Connect with your Facebook Account

• Contact

Football Articles

24

College Football’s Biggest Upsets

Posted by Huckleberry on August 11th, 2008 under Football

height=I’m back with more riveting statistical analysis for the world. Try to stay calm and please, do not mob me when I go out in public. Just be patient as I have never refused a photo or autograph request from a fan.

This newest list will once again be based on my ratings, which of course will introduce a few constraints on the analysis. My historical ratings are obviously year-end results and not even I am interested in recalculating each season by taking out the upset in question and then assigning a value. So this analysis is based on each team’s final rating for the full season (including the upset). The z-table was limited to one-hundredths accuracy, meaning that rating differences were rounded. This results in some of the games having the same percentage, but they are sorted by actual difference.

My first step was to take the Top 1000 teams in the All-Time ratings set and look at any losses they suffered. I then took the difference in the final ratings between the two teams, applied a standard z-table, and determined the percentage likelihood that the better team would win a rematch according to the final ratings. The effect of the constraint listed above now becomes apparent. Because the computer used the actual upset in its calculations, it sees the upset as a “true” evaluation of the two teams’ abilities. Therefore the percentages that this technique produces are deflated relative to if I had recalculated the year’s ratings without the upset and then looked at the matchup. Each team’s worst loss was analyzed and if that loss had a percentage of 80% or greater – remember, this is the probability that the ratings say the loser would win a rematch – then their next worst loss was looked at. This ensured that all losses scoring greater than 80% among the All-Time Top 1000 teams were accounted for.

So here are the 25 Biggest Upsets in College Football History using only the top 1000 teams and losses (ties not included). Season ranks are based on D-1A teams only.

Rank Winner (Season Ranking) Loser (Season Ranking) %
1 1981 Georgia Tech (102) 1981 Alabama (9) 98.26%
2 1978 Memphis (77) 1978 Houston (11) 95.73%
3 1980 New Mexico (86) 1980 BYU (14) 95.64%
4 1982 Washington St. (71) 1982 Washington (8) 95.35%
5 1999 Cincinnati (72) 1999 Wisconsin (6) 95.25%
6 2007 Stanford (68) 2007 Southern Cal (6) 95.05%
7 1977 Mississippi (44) 1977 Notre Dame (3) 94.74%
8 1989 Southern Miss (46) 1989 Florida St. (4) 94.06%
9 2007 Pittsburgh (61) 2007 West Virginia (5) 93.45%
10 2001 Oklahoma St. (62) 2001 Oklahoma (6) 92.79%
11 1961 TCU (32) 1961 Texas (2) 92.51%
12 1998 Michigan St. (33) 1998 Ohio St. (2) 92.22%
13 2002 Texas A&M (47) 2002 Oklahoma (4) 91.77%
14 1991 Southern Cal (39) 1991 Penn St. (6) 91.62%
15 1996 Memphis (57) 1996 Tennessee (8) 91.62%
16 1976 Purdue (40) 1976 Michigan (3) 91.47%
17 1993 Minnesota (50) 1993 Wisconsin (8) 91.47%
18 1998 North Carolina St. (34) 1998 Florida St. (3) 91.31%
19 2003 California (34) 2003 Southern Cal (2) 91.15%
20 1976 Mississippi (39) 1976 Georgia (4) 91.15%
21 1957 Kentucky (48) 1957 Tennessee (8) 90.99%
22 1970 Texas A&M (59) 1970 LSU (9) 90.32%
23 1978 Oklahoma St. (62) 1978 Missouri (15) 89.62%
24 2001 Auburn (28) 2001 Florida (2) 89.44%
25 1980 San Jose St. (62) 1980 Baylor (15) 89.25%

At this point I always like to clarify that this list is not intended to be the final say in this discussion, only a starting point. Obviously some of the games are so close in their ranking that even this system doesn’t really declare a clear winner. Also, as I’m sure many of you are wondering, Bob Stoops also appears on the list at #28 (2007 Colorado) and #30 (2002 Oklahoma St.); Mack Brown has never lost an 80% game. Hey, at least it’s something, right? Pete Carroll also appears at #33 (2006 UCLA) and #72 (2006 Oregon St.). I’m starting to think that the more great teams you have the more likely they are to be upset.

One of the things I noticed was the lack of old games. Part of it is certainly parity, but I think the biggest factor in this discrepancy is that more games are played, giving the system a better idea of teams’ true strength. Back in the old days when a team would only play one or two games against good teams, those games are all the system has to rate the teams. So what was probably a huge upset (like Centre over Harvard in 1921) is not considered as big in my ratings because the winner is inflated due to the lack of other information.

After this was complete I decided to throw in some other games. To do so I used the following links as a starting point:

Biggest Point Spread Reversals

A blogger’s list of big upsets

Ivan Maisel’s biggest upsets written in 2002

I also decided to throw in ties because of Maisel’s article and the only big one I could think of was Texas A&M and SMU back in the day. So here is a table that includes all games in the above links plus that A&M/SMU tie and Appalachian St./Michigan game, followed by a table showing the biggest upsets that Texas has been involved in. However, I did leave out the games in the above links that are not considered upsets under this system.

Rank Winner (Season Ranking) Loser (Season Ranking) %
1 1985 UTEP (108) 1985 BYU (22) 99.68%
2 1994 SMU (85) (GAME TIED) 1994 Texas A&M (10) 98.54%
3 1998 Temple (93) 1998 Virginia Tech (21) 98.12%
4 1980 Georgia Tech (83) (GAME TIED) 1980 Notre Dame (8) 97.19%
5 1992 Iowa St. (69) 1992 Nebraska (13) 94.06%
6 2007 Appalachian St. (64*) 2007 Michigan (13) 88.10%
7 1986 California (52) 1986 Stanford (15) 86.65%
8 1985 Oregon St. (77) 1985 Washington (37) 85.54%
9 1942 Holy Cross (57) 1942 Boston College (17) 80.23%
10 1972 Missouri (31) 1972 Notre Dame (14) 69.5%
11 1949 Auburn (65) 1949 Alabama (41) 69.15%
12 1969 San Jose St. (71) 1969 Oregon (45) 65.91%
13 1921 Centre (27) 1921 Harvard (20) 56.36%

* – Appalachian State ranking based on where they would have been if they were D-1A

Rank Winner (Season Ranking) Loser (Season Ranking) %
1 1961 TCU (32) 1961 Texas (2) 92.51%
2 1941 Baylor (59) (GAME TIED) 1941 Texas (3) 89.07%
3 1962 Rice (52) (GAME TIED) 1962 Texas (8) 88.01%
4 1996 Oklahoma (78) 1996 Texas (23) 87.70%
5 1999 Texas (23) 1999 Nebraska (3) 86.43%
6 1968 Texas Tech (41) 1968 Texas (3) 86.21%
7 1978 Baylor (39) 1978 Texas (8) 85.99%
8 1948 Texas A&M (68) (GAME TIED) 1948 Texas (17) 84.61%
9 1992 TCU (91) 1992 Texas (48) 83.15%
10 1976 Texas (29) (GAME TIED) 1976 Oklahoma (9) 81.86%
11 1994 Rice (72) 1994 Texas (33) 81.33%
12 1965 Rice (71) 1965 Texas (27) 81.33%
13 1967 Texas (33) 1967 Oklahoma (2) 81.06%
14 1996 Texas (23) 1996 Nebraska (5) 80.51%
15 1991 Texas (46) 1991 Oklahoma (17) 80.51%
16 1980 Texas (29) 1980 Oklahoma (6) 80.23%
17 1957 Texas (50) 1957 Baylor (22) 80.23%

The 1968 Texas Tech loss is obviously a big one when viewed at the end of the season, but we know that the new system was still being implemented early in the year.

If any of you have some big upsets in mind that I’ve missed, let me know and I’ll plug in the numbers.

Article Tags:

, , , , ,

More from this Barker


Share This

  • StumbleUpon

24 Responses

  1. TaylorTRoom said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 12:30 pm

    I’m puzzled over the lack of old games. I wonder if it has something to do with the nature of the game. In the old days, there might be just a few scoring opportunities. Teams had their fastest players playing safety, to keep the long score from happening. Teams would punt on 3rd down to try and get a little better field position.

    You would think that in such a game, an underdog could get lucky on just one play that makes the difference (as did happen to the Horns in ‘61). Maybe it just wasn’t that simple.

  2. Huckleberry said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    I really think it has to do with the number of games and even moreso the number of interregional games.

    Back in the old days there weren’t enough different paths by which to connect two teams. So their head-to-head result had a greater impact on their ratings relative to each other. Now, when Stanford beats Southern Cal, there are a large number of game paths that discount that result and “prove” that the Trojans are a better team than the Cardinal. The fewer games and interregional matchups there are, the less contradictory evidence available.

  3. srr50 said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    What about the 1941 7-7 tie between Baylor and Texas?

    Texas was 6-0 averaging over 38 points a game while only giving up 27 total points in the 6 contest. Baylor ended up the season 3-6-1, with the three wins over Hardin-Simmons, the University of Denver, and Arkansas.

    Texas was #1 and was going to be on the cover of Life Magazine the next week. The 7-7 tie only dropped them to #2 in the rating, but the 14-7 loss to TCU (who played in the Sugar Bowl that year) dropped Texas to #4 in the final AP Poll.

  4. Huckleberry said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 1:30 pm

    89.07% on that Baylor tie. So it would move into the #2 spot in Texas upset history.

  5. Doperbo said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    Nice breakdown. Out of sheer curiosity where would Texas ‘upset’ of USC rank? There are certain ESPN inboxes that need said information.

  6. Huckleberry said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 1:45 pm

    N/A

    Not an upset. Wasn’t even an upset before the game as Texas was rated #1 in almost every computer rating, including mine. Massey, Sagarin, etc.

    Basically all the good systems.

    Anyway, the number is 69.15% for the 2005 Texas/USC matchup. The system says Texas would win basically 7 out of 10 matchups.

  7. Scipio Tex said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 2:12 pm

    Agreed. Texas over USC was an upset of perception. Nothing more. We were a dominant team by any objective measure.

    Thanks, Huck. This was cool stuff.

  8. srr50 said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 2:36 pm

    “89.07% on that Baylor tie. So it would move into the #2 spot in Texas upset history.”

    Thanks Huck. While you are at it, could you run the numbers on the 14-14 tie with Rice in 1962?

    Rice won only two games that year, and the tie cost Texas the National Championship. (They were #1 at the time and didn’t lose until the Cotton Bowl to LSU).

    I have always assumed that had Texas beaten Rice and been declared National Champs, we would have had the Final Poll vote changed to after bowl games a few years earlier that it happened.

  9. Spawn of Cthulhu said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    BC ultimately didn’t mind losing in 1942 to Holy Cross 55-12 (#9 in your second list), though it cost them the #1 ranking at the end of the season. Since they lost, the players cancelled their plans to celebrate at the Cocoanut Grove nightclub later that evening. 492 unfortunates attended, though, and were burnt to death when the place caught on fire.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cocoanut_Grove_fire

  10. History Horn said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    Where would 1942 Northwestern (1-9) 3, Texas (9-2) 0 rank?

  11. Huckleberry said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 3:44 pm

    77.04% on the Northwestern loss. The war years have some weird ratings situations and I’m thinking about rerunning those. Northwestern played an incredibly difficult schedule that year, though, which I’m sure depresses the result.

    The 1962 Rice/Texas tie is 88.1%.

    The numbers in this post are approximations as the file isn’t here and it’s chicken scratch on a napkin type calculations.

  12. srr50 said:

    August 11th, 2008 at 3:57 pm

    “The numbers in this post are approximations as the file isn’t here and it’s chicken scratch on a napkin type calculations.”

    That’s okay, you have always been clutch when it comes to numbers.

  13. Huckleberry said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 5:30 am

    Added the above games as well as some others to the Texas table.

  14. J.R.69 said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 7:55 am

    How about Royal’s first win over OU, 15-14 in 1958.

  15. dedfischer said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 8:00 am

    My dad maintains that the biggest upset in history (and labeled “The Upset of The Decade” for some time) was Tech’s 1966 win over Arkansas to knock them out of the national title hunt. He reminds my mother about 4 times a year that she skipped the game to go Christmas shopping with her little Chi-O friends because Tech sucked that season and it was cold outside. Followed by a loud thrashing of a retro Saddle Tramp bell.

  16. dedfischer said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 8:02 am

    Huckleberry, could you see where that one ranks, it might have been 1968, not for sure? I would like to let my dad know exactly where it stands based on sufficient statistical analysis.

  17. Huckleberry said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 9:24 am

    1958 Texas over Oklahoma is 70.88%. Seems like it should be higher to me as well.

    I believe 1966 is the game you’re talking about, ded. It rates a 79.67%. Arkansas was 8-1 going into the game and Tech was 3-6.

  18. dedfischer said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 9:36 am

    That would be the one. I actually need to correct myself, it was labeled “The Upset of the Century” for a while. Looks like my dad is a hot, mouth liar. I feel like the dude in Big Fish.

  19. dedfischer said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 9:49 am

    It’s also funny that every time he tells the story, Tech’s record at the time gets worse and worse. I was convinced they were 0-36 through 9 games that year.

  20. Huckleberry said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 9:58 am

    Well, Arkansas was definitely a top team then. They had been upset by Baylor, who finished 5-5, earlier in the year. But from 1964 until the bowl game after the 1965 season they had won 21 games in a row.

    I’m sure that colors his memory of the game. Meanwhile, Tech had gone on a 5-game losing streak earlier in the year and the 3 teams they’d beaten finished with a combined total record of 8-20-1.

  21. dedfischer said:

    August 12th, 2008 at 10:04 am

    Has anybody else been catching any of those SWC Season Recaps from the 60s and 70s on Fox Sports SW? I saw the one for 1966 the other day and called my parents to make sure they caught. It featured the Tech/Ark game at the very end. There was/were car/cars parked on the sidelines. My dad said he used to drive that old thing to haul guests of honor around before the game. It was just weird seeing a guy streak down the sideline for a TD and then he passes a Cadillac.

  22. Statalyzer said:

    August 18th, 2008 at 6:17 am

    Your second table includes a bunch of games that aren’t ties or D1AA games but nevertheless are not on the first list, even though you said the second list was everything on the first list plus the SMU-A&M tie and the Appalachian St-Michigan upset. What is the actual criteria for the 2nd list that adds the other 11 games? Losing team wasn’t considered top 1000?

  23. Huckleberry said:

    August 18th, 2008 at 6:20 am

    No, the second list is all the games from the links I provided plus the extra couple of games. Games from the first list weren’t in that one.

  24. Atomic Teeth » Blog Archive » How the Tigers Can Win, Part 2 said:

    December 4th, 2008 at 7:08 pm

    [...] by contrast, looks miniscule.  For a more in depth look at college football upsettery, check out Huckleberry’s post on the topic over at Barking Carnival.  It would be interesting to know whether a Mizzou win would even come [...]

Leave a Reply

Follow Us

Related Articles

Hot Forum Topics

Activity

  • dick commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   27 minutes ago

    Hopefully, yall caught the Maryland Michigan St ending. Freakin’ thrilling. Maryland almost pulled off a comeback for the ages.

    officially the best opening weekend ever

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   32 minutes ago

    Tom Izzo can coach some ball.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   33 minutes ago

    MSU at the buzzer!!!!!!

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   35 minutes ago

    Fear the Turtle! Came all the way back from a dozen down to take the lead on MSU…

  • D W commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   42 minutes ago

    It’s incredible how few teams play good, fundamental basketball.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   46 minutes ago

    tOSU will be moving on. Evan Turner does a little of everything. 22 pts, 8 reb, 8 ass. Great player.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   46 minutes ago

    tOSU will be moving on. Evan Turner does a little of everything. 22 pts, 8 reb, 8 ast. Great player.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   52 minutes ago

    Bob Huggins looks like a guy I wouldn’t want to play for. He makes Barnes look like Dick Vermeil….

  • Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   54 minutes ago

    Scratch that. The Big Red are blowing Wisconsin out.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   56 minutes ago

    I’d be happy to see the last two minutes of the OSU/Tech game. 4 pt game with just under two minutes.

    Cornell putting it to the Bo Ryan’s….

  • Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   1 hour, 23 minutes ago

    Cornell is playing phenomenally well. I’d be surprised if Wiscy doesn’t cut into the lead in the 2nd half.

    Jay Bilas may end up looking like a genius.

  • admin commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   1 hour, 38 minutes ago

    parlin – Shoot me an email sailorripley at barkingcarnival dot com.

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   2 hours, 32 minutes ago

    I really want Mizzou to give it to WVU.

  • Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Round 2 Saturday Recaps   2 hours, 45 minutes ago

    What kind of NBA player does Samhan end up as?

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • dick commented on the blog post Second Round Bets   2 hours, 57 minutes ago

    I really like Cal today.

    ATM and Cornell look too good to be true and the public is all over both of them.

    I gotta believe that Izzo beats Maryland today, I haven’t been impressed with the Terps this year. I am surprised that they are favored.

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   3 hours, 20 minutes ago

    Gonzaga is getting plowed like a future Zeta during her Provisional Summer session.

  • Alex wrote a new blog post: The Top 10 Reasons our Cal Bears will beat the Duke Blue Devils   3 hours, 24 minutes ago

    Kevin Berger from March To March lays it out for us here.

    1) Interior Worries. As in the Bears shouldn’t have any defensively even if Cal is an undersized group. Brian Zoubek and Lance Thomas aren’t going to drop step and dunk you to death on the low block so Mike Montgomery can

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   3 hours, 31 minutes ago

    Jordan Hamilton + 2 years ~ Wesley Johnson. Discuss.

  • James commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   3 hours, 49 minutes ago

    ” a heavily tattooed lycanthrope Irish wookie named Lucas O’Rear”

    That is just strong command of the English language.

    This piece was a nice balm on the hangover.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post Texas Turns the Page   3 hours, 51 minutes ago

    gotta,

    I think your overall point is a good one. Barnes is a “system” guy especially defensively, which plays into how he overall plays the game. He wants to play a high pressure, overplay man2man scheme predicated on effort, good technique and overall quickness. Similar to Duke, but even Coach K (in fairness

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   4 hours, 2 minutes ago

    Would have never guessed that UNI had an Ali shooting threes for them….

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   4 hours, 18 minutes ago

    Anyone else as confused as I am by this “Ivan Brothers” ad campaign? WTF?

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   4 hours, 22 minutes ago

    Cuse looking strong. Another week of R&R for the big man….

  • Luke wrote a new blog post: BYU postgame   4 hours, 49 minutes ago

    http://nbcsportsmedia1.msnbc.com/j/apmegasports/201003202121769017659-pf.widec.jpg

    What a glorious, glorious day of basketball at the Ford Center Saturday.

    First, Ali Ali Farokhmanesh and all the other Panthers with cool names took down Kansas as Sherron Collins made his best effort to shed that “clutch” label on the last game of his collegiate career. Then of course, Kansas State waved goodbye to Jimmer

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Art Vandelay commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   5 hours, 25 minutes ago

    Ali Farokhmanesh hitting the biggest shot of the season is the definition of March Madness.

    Ali Boma Ye!!!

  • skymonkeyhorn commented on the blog post Texas Hoops vs. Wake Forest: Post Mortem   6 hours, 47 minutes ago

    It is just amazing to me that most posters think that Jordan has improved so much in the last half of the season.
    The one thing I will say is that Jordan has just started to show his ability with a basketball. The reason that he did not show his talents is up to all the

  • Ag_in_TX wrote a new blog post: Purdue Pre-game   6 hours, 53 minutes ago

    Offense

    Both teams are unselfish and preach sharing the ball. A&M is a balanced scoring team. Sloan showed in the first round against Utah State, for example, that he can defer when his teammates have things going. Purdue once again will have to rely on JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore to produce, and hope

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post We Have Our Answer   7 hours, 9 minutes ago

    And yes, it appears JoPo wrote pretty much the same thing. It’s hard to believe with all the national talking heads, fans, and everyone in between saying otherwise, but I think it’s the only conclusion to draw for anyone that really watched this team.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Hiphopopotamus commented on the blog post We Have Our Answer   7 hours, 9 minutes ago

    And yes, it appears JoPo wrote pretty much the same thing. It’s hard to believe with all the national talking heads, fans, and everyone in between saying otherwise, but I think it’s the only conclusion to draw for anyone that really watched this team.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Hiphopopotamus wrote a new blog post: We Have Our Answer   7 hours, 11 minutes ago

    Normally, after a big win or a crushing defeat, I don’t know what to think, say, or feel, because I can’t. And that what makes this one different; it’s just as painful, but I saw it coming. Instead of getting blindsided by the oncoming traffic, I was able to brace myself for the

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });