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Fantasy Football WRs: The Final Big Board

Posted by dedfischer on August 28th, 2008 under Football

I used a similar format for ranking the WRs, but simply tweaked the criteria a little.  I’m not going to do the QBs, TEs, Def or Kickers.  There seems to be a level of consistency with regards to consistently good or consistently shitty and most of you know what you’re getting.  You’re guess is as good as mine.  Here’s the WR criteria:

Over 10 Points - consistency was again the most heavily weighted factor; this number was derived by dividing the number of games over 10 fps in 2007 by the number of games played;  I’ll post the consistency percentage as well

Health - same as RBs

Targets – plus 1 for over 130 targets; 0 pts for 100-129 targets; -1 for 80-99 targets; -2 for less than 80 targets; you have to get the ball thrown to you first

Catches – plus 3 for over 95; plus 2 for over 80; plus 1 for over 70; 0 for less than 70 (this might help guys in Gay Leagues)

#1 WR on Team – plus 2 for being option #1, plus 1 for being option #2, and 0 for #3s or higher

Breakout Bonus – 1 pt bonus for guys who could blow up after a very promising year; they include Brandon Marshall, Roddy White; Calvin Johnson; Patrick Crayton; and Dwayne Bowe

QB – plus 2 for having a stud throwing to you; plus 1 for a good QB; 0 for an average QB; -1 for a below average QB; -2 for having Tavaris Jackson

Over 10 TDs - plus 1

Over 12 TDs – plus 1

Over 15 TDs – plus 1

There weren’t any real surprises at the top.  These are not fantasy point per game projections, but more of just a power rating number or grade.  Without further ado, here’s the best ranking to piss away $150:

1. Randy Moss – 25.0, 81.3% (multiply this number by 16 to determine the number of games player generated 10 or more fantasy points)

2. Terrell Owens – 22.7, 73.3%

3. Braylon Edwards – 20.0, 68.8%

4. Andre Johson – 19.4, 77.8%; received -2 for health

5. Reggie Wayne – 19.0, 56.3%

6. Larry Fitzgerald – 18.7, 66.7%

7. Marques Colston – 18.0, 56.3%

8. T.J. Houshmandzadeh – 16.0, 56.3%; -3 for health

9. Brandon Marshall – 15.0, 50.0%; -2 for suspension

10. Greg Jennings – 14.3, 76.9%; received a -2 for health, -1 deduction for targets, and -1 for new starter at QB; this guy might be a sleeper; 3rd highest consistency rating behind Moss and A. Johnson; TD maker

11. Plaxico Burress – 14.0, 56.3%; another dude who scores TDs before we get to our first white guy

12.  Wes Welker – 14.0, 43.8%

13. Anquan Boldin – 13.7, 41.7%

14. Santonio Holmes – 13.6, 53.8%

15. Jerricho Cotchery – 12.3, 33.3%

16. Torry Holt – 12.0, 43.8%; 2 pt health deduction or would crack the top 12

17. Roddy White – 12.0, 43.8%; this guy kicked ass with Chris Redman throwing him the ball; read that sentence again

18. Nate Burleson – 12.0, 43.8%; Hasselback has a way of making WRs better than they are; see Darrell Jackson

19. Steve Smith – 11.3, 33.3%; severely inconsistent for as high as everyone drafts him

20. Derrick Mason – 11.0, 37.5%; dude catches everything

21. Roy Williams – 10.3, 33.3%; big talent, but sometimes forgets he’s not playing Odessa High and they may need to call a pass play

22. Chad Johnson – 10.0, 37.5%; 3 pt health deduction; see Steve Smith; already has trouble beating press coverage, shoulder injury should help

23. Shaun McDonald – 10.0, 50.0%; I would take Calvin Johnson here before him, but this is where he landed; consistency rating was up there with some of the top guys

24. Calvin Johnson – 9.3, 33.3%; that’s a damn good consistency rate for a rookie; he might be the best Lion WR to take

25. Patrick Crayton – 9.2, 38.5%

26. Chris Chambers – 9.0, 37.5%

27. Laverneous Coles – 8.8, 30.0%

28. Dwayne Bowe – 8.0, 31.3%; another potential breakout guy

29. Bobby Engram – 7.0, 43.8%; was high on him before a 4 pt injury deduction; still, teammate Burleson graded out higher because of TDs

30. Hines Ward – 6.9, 30.8%; has career average of 6 catches for 31 yards per game; sometimes catches 2 yard TD passes

31. Donald Driver – 6.3, 26.7%

32. Kevin Curtis – 6.0, 25.0%; 4 pt health deduction and wildly inconsistent; good thing I drafted him

33. Reggie Williams – 5.5, 53.3%; 4 pt health deduction, 1 pt target deduction, and a bunch of fluke TDs

34. Lee Evans – 5.0, 31.3%; gets jammed by black men more frequently than Kim Kardashian

35. Joey Galloway – 4.4, 40.0%; Week 1 = 2 catches for 141 yards, 2 TDs; Weeks 2 thru 10 = 1 catch for 8 yards; serious lack of target issues

36. Santana Moss – 4.4, 21.4%; he rides the same breed of ponies as Lee Evans

37. Marvin Harrison – 3.2, 20.0%; a reminder to rest of the league that they’re a knee injury away from operating a ferris wheel

38. Donte Stallworth – 2.3, 33.3%; the next Joey Galloway; health concerns

39. Bernard Berrian – 2.0, 31.3%; hurt right now; Hasselback would make him a pro bowler

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15 Responses

  1. HenryJames said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 1:35 pm

    Any 49ers worth a shit? They got Mike Martz as their OC now.

  2. dedfischer said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 1:38 pm

    Just the facts here, Henry. No projections.

  3. dedfischer said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 1:41 pm

    Also, our deduction system didn’t go low enough for Alex Smith as your QB.

  4. HenryJames said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    The inimitable J.T. O’Sullivan from UC-Davis is going to start at QB for them.

  5. dedfischer said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 2:09 pm

    Hi, I’m J.T. O’Sullivan. Have you been injured in an accident lately?

  6. dedfischer said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

    I added another feature to my spreadsheet that shows average round and position drafted. Severely underrated players include:

    - Brandon Marshall (6th)
    - Greg Jennings (6th)
    - Roddy White (7th)
    - Nate Burleson (8th)
    - Derrick Mason (11th)
    - Shaun McDonald (UD)
    - Patrick Crayton (9th)

  7. Hookah said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 4:11 pm

    Calvin Johnson is way too low in my opinion. He will have a year like Edwards had last year, probably a little less productive as far as TDs. Shaun McDonald?

  8. Chicago Tribune said:

    August 28th, 2008 at 6:45 pm

    Yeah, I don’t think I would look too much into McDonald, that’s just based on where he ranked on his 2007 production.

  9. Mysterious Package said:

    August 29th, 2008 at 6:42 am

    Im somewhat new to Fantasy. When is a good time to start selecting recievers? Do you draft a couple of studs before getting a QB (assuming Romo, Brady, Manning, and Brees are already gone)? If the top 4 QB’s are taken in round 2 it would seem logical to draft the best recievers and RB’s available??? I know every draft is different but do I take a TJ and Larry Fitz over a pretty good QB and perhaps one of these or a RB?

  10. Vasherized said:

    August 29th, 2008 at 8:42 am

    Yes. Always load up on quality WRs and RBs early because there is a huge drop off from tier 1-2 when these players go to tier 3-4 that you can pick up much later in the draft.

    Most of the top tier WRs leave the board in rounds 2 and 3. It depends on your league’s format. If its 2 RB, 3 WR and TE make sure you grab some quality WRs early and draft a QB later in rounds 5-7.

    If its 2 RB, 2 WR, flex and TE then I usually go RB RB WR WR. Sometimes there’s a value pick available at a position you weren’t looking at that you have to take off the board.

    I don’t care of the kicker average 28 pts last year, don’t ever take one before the 14th round, preferably the last. Ever. With TE’s, unless you’re going early for Witten/Winslow/Gates I would wait til rounds 8-10 and grab an Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark, Heath Miller.

    I think Brandon Marshall and Calvin Johnson both have huge seasons.

    I like drafting the athletic freaks for sleepers (Sidney Rice, James Hardy, Chris Johnson).

  11. Steve Nebraska said:

    August 29th, 2008 at 10:00 am

    Nate Burleson might have a big year in Seattle, as well.

  12. dedfischer said:

    August 29th, 2008 at 11:45 am

    I’m not sure this system will work as it’s the first year I put it together. I’ve toying around with it for the last 2 seasons and trying to determine the criteria. I developed it based on the theory that instead of getting guys who score 24 points one week and 2 points the next week (Chad Johnson), you ended up with a guy who scores 12 points every week (Housh). I did some figuring and over the last 2 years, if you could average 93 points per game each week, it would guarantee you a top 4 seeding in every league I’ve played in. The idea is to end up with consistent guys by accounting for their past production, health status, QB, etc. I originally used it for WRs, but figured out it would be fine for RBs too. It sure helps me once I get past the top level guys in making decisions between a Hines Ward or Derrick Mason type player.

  13. dedfischer said:

    August 29th, 2008 at 11:49 am

    I’ve also used this website to see who I might be looking at depending on where I land in my live draft since we don’t draw for position until you show up:

  14. Mack Tripper said:

    August 31st, 2008 at 7:40 pm

    I agree with everything Vasherized said, and dedfischer too for that matter.

  15. Mack Tripper said:

    September 1st, 2008 at 8:21 am

    Some of you guys needing another WR may want to pick up Courtney Taylor of Seattle. He’s starting at flanker and went undrafted in my league.

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