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“Stats are for losers,” Muschamp said. “I like winning games.”
While I tend to agree with Muschamp on almost everything (like the the sun rising in the West and that the earth is flat), I do take exception with the stats part. I, too, like to win games. I like digging into the stats – see the college fantasy football obsession or playing rotisserie baseball when it required the Monday USA Today sports page so you can compile that week’s boxscores. Others around here do too. Surely you have seen a Huckleberry post. Or Dedfisher’s drive chart obsession. I am a reformed CPA so you know I dig some digits.
Yes, I am talking to you, stat geek!
Muschamp told us before the year that he had a couple of defensive stats matter, so don’t bother worrying about the fact that Chase Daniel threw for 310 yards. Anyone who watched that game knows they didn’t matter a bit. Here is a review of where we stand through seven games.
It should be noted that Texas has already faced two of the top four scoring offenses in the conference, faces the best scoring offense every day in practice, and faces the 4th best offense this week.
Yards Per Passing Attempt
Through 7 games = 6.85
Last Year = 7.61
Muschamp Goal = 5.0
Notes: No one in the Big 12 is close to Muschamp’s goal. When setting his goals, Muschamp still clearly thought JP Wilson was on his schedule. And Jarret Lee and Tim Tebow and whoever now is in Spurrier’s “offense”. Okie State leads the Big 12 at 5.55. Texas is actually 8th in the conference on this metric.
Third Down Conversion
Through 7 games = 35.2%
Last Year = 39%
Muschamp Goal = 30%
Notes: OU, Okie State, and Texas Tech are all keeping opponents under 30%. Texas is 4th in conference. Texas is first in the conference on Fourth Down conversions at 25% (4 of 16).
Red Zone Defense (any score allowed)
Through 7 games = 68%
Last Year = 77.8%
Notes: Texas leads the conference in Red Zone Defense.
Scoring Defense
Through 7 games = 17.6
Last Year = 25.3
Notes: Texas leads the conference in scoring defense by a full 3 points.
My own stat that matters:
Turnovers Forced
Through 7 games = 10 (1.43 per game)
Last Year = 27 (2.07 per game)
Weird stat…Texas is tied for 10th in the conference – only Kansas State and Nebraska are worse at 8. Iowa State, ironically, leads the conference with 20 turnovers forced (12 fumbles and 8 picks).
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Activity
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ursa major commented on the blog post Why The 1994 Goodwill Games Might Be A Sign of Things To Come ago
I’d like to think that Ken Starr is Hans, the benevolent hockey shop owner.
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James commented on the blog post Sending Aggies to the NFL ago
JJ is listed in most people’s Top 5 quarterbacks for the 2011 Draft. Ideal size, mobile. His accuracy has also improved dramatically. While Sherman runs a ton out of the shotgun, it is still a semblance of a pro offense.
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Huckleberry commented on the blog post That Silly Away Goals Rule ago
That’s quite a stretch to view the away goals rule as a harkening to the territorial origins of the game. The game is now split between matches taking place entirely in one town or the other.
The rule is a bad one, IMO. You don’t even have to take it to its logical extreme
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Roscoe wrote a new blog post: Why The 1994 Goodwill Games Might Be A Sign of Things To Come ago
There is no question as to why Baylor is favored to beat Texas tonight – they are two teams on completely different paths since January, and Baylor is coming off perhaps its most impressive win of the year, the dunk-filled dismantling of Texas on Saturday. A Baylor fan should feel confident about tonight’s game, how
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ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Real Humiliation: Los Galacticos Ousted 3 minutes ago
Ronaldo = Johnny Weir.
Nothing pleases me more than watching Real Madrid lose. Except watching Chelsea lose. But whatever, I won’t quibble. I loved it.
Truth is truth. You can’t just flat-out buy an entire team of super-stars. There is only one ball to go around.
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ursa major wrote a new blog post: Baylor v. Texas – Preview 29 minutes ago
Baylor hasn’t beaten Texas three times in the same season since 1981-82. Can we break that streak tonight?
Rather than some esoteric discussion of the relative merits of each team, I think it’s relevant to do a quick look at the stats from our first two matchups.
Baylor 80, @Texas 77 (OT)
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James wrote a new blog post: Sending Aggies to the NFL 43 minutes ago
A&M had its pro day this week and it was a damning reminder of where the exiled regime left this program. Not one A&M football player was invited to the 2010 NFL Combine. Pro day featured a depressing cluster of Fran recruits clinging to the dream of earning a living in the NFL.
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ursa major commented on the blog post Colt McCoy: Smarter Than An Apostle, Dumber Than An Okie 1 hour, 23 minutes ago
I got a 50. Thanks Larry Sager!
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P.Drez commented on the blog post Real Humiliation: Los Galacticos Ousted 2 hours, 2 minutes ago
His hair really is getting ridiculous… he’s having a case of the Beckhams.
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BatesHorn commented on the blog post Colt McCoy: Smarter Than An Apostle, Dumber Than An Okie 2 hours, 8 minutes ago
35 while ignoring a conference call with some corporate types in Delaware.
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P.Drez wrote a new blog post: Real Humiliation: Los Galacticos Ousted 2 hours, 23 minutes ago
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Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Quick Preview of Today’s Big East Tournament Action 3 hours, 14 minutes ago
Georgetown vs. Syracuse.
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czarcw commented on the blog post If A Stopwatch Clicks In The Woods… 3 hours, 16 minutes ago
I’ll comment on that game. The Ags didn’t quit because, unlike their customary curb-stomping against K-State and OU, they actually had some early success where they scored on a broken coverage. Secondly, no doubt, Jerrod Johnson was on fire. If he plays like that every game next year, the Ags are going to be tough
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James commented on the blog post Big XII Day 2 – Preview 3 hours, 28 minutes ago
Page is actually a Smurf
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Our long national nightmare is over 3 hours, 34 minutes ago
“Man, it’s really just a dream come true to commit to Texas,” Diggs told Hamilton. “I’ve grown up watching the Texas Longhorns and have loved those guys my whole life. Of course, my brother is a Texas Longhorn playing in the NFL and I love being around all the guys that have played at Texas
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Drew Dunlevie commented on the blog post Top 8 Seed Round Robin: The One Seeds 3 hours, 52 minutes ago
Was talking with Kevin yesterday and I think he likes Kansas the best of the 1’s but has a different favorite to cut down the nets in Indy…
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hodad commented on the blog post Mack’s practice thoughts 4 hours, 12 minutes ago
“The impending lack of depth at corner along with an ability to cover a slot receiver could earn him a spot next year as the starting nickel when Aaron Williams leaves us for a huge payday after stomping through the Big 12 next year like Sasquatch through the mosh pit of a Green Day show.”
This
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hodad commented on the blog post Our long national nightmare is over 4 hours, 18 minutes ago
Mike Davis and Darius White play a position that Texas has up to five of on the field on any given play. Malcolm Brown and Hershel Sims play a position That UT that hasn’t had more than one of on the field since the early 80’s.
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post Top 8 Seed Round Robin: The One Seeds 4 hours, 31 minutes ago
So it looks like you’re leaning Kansas. I like where your head’s at.
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hodad commented on the blog post Our long national nightmare is over 4 hours, 52 minutes ago
Even with the great class we’ve already signed I’m going to be really worried if Malcolm Brown doesn’t come to the 40 acres. Expecting more than one of the elite four in the state is just hubris. Why would a kid come and compete with another one of the elite four when he
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Blues commented on the blog post Colt McCoy: Smarter Than An Apostle, Dumber Than An Okie 5 hours, 3 minutes ago
“Bradford was able to do so well by having one eye concerned with the question he was currently answering while having his other eye pre-read the next one.”
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ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Our long national nightmare is over 5 hours, 3 minutes ago
I vote we now increase our concern about landing a stud running back?
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Ag_in_TX wrote a new blog post: Big XII Day 2 – Preview 5 hours, 9 minutes ago
So – one for four yesterday is about par for me. In fact, it reminds me of the time my wife was taking note of my picks for a given weekend. I told her I had studied trends, noted injuries, and done all my research. She told me: “Perhaps you should keep
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Blues commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Iowa State: Post-Mortem 5 hours, 10 minutes ago
I watched this game out of the corner of my eye and avoided live threads. I think I helped the team and my blood pressure. Thanks for re-capping the finer points I missed by letting go.
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post Big XII Tourney: Day One 5 hours, 17 minutes ago
Agreed. I think people forget that to be a 6 seed you have to be one of the best 24 teams in the country. That’s not Missouri.
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Blues commented on the blog post Mack’s practice thoughts 5 hours, 24 minutes ago
Nice thoughts, Rover.
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James commented on the blog post Big XII Tourney: Day Two 5 hours, 29 minutes ago
Good previews.
I think you guys coast to a double digit win over Tech.
We should be able to guard Corn better than Mizzou did thus giving them tougher shots.
The evening games should be good viewing. I like Okie Lite in the upset over K-State. I also think the Baylor guards guide the Bears to
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Magnificent Bastard commented on the blog post Our long national nightmare is over 5 hours, 33 minutes ago
sizzle’s hands are permanently chapped and raw.
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BatesHorn commented on the blog post Our long national nightmare is over 5 hours, 34 minutes ago
Well, the San Francisco connection is strong here, so…….
If I had to guess, they wanted to take one more look at the numbers, expected attrition, etc, and make sure they had all their numbers locked down before they offered, which the first week of Spring Practice would help them suss out, and they probably told
dedfischer said:
October 20th, 2008 at 9:10 am
Interesting. I realize that McCoy is the most valuable player to the Texas team, but from what I’ve seen the last 2 weeks, Brian Orakpo should be receiving Heisman consideration if McCoy is. Any time you can rush 3 and still sack the QB with your DE*, it has much more of an impact on the game.
* References: N.Y. Giants vs. New England Patriots
beamwalker said:
October 20th, 2008 at 9:40 am
Interesting, although you pretty much proved him right.
Parlin Hall said:
October 20th, 2008 at 10:09 am
Good work. FWIW, in my experience the phrase “Weird stat” gets uttered right before a light-bulb clicks on.
There’s got to be a rational explanation why UT is low on turnovers forced and Iowa State high. Perhaps time of possession disparity? ISU may give its opponents many more more opportunities to turn the ball over.
t1climb1 said:
October 20th, 2008 at 10:25 am
Very interesting. Watching this team play the defense looks much more impressive than those stat lines would indicate. What do you attribute that to? Is it yards and points racked up on the 2nd team after the game is out of hand?
groover said:
October 20th, 2008 at 10:26 am
The yards per pass attempt stat would have to be normalized to provide any insight.
1. OSU has not played as pass-centric a schedule as UT has, so make it yppp compared to what the specific opponents have averaged over the season. The way Dr. Bob does.
2. Base it on only the first 3 quarters for all games that were blowouts and the starters were pulled early.
3. Trend it to account for the improvement of a young secondary over the course of the 7-game season.
Ojnab Bob said:
October 20th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Parlin, I think it’s explained simply by small sample size – 1-AA S Dakota State’s QB was miserable in the opener, and I think SDSU had 6-7 turnovers in that game. Take that data point away and ISU’s turnover numbers become a lot more normal.
lowery said:
October 20th, 2008 at 11:48 am
That is certainly part of it T1. Mizzou had 20 yards of offense until I’d had enough beer to forget I was tracking it.
H Ross Perot said:
October 20th, 2008 at 12:33 pm
I think an important part of football statistics that most people forget is that they only show a ver small part of the whole and in college they are subject to a very high variance in schedule strength (as opposed to the NFL)
If Offense is 1/3, defense is 1/3, and special teams is 1/3 (or approximate), then you are trying to extract truth from stats of 33% of a football game that is greatly effected by what goes on in the other 67% of the game.
While I think you can look back and find some truths from stats regarding a season after all 12-14 games have been played, it is very hard to use them predictively in the middle of the season with the variation in schedule and small sample sizes (both in games played and the phase of the game)
Parlin Hall said:
October 20th, 2008 at 2:14 pm
H. Ross is right about the small picture that midseason stats present. But there’s something worth noticing about the relationship between turnovers gained and time of possession–especially since some of the better Big 12 teams have forced fewer turnovers than those with poorer records.
The top six Big 12 teams in time of possession (UT, OSU, NU, KU, OU and CU, in that order) average approx. 11 forced turnovers a game. The bottom six (ISU, TT, TAMU, KSU, MU, and Baylor) average approx. 12 a game.
ISU’s early windfall helps make them an outlier with 20 (which exceeds by 5 the second place–both OSU and TT). Given its advantage in time of possession, NU is seriously underperforming with 8, and UT is also below the average with 10.
OSU is pretty remarkable in this category–almost exactly the time of possession average as UT, but five more turnovers gained on the season.
AustinYankee said:
October 20th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
Ross,
That giant sucking sound you’ve spoken of is due to OU.
TaylorTRoom said:
October 20th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Yards per pass attempt- if you count sacks as unsuccessful pass attempts, we have had 306 passes attempted by our opponents and given up 1726 yards for 5.6 ypa.
Bob in Houston said:
October 20th, 2008 at 6:12 pm
B12 quarterbacks have sagged a bit this week… nine are ranked in the top 22 in passing efficiency. Texas will face six of them.
LonghornScott said:
October 20th, 2008 at 6:37 pm
The staff often refers to a 3 and out as a turnover and I basically agree. It would be interesting to see how the turnovers stack up if 3 and outs are factored in… but that would take time to prove something I already know: Texas is playing the best defense in the conference.
Scipio Tex said:
October 20th, 2008 at 8:10 pm
4th downs, not 3 and outs.
LonghornScott said:
October 21st, 2008 at 4:20 am
f that. I want 3 and outs. I will not be denied!