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The BCS: The Rest of the Way

Posted by Scipio Tex on October 19th, 2008 under Uncategorized

These are the relevant players in the National Championship picture. It’s never too early for speculation and raging debate.

BCS Standings
1. Texas 7-0
2. Alabama 7-0
3. Penn State 8-0
4. Oklahoma 6-1
5. USC 5-1
6. Oklahoma State 7-0
7. Georgia 6-1
8. Texas Tech 7-0
9. Ohio State 7-1
10. Florida 5-1
11. Utah 8-0
12. Boise State 6-0
13. LSU 5-1

I’ll ignore Utah and Boise St for obvious reasons.

The clarity of the national championship picture appears to rest on a game between Ohio St and Penn St (assuming the winner TCB) and a series of brutal playoffs within the SEC and Big 12 with USC hanging out waiting for internecine warfare to squeeze their undeserving selves in on the weight of media love and a series of Pac 10 open weeks disguised as football teams.

Note: I only list the games that I believe are a challenge. Not the entirety of the remaining schedule. I assume a LSU win over Troy and a Texas win over Baylor.

SEC

The conference of great defenses, intense rivalries, and QBs who throw the ball like it’s a shot put is down to four teams. Each with their fate in their own hands.

LSU and Alabama vie for the SEC West championship berth; Florida and Georgia for the East.

LSU finishes with 5 of their last 6 at home. Interesting. This includes Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. It’s not insane to think they could win these games, it’s quite possible that they put a gris-gris on Bama.

Bama (7-0) goes @Tennessee, @ LSU, Auburn. Essentially, LSU on the road should be their only test, but Phil Fulmer could keep his job two more years with a win. We should pray for that on a number of levels. Tommy T could secure his own with one as well. Pray for that as well. When JP Wilson is your QB, you have a decent shot at losing against the Barking Carnival flag football team.

Florida (5-1) has an interesting stretch. They play Georgia and deal with four above average teams that I can’t see them losing to: S Carolina, Kentucky, Vandy, FSU. A win head-to-head against UGA allows them a slip-up, though that would ruin any national title hopes.

Georgia (6-1) is done but they just don’t know it. @ LSU, Florida, Kentucky, Georgia Tech. Good luck with that, Dawgs.

After all of that, you get a title game. If I were handicapping a title game winner, I like Florida (50%), Alabama (35%), LSU(10%), Georgia (5%) in that order.

Big 12

This Big 12 South is just brutal while the North essentially offers a bye to the Kansas/Missouri winner. The North/South imbalance in the Big 12 is back with vengeance though a favorable championship location and the chance of a crippled Big 12 South champion gives the North winner an outside shot.

There are four national title contenders – all in the Big 12 South. They will engage in a round robin of death.

Texas (7-0) credentials are unquestionable. Lose a game and we’ll need some dominos to fall into place. Lose a game late – as in the Big 12 title game – there are some psychological hurdles that seem insurmountable with the human voters. If that game is to the eventual Big 12 champion, obviously we’re SOL. The Murderer’s Row just won’t stop: OSU, @Tech, @KU.

Oklahoma State (7-0) is damn good but their schedule is vicious: @ Texas, @ Tech, OU. They can’t go through that stretch without a loss. They can put a loss on any team they play though.

Texas Tech (7-0) is primed to play the role of cockroach for someone’s national title shot. The schedule is a beating: @ KU, Texas, OSU, OU. All four in succession. No way, Raiders. However, they are fully capable of beating any of those four. A 2-2 record would be impressive.

Oklahoma (6-1) drew an easy Big 12 North slate, but they still finish the year with Tech at home and on the road against OSU. They need some help, but could fall into a Big 12 Title game and certainly a BCS bowl.

If I’m handicapping the Big 12 Champion, I’ll say (Texas 55%, OSU 15%, OU 15%, Mizzou 10%, Kansas 4%, Tech 1%)

Penn State/Ohio State/USC

Penn State/Ohio State is pretty straightforward. It’s a one game playoff in Columbus, OH. If Penn State wins out, the human pollsters will give Penn State sufficient juice to squeeze out a SEC or Big 12 one loss champion for a title game berth. If Ohio State wins and wins out, then it’s really all conjecture, but I can’t imagine human pollsters allowing another Buckeye debacle.

Penn State has @Ohio State, @Iowa, Michigan St.

Ohio State has Penn State, @ Northwestern, @ Illinois.

I believe PSU is a much better football team than Ohio State, but the Buckeyes offer a tough matchup with Pryor at QB running zone read with Wells. The key to the game is the Ohio St defense trying to match up with the Penn State speed on the perimeter and Jim Tressel not coaching like a giant sweater vested vagina.

USC has a joke of a remaining schedule and even though the computers rightfully hate them, the human pollsters can’t wait to make them their girlfriend. Sure they lost to a average Oregon State team but USC is SO TALENTED! I love talent! Particularly the indefinable sort that loses games to Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA! The hard truth is if Penn State goes down and the SEC & Big 12 all engage in self-destruction, USC may just be in. They face theoretical and dubious challenges at home with Cal and Notre Dame. Whatever. If we had their schedule, my reservations in Miami would be made.

The $1,000,000 question is how do the humans and computers rate a 12-1 SEC Champion against a 12-1 Big 12 Champion with an undefeated Penn State or one loss USC waiting in the wings? The truth is both 12-1 legit conference teams should play each other for the national title while Penn State weeps and USC wails but when you have a Northeastern press establishment composed of former high school tennis players that went to Hofstra, I’m not really willing to bet on anything involving their ability to perform qualitative and quantitative analysis on football.

Those are the horses. How do you see the race playing out?

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22 Responses

  1. milk said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 6:44 pm

    One interesting twist you did not mention is the possibility that Oregon State runs the table and wins the Pac X, thus (hopefully) barring Southern Cal from the MNC game.

  2. Chunk Daniel Truffle Shuffle said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 6:47 pm

    I dont know why everyone hates on the Pac 10 so often. Washington State is vastly underrated. They held USC to ONE pass attempt in the second half. That has to speak to something.

  3. Stuck in MN said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 6:48 pm

    There is no requirement that you be a conference champion to be in the title game. If anything, your scenario helps USC as it makes their loss look a little more acceptable.

  4. Scipio Tex said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 6:58 pm

    Stuck in MN:

    Exactly.

    Actually, the most damning indictment against Oklahoma St is that they only beat Washington State 39-13. If you can’t beat Washington State by 60+, you’re sleepwalking.

  5. milk said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 7:18 pm

    After Oklahoma a few years back, and also the comparative results of Michigan and Florida in 2006, I think voters would be pretty reluctant to send a team that couldn’t win it’s conference to the MNC game.

  6. Huckleberry said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 7:18 pm

    Not what you’re looking for (national championship scenarios), but looking at the computers, polls, and remaining schedules tells me that the Horned Frogs are likely in the BCS if they win out.

    I think a 1-loss TCU finishes ahead of an undefeated Boise State in the final BCS if they get that far.

  7. Scipio Tex said:

    October 19th, 2008 at 8:06 pm

    They should. They played people. That should be rewarded.

  8. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 3:24 am

    I’m going to take a look this week at the strengths and weaknesses of the Big 12 South teams remaining. One thing that gives Tech a chance is, besides the offense, they’re able to get pressure on the QB without blitzing. I think that’s a huge advantage in this league. It may not get us past Texas, but it will come in handy against teams with bad OT play (KU and OU). OSU only has 4 sacks out of the DL position this season and 8 sacks total. It’s going to be tough for any team to beat Tech, if they can’t get pressure on Harrell.

  9. TaylorTRoom said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 3:34 am

    I see two ways that Texas makes it to the BCS championship game-

    1. Win out. Using the Sagarins as a guideline, I see us as having about an 8% chance of winning every game left on the schedule, and then the B12 championship game.

    2. Drop a game against a good opponent, go to the B12 championship game (this scenario drops out if we lose to TT or OSU and they win the B12 south), and win it. This scenario requires other teams to lose games so we finish in the top 2 of the BCS ratings. I’ll put this at about 4%.

    Lot of games left, but this is fun to watch.

  10. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 3:55 am

    Also, I don’t think Texas will have as much trouble with OSU as you guys think. The Aggies outgained OSU in their contest, and I’m telling you that if A&M picks up 184 yards against you on the ground, then you’re going to have trouble stopping the teams with good OL talent in this league. Of course, 80 of that came on one run, but still. OSU scored on two pick 6’s and a punt return in the game. As far as the battle of the trenches, the teams weren’t that far apart.

  11. BRAGGonUT said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 4:22 am

    The voters will manipulate their votes to have a 1-loss SEC winner versus a 1-loss Big 12 winner. Too much has been said and written about the quality of those conferences to have them ignore that.

  12. Huckleberry said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 4:33 am

    Not to mention Ohio State fatigue and dare I say USC fatigue? After Ohio State beats Penn State this Saturday I think it guarantees what BRAGG said above.

    Plus the buildup regarding Big 12 offense versus SEC defense is exactly the kind of slobfest the media will love.

  13. PatronSaint said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 5:07 am

    I think the USC love/USC fatigue will come to a head and keep the Trojans right at No. 3 when the final poll is taken. And freedom shall ring.

  14. Texasholdem said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 5:32 am

    The Media would love any sort of a Texas/PSU/Alabama match up. It would give ESPN Classic a months worth of ratings.

  15. hiphopopotamus said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 5:41 am

    @ dedfischer – Any interest in doing a Q&A this week? During game week we quit pretending we know everything about every big xii team and actually ask someone with some knowledge.

  16. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 6:59 am

    hippo,

    Do you mean for the Tech/Texas game week or this week?

  17. hiphopopotamus said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 7:13 am

    This week. If you have any time & interest, drop me a line over at my blog or send me an e-mail.

  18. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 7:28 am

    What is your blog again?

  19. TaylorTRoom said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 7:46 am

    The PSU/tOSU game is…get ready for it…at “the ‘Shoe”, and at night.

  20. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 7:52 am

    I think OSU’s win over Mizzou on the road was impressive and definitely gives them some street cred. However, Mizzou’s problems are more deeply rooted this season. Their OL is just very average this season, and they’ve been exposed against quality opponents. Given the inconsistency caused by this weakness on offense, Eberflus’ crazy ass playcalling becomes counter productive.

  21. hiphopopotamus said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 9:08 am

    http://kansasfootball-itsbusinesstime.blogspot.com

  22. dedfischer said:

    October 20th, 2008 at 9:14 am

    Thanks, I’ve got it bookmarked and will try to get over there when I get caught up. We’ll touch base and set something up.

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  • admin commented on the blog post Top 10 Defensive Lapses   8 hours, 24 minutes ago

    I won’t even get started on the offense because there is no prayer in getting that changed this year.

    Well the year appears to be one more game. Thus, love to read your thoughts for next season.