). # 3 is right, and #4 is wrong, because if OSU and UT win out then it is a 2 way tie with us having a win over OSU. I just don’t see Tech being tops in the BCS (schedule/not a traditional power program) so I don’t see them winning any of the tiebreakers.

    And hey! Look! Someone made a funny about Tim (the bleeding vag, original and clever) and a Tech fan tried to use it too. They learn so quick don’t they?

  18. ChrisApplewhite said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 11:59 am

    “Of course this coming from the same guy that didn’t give Tech a chance to beat Texas.”

    No, it’s not.

  19. PatronSaint said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    On the first two I listed, I’m talking about a one-loss Tech. So every other game is a win.

    First two examples:
    Tech: 7-1
    UT: 7-1
    OSU: 6-2
    OU: 6-2

    Tech goes because of head to head.

    On the third example:
    UT: 7-1
    OU: 7-1
    TT: 7-1
    OSU: 5-3

    On the fourth example:
    UT: 7-1
    OSU: 7-1
    TT: 7-1
    OU: 5-3

    Both of those go to higher BCS. I agree that none of those would result in Tech going because of the lack of brand name, but who knows.

  20. UTtuck said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 2:45 pm

    Gotcha, good stuff. I think on 3 and 4 UT goes, but there is a very good chance that OU goes on 3. Of course, anything could happen.

  21. TCU Fan said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 6:23 pm

    We could beat everyone of you chumps. You ought to be glad you don’t have to play us. OU was just lucky…

  22. Tommie Blake's Career said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 6:33 pm

    Hey, any of you seen my deca durabol?

  23. Mike said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:28 pm

    Sorry TCU Fan. Better luck next time.

  24. austintxusa said:

    November 6th, 2008 at 7:44 pm

    You hit a fucking wall? LOL. What a dumbass.

  25. TCU Fan said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 7:02 am

    Field goals are way overrated.

  26. Mysterious Package said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 8:32 am

    TCU should be in the Big 12?

  27. Parlin Hall said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 8:55 am

    Rest assured that Ded is still employed; he appears to be writing for SI.com under the pen-name “Austin Murphy”; the headline:

    “Texas Tech is the surprising, feel-good story of the 2008 season”

    Whither thou, O Bitterness?

  28. Ace and Gary said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 9:13 am

    Taco Tech is a bunch of redneck retards going to a dustbowl juco becasue they couldn’t get into Texas. You’re lucky the refs won that game for you. Go Horns! Beat all the other guys! Wooo Wee!

  29. dedfischer said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 11:05 am

    “Rest assured that Ded is still employed; he appears to be writing for SI.com under the pen-name “Austin Murphy”; the headline:”

    That’s funny, someone just emailed me that. ChrisApplewhite is now the most famous interweb play designer in history.

  30. HenryJames said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 11:21 am

    From Parlin’s link.

    “If you want to go really deep on the Tech offense, check out The Tortilla Retort, whose X-and-O-savvy proprietor speculates that Leach began “tinkering more with two back sets and jumbo packages” for a number of reasons, chief among that “he saw the writing on the wall and it read, ‘PERPETUALLY F_____G 8-4.’”

  31. Vasherized said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 12:07 pm

    Wow. He really did write that. I thought you had edited it for color.

  32. Gene Claude said:

    November 7th, 2008 at 12:31 pm

    Cheer up Texas fans, chances are reaonable that you get the last laugh:

    http://www.atomicteeth.com/euclid-claude/would-you-like-to-play-a-national-championship-game/

  33. Colt McCoy's Lips said:

    November 8th, 2008 at 7:56 pm

    Those TT guys arent bad on defense

  34. dedfischer said:

    November 8th, 2008 at 9:05 pm

    We looked beat up and worn out from the Texas game.

  35. Tim said:

    November 9th, 2008 at 7:10 am

    This Texas Tech team is making BC bloggers look like complete idiots.

  36. Minnesotahorn said:

    November 9th, 2008 at 8:17 am

    Tim really exemplifies the Tech fan base to me. That spastic collection of triple digit SAT scores doesn’t belong anywhere near where they are right now and the universe needs to correct itself as soon as possible. They’re the nose picking lottery winners who’ve moved into our gated community and promptly placed plastic flamingos in their front yard and painted their house crime scene yellow. Their red headed kids crap in the community pool and chalk our driveways with misspelled profanity. I’ll be cheering heartily for OU to slash the tires on their Monte Carlo and poison their Pit Bull/Chow mix.

    It’s not cute anymore Tim. Take your lawn darts and garden gnomes and get yourself a nice gaudy trash palace in Wimberly. You don’t belong here.

  37. mojavereject said:

    November 9th, 2008 at 10:36 am

    I would have liked to see Taylor Potts get a few more reps, but was overall very pleased with this one. Whitlock continues to impress on the line, he was a huge part of our defensive success.

  38. 98horn said:

    November 9th, 2008 at 2:39 pm

    Minnesotahorn, we are in your debt.

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