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Texas/OU Analysis: Let’s Get It On
Posted by Scipio Tex on October 6th, 2008 under Football
It’s time.
Food tastes better, the suns shines brighter, and irritability to slights are magnified one thousandfold. Both fanbases – despite any degree of outward confidence – will be nursing ulcers by Wednesday. Over the next six days, I will mentally review scenarios in which Texas is blown out, we blow OU out, we win a tight defensive contest, we lose in a shootout, both teams brawl in the tunnel for so long that the game is canceled, Jermaine Gresham scores four touchdown on jump balls….and so on.
The only cure is the reality of the game itself. The sound of both teams in the tunnel and the fervor of the crowd. Then, at that moment, whatever your doubts, you’re absolutely sure that WE ARE GOING TO KICK THEIR ASS.
Texas is fairly accustomed to being the game other teams have circled on their schedule. We derive a certain arrogant satisfaction from that. Even when we lose, it’s done with an exchange of knowing glances and eye rolling as Team X storms the field and their coach gets an immediate contract extension. Boy, this really means a lot to you, we think.
Forget all of that. That all goes out of the window in Dallas. OU is the only game where we’re humbled and placed on equal psychological footing with our opponent because we need this every bit as badly as they do. Any Texas fan who states otherwise is a fucking liar or a contrarian to the point of masturbating idiocy. If you believe Texas A&M is our true football rival, then you have no conception of what the word means. It took Mack Brown a long time to understand that and I’m not completely sure if he still does. I’m willing to guess that Will Muschamp will understand it the moment he walks out on the field and wants to puke up his guts from the circulating adrenaline.
So how do you handicap a game in which upsets are the norm and scholarship space eaters routinely become legend?
First, let’s talk about how you don’t do it. Any attempt at transitive extrapolation in this game is almost meaningless when both teams are strong and improving. I don’t particularly care what Florida Atlantic did to us or what Brian Kelly and the Bearkats did to them. If you’ve paid any attention to either team, you see two teams getting better each week. The two teams you’ll be writing about no longer exist. So you have to look for persistent trends that are hard-wired in each team.
Nor does it make sense to take last year’s game, blame it on a fumble as the difference, see that we’re clearly better this year and then predict victory. That doesn’t hold water on about fourteen different logical levels.
What you’re left with is what you matters in any game: matchups, tendency, personnel, and some attempt to quantify the unquantifiable.
Offense:
Their OL is strong in pass protection and overrated in run blocking. They are not the run game maulers they are portrayed as, but rather a very large, fairly cohesive group that does a nice job of keeping Sam Bradford’s jersey clean. They are immovable objects, not unstoppable forces. They hold their ground. Yes, we all know we average more yards rushing per game than they do, but what they can do that we cannot is confidently convert 3rd and short and punish your defense if you try to play their run shorthanded. Their runs might not go for 40, but they can get 8. They’re also capable of pounding the ball in inside the 10. So if I write about OU having an advantage in the running game, I’m talking about that. Retorting that we average more yards per game because of Colt’s running misses the point entirely.
At RB, DeMarco Murray’s knee twinge has transformed him from a home run threat to a reliable banger. He still has his skills and his vision, but the body isn’t always willing to go where the mind tells it. Chris Brown is very solid and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get equal carries. If Bradford gouges us early and we have to play a dime to contend with their passing game, I think the OU RB’s become a factor. Otherwise, I’m not deeply concerned.
QB, WR & TE is where we run into trouble.
Sam Bradford is a great player. His accuracy down the field is freakish and our defensive back’s margin for error is none. We’ll see a number of plays where our guy has excellent coverage and Bradford places it in the receiver’s arms through a six inch window like a newborn. The beauty of Bradford – and a difference from last year – is his willingness to use every receiver and not pre-determine what he wants to do before the snap. I have no doubt we’ll show him different looks and force him to think, but we’re not a zone team – all of our rivers end up in the same lake of man coverage. He’ll sniff that out and make some plays downfield. We have to be resilient. When he’s on and getting protection, it’s basically a guy running a Google search on ‘Open Wide Receiver’ and then scanning the results to see where he wants to click.
Look at Bradford’s receiver mix.
Johnson 26 468 18.0 5td
Iglesias 23 401 17.4 5td
Gresham 16 278 17.4 4td
Broyles 13 256 19.7 3td
This is a problem. Look at the yards per reception, the touchdown distribution, and the catch distribution. It will shock no one if any one of those four have a 100 yard receiving day against us. It will shock everyone if any Texas receiver other than Shipley, Cosby or possibly Ogbonnaya has more than 40. The implications of this are pretty clear: Oklahoma has the luxury of rolling out four legitimate threats and picking on the matchups that suit them. Iglesias on Palmer, Gresham on a safety or LB. If we choose to help our weakest links with a safety, we’re placing a guy like Chykie Brown on an island and flipping coins with Manuel Johnson. Johnson only needs to win 1/3 of those matchups to cue up Boomer Sooner.
Defense
Their CB play has been better than I thought it would be (Brian Jackson specifically) and I fully expect them to walk up on Cosby and Shipley with safety help over the top and dare us to beat them. Colorado certainly had some success doing so. Nic Harris is a very physical safety, but I’m not sure he’s a guy OU wants running stride for stride with a wide receiver. So they’ll protect him and let him bang on people in front of him. I don’t think OU feels they need to outnumber our running game unless they’re just being sadistic.
OU’s LBs are ranked 1, 2, 3 in total tackles. OLBs Keenan Clayton and Travis Lewis can both run and that’s more important to the Sooners in this match-up than their ability to take on an OT with leverage and hold their ground. Lewis has been a great move to LB – he dominated the TCU game. They’re not huge guys, but our running game develops laterally – not downhill. They’re at no disadvantage. Further, we’ll look to make our big plays off-schedule – with Ogbonnaya in the flat, Colt scrambling – and two guys who can run are exactly what you want. Ryan Reynolds isn’t really exploitable from our perspective – he’s safe in the middle and his job will be to bang on the run and blitz to create one-on-one matchups inside for OU’s DTs on our guards. Maybe we can isolate Peter Ullman on him on a crossing route! Sigh.
Much of OU’s defensive effectiveness in this rivalry is predicated on OU’s defensive coaches being able to isolate tendency and give their guys a reasonable hunch where the ball is headed based on a tell. That’s how you end up with nine OU defenders running to a gap before the ball has reached the RB’s hands and them famously calling out our plays before the snap. And why they can be pantsed if you show that tendency and do something completely different. Greg Davis has coached 40 quarters of Red River Rivalry. At least half of those have been from a fetal position. So I make no promises.
OU’s DL is very good. I think Gerald McCoy is the second best pure run stopper in the league behind Roy Miller. He and Granger should combine to give our interior OL fits. Auston English isn’t putting up gaudy pass rush stats this year, but he and Jeremy Beal are effective at fulfilling their role and they’ve opened up a lot of opportunity for Travis Lewis (3.5 sacks) and Keenan Clayton (2.0 sacks) to come on stunts. The story of the game will be their DTs ability to collapse the pocket and their edge player’s ability to handle Colt when he scrambles. If they can make that play, cue up The Greg Davis Cotton Bowl Experience.
Special teams
OU’s kick off return game is robust, but the rest of their kicking game is a bit of a disgrace. Punter Mike Knall should be good for a Red River shank. Opponents have also had some success in their return games against the Sooners, but we’re not really set up for that. Could some of their ST issues turn the tide in a defensive struggle? You bet. But it’s first necessary to have a defensive struggle. So let’s cross that bridge when it’s 14-13 in the late 3rd quarter.
If I could boil this game down to three areas, it would be:
1. Red Zone Scoring
2. Colt vs. OU’s Containment
3. Our ability to pressure Bradford
Red Zone
This is the ballgame. For both teams. We’re 23 of 26 on the year scoring TDs in the red zone, 25 of 26 scoring overall. Our defense is holding teams to 4 of 15 TDs and 8 of 15 scoring overall. Very encouraging. However, OU has scored on every trip into the red zone, with TDs on 23 of 24 trips. Their defense hasn’t been quite as resilient as ours, allowing TDs in half of their red zone tries (7 of 14) and scores in 9 of 14. Still, that’s salty and it’s pretty clear that both teams are accustomed to imposing their will on their opponents inside the 20 on both sides of the ball. How will each react to failure and the step up in competition?
We will have our opportunities and we have to get 6 instead of 3. OU must do the same. If OU moves up and down the field early but ends each drive in 3, the sound of OU fans shifting uncomfortably in their seats will be perceptible. Of course, they might just try to slice through this dynamic by scoring from 50 yards out. Something we’re less likely to accomplish.
I’m not confident in our ability to pound the ball in from 1st and goal from the 9 yard line. We’re going to spread the field, line up with an empty backfield, and Colt will count OU defenders inside the box. If it’s low, we’re running a QB draw. If it’s high, we’re throwing it up to Buckner or Shipley. We saw that QB draw play against Arkansas for a reason. We’ll see it again when it counts.
Unfortunately for us, OU has multifaceted red zone options. Unlike Rice, Colorado, or UTEP. They can go Jumbo package and pound, they can exploit Gresham on a jump ball off of play action, they can spread us out and isolate Ryan Palmer in the flat, or they can make us worry about all the aforementioned and throw a little swing pass to their RB to test our discipline and assignment overload. We’ve been dynamite in the red zone to date and that owes a lot to Will Muschamp and the heart of our players, but we haven’t faced an offense this mulifaceted. We’ll have no ability to load up on any one key. We’ll just need to win straight up.
Colt vs. OU’s containment
Pretty straightforward. If we’re going to make plays down the field or convert 3rd and 9 with some regularity, it’s going to be off of Colt’s improvisation. This isn’t just a matter of team speed for OU, it’s also a matter of discipline and finishing the tackle. Colt is a hell of a lot stronger in his hips and legs than defenders think. Similarly, OU can’t just stand there in dumb containment. They have to pressure, but with care. If Colt can repeatedly extend the play, our receivers increase their chances for a coverage bust tenfold. If OU does a nice job of containment, you’re counting on us driving systematically down the field on a diet of 6 yard hitches and 2 yard runs. Good luck.
Our DL’s ability to pressure Bradford
It’s going to be a game of chicken. Walk up our corners and dare Bradford to hold on to the ball and pray the pass rush gets there before the wagon gets pulled around by ponies. Miller, Houston, Lewis need to have the games of their lives inside and Orakpo, Kindle, Melton and Acho will need to play like demons. Bradford isn’t a running threat, so we’ll play a lot of games on our DL and not really sweat contain. If we win here, the dominos start to fall our way.
Right now, I’m not prepared to make a solid score prediction, but the tea leaves read for an OU victory.
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Trips Right commented on the blog post March Madness open thread 30 minutes ago
My Ohio state pick looks better.
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RRR commented on the blog post March Madness Open thread 56 minutes ago
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D W commented on the blog post March Madness open thread 5 hours, 9 minutes ago
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BrickHorn said:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
I have yet to read or hear even a single commentator predict a Texas win. Given that everyone seems to think this will be a close game, and that both teams are unbeaten and in the Top 5, the complete dearth of Texas picks is flat-out odd.
Scipio Tex said:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
That’s interesting, Brick. I haven’t really had a chance to read many predictions other than the ones I hear on College GameDay, but I pretty much disregard those opinions.
I don’t think we’re going to get blown out or anything. I just think they’re a bit more multifaceted than we are.
So I end up evaluating it like any other game, though I do so with the full awareness that anything can happen in this rivalry.
Bartoncreek said:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Nice breakdown. Turnovers and STs will be key. We seem to be fairly solid in both areas so far this year. There might be an advantage in ST play for Texas. Neither team turns it over much and we haven’t forced a lot of of them so far. That is an x-factor.
One factor that I think will come into play is the health of the QBs. This has the makings of an oldschool late 70’s early 80’s Texas-OU game. Those were hard hitting tests of will. These teams will come out looking for blood. With Colt running around and with Bradford standing still, either one could get knocked out. If they do, game over. The backup QBs can not get the job done this time.
Muschamp kicked OU’s ass once before in the title game. I have faith that he will have us ready. Should be a hell of a game.
Jeff said:
October 6th, 2008 at 3:43 pm
How in the seven hells does Johnson “only” average 18 per catch? Everytime I see that fewker he’s as open as if he’d come off the sideline after the snap.
miketag said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:09 pm
At the most basic level, OU tends to win this game because they shut down your running game, make you one dimensional, then blitz the hell out of your QB. Your consistent lack of a run game heading into this matchup should be very worrisome. Your best hope is that Greg Davis has been hiding Chiles and Whitaker for this game and they will break out and provide a running game for you. I can bet that you will see Chiles and McCoy in the backfield at the same time in the 1st quarter. I think OU contains McCoy and abuses your secondary. I see OU winning by 3 TDs. That is unless Davis comes up with something innovative, which would be a first for this series.
Scipio Tex said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
miketag:
You won’t see Chiles. I’m pretty sure on that one.
And it’s unlikely that Mack would allow Fozzy – who hasn’t played in our last three games – to play against Oklahoma. Not saying it won’t happen – just very out of character.
BRAGGonUT said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:15 pm
I think a ST teams bust or TD will be a big factor in the game. Given our edge, that should certainly favor us.
BRAGGonUT said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:16 pm
Chris O has been named starter.
Scipio Tex said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:18 pm
Translation: We will be throwing 40 times.
BiggUggly said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:23 pm
We need a new rule for this game, called “leave a coach at home”.
If OU leaves Stoops in Norman and we leave GD GD in Austin, Texas has a chance.
BRAGGonUT said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:34 pm
I think we throw 60 times. And think we are capable of winning with that approach.
Bubba Jacques said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:36 pm
“scholarship space eaters routinely become legend?”
I have no idea what you are talking about.
anonymous said:
October 6th, 2008 at 4:45 pm
Scipio:
Good write up. But after reading both your’s and Applewhite’s previews, its hard to see how Texas moves the ball. If we can’t run against their front seven, how do we avoid a 2004 or 2001 type outcome? We have shown no ability to get deep either, and if they have the ability to leave their safeties back. . . Throw in the loss of a viable pass-catching tight end and you have what seems to me to be a recipe for a team that will struggle to score points (perhaps any at all).
What am I missing?
Hippie said:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Is it possible to overstate the impact of the Irby loss as it relates to the outcome of this game?
Hippie said:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:11 pm
…to the outcome of this game?
dedfischer said:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
If OU can get pressure with their front 4 – OU by 2 TDs. If they have to bring 5 – Texas by a field goal. Any more than that, and Texas by 2 TDs.
Vasherized said:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
He means unheralded players often step up and make game-changing plays.
A special teams punt block, forced fumble in the red zone, eye gouging Bradford under the scrum.
Whatever it takes.
Evil E said:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:47 pm
We are going to feel the full brunt of this spring’s J. Charles/J. Finley loss on Saturday. With those two home-run threats, we would have had an even playing field; without them, we are facing a blow-out.
I’ll be in the stands for my 23rd(!) consecutive year hoping to even up my career record (10-11-1), but it doesn’t look good.
Stoney Clark said:
October 6th, 2008 at 5:55 pm
Vasherized needs to check out user names before posting responses to them.
n-ea said:
October 6th, 2008 at 6:20 pm
Good write up as usual scip. To me this game comes down to 2 things.
1) We’ve got to do some things to suplement for a real running game. I’m hoping we’ll see a few well timed screens and swing passes to our RB’s. Unfortunately I’ve never seen us run a screen pass to a RB that’s worth a damn. As my father says, shit in one hand and hope in the other and see which one fills up faster.
2) Probably more importantly, but Our front 4 have to play balls out. This is no secret and you did touch on it, though I would add, Can our DL get a pass rush on Bradford and still contain there run assignments? I don’t think Demarco has lost much of a step and if he hits the next level of our D without getting touched, he’s going to break a few long ones.
kujotx said:
October 6th, 2008 at 6:36 pm
Our success hinges on Mack’s ability to get Davis to go back up into Bellmont to fetch Mack’s “lucky whistle”, while the bus peels out of the Neuhaus-Royal parking lot without him.
3-14, 14-63, 13-65, 0-12. Yeah, I’ve learned he isn’t “holding back anything for 0U” with these stellar scoring numbers.
HoustonHusker said:
October 6th, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Scipio,
You may be the most gifted writer since PHX Horn that I’ve ever read on the internet. Actually, you’re more gifted than PHX ever was, but I do miss him. You’re the most gifted–by far and I really enjoy your articles.
Texas can win this game because OU may make mistakes that the Horns pounce on. I’m going to say Horns-31, OU-24. I think this is Texas’ year, again, and the D is just outstanding. Colt is playing with extreme confidence and they look unstoppable.
Defense wins the game and so the Horns end up on top.
Great article, Sir!
HH
Macanudo said:
October 6th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
I have a bad feeling that Bradford is going to destroy our secondary. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on Texas to cover because I always have that weird sense of loyalty to my school. But I have a feeling OU covers and rather easily.
NateHeupel said:
October 6th, 2008 at 8:39 pm
“If they have to bring 5 – Texas by a field goal.”
Make this make sense, ded. UT has exactly two legit receiving threats, three if you count Chris O, and no TE to worry about. How exactly does that spell defeat for OU if they have to bring a blitz?
Kafka said:
October 6th, 2008 at 10:21 pm
Miketag is right:
“At the most basic level, OU tends to win this game because they shut down your running game, make you one dimensional, then blitz the hell out of your QB.”.
I don’t care how good the UT O line is, OU will figure out a way to apply pressure with a blitzer. Especially since OU will be playing a lot of nickel (why should OU respect the UT run game?) so it will be easier for OU to construct zone blitzes.
UT is going to have to run much less and throw much more. And they have to be quick throws to negate the OU blitz (unless colt is rolling out to buy time). UT is going to have to be patient on O and be willing to run a lot of clock on their drives. This will help the UT D from getting worn out by the 4th quarter.
If UT throws short a lot, they might want to consider returning Malcolm Williams from exhile. He is a strong guy who can take a big hit better than Kirkendoll, Collins and Buckner. K, C, and B need to really wrap up the ball after they catch it to avoid fumbling after a big hit. Malcolm is also a much better blocker than those guys.
Stoops will try to force colt to throw to somebody other than Quan, Ship, or Ogbonnaya.
UT cannot afford to play a TE who is not a receiving threat. Much better to go with 4 wide or add an H back or FB who is actually an offensive threat. Cody would probably be great at H back or FB because he blocks well plus gives you another running threat.
On D, my guess is that the horns play 4-3 unless it is an obvious passing down (then it will be a nickel or dime) and keep the safeties deep to prevent big plays. The UT front 7 is going to have to defend the run with little safety help. My guess is they do a good job.
UT will pressure Bradford because there is no other alternative. Look for Muschamp to dial in lots of zone blitzes.
My guess is that we see a lot of quick outs directed at Palmer. I would not be surprised if Palmer is replaced as the game progresses.
I am encouraged because, as part of Mack’s effort to change his tendencies for the OU game, he has changed the team motto from
“Can’t we all just get along” to
“Bitches have to be kicked”.
burdine88 said:
October 7th, 2008 at 2:50 am
Missing Irby is going to be tough.
Somebody other than Shipley or Cosby is probably going to have to have a great game receiving ala Ivan Williams 2002 NU (6 receptions, 111 yards) for Texas to prevail.
Which of our young receivers is most likely to step and take advantage of the attention Shipley and Cosby are going to get from OU’s defense?
NBMisha said:
October 7th, 2008 at 3:02 am
I’m also in the camp that sees our narrowness in offensive capability as a poor matchup to the OU defense, and thus see our O struggling. And a long day on the field for the Texas D will not be good.
The DL having the game of their lives and hassling Bradford will be important, but we’ll win or lose by McCoy and the offense having the game of their lives under incredible pressure.
On balance, OU by 10, but any outcome would not surprise.
dedfischer said:
October 7th, 2008 at 4:30 am
There appears to be only three teams in this league with good enough DL play to defend the run with an honest front and get pressure without blitzing: OU, Texas, and Tech in that order and I think Tech is borderline. However, we’ll stick with it even if we can’t. It’s a tremendous advantage in this league as it allows for improved pass defense against these balanced attacks. Mizzou doesn’t quite make the cut. They have to overload against the run or blitz. I will be curious as to how the Texas front 4 plays in this game as you might have a tremendous advantage over Mizzou in this regards. Interesting to see how these top teams in the conference match up.
Bartoncreek said:
October 7th, 2008 at 4:44 am
One thing to consider is this:
Bob is 1-5 in his last 6 TX/OU/BCS games
Mack is 4-1 in his last 5 TX/OU/BCS games
Small game and Mack aren’t what they used to be. Mikey is long gone and he hasn’t been a good big game coach since he left. Mack on the other hand seems to be getting better. Hell, if JC doesn’t fumble, Bob is 0-6. Pretty lousy no matter how OU fan spins it. Add Muschamp to our side and I’ll take my chances anytime against Stoopsie.
Fritz said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:00 am
I agree with those that said that we shouldn’t even line up a TE in this game. Johnson and Chris O are better options as H-backs with 3 WRs. I want to see six balls 40 yards (downfield) in the air in this game.
I’m thinking this game comes down to how the front four can do putting pressure on Bradford. We’ve got a good shot here – Houston, Miller, Lewis, Orakpo, Acho, Jones etc. I feel good about our LBs behind them – Muck, Kindle, Norton stopping their running game. Like Scipio said, the dominoes could start falling our way based on this.
bateshorn said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:07 am
Call me silly, but what’s to prevent OU from doubling Quan and Shipley and stopping the run with their front 7? Hell, you can probably spy Chris O with a LB. At that point, McCoy is our offense and how long before he fails to get up after running downfield? I don’t see an OU blowout, but I’m having a difficult time imagining a Texas victory that doesn’t involve the sooners turning the ball over 4-5 times.
ponderos said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:07 am
Bartoncreek
October 7, 2008 at 4:44 am One thing to consider is this:
Bob is 1-5 in his last 6 TX/OU/BCS games
Mack is 4-1 in his last 5 TX/OU/BCS games
Certainly not the dumbest stat I’ve ever seen, but it’s up there.
Nordberg said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:07 am
I’ve we’re going to run Ogbannaya/Johnson with our typical zone, it’s going to fail spectacularly. It makes no sense that we would implement a completely new running game strategy for this game, but I find myself praying that’s the case.
No Fozzy = Nordberg actually hoping that McCoy throws 50 times and leads our team in carries. This may have to be his game.
Nordberg said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:09 am
Dammit. That first word should be “If”.
RansomStoddard said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:09 am
blowu 42, good guys 20. 1. We have Greg Davis, the village idiot, and they don’t. 2. I don’t see a UT secondary stacked with NFL prospects the way some do. I see some guys who couldn’t cover me. Stoops and Bradford are drooling. 3. With no legit homerun threats, we can’t score enough to keep up with them.
If the line stays at blowu -6, I’m going to make a fortune.
huge said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:26 am
only way i see a texas victory is to win the turnover battle and score on special teams
not out of the question
i’m missing the game for the 2nd time since 93. the other miss was the 12-0 game, snapping that really important “not shutout” streak. hopefully something equally as bad does not happen this time around
Art Vandelay said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:33 am
Scipio,
Great work – as usual. Before reading your post I was feeling we could keep it close, and possible win if we get a few breaks. I’m hoping you are suffering from Texas/OU week syndrome. The week starts with the feeling that you need keep your emotions in tact, and you end up giving the sooners too much credit. By Friday at 10:00am you are pacing around the office playing Texas Fight and drinking waxy beers in preparation.
Hook ‘em!
BrickHorn said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:40 am
What in the hell is the matter with you people? Reading all these timid predictions and deferential OU praise, I feel like I’ve accidentally navigated my interwebbing machine to The Vagina Monologues blog.
Texas rolls, 34-13.
NateHeupel said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:57 am
Bartoncreek:
That analysis is as irrelevant and illogical as anything I’ve ever seen. And I post on OU message boards, which means I’ve seen a LOT of irrelevant and illogical things.
Bob’s last 6 TX/OU/BCS games: 2007 OU-TX, 2007 Fiesta, 2006 OU-TX, 2006 Fiesta, 2005 OU-TX, 2004 BCS Championship
Mack’s last 6 TX/OU/BCS games: 2007 OU-TX, 2006 OU-TX, 2005 BCS Championship, 2005 OU-TX, 2004 Rose Bowl, 2004 OU-TX.
This makes Mack 4-2. I guess you wanted to avoid proving that Texas wildly underachieved as a result of incompetent coaching in 2006 and 2007 by not bringing it to everyone’s attention that UT did NOT win the conference in either year.
I also love how you decided to selectively exclude the 2004 OU/TX loss, but include the 2004 Rose Bowl win. Let’s try using something you’re clearly not familiar with. It’s called logic.
Rule 1: 2005 and before is OUT. Sorry, spanky, but including a year with Vince Young on the squad says ZERO about Mack’s coaching skills.
Rule 2: Big 12 Title games count. They testify to a coach’s ability to win the “other” big games (like, say, Texas A&M or Missouri).
Now, after applying logic to your concept:
OU: 2007 Fiesta, 2007 Big 12 CG, 2007 OU-TX, 2006 Fiesta, 2006 Big 12 CG, 2006 OU-TX. RECORD:3-3
UT: 2007 OU-TX, 2006 OU-TX
RECORD:1-1
Wow.
ponderos said:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:00 am
Nate. I’m waiting for an explanation of how a game involving a 3rd party has anything whatsoever to do with this one.
Nordberg said:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:48 am
“I don’t see a UT secondary stacked with NFL prospects the way some do. I see some guys who couldn’t cover me.”
If you can beat Chykie Brown on a regular basis then you need to be playing on Sundays.
JUICE said:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:50 am
We have no TE, no real RB, no 3rd WR, and the Colorado DE ran circles around our RT. Add the built-in 7 points we cede them on coaching (we used our trick plays vs. Rice, as usual), and Stoops’ taste for the jugular (makes for a better post-game pic in front of the scoreboard) and you have the potential for a very ugly game for the Horns.
We won’t run back a kick. We might block one. If we do, and it is close in the 4th, Texas could win on a Colt McCoy busted play. But otherwise, I think we are in for a long and unpleasant day on the fairgrounds.
the_ouskull said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:01 am
Brilliant, and unlike most Whorns, unbiased, analysis. You’re welcome at Soonerfans.com anytime, as far as I’m concerned.
jr.ewing.78 said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:01 am
As big a Horn fan as I am, I’ve been conditioned over the past 8 years to lower my expectations for this one. So long as Stoops is in charge up there he will have them ready to win by whatever means necessary. I don’t have that same kind of faith in Mack and his assistants, despite how well our athletes may match up or how the rest of the season has gone.
It was a nice break in 2005 and 2006 but after last year I am back to getting that same old post-dot-com bust early October feelings of dread like all of those other years.
It all feels so familiar: OU is a slightly better team with a much better coach.
Nordberg said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:15 am
The best assistant coach is on our sideline, if that makes you feel any better.
UTIceberg said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:15 am
I don’t want to sell ousucks short, but they just don’t have it in them this year.
I know we all love to bemoan GD, but he really has been a changed man since ‘05. Not that he’s gonna do anything overly spectacular this weekend, but he’s certainly not going to stand in our way. He and the offense will put some points on the board.
The defense is gonna be where we win (or lose) this game. The sooners have some serious weapons on offense, but they rely on good pass protection. Scipio, I guess I’m talking about your “ability to get pressure on Bradford” point. I really think this is the difference here. Our front 7 have looked amazing thus far. While the level of competiton is significnatly better, I see no reason we don’t keep getting in the backfield and disrupting their flow, timing, etc. The game will be tight until late when at some critical juncture, we get just enough pressure on ou to force a bad decision or sack that ends up being the turning point. This will be the difference in the game.
Texas – 28
ousucks – 20
MilkmanDan said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:24 am
HenryJames said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:29 am
I hate you.
Its ON! said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:41 am
The Texas Defense will when the game! no if’s or and’s or But’s..bottom line.
Bob in Houston said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:44 am
I find myself siding with RS… possible moral victory by keeping it close. Hate it, though.
Vasherized said:
October 7th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Nice work Dan. We do too.
Tobias said:
October 7th, 2008 at 8:47 am
I dont know what happened to our big play wide receivers or running game…i dont want to blame it on 9/11, but it certainly didnt help
53 TEX said:
October 7th, 2008 at 9:12 am
We have to face it.Success for Texas has to go thru Norman(even though the game is played in Dallas). We have not achieved because Of Bob Stoops.He just may be the best college coach in the country.Look at his record:5 or 6 conf.
championships and has been in 3 nc games.He recruits the same caliber of players as Mack.He
demands each player be accountable for his actions on the field.He is a great developer and motivator who rewards his players with excellent game plans. Mack is so much the opposite.I hear from time to time that he wants
to step down from coaching in 2-3 years.If so this is our big opportunity to turn this OU
series around.
BatesHorn said:
October 7th, 2008 at 9:26 am
I agree with other posters and pundits: It’s hard to overstate how badly Irby’s loss pinches us in this game.
Galoot said:
October 7th, 2008 at 9:27 am
Great article! Excellent analysis and I like your writing style. I’ll be back often.
apache driver said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:00 am
wow….what a great forum. this was linked on one of the ou fan websites. wish i would have found you guys earlier. great piece and great comments from all.
i am one sooner fan who obviously wants to kick your butts, but i have a great respect for your tradition and program, and what this game means to college football.
it’s nice to have a civil conversation about the greatest game ever and some poke some fun at each other.
here’s to an injury free, great RRR.
boomer sooner and hook’em horns!
C&CDean said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:02 am
Scipio,
I see you are still one of the more brilliant horns I’ve seen/met on the innerwebs. Very well thought out and objectively written as most of what I’ve seen from you over the years has been. I wish you and your team good health this Saturday.
Huckleberry said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:03 am
OU scoring against Texas since Carl Reese retired:
2004 – 12 (34.77, 17.9, 25.75, 25.10)
2005 – 12 (26.92, 16.4, 25.75, 17.25)
2006 – 10 (30.29, 18.3, 23.01, 24.57)
2007 – 28 (42.29, 25.3, 27.06, 40.08)
In parentheses is the average number of points per game that OU scored, we allowed, the national average in those years, then the log5 expectation for the number of points OU should have scored against us. I’ll admit, I’m a little worried about our defense in this game because of OU’s holding and Bradford’s accuracy. But as shown above, OU has failed to do even what they were supposed to do against our defense the past four years. Only once have they even been within a touchdown of their expected point total against us, and that was during a 45-12 asskicking in 2005.
ponderos said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:06 am
I miss Carl Reese.
BrickHorn said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:07 am
Huck – what does your model predict that OU should score on us this season? For that matter, do you have similar figures for Texas’ predicted/actual performance against OU?
Bartoncreek said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:11 am
I knew calling out Bob’s Choke Show would bring out the Sooners. Funny stuff. Love this week. Can’t wait ’til Saturday. Just f’ing with you, but I do hate Stoopsie and he has been gagging a lot in some big games lately.
I’ll still take my chances with Muschamp over anybody on the Sooner staff. We will see Saturday, but OU wins easy on paper. Irby is just a killer for us this week.
Huckleberry said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:12 am
28.62 for OU this year. Haven’t run anything else. It actually looks like I screwed up a factor somewhere, but it shouldn’t be a major deal. I will clean it up and edit the above post.
ponderos said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:14 am
Bartoncreek. Sometimes yeah, I wish OU could go to a lesser bowl and beat up on some 8-3 Pac 10 team rather than winning the Big 12 and going to a BCS, but then I realize what it would take to get there and I reconsider.
Nordberg said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:18 am
You’re the most sensitive motherfucker on the internet.
C&CDean said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:21 am
Dang, a bunch of the oldtimers over here. Ponderos, Henry James, Huck, Nordberg, iceberg, misha, Vasherized…kinda feels like old-home week.
BTW, this is a cool site. Glad I was told about it.
Fromnyc said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Great write-up. Looking forward to the “war”.
As said by others, this game will be won or lost in the trenches; with the exception of game turning turnovers. Imo the team that comes closest to having a more balanced attack will be the winner. The stats at the end of the first half should be illustrative of which team will be ultimately successful.
ouredman said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:34 am
As much as it pains me to say nice things to Texas fans this week, I must admit this was a great read! I think you’ve captured the feeling of the game perfectly.
Vasherized said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Welcome, Dean. (Cue the Good, Bad, & The Ugly intro)
I see that single brain cell is still alive and well?
I look forward to your thoughts on the game. Let me guess – OU by 10?
Huckleberry said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:44 am
Oh, and for the record, this model does not account for schedule difficulty. I say that because I just ran the Texas offensive numbers and here they are (same time frame but this one can be described as “since Mike Stoops left Oklahoma”):
2004 – 0 (35.25, 16.8, 25.75, 24.07)
2005 – 45 (50.15, 23.1, 25.75, 46.56)
2006 – 28 (35.92, 17.3, 23.01, 28.18)
2007 – 21 (37.23, 20.3, 27.06, 28.94)
Expected Texas total this weekend based on the model is 31.19 points. Of course, my overall ratings say that Texas will lose by 12.55 points despite the apparent 2.5 point advantage in this model. Essentially our schedule has not been nearly as hard as Oklahoma’s from a raw point totals perspective. Let’s hope that this model is right and the ratings are wrong. After all, the ratings say that our schedule has been nearly as hard but we haven’t dominated the same. I’m inclined to say that the points total model is less optimized than the ratings, but that’s no fun. What’s Texas/OU without hope?
ponderos said:
October 7th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Nordberg. You either need a whole lot of simmer or bigger panties to handle even a modicum of smack.
Clint A. Adams said:
October 7th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Mike Knall is more likely to pin a 99 yard punt on the UT 1 inch line with the ball standing on end and doing a river dance than he is to shank it.
While I agree that Sam Bradford isn’t a running threat, I think most Sooner fans are more than happy that he can roll out under pressure and throw an off-balance 70 yard bomb to Manny, Iggy or Broyles. The kid’s got pocket presence and that matters more than being a stellar runner.
It’s 2:54 P.M. and Texas fans are still griping about OU not being called for holding? Rest assured, if John “Unholy” Bible or Randy “Meth” Christal are calling the ‘Red River War’, they will call holding on the Sooners even if a UT player is kicking them in the jimmy.
OkieRover said:
October 7th, 2008 at 11:35 am
This was really well researched. And surprisingly unbiased. Good work. I know this will be a great game. Go Sooners.
C&CDean said:
October 7th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Vasherized,
In all honesty, my guts are in exactly the uproar Scip so eloquently describes above.
If OU plays a perfect game and your boys stub their toe, we’re looking at another 65-13 type cornholing. If UT plays a perfect game, and our boys stub their toe, we’re looking at a 10-14 point UT win. If both teams play perfect, OU by about 10.
Of course my analysis doesn’t take any of the voodoo/mojo/planet alignment/craphole officiating/etc. that can sometimes rear it’s ugly head in this series ie. your starter going down (Applewhite?) and James Brown coming off the bench and whooping us, Gar-fucking-dere (I still hate him after all these years), and the Standridge interception that wasn’t called.
Weird shit happens in these games man. Seriously weird shit.
BrickHorn said:
October 7th, 2008 at 12:34 pm
I want to revise my prediction. Earlier I predicted a score of 34-13 in favor of the Horns. New shit has come to light, and I’m now predicting that Texas will win 31.19 – 28.62.
Texoz said:
October 7th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
C&CDean, these teams are fairly evenly matched. It’ll take a lot of turnovers by one team to turn it into a blow out.
The biggest cornholing happening this weekend will be at the US Treasury.
Turk 182 said:
October 7th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
great read. great take. not as comfortable touting us as a favorite as you are. The DT issue is one that I am not comfortable with and could prove to be a deciding factor in this game. English has been a bit of let down…wondering if he ever gets back on track.
“but I’m not sure [nic harris is] a guy OU wants running stride for stride with a wide receiver.”–true.
HenryJames said:
October 7th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
What’s going on with Duke Robinson?
BRAGGonUT said:
October 7th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
Was he kicked out of an all-you-can-eat buffet?
Doperbo said:
October 7th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Wilson make him drink puke again?
p said:
October 7th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
New guy here………..
No disrespect to OU fans, but OU hasn’t been the same team since 2003. That being said, I think we have a real chance as long as we don’t turn it over a bit, and here are the reasons why.
First of all we could barely generate pressure with our front four last year. Orakpo was playing injured, and as much as I like Okam and Lokey……… They were more run stoppers than pass rushers. We had 1 sack against KSU last year, forced no turnovers, and Freeman hit us for near 60% passing. It seemed like Freeman had all day to pick us apart last year.
This year coming in has been different. In our big12 opener we forced 2 turnovers, got 3 sacks, and seemed to be in the backfield all game. We also held Hawkins to 39% passing, their worst by far all season.
Last year our front 7 played horribly, especially the linebacking corps. Our secondary was leading the team in tackles. Going into the RRS it looked like this………..
2007
Marcus Griffin……38
Ryan Palmer………32
Erick Jackson…….31
Brandon Foster……28
Robert Killebrew….26
Rashad Bobino…….25
2008
Roderick Muckelroy..41
Sergio Kindle…….21
Earl Thomas………20
Roy Miller……….20
Brian Orakpo……..19
Jared Norton……..19
The fact is Muschamp has the front 7 playing a lot better, which means our secondary won’t get beat as much in play action from flying up to make tackles. We actually will be in the area to contest passes instead of wondering where anyone under 200lbs is, while Malcolm Kelly is running free in our secondary. All the blown assignments, lack of turnovers, and midgets/walk-ons in the secondary, yet we only lost by a score. I like our chances!!
Show Horn said:
October 7th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
I think this is a defensive battle with a 24-21 win for either team.
I think a dominant Texas D holds down a highly potent OU offense, and I just don’t see enough offensive weapons for UT to put too many points on the board.
This game is going to be fun, but something tells me special teams is going to win this game and Texas is better there.
So, Horns by a field goal.
NateHeupel said:
October 7th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
BartonCreek, you’re a sandbagging son of a bitch. Well done. Give me a second while I go remove the hook from my cheek.
“I think a dominant Texas D holds down a highly potent OU offense”
You are mistaken, sir. The UT run defense is dominant. The UT pass defense is fair, but not great and nowhere near dominant.
I don’t seem to see any mention of OU’s no-huddle offense that has been killing every defense it’s faced. The tempo is impressive, but UT has the athletes to handle that.
The problem is that OU is shifting from a one-back, double TE set with two wide to an empty back, 4 wide set with a TE in for blocking without changing personnel or even stopping to huddle. That’s how OU gets Gresham matched up on Blake Gideon or Earl Thomas instead of Sergio Kindle.
Sooner Jake said:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:06 pm
So why does Stoops do a better job at the RRS than a BCS bowl game?
Or Is it just Greg Davis?
p said:
October 7th, 2008 at 6:59 pm
“You are mistaken, sir. The UT run defense is dominant. The UT pass defense is fair, but not great and nowhere near dominant.”
A pass defense is only as good as it’s pass rush. Translation……. I guess we have to find out!
“I don’t seem to see any mention of OU’s no-huddle offense that has been killing every defense it’s faced. The tempo is impressive, but UT has the athletes to handle that.”
OU scored more points last year with the old style. I think it works when it’s unexpected, but once you have studied it you can prepare for it the same way you would with any other team.
west_coast said:
October 7th, 2008 at 7:04 pm
Great read Scipio.
Kafka said:
October 7th, 2008 at 9:32 pm
UT has been playing no huddle offense for years which means the UT D has faced it in practise for years. It is kind of joke that OU is making such a big deal out of the no huddle. BTW, when a team plays no huddle, the first guys to get tired are the OL guys.
Gresham is listed in rivals as running a 4.6 40 (when he was about 40 pounds lighter than now). The guy is enormous (6′7″, 260+) but is there any reason to expect that he is going to outrun Muck or Sergio? If they pass cover Gresham when he starts from the normal TE position (and UT is in a 4-3), they will also cover Gresham when he is split out.
It may not be that important. It remains to be seen how well OU pass protects Bradford from the UT D line speed and Muschamp’s blitzes. Stoops may decide that it is a long season and make double sure that Bradford takes no avoidable big hits. Stoops might decide that keeping the OU TEs in (at least long enough to chip block the UT DEs) is a good idea.
The only benefit (from a pass receiving perspective) that I see from splitting out Gresham is that it is easier for him to get off the LOS. It does not magically make Gresham faster or improve to run patterns.
If Kindle or Muck can cover him when the sooners have Gresham tight to the OT, Kindle or Muck can cover him when he is split out.
The disadvantage of splitting out Gresham is that he is no longer available for either pass blocking or run blocking. UT would much prefer that Gresham be split out.
Muschamp personally coaches the UT LBs and he is an outstanding coach of DB technique. The improvement on pass D by the UT LBs has amazed me.
Muschamp will keep his safeties deep to prevent big plays. When they help out on receivers, I am sure they are being coached to deliver the big hit (i.e. make the tackle and jar the ball loose) rather than focus on intercepting the ball. It is the same idea as in police pistol training where you are taught to shoot for the body rather than the head because the body is a bigger target.
As an ex TE (not that much smaller than Gresham), I can tell you that a little guy can hurt a big guy when the little guy has the angle and the big guy is focusing on the ball.
ponderos said:
October 8th, 2008 at 4:48 am
I beg of you, please put any linebacker you wish 1-on-1 with Gresham.
Please do it.
Robert Killebrew said:
October 8th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Ponderos, you rang?
BrickHorn said:
October 8th, 2008 at 7:31 am
I worked out a very simple model to predict this week’s score. Basically, what I did was calculate each of the two teams’ average points for and points allowed. Then I calculated how each team performed compared to the average points allowed and scored by its opponents (in games not against Texas and OU). From this, you can obtain a percentage differential over the mean points scored and points allowed attributable to Texas and OU. In other words, how much better did Texas and OU do against their competition than did their competition’s other opponents?
There are then two ways to predict the score of the game. In the following example, we wish to calculate Team A’s points scored:
Method 1: Assume Team A’s average points scored sets the scoring baseline, and Team B adds a differential to that baseline. To find out how many points Team A scores, just take its average points scored per game and add the Team B “points allowed” differential (which, in the case of these two teams, is always negative).
Method 2. Assume Team B’s average points allowed dictates the baseline. To find Team A’s score, take Team B’s avg. points allowed and add Team A’s percentage points scored differential to this baseline.
After you run these calculations (and their complement for Team B), you end up with four total numbers: two represent the predicted scoring by Team A and two represent the predicted scoring by Team B.
In order to get a prediction, you have basically match each score for Team A up against each score for Team B and determine each team’s record in a 4-game set.
In the case of Texas and Oklahoma, the numbers work out as follows:
Texas: (21.8, 21.5)
OU: (19.6, 24.1),
where the numbers in parentheses are the scores predicted by (method 1, method 2), as described above.
Play out a 4-game set, and it looks like this:
Game 1: Texas 21.8 – OU 19.6
Game 2: Texas 21.8 – OU 24.4
Game 3: Texas 21.5 – OU 19.6
Game 4: Texas 21.5 – OU 24.4
In other words, the model predicts Texas to win 50% of the time and OU to win 50% of the time. In no scenario does one team win by more than a field goal.
Since the two teams will only play once, this should be interpreted as a toss-up game.
Interestingly, while the model predicts basically the same Texas score irrespective of whether Texas’ offense or OU’s defense dictates the scoring, OU’s score is quite different between the two methods. If the defenses dictate the game, Texas should win. If the offenses dictate the game, OU should win.
At least, that’s what my shitty 10-minute computer modeling method says.
UTfan1 said:
October 8th, 2008 at 11:10 am
Not exactly a GD fan but the play calling has been spectacular at times this season. The Q package has been painful to watch however.
I’d say the skill players are fairly close to equal. Its going to come down to the line and coaching anticipation and adjustment. Mental attitude and preparation will play a great factor.
Any other key players we’re missing other than Irby?
Hook’Em
UTfan1 said:
October 8th, 2008 at 11:12 am
Just want to say great write up as usual Scip. Always a pleasure. Thank you.
Hook’Em
Scipio Tex said:
October 8th, 2008 at 11:13 am
Utfan1:
Fozzy Whittaker.
Even if he can go, I don’t think Mack will play him after a 3 game layoff against Oklahoma.
NateHeupel said:
October 8th, 2008 at 11:31 am
“Ponderos, you rang?”
Hey, Killebrew, I don’t know if anyone told you, but you ran out of eligibility. Thanks for visiting, though.
That said, ponderos, clearly you forgot about Sergio Kindle. He’s got the speed and size to stay with Gresham on short and intermediate routes.
ponderos said:
October 8th, 2008 at 12:06 pm
Nate. Go play with your Mack bobblehead and your Chris Simms blowup doll, why don’t-cha.
Robert Killebrew said:
October 8th, 2008 at 12:09 pm
Did you know Brandon Foster is on an NFL roster? I’m at least three tablespoons and a salad mixer better than him.
Vasherized said:
October 8th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Just like Jeremy Beal has the size and speed to hang with Peter Ullman.
Robert Killebrew said:
October 8th, 2008 at 12:11 pm
Plus, I would face rape Gresham after he put up 7/100. Can’t beat a good old fashioned face rape.
BrickHorn said:
October 8th, 2008 at 1:09 pm
By the way, I applied my model retroactively to the Colorado game and it predicted a 36 – 10 Texas win. Texas won 38-14.
Collin Gallegas said:
January 15th, 2010 at 12:20 am
Hey love the blog must have taken a fair amount of work.