Football Articles
Texas/Colorado Football Analysis
Posted by Scipio Tex on September 29th, 2008 under Football
I’ve decided to distract myself from gawking at the smoldering ruin that was my 401K by researching a bit about the Buffaloes. Before the year, I would have been pleased to leave Boulder with a last second field goal for the win. The game set up well for them for a host of reasons. Right now I can’t say I’m overly concerned about the Buffs. Partly that’s us, a lot of that is them. Still, this is the team last year that beat OU…and lost to Iowa State. That’s a high beta. I respect that sort of willful inconsistency.
They’re 3-1 right now, but that W/L ratio won’t hold. Their OL will though. All three of them.
Season to Date:
Colorado St 38-17 W
Eastern Washington 31-24 W
West Virginia 17-14 W
Florida State 21-39 L
West Virginia and Florida State are obviously not what their name brand suggests. Their struggle with Eastern Washington is puzzling – Colorado trailed 21-7 at halftime and needed 14 points and a last second interception return for a touchdown to win. They defecated their pants in Florida and allowed a Florida State team QBed by a finite number of monkeys to dominate them with defense, a running game, and special teams. The same FSU team Wake held to a field goal. Colorado fans blame their sluggish play on flatlands humidity and their inability to rally after the devastating news about Lehman Brothers.
Here are their stats and rankings.
This is a very mediocre Buffalo team that will be fortunate to go 4-4 in the Big 12 Norte.
Offense:
Starting OT Ryan Miller – arguably their most dynamic OL – is the latest loss. He fractured his fibula against FSU. His replacement is a RS Frosh named Matt Bahr and he’ll line up next to another RS Frosh at OG. LT Nate Solder is 6′9″ 300. So basically, Dexter Pittman plays LT for Colorado. C Daniel Sanders is a post-season awards candidate and their only senior. They’ve run blocked well this year, but pass protection has been very suspect.
At WR, Colorado has Darrell Scott’s uncle WR Josh Smith. He is his own grandpa. That’s their receiving corps. He’s a speedy guy and a major threat on special teams when he’s not fumbling like a buffoon. TE Riar Greer will factor into their gameplan for reasons I’ll get into later.
Dan Hawkins gave the keys of his offense to son Cody and like any good college kid, Cody has wrapped that motherfucker around a lamp post. Cody is 5-11 190 with a weakish arm. He makes up for it by not being a running threat. Every now and then you seem him throw an amazing ball, but before you’ve finished rubbing your eyes to see if it really happened, he hits a line judge in the buttock with an errant throw and calls out, “Sorrrrrrrrrrryyyyy, Daaaaad!”
The RB grouping has good talent: Rodney Stewart, Darrell Scott, Demetrius Sumler. Little Rodney Stewart is the surprise starter and he’s been extemely productive. He’s small and squirty. Like Cytherea. Don’t Google that on your work computer. He had 273 yards combined against WVU and FSU. Darrell Scott is immensely talented but just can’t get it together — he’s dinged and running without much patience. Sumler is a good power option. Many Longhorns want Darrell Scott in the game so Brian Orakpo can bury his helmet in his throat, but I’m pretty sanguine about it all. The Mack Brown Recruiting Curse will work in time.
Philosophically, Colorado has no real offensive philosophy. Hawkins coaches like water – he fills whatever vessel the defense presents. Unfortunately, their output has been a trickle.
Analysis: They are compromised on the OL, have one receiver, a questionable QB, and fine RBs. Colorado is going to pound the ball between the tackles, half-roll Hawkins for quick throws to TE Riar Greer, screen with their backs, and max protect to take shots down the field with Josh Smith. That’s it. If they have some success pounding the ball, they could prove pesky to our defense as it will force us to commit to stopping the run and leave our youngsters exposed to play action. We’ll see some trick plays because it’s The Hawk and he needs something to get the juices going. If we can inflict any negative plays, it’s over. They might as well punt on 2nd and 14. The name of their game needs to be ball control. Our offense will play such a key role in this. If they fall behind early and have to throw on every down, it should get ugly.
Defense:
The Colorado defense isn’t bad, but they’re not a pressure group. The DL is very solid against the run and George Hypolite is a legit All-Big 12 guy. None of their front four pass rushes particularly well. West Virgina was able to run on them a bit, but they’re West Virginia. What’s disconcerting for CU is that FSU ran on them.
LB is OK and not up to CU standards. They miss Jordan Dizon. Their guys are well coached and very active, but none of them are going to manhandle anyone.
The secondary is very competent. Both CBs can run but they’re smallish: they go 5′7 180 and 5′11 165. We’ll present some problems for them after the catch.
Analysis: They don’t pressure the passer well. We’re a precision passing team. If they blitz extra men, I like Colt’s chances on the run. They should handle our running game and their secondary is competent enough to challenge the Shipley/Cosby/McCoy mind meld. We’re not going to score 52 points, but it would take poor execution for them to keep us below 27.
Special Teams:
Josh Smith will probably run back a kick for a TD and drop a ball on their 5 yard line. So the net/net exchange is zero.
X-Factors
Colorado will be at home in a night game. The fans will be raucous early, but if Colorado starts to lose they’ll start playing hackeysack and listen to Phish on their Ipods.
Altitude. Well, apparently it is determined by your attitude. I learned that in a team-building exercise. So if you arrive in Boulder with an attitude of oxygenation, you won’t be impacted. This is how Tenzing Norgay conquered Everest: with an attitude of oxygenated thoughts.
Colorado OL. This is a problem for them. If Colorado tries to throw the ball on too many obvious passing downs, The Hawk will Mike Martz his own son.
Hawk Kwan Do. Not a problem. Sergio Kindle knows The FootFist Way.
I feel good about the game. It should be fun and we’ll learn some more stuff about the team. What are your thoughts?
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Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Oklahoma Sooners – Recruiting So Far 24 minutes ago
BOC: Neither has visited, yet we hold ’ships open for both.
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TMZ reports that Tiny Gallon took a $3000 payout from an agent. My God, Capel has no control over this team whatsoever. This is 2007 offseason Texas football levels of embarrassing. You can’t let a half dozen bad apples spoil a bushel of 10 apples…that analogy sucked balls, but you get my
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Previewing Jimmer and the Cougars 1 hour, 43 minutes ago
Great stuff, bear. really looking forward to this game.
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Nickel Rover commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 1 hour, 44 minutes ago
06_UT: you are probably right. I thought about changing the post description to “least favorite Barnes team” because that’s more accurate but I didn’t feel like it.
That said, I’m not sure this team would beat those other two. They would lose Abrams and let him go 7-15 on 3s and the Abrams team played better -
admin commented on the blog post Nike U in Turmoil 1 hour, 48 minutes ago
Aren’t they building some sort of super duper hoops arena? Most expensive ever bilt or something?
Who will the get? Mark Few?
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Nike U in Turmoil 1 hour, 48 minutes ago
Aren’t the building some sort of super duper hoops arena? Most expensive ever bilt or something?
Who will the get? Mark Few?
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srr50 wrote a new blog post: Nike U in Turmoil 2 hours, 5 minutes ago
10 weeks ago, Oregon played in the Rose Bowl as Pac 10 champions. Since their loss to Ohio State, the program has been in some kind of bizzaro parallel universe where every headline concerns a player arrest, a firing, or now a resignation.
Mike Bellotti, the Duck AD and former head coach earlier this week
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Luke commented on the blog post First Round: Clemson Tigers 4 hours, 17 minutes ago
Prescient comment, Doc.
I think we learned today that no team is really a mirror image of Missouri, even if Clemson is about as close as it gets. Unless you have significantly better/more talented athletes, if you try to run with the Tigers, you will lose. This team is so much fun to watch in games
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srr50 commented on the blog post March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 4 hours, 31 minutes ago
Good to see that Tom Penders still believes in the weave offense. Maryland finally figured out that if you pass quickly, the middle is always open.
37-29 Maryland late in the first half.
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Luke wrote a new blog post: Previewing Jimmer and the Cougars 4 hours, 32 minutes ago
Kansas State is going to be under a lot of pressure tomorrow night in primetime at the Ford Center.
Not only are the Wildcats the favored #2 seed going against #7 seed BYU, but if the Wildcats lose, they may sentence hundreds of boys to nonstop harassment from all the kids who think that “Jimmer” was
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Ibas water bottle wrote a new blog post: Georgia Tech post mortem 4 hours, 44 minutes ago
We came up short.
Credit to Georgia Tech they worked the ball inside where they had the advantage and played great D on the perimeter. Matt Pilgrim is the most athletic big man we’ve had in years around here and he was irrelevant. When we tried to drive they collapsed like Chris Farley on a
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Phenomenal Smith commented on the blog post First Round: Clemson Tigers 5 hours, 19 minutes ago
Doc, the turnovers seemed to do the trick – there were great big chunks of time when Mizzou didn’t even have to get into a half court offense.
Great to see Ramsey have such a good game and pretty stifle Booker. As Euclid said during the game, even when Mizzou doesn’t play well
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dick commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 5 hours, 59 minutes ago
“Also because those other teams gave great effort almost every game. This team’s effort was questionable. Dumb and lazy, not a good combo…..”
This is what made this season so bizarre for me. This has never been a problem for Barnes’ teams. But I actually questioned this team’s heart and desire to play together
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srr50 commented on the blog post March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 6 hours, 12 minutes ago
Travis Ford spent the 2nd half channeling his inner Rick Barnes — lot’s of standing around on offense while one player tries to generate something off a ball screen — then taking a forced shot.
So the Big 12 goes 5-2 in Round One.
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skymonkeyhorn commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 6 hours, 17 minutes ago
This is the worst coached team ever in Barnes era. Period.
Worst defense over the whole season,
Offense sucked big time and the bench coaching was horrible, ransom’s attitude was better then the coach’s overall this season.
Trips write up pre and post better then the game plan and O schemes.
Hell we could have -
srr50 commented on the blog post March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 6 hours, 21 minutes ago
advertisers think they will probably get some deals for the additional 32 games that would be added. The feeling is that an ESPN would disount rates somewhat, since they already have a dual revenue stream — advertising dollars and subscription fees.
It’s all about content for ESPN — even mediocre content.
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dick commented on the blog post FLV March Madness First Round Bets 6 hours, 22 minutes ago
a great first round of the tournament from an excitement standpoint, very mediocre from a gambling standpoint.
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srr50 commented on the blog post March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 6 hours, 38 minutes ago
Ga. Tech — last in the ACC in free throw shooting at 64% — 13 for 13 tonight.
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srr50 commented on the blog post March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 6 hours, 48 minutes ago
A poll of media buyers from the major agencies overhwhelmingly showed that advertisers believe that the NCAA will expand, and the tournament will join the BCS on ESPN.
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whiskey wrote a new blog post: The week in news- Pariahs, Malcontents and Power Hour 6 hours, 50 minutes ago
In the midst of March Madness, St. Patrick’s Day, house guests, nice weather outside and a host of other distractions I still managed to come across quite a few interesting college football stories this week. Here we go.
Mike Leach and Craig James were apparently in the same room this week and nobody wrestled. Bummer. Leach
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srr50 commented on the blog post March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 7 hours, 2 minutes ago
Anderson finds out what going to the paint is like when there is a big who knows how to defend the low block.
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srr50 wrote a new blog post: March Madness Open Thread Part Deaux 7 hours, 12 minutes ago
So far on Day Two, no buzzer beaters, but there was the obligatory #12 over #5 with Cornell thumping Temple 78-65, but the Ivy League school was everyone’s “inside” pick for an upset. Still the day hasn’t come close to generating the action that Thursday had.
Today
#5 Texas A&M 69 #12 -
Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 7 hours, 37 minutes ago
I wasn’t trying to say they quit. They just didn’t play hard a lot of the time. Lazy = lack of effort. Example, our transition defense was about 75% effort and 25% stupidity. We loafed down court a lot. The kids didn’t like to lose so they would fight back,
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Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 9 hours, 10 minutes ago
This the most disappointing team because our talent level is higher than those others.
The DGib/Buckman team was the least talented, barely, after the injury to LaMarcus and Tucker’s suspension.
Last year’s team was the hardest to watch. Just watching AJ Abrams, who I don’t hate as much as most, run around like a
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uthookem commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 9 hours, 16 minutes ago
Agreed on Damo being my favorite Longhorn basketball player, I wish him all the best.
This was definitely the worst, by far.
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest: Post Mortem 10 hours, 29 minutes ago
Don’t have time to address each and every comment now, but I wanted to say thanks to everyone for contributing to the site this season. It’s made it a lot of fun to follow a team that’s tough to watch at times.
Also, I wanted to thank you for the kind words as
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post Big Dance: Day Two 10 hours, 30 minutes ago
And that’s all she wrote…relatively boring day so far. A&M out to a nice early lead.
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Art Vandelay commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest: Post Mortem 10 hours, 33 minutes ago
Trips,
Great work all year long. Love the passion. The fact that you kept writing these (even around the birth of a child), is fantastic, shows your commitment, and is a little freaky. :-)
I think you showed great restraint in this post. It would have been easier to “go off” on Barnes.
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ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Barnes worst team 10 hours, 34 minutes ago
Second awesomest thing — Magnus gets his woman to go to Hooters with him.
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post Big Dance: Day Two 10 hours, 40 minutes ago
Missouri going to hang on…
Sconsin clinging to a 2 point cushion
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svrep said:
September 30th, 2008 at 12:55 am
“they’ll start playing hackeysack and listen to Phish on their Ipods”
I just woke up my roommate with my laughter.
Parlin Hall said:
September 30th, 2008 at 2:14 am
The equalizer for the Buffs has to be the psychedelic properties of their stadium.
Imagine Johnny Cash’s ‘68 prison concert as performed by Duran Duran to a crowd really twisted about the fascist return policy at William Sonoma, and you’ve got some idea of the disorienting atmosphere that challenges visiting teams.
EyesOfTX said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:02 am
You are the only person living or dead who could work Cytherea into a post about football. I stand in awe.
soliver465 said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:02 am
Excellent analysis, you are clearly Scipio Tex the Elder.
Ransom Stoddard said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:03 am
I play golf in Breckenridge on Friday, again in Denver on Saturday morning, then off to Boulder for some microbrewery, then to the game to see us win about 24-10.
EyesOfTX said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:06 am
As for the game, is it really possible we will win 4 of our first 5 games by identical 52-10 scores? I’m thinking it’ll be close to that.
If CU’s OL were healthy, this might be more of a contest, but with 3 starters out, our DL is just going to rip poor Cody H. to shreds. I hope his mother doesn’t come to the game.
CU does nothing on defense that will slow our offense down. Of course, we’ll slow ourselves down with our own rushing scheme, but Colt to Quan and Shipley will more than make up for that.
Like you, I came into this season very concerned about the CU game. Of course, before the season began, I was also concerned about Arkansas.
So I got 52-10 in this one. It seems to be a recurring theme.
Nordberg said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:46 am
I’ll take the UTEP score. This game will look similar to that one.
hiphopopotamus said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:51 am
@ Eyes – I’ve been higher on Texas and lower on Colorado than most this season, but do you really think this will be 52-10?
EyesOfTX said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:56 am
hipho – I think it’s going to be a very, very one-sided game. The 52-10 thing was kind of tongue in cheek, but not entirely out of the question, either.
Huckleberry said:
September 30th, 2008 at 5:09 am
I’ve got 45-13. Have to preserve the +28-point victory streak as well as the <14 points allowed streak.
Art Vandelay said:
September 30th, 2008 at 5:33 am
Close for 1.5 quarters. Horns put it away in 2nd half with two defensive TD’s. 45-17.
Is Fozzy going to play?
BoomerFreakin' Sooner said:
September 30th, 2008 at 5:46 am
Ransom Stoddard
September 30, 2008 at 4:03 am I play golf in Breckenridge on Friday, again in Denver on Saturday morning, then off to Boulder for some microbrewery, then to the game to see us win about 24-10.
Is there really any difference playing out of a Longhorm patty lie or a Buffalo patty lie? If not, why go…
hphorn said:
September 30th, 2008 at 5:47 am
“QB Dan Hawkins gave the keys of his offense to son Cody and like any good college kid, Cody has wrapped that motherfucker around a lamp post.” Tremendous read with great insight and laughter as always. Thanks Scip.
Uncle Rico said:
September 30th, 2008 at 5:57 am
great ness
texas 38
muffalo 20
MWS said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:04 am
Coach McCartney to Dan Hawkins : Meditation is great and all, but I’ve never heard it save anybody from a gang rape type situation.
jc25 said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:09 am
Damn you Scip, I just Googled Cytherea in my mind. Now my brain is on screen saver.
Bellmont's Meaningless Streak-Calculating Computer said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:29 am
“I’ve got 45-13. Have to preserve the +28-point victory streak as well as the
Vasherized said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:35 am
The defense continues its progression with some kind sacks and epic turnovers, setting up a short field for Colt McCoy to do some early damage to Captain Kirkendoll with the DEEP BALL.
We have to use that play before OU so that have some film of dangerous formations that they won’t actually see in Dallas.
Darrell Scott switches to a UT jersey at halftime.
Mockingbird said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:40 am
I’m less concerned with the score than I am Texas getting some time for Fozzy and the young receivers. GD and Mack can’t take those kids in to the RRS without building some confidence in those guys.
The Sooner pass defense is a major chink in their armor. Shipley & Quan as the only options hamstrings Colt to force plays.
If Fozzy & Mal &/or Collins – Kirk – Buckner all have a good game than I’ll feel much better about the RRS.
For the Arkansas game I grilled some pork ribs and chops. This week I’ll stop washing my hair, make my commute to work on a longboard and use hemp toilet paper.
Huckleberry said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:50 am
So I analyzed the points per possession statistics for both teams. As always, drives that ended due to the end of a half are not included. Also, negative points were awarded to offenses for defensive touchdowns and safeties.
After analyzing the teams’ numbers, I plugged in a “nationwide average” points per possession based on different starting positions. This is really only based on the Texas and Colorado averages, so this is by far the weakest part of the analysis. Using all of these numbers I then utilized the Log5 method of calculating the expected points per possession based on different starting positions in this weekend’s game. Only three starting ranges had what could possibly be considered a statistically useful amount of data.
Here is the chart:
As you can see, no matter how you look at it, this game should be a comfortable win. We can expect to outscore Colorado by about 2.5 points for every possession that starts between the 20 and midfield. Based on the number of such possessions so far that’s a starting advantage of 20 points. And that’s before you get into turnovers and field position, areas that we should win based on our overall better team and which will account for the remaining possessions.
Basically, Colorado is going to need a lot of big breaks to win this game. If we don’t do anything stupid, we walk.
J.R.69 said:
September 30th, 2008 at 7:08 am
I’m just worried that, when Colt/Quan/Shipley explode on them, CU may bring in Cytherea to put out the fire.
BrickHorn said:
September 30th, 2008 at 7:31 am
Interesting work, Huck.
Jamdog said:
September 30th, 2008 at 7:38 am
Squirty like Cytherea, really. You my friend are an outstanding wordsmith.
TWC said:
September 30th, 2008 at 7:39 am
And if we fall behind we can always put in the Major.
MWS said:
September 30th, 2008 at 7:42 am
Dan Hawkins : I’M IN FULL GODDAMN CONTROL AND THIS SHIT CAN HAPPEN TO ME.
Mysterious Package said:
September 30th, 2008 at 7:44 am
‘Q package’ may be fading
By Alan Trubow, John Bridges
AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
‘Q package’ falls out of favor
Fans aren’t the only ones who are questioning the purpose of the “Q package,” Texas’ two-quarterback formation in which John Chiles joins Colt McCoy in the game.
Texas coach Mack Brown and offensive coordinator Greg Davis indicated Monday that the formation might have a brief future.
“The Q package right now hasn’t brought us anything much,” Brown said. “We’ll continue to look at it. … It doesn’t look like it’s going to be as involved as we thought at the beginning of the year.”
Brown and Davis cited the development of Texas’ young receivers as a reason the “Q” has seen only limited use. Davis said James Kirkendoll, Malcolm Williams and Brandon Collins have stepped up at receiver, making it less critical that Chiles line up there.
Davis said Chiles continues to need as many snaps as he can get in practice at quarterback, perhaps stunting his development as a receiver.
“John isn’t far enough along as a quarterback to spend all his time at receiver, learning the nuances of that position,” Davis said.
Texbot5463 said:
September 30th, 2008 at 8:06 am
Outstanding reference to Beta.
8straight said:
September 30th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Malcolm, Malcolm.
steven said:
September 30th, 2008 at 9:16 am
The only analysis I need to know is that we are better and they are worse and we are going to ass stomp the Buffs in their own house. That’s the only analysis I care to know and it be good enough for me.
colobuff said:
September 30th, 2008 at 9:30 am
Buff fan here. First off, your blog is awesome. Best football writing on the web. You’re dead on about our O-line. It was young and inexperienced before all the injuries. Now, well, I’m afraid Cody’s going to get seriously hurt – a la Joel Klatt. UT’s got a lot of beef up front. We’ve got some great young speed, but we’re still a year or two away from being a great team. For now, though, it’s gonna be a beautiful day for football in Boulder on Saturday. Hope that those of you attending have a great time in Boulder (if you don’t, something’s seriously wrong with you). Many of us are still licking our wounds from 70-3, which put the nail in Gary Barnett’s coffin (thank you for that part, at least). Unlike a Gary Barnett team, Hawk’s teams have some guts and a lot of pride. I expect a sound UT win, but stranger things have happened at Folsom – just ask Oklahoma.
Amos Moses said:
September 30th, 2008 at 10:37 am
“Cody is 5-11 190 with a weakish arm. He makes up for it by not being a running threat.”
Thanks, this made my day. Excellent analysis. I expect a relatively slow start that morphs into a thorough thumping and Texas victory.
A Einstein said:
September 30th, 2008 at 10:55 am
“The only analysis I need to know is that we are better and they are worse and we are going to ass stomp the Buffs in their own house. That’s the only analysis I care to know and it be good enough for me.”
Yes but I hear their women are especially slutty with the football players. Stay away young steven!
embolism said:
September 30th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Lotta big spreads forecasted above. Of course there is no money behind them. If there was Vegas might open it enough for me to bet.
Dont look at the FSU game too hard. Their strengths matched up perfectly with our weaknesses. Now I want to hear a barrage of overconfident smack about the Buffs having any strengths.
Do Texas fans know what an Ipod is? Sumpin tells me there are a few Phish phans in Austin.
And where is Coach Callahan? He usually doesnt miss a chance to smugly diss CU (even though there aint no rivalry). Maybe he realizes his team aint any better…..NAH!
Greg Davis Rides the Short(pass) Bus said:
September 30th, 2008 at 11:07 am
“He is his own grandpa”
Josh Smith did “The nasty in the pasty”.
Excellent.
Huckleberry said:
September 30th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Well, you’re right that there’s no money behind my specific prediction of 45-13.
But money behind Texas -13.5? Certainly.
coach Callahan said:
September 30th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
What could I add that the FSU game didn’t say? I will say this though. It sucks that Miller got hurt and I hope the kid heals quickly and completely he’s a good football player.
huge said:
September 30th, 2008 at 2:46 pm
Cytherea reference? i’m impressed.
dedfischer said:
September 30th, 2008 at 2:54 pm
I just feel more comfortable about myself knowing someone else other than me has watched the entirety of one of her videos.
Flower Tucci said:
September 30th, 2008 at 4:19 pm
Cytherea reference? i’m impressed.
Whatever.
Sasha Grey said:
September 30th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Are you people kidding me?
Sasha_Is_A_Longhorn_Dog said:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:01 pm
I think you picked an unfortunate screen name.
bevoshapedwaffles said:
September 30th, 2008 at 9:12 pm
45-3 They won’t do shit.
Oh freeones.com, how I love thee….
Hook ‘em
ponderos said:
October 1st, 2008 at 4:17 am
Mockingbird
September 30, 2008 at 6:40 am
The Sooner pass defense is a major chink in their armor.
Not if you can’t run the ball.
Kafka said:
October 1st, 2008 at 6:24 am
Playing in Boulder is worth about 7 points to the buffs (in spite of the horns’ altitude attitude).
It is possible for the buffs to construct an O that can grind clock with half an O line that can run block well at the point of attack, good backs, a QB who can throw short accurately, a good TE, and a good WR.
Because of the buffs’ running attack, the horns will probably stay in a 4-3, instead of a nickel.
Given that the buffs only have 1 good WR and a bunch of good RBs, they might as well replace a WR with an RB. This will make it much easier to force the horns to pass cover a back with an LB (never a good thing).
Presumably Scott will draw a double team so he can be used to clear out an area before the buffs throw short to the back into the vacated area. This might facilitate YAC.
I doubt the horns get that many sacks this weekend because coach Hawkins will attempt to minimize the sacks by mostly running and throwing short passes (he does not want the QB (his boy) getting slaughtered).
The buffs probably don’t throw long much until after the horns’ safeties over commit to stopping the run game (if that ever happens).
The buffs having two good DBs means that possibly they can defend Quan and Ship decently and force Colt to throw elsewhere more than usual. If so, it will be interesting to see who Colt throws to and how successful that is.
Maybe this is the weekend that we see Ogbonnaya at H back. If Collins and Kirkendoll get more snaps at WR, how is Malcolm going to be used? He is a big strong receiver on a team that desperately needs big, strong receivers (i.e. with the loss of Irby and the small stature of Quan, Ship, Kirkendoll, and Collins).
Kafka said:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:07 am
I meant Josh Smith (Scott’s uncle) will draw a double team, not Scott.
HenryJames said:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:10 am
Is he worth doubling?
Scipio Tex said:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:21 am
I just don’t see a good scenario for their offense unless our secondary completely loses their mind in play action.
dedfischer said:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:48 am
I caught a replay of the OU/CO game from last year and watched the last quarter and a half. It refreshed my memory a little and reminded me of some things they like to do. Most of their offense is generated out of playaction and Hawkins is most effective on rollouts out of playaction and short passes to the TE, or the deeper option of WR on the backside. He really likes to go to the TE. They’ll run a lot of out routes with the WR and corner routes with the TE. What Dan Hawkins really likes to do is test your LBs. After re-watching that game it reminded me of how bad Ryan Reynolds sucks, and how grossly overrated Curtis Lofton was, although he was playing pretty damn salty towards the end of the year. Hawkins had the OU LBs guessing the whole second half, and he’ll do some subtle things formationally to give his OL great blocking angles. He’ll also you the FB lead a lot. Muckelroy should be okay, but I would be a little concerned about Norton. He’ll be running in circles for most of the game. That being said, they don’t really have anything for longer down and distances. Their offense must stay on track on 1st and 2nd down, or the playbook gets pretty limited. 90% of their passing game is generated through playaction.
dedfischer said:
October 1st, 2008 at 9:54 am
Well shit, you covered it all in your write-up. Should have known better.
ChrisApplewhite said:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:42 am
Their defense is sloooooowwwwww. They miss Dizon. Now they are seeing what it’s like to go from DJ to Killebrew.
I bet we can outscore them fairly easily, unless we start fumbling or some shit.
Gene Claude said:
October 1st, 2008 at 11:54 am
The MU and UT lines are easy money this weekend…unless we start fumbling or some shit.
Kafka said:
October 1st, 2008 at 12:21 pm
HJ:
Scipio says that Josh Smith is their only good WR (so I assume Josh is good). If the horns are playing man coverage, then it makes sense that they will give safety help on the best WR that CU has (especially if he is the only good WR for CU).
Scipio:
CU may have a viable offense if they able to run OK against UT. CU ran for 4.7 yards per rush against West Virginia on 45 rushes and racked up 24 first downs. If CU can run close to that effectively against UT and throws short effectively to backs and TE, they could end up grinding a lot of clock.
Running effectively (as you mention) would also make play action more dangerous (especially when you are playing freshman safeties).
UT has also mostly played a nickel against the good passing teams that it has played this season. Against CU, UT will probably have to stay in a 4-3 to deal with CU’s running attack (if CU can run adequately).
CU will probably mostly stick to the short passing game when it passes. Attacking a 4-3 with a short passing game is easier than attacking a nickel because you can pick on an LB rather than a DB. It also presents the opportunity to use some of those running backs that CU has in such abundance (and get a mediocre CU WR off the field). Short passes are easier to catch than long passes and don’t require much pattern running memory/ability (i.e. it is easier for an RB to participate in the short passing game than for longer passes).
Defending short passing is distracting to the LBs, thus has a synergistic effect on the run game.
Lastly, it is nearly impossible to sack the QB on a short pass.
UT has wonderful run D stats this season but has not really been tested by a good running team thus far so we don’t know for sure how good UT is against the run. I am guessing pretty good but you never know until they play the game.
Finally, I found it non trivial to respond to your post because it was so complete. Being a devil’s advocate for the buffs is more interesting than simply saying “Another great post, Scipio”.
sooner tim said:
October 2nd, 2008 at 7:27 am
Everybody thinks they’ll go into Boulder and roll….until they don’t. It’s a funky place. You’ll win but I be surprised if by more than two TDs.
all hat said:
October 2nd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
sheee – yut!
what in the hay -all are you talking about?
pass me another one of them Pearls there son.
aint nuttin but and never been nuttin but ladies on that coloradie football team.
Iffin we dont win by at least 2 dozen touchdowns and I wont renew my season pass to Wolfcreek
All Day Long said:
October 3rd, 2008 at 12:39 pm
Good Analysis, except I think the Colorado corners are a little worse than what was said. However playing in Boulder has proven tougher for teams than expected and with the crowd sold out and being a night game Colorado should come out with some good energy. Second half I see the longhorns pulling away but closer than a lot of posters have it. I’d say 35-24.
Longhorns4life said:
October 3rd, 2008 at 4:42 pm
This is the type of game the buffs want. you guys came off of a 4 cupcake schedule with all the confidence in the world. you forgot to mention pat williams who hasnt done much due to double coverage. Colorado’s LB’s are top 3 in the conference in my opinion. The runningbacks have a lot of talent limited by a young OL. I think our LB’s will play well but this is our first test. Dont get too confident! I dont want to be another Oklahoma, especially before the RRS!