Football Articles
College Football’s Biggest Upsets
Posted by Huckleberry on August 11th, 2008 under Football
I’m back with more riveting statistical analysis for the world. Try to stay calm and please, do not mob me when I go out in public. Just be patient as I have never refused a photo or autograph request from a fan.
This newest list will once again be based on my ratings, which of course will introduce a few constraints on the analysis. My historical ratings are obviously year-end results and not even I am interested in recalculating each season by taking out the upset in question and then assigning a value. So this analysis is based on each team’s final rating for the full season (including the upset). The z-table was limited to one-hundredths accuracy, meaning that rating differences were rounded. This results in some of the games having the same percentage, but they are sorted by actual difference.
My first step was to take the Top 1000 teams in the All-Time ratings set and look at any losses they suffered. I then took the difference in the final ratings between the two teams, applied a standard z-table, and determined the percentage likelihood that the better team would win a rematch according to the final ratings. The effect of the constraint listed above now becomes apparent. Because the computer used the actual upset in its calculations, it sees the upset as a “true” evaluation of the two teams’ abilities. Therefore the percentages that this technique produces are deflated relative to if I had recalculated the year’s ratings without the upset and then looked at the matchup. Each team’s worst loss was analyzed and if that loss had a percentage of 80% or greater – remember, this is the probability that the ratings say the loser would win a rematch – then their next worst loss was looked at. This ensured that all losses scoring greater than 80% among the All-Time Top 1000 teams were accounted for.
So here are the 25 Biggest Upsets in College Football History using only the top 1000 teams and losses (ties not included). Season ranks are based on D-1A teams only.
| Rank | Winner (Season Ranking) | Loser (Season Ranking) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1981 Georgia Tech (102) | 1981 Alabama (9) | 98.26% |
| 2 | 1978 Memphis (77) | 1978 Houston (11) | 95.73% |
| 3 | 1980 New Mexico (86) | 1980 BYU (14) | 95.64% |
| 4 | 1982 Washington St. (71) | 1982 Washington (8) | 95.35% |
| 5 | 1999 Cincinnati (72) | 1999 Wisconsin (6) | 95.25% |
| 6 | 2007 Stanford (68) | 2007 Southern Cal (6) | 95.05% |
| 7 | 1977 Mississippi (44) | 1977 Notre Dame (3) | 94.74% |
| 8 | 1989 Southern Miss (46) | 1989 Florida St. (4) | 94.06% |
| 9 | 2007 Pittsburgh (61) | 2007 West Virginia (5) | 93.45% |
| 10 | 2001 Oklahoma St. (62) | 2001 Oklahoma (6) | 92.79% |
| 11 | 1961 TCU (32) | 1961 Texas (2) | 92.51% |
| 12 | 1998 Michigan St. (33) | 1998 Ohio St. (2) | 92.22% |
| 13 | 2002 Texas A&M (47) | 2002 Oklahoma (4) | 91.77% |
| 14 | 1991 Southern Cal (39) | 1991 Penn St. (6) | 91.62% |
| 15 | 1996 Memphis (57) | 1996 Tennessee (8) | 91.62% |
| 16 | 1976 Purdue (40) | 1976 Michigan (3) | 91.47% |
| 17 | 1993 Minnesota (50) | 1993 Wisconsin (8) | 91.47% |
| 18 | 1998 North Carolina St. (34) | 1998 Florida St. (3) | 91.31% |
| 19 | 2003 California (34) | 2003 Southern Cal (2) | 91.15% |
| 20 | 1976 Mississippi (39) | 1976 Georgia (4) | 91.15% |
| 21 | 1957 Kentucky (48) | 1957 Tennessee (8) | 90.99% |
| 22 | 1970 Texas A&M (59) | 1970 LSU (9) | 90.32% |
| 23 | 1978 Oklahoma St. (62) | 1978 Missouri (15) | 89.62% |
| 24 | 2001 Auburn (28) | 2001 Florida (2) | 89.44% |
| 25 | 1980 San Jose St. (62) | 1980 Baylor (15) | 89.25% |
At this point I always like to clarify that this list is not intended to be the final say in this discussion, only a starting point. Obviously some of the games are so close in their ranking that even this system doesn’t really declare a clear winner. Also, as I’m sure many of you are wondering, Bob Stoops also appears on the list at #28 (2007 Colorado) and #30 (2002 Oklahoma St.); Mack Brown has never lost an 80% game. Hey, at least it’s something, right? Pete Carroll also appears at #33 (2006 UCLA) and #72 (2006 Oregon St.). I’m starting to think that the more great teams you have the more likely they are to be upset.
One of the things I noticed was the lack of old games. Part of it is certainly parity, but I think the biggest factor in this discrepancy is that more games are played, giving the system a better idea of teams’ true strength. Back in the old days when a team would only play one or two games against good teams, those games are all the system has to rate the teams. So what was probably a huge upset (like Centre over Harvard in 1921) is not considered as big in my ratings because the winner is inflated due to the lack of other information.
After this was complete I decided to throw in some other games. To do so I used the following links as a starting point:
Biggest Point Spread Reversals
A blogger’s list of big upsets
Ivan Maisel’s biggest upsets written in 2002
I also decided to throw in ties because of Maisel’s article and the only big one I could think of was Texas A&M and SMU back in the day. So here is a table that includes all games in the above links plus that A&M/SMU tie and Appalachian St./Michigan game, followed by a table showing the biggest upsets that Texas has been involved in. However, I did leave out the games in the above links that are not considered upsets under this system.
| Rank | Winner (Season Ranking) | Loser (Season Ranking) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1985 UTEP (108) | 1985 BYU (22) | 99.68% |
| 2 | 1994 SMU (85) (GAME TIED) | 1994 Texas A&M (10) | 98.54% |
| 3 | 1998 Temple (93) | 1998 Virginia Tech (21) | 98.12% |
| 4 | 1980 Georgia Tech (83) (GAME TIED) | 1980 Notre Dame (8) | 97.19% |
| 5 | 1992 Iowa St. (69) | 1992 Nebraska (13) | 94.06% |
| 6 | 2007 Appalachian St. (64*) | 2007 Michigan (13) | 88.10% |
| 7 | 1986 California (52) | 1986 Stanford (15) | 86.65% |
| 8 | 1985 Oregon St. (77) | 1985 Washington (37) | 85.54% |
| 9 | 1942 Holy Cross (57) | 1942 Boston College (17) | 80.23% |
| 10 | 1972 Missouri (31) | 1972 Notre Dame (14) | 69.5% |
| 11 | 1949 Auburn (65) | 1949 Alabama (41) | 69.15% |
| 12 | 1969 San Jose St. (71) | 1969 Oregon (45) | 65.91% |
| 13 | 1921 Centre (27) | 1921 Harvard (20) | 56.36% |
* – Appalachian State ranking based on where they would have been if they were D-1A
| Rank | Winner (Season Ranking) | Loser (Season Ranking) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1961 TCU (32) | 1961 Texas (2) | 92.51% |
| 2 | 1941 Baylor (59) (GAME TIED) | 1941 Texas (3) | 89.07% |
| 3 | 1962 Rice (52) (GAME TIED) | 1962 Texas (8) | 88.01% |
| 4 | 1996 Oklahoma (78) | 1996 Texas (23) | 87.70% |
| 5 | 1999 Texas (23) | 1999 Nebraska (3) | 86.43% |
| 6 | 1968 Texas Tech (41) | 1968 Texas (3) | 86.21% |
| 7 | 1978 Baylor (39) | 1978 Texas (8) | 85.99% |
| 8 | 1948 Texas A&M (68) (GAME TIED) | 1948 Texas (17) | 84.61% |
| 9 | 1992 TCU (91) | 1992 Texas (48) | 83.15% |
| 10 | 1976 Texas (29) (GAME TIED) | 1976 Oklahoma (9) | 81.86% |
| 11 | 1994 Rice (72) | 1994 Texas (33) | 81.33% |
| 12 | 1965 Rice (71) | 1965 Texas (27) | 81.33% |
| 13 | 1967 Texas (33) | 1967 Oklahoma (2) | 81.06% |
| 14 | 1996 Texas (23) | 1996 Nebraska (5) | 80.51% |
| 15 | 1991 Texas (46) | 1991 Oklahoma (17) | 80.51% |
| 16 | 1980 Texas (29) | 1980 Oklahoma (6) | 80.23% |
| 17 | 1957 Texas (50) | 1957 Baylor (22) | 80.23% |
The 1968 Texas Tech loss is obviously a big one when viewed at the end of the season, but we know that the new system was still being implemented early in the year.
If any of you have some big upsets in mind that I’ve missed, let me know and I’ll plug in the numbers.
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Recruiting the Trenches ago
I like my wine in a box…. I like my wine in a box GIIIRL
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Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Did Rick Barnes use a plant last night to distract KU players? ago
We commented on the lass during telecast. Thanks for, getting this up, so to speak.
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Mister Mike commented on the blog post Recruiting the Trenches ago
Sailor’s sponsoring it? Holy shit…that likely means goats, togas, and lots of cheap wine.
Welcome to the network!
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Farmer Ted commented on the blog post Recruiting the Trenches ago
Nice job with this – and welcome to the network, on behalf of Better Off Red. See you at the Fantake retreat in Vegas that Sailor Ripley is sponsoring this summer!
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J Rog commented on the blog post Game Day: Spurs vs. Lakers Open Thread ago
Fell apart in the fourth quarter again. Can’t give up 28 points to close out a game. Spurs, Longhorns….heartache once again.
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Farmer Ted commented on the blog post Thoughts on the win in Austin ago
Nice job Hiphop. Very nice to win what is probably the toughest game on the schedule handily, although the Hawks obviously caught UT at a good time.
The Morningstar FT was terrible and hilarious. He said the ball was wet, which clearly means Texas was cheating somehow. Would the second chance off balance leaner
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J Rog wrote a new blog post: Missed Opportunities: Spurs vs. Lakers Recap 3 minutes ago
Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot. This game was served up on a silver platter for the Spurs and they managed to fumble it like a Minnesota Viking in the playoffs.
I think perhaps Will Ferrell can describe my emotions on the current state of the Spurs season better than I.
The Spurs hung around for most of the
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slugfest commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 6 minutes ago
EP, I get your point, but I don’t think the fact that Texas hasn’t won a tourney came as an underdog doesn’t support it. Teams are favored because they are better. The odds that they win are greater than those who are not favored. It’s not like Texas goes into games with a secret weapon
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Mister Mike commented on the blog post Did Rick Barnes use a plant last night to distract KU players? 11 minutes ago
I think KU should demand an immediate investigation. Find someone to get to the bottom of this.
I volunteer myself.
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Top 8 Teams in College Hoops 14 minutes ago
Georgetown?
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RRR commented on the blog post Thoughts on the win in Austin 14 minutes ago
Good write up, hiphop. I love the versatitility of the Morris twins on defense. Xavier Henry is probably the key to a big run in the tournament. If he starts hitting open looks, the inside game will really open up. Post to post passing is fun to watch.
It’s pretty nice when
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 18 minutes ago
PB, just talking. I’m not ready to replace him but something has to change. The comment about playing 3 on 5 three quarters into the season is just astoundingly bad.
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas 27 minutes ago
Here is more info on Frazier. He is such a great player, and Arkansas needs to land him in a big way.
http://www.kiehlfrazier15.com/Home.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow1mOrMQXYw
These Highlights are from his Sophomore year, and he had a bigger and better 2009. OH MY!
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas 27 minutes ago
Here is more info on Frazier. He is such a great player, and Arkansas needs to land him in a big way.
http://www.kiehlfrazier15.com/Home.html
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ow1mOrMQXYw
These Highlights are from his Sophomore year, and he had a bigger and better 2009. OH MY!
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas 27 minutes ago
Here is more info on Frazier. He is such a great player, and Arkansas needs to land him in a big way.
http://www.kiehlfrazier15.com/Home.html
These Highlights are from his Sophomore year, and he had a bigger and better 2009. OH MY!
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 29 minutes ago
It takes more time…unless you’re a Kentucky fan.
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RRR commented on the blog post Mid-Season Thoughts and OU Pre-Game 31 minutes ago
Thanks Trips. I’m hoping for lots of Willie Warren trying to be Sheron Collins. TMG in sync is the scariest thing to face in Norman. That or we get beat up on the boards which seems to be recurring theme of Texas Tech road games.
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slugfest commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 32 minutes ago
I don’t think it’s a case of RB not being able to coach, or doing a poor job of coaching. If you read the entirety of Katz’ blog post, he clearly sounds like a coaching searching for answers — answers that come in the form of players contributing, doing what they are coached to do.
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post John Pelphrey’s Unconventional Approach 39 minutes ago
I agree that an NIT bid would be acceptable this year, but that if the Razorbacks can get to 20 wins they will have a very good chance at the NCAA Tourney.
Our RPI is bad, and we have no signature wins.
However, we have 8 games left on the SEC regular season schedule. If we
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post John Pelphrey’s Unconventional Approach 39 minutes ago
I agree that an NIT bid would be acceptable this year, but that if the Razorbacks can get to 20 wins they will have a very good chance at the NCAA Tourney.
Our RPI is bad, and we have no signature wins.
However, we have 8 games left on the SEC regular season schedule. If we
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Blake Stansbery commented on the blog post Recruiting the Trenches 43 minutes ago
TP welcome to the network.
I like how you broke this down, and identified which positions history shows a high star ranking has proven to be important. I personally feel that after what all the recruiting sites dub their top players that there is a major falloff. We all love that the recruiting sites bring
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Art Vandelay commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 44 minutes ago
Groundhog Day said:
February 9th, 2010 at 10:00 am“How can everyone on the team have worse basketball sense than my 5th graders? Honestly? We are the dumbest bunch I have ever seen. We weren’t earlier in the year. Hell, Bradley was smartest player, by far, in any of the summer h.s. games. Now he plays
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Farmer Ted commented on the blog post Petrino Building Fence Around Arkansas 46 minutes ago
Good stuff JA. But the Huskers call dibs on any dual threat QB named Frazier thankyouverymuch.
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Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post Did Rick Barnes use a plant last night to distract KU players? 49 minutes ago
I’m convinced.
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skymonkeyhorn commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 53 minutes ago
“No, but I became a man in Juarez.”
I bet in your fantasy you were the donkey in the show ? No ?“Eight Dollar drink-and-drowns, and cans that merely say “beer” in Juarez will turn anyone into a man”
That is why Trips was drinking river water by the bridge for too many years. In the -
Darius Pourceau commented on the blog post John Pelphrey’s Unconventional Approach 54 minutes ago
I don’t think we have to win the SEC tourny necessarily. If we make it to the SEC Tourny championship game and have won about 20 games, I would say a tourny bid would look likely. But that is a pretty big task. I know no one cares about the NIT, but that wouldnt be
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Nordberg commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 1 hour ago
I like Varez Ward, but he doesn’t seem like the magical missing piece to me. And we’ve got like 15 other guys on scholarship. Losing Varez Ward shouldn’t turn the season into a trainwreck.
Barnes’ “we’re going to fix it” quotes are starting to remind me of Greg Davis talking about fixing the running game. If
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Mister Mike commented on the blog post Thoughts on the win in Austin 1 hour ago
Don’t follow basketball as much as you guys do here, but I did watch that game last night. Using my extensive experience in analyzing the sport (next to none) the game felt like it had that “Big Game” feel to it, but somehow it just didn’t turn out that way. Kind of…lackluster?
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Nordberg commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 1 hour, 9 minutes ago
How much is Mark Few making? Hell, make a run at Izzo. We can do that kind of shit now.
Trips that Barnes quote is infuriating, considering that our entire fanbase has been saying that exact same line for months. Has he been hoping this whole time that they’d turn into Augustin and Gibson?
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Kansas: Post-Mortem 1 hour, 12 minutes ago
No, but I became a man in Juarez.
TaylorTRoom said:
August 11th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
I’m puzzled over the lack of old games. I wonder if it has something to do with the nature of the game. In the old days, there might be just a few scoring opportunities. Teams had their fastest players playing safety, to keep the long score from happening. Teams would punt on 3rd down to try and get a little better field position.
You would think that in such a game, an underdog could get lucky on just one play that makes the difference (as did happen to the Horns in ‘61). Maybe it just wasn’t that simple.
Huckleberry said:
August 11th, 2008 at 12:45 pm
I really think it has to do with the number of games and even moreso the number of interregional games.
Back in the old days there weren’t enough different paths by which to connect two teams. So their head-to-head result had a greater impact on their ratings relative to each other. Now, when Stanford beats Southern Cal, there are a large number of game paths that discount that result and “prove” that the Trojans are a better team than the Cardinal. The fewer games and interregional matchups there are, the less contradictory evidence available.
srr50 said:
August 11th, 2008 at 1:03 pm
What about the 1941 7-7 tie between Baylor and Texas?
Texas was 6-0 averaging over 38 points a game while only giving up 27 total points in the 6 contest. Baylor ended up the season 3-6-1, with the three wins over Hardin-Simmons, the University of Denver, and Arkansas.
Texas was #1 and was going to be on the cover of Life Magazine the next week. The 7-7 tie only dropped them to #2 in the rating, but the 14-7 loss to TCU (who played in the Sugar Bowl that year) dropped Texas to #4 in the final AP Poll.
Huckleberry said:
August 11th, 2008 at 1:30 pm
89.07% on that Baylor tie. So it would move into the #2 spot in Texas upset history.
Doperbo said:
August 11th, 2008 at 1:34 pm
Nice breakdown. Out of sheer curiosity where would Texas ‘upset’ of USC rank? There are certain ESPN inboxes that need said information.
Huckleberry said:
August 11th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
N/A
Not an upset. Wasn’t even an upset before the game as Texas was rated #1 in almost every computer rating, including mine. Massey, Sagarin, etc.
Basically all the good systems.
Anyway, the number is 69.15% for the 2005 Texas/USC matchup. The system says Texas would win basically 7 out of 10 matchups.
Scipio Tex said:
August 11th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Agreed. Texas over USC was an upset of perception. Nothing more. We were a dominant team by any objective measure.
Thanks, Huck. This was cool stuff.
srr50 said:
August 11th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
“89.07% on that Baylor tie. So it would move into the #2 spot in Texas upset history.”
Thanks Huck. While you are at it, could you run the numbers on the 14-14 tie with Rice in 1962?
Rice won only two games that year, and the tie cost Texas the National Championship. (They were #1 at the time and didn’t lose until the Cotton Bowl to LSU).
I have always assumed that had Texas beaten Rice and been declared National Champs, we would have had the Final Poll vote changed to after bowl games a few years earlier that it happened.
Spawn of Cthulhu said:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:14 pm
BC ultimately didn’t mind losing in 1942 to Holy Cross 55-12 (#9 in your second list), though it cost them the #1 ranking at the end of the season. Since they lost, the players cancelled their plans to celebrate at the Cocoanut Grove nightclub later that evening. 492 unfortunates attended, though, and were burnt to death when the place caught on fire.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cocoanut_Grove_fire
History Horn said:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Where would 1942 Northwestern (1-9) 3, Texas (9-2) 0 rank?
Huckleberry said:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
77.04% on the Northwestern loss. The war years have some weird ratings situations and I’m thinking about rerunning those. Northwestern played an incredibly difficult schedule that year, though, which I’m sure depresses the result.
The 1962 Rice/Texas tie is 88.1%.
The numbers in this post are approximations as the file isn’t here and it’s chicken scratch on a napkin type calculations.
srr50 said:
August 11th, 2008 at 3:57 pm
“The numbers in this post are approximations as the file isn’t here and it’s chicken scratch on a napkin type calculations.”
That’s okay, you have always been clutch when it comes to numbers.
Huckleberry said:
August 12th, 2008 at 5:30 am
Added the above games as well as some others to the Texas table.
J.R.69 said:
August 12th, 2008 at 7:55 am
How about Royal’s first win over OU, 15-14 in 1958.
dedfischer said:
August 12th, 2008 at 8:00 am
My dad maintains that the biggest upset in history (and labeled “The Upset of The Decade” for some time) was Tech’s 1966 win over Arkansas to knock them out of the national title hunt. He reminds my mother about 4 times a year that she skipped the game to go Christmas shopping with her little Chi-O friends because Tech sucked that season and it was cold outside. Followed by a loud thrashing of a retro Saddle Tramp bell.
dedfischer said:
August 12th, 2008 at 8:02 am
Huckleberry, could you see where that one ranks, it might have been 1968, not for sure? I would like to let my dad know exactly where it stands based on sufficient statistical analysis.
Huckleberry said:
August 12th, 2008 at 9:24 am
1958 Texas over Oklahoma is 70.88%. Seems like it should be higher to me as well.
I believe 1966 is the game you’re talking about, ded. It rates a 79.67%. Arkansas was 8-1 going into the game and Tech was 3-6.
dedfischer said:
August 12th, 2008 at 9:36 am
That would be the one. I actually need to correct myself, it was labeled “The Upset of the Century” for a while. Looks like my dad is a hot, mouth liar. I feel like the dude in Big Fish.
dedfischer said:
August 12th, 2008 at 9:49 am
It’s also funny that every time he tells the story, Tech’s record at the time gets worse and worse. I was convinced they were 0-36 through 9 games that year.
Huckleberry said:
August 12th, 2008 at 9:58 am
Well, Arkansas was definitely a top team then. They had been upset by Baylor, who finished 5-5, earlier in the year. But from 1964 until the bowl game after the 1965 season they had won 21 games in a row.
I’m sure that colors his memory of the game. Meanwhile, Tech had gone on a 5-game losing streak earlier in the year and the 3 teams they’d beaten finished with a combined total record of 8-20-1.
dedfischer said:
August 12th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Has anybody else been catching any of those SWC Season Recaps from the 60s and 70s on Fox Sports SW? I saw the one for 1966 the other day and called my parents to make sure they caught. It featured the Tech/Ark game at the very end. There was/were car/cars parked on the sidelines. My dad said he used to drive that old thing to haul guests of honor around before the game. It was just weird seeing a guy streak down the sideline for a TD and then he passes a Cadillac.
Statalyzer said:
August 18th, 2008 at 6:17 am
Your second table includes a bunch of games that aren’t ties or D1AA games but nevertheless are not on the first list, even though you said the second list was everything on the first list plus the SMU-A&M tie and the Appalachian St-Michigan upset. What is the actual criteria for the 2nd list that adds the other 11 games? Losing team wasn’t considered top 1000?
Huckleberry said:
August 18th, 2008 at 6:20 am
No, the second list is all the games from the links I provided plus the extra couple of games. Games from the first list weren’t in that one.
Atomic Teeth » Blog Archive » How the Tigers Can Win, Part 2 said:
December 4th, 2008 at 7:08 pm
[...] by contrast, looks miniscule. For a more in depth look at college football upsettery, check out Huckleberry’s post on the topic over at Barking Carnival. It would be interesting to know whether a Mizzou win would even come [...]