Football Articles
A Maker Of Plays
Posted by ChrisApplewhite on July 3rd, 2008 under Football
There are two kinds of football plays. Some that happen, and some that are made.
If you rely on plays happening, then you’ll lose to any team that can put up a decent fight, especially if your coach is subpar.
Here is what I mean.
A 6 yard hitch is a useful football play, but it’s high school stuff. If a corner is playing 12 yards off, then just about any moderately athletic 16 year old could run that route and catch that ball. Defenses will mostly let you do it because eventually you’ll bounce a pass, or the WR will drop it, and now you have a 3rd and 4 and anything can happen.
It is easy to beat single coverage if the two men involved are of roughly the same athletic talent and skill. This is why the spread offenses work. They make you cover every player and every gap and make it a game of one on one, which any well coached offense will win. When the players are slower, the field becomes bigger, and high school and lower level college teams explode offensively.
Don’t be impressed be the WR who can beat a CB on a slant for 8 yards. That’s nothing. It’s mostly the QB and the defensive call that will determine that success.
A good defense will gang up on any real threat, leaving man to man situations underneath where they won’t do much harm. This is why the “explosive plays” as we’ve come to know and love every Monday press conference are so important — because they are the single most valuable thing an offense can achieve outside of scoring the football. They are valuable because they are rare, and they are rare (for us) because we play good teams.
In order to score against those good teams, you need playmakers.
A playmaker, or as the Germans call it: D’yermaker, is not necessarily the guy ripping off 50 yard gains every other play. All he needs to to is open up avenues for other players to succeed. If a RB can’t run against an 8 man front, but allows the passing game to set records thanks to a field full of one on one matchups, then he made that happen. If he can run against 8 man fronts then all the better.
The question we at The Award Winning The Barking Carnival have is:
Who will be our playmakers?
Nobody knows. It’s a risky thing to prognosticate this early. But you better be damn sure we’re not afraid to trot out some percentages like they mean anything.
Jordan Shipley
He is so good he doesn’t even get a percentage. He is a lock to be fantastic. People forget about him but he has monster talent and finally looked quick again in the spring. Nobody on the squad has his quickness and body control, and only Brandon Collins and maybe Quan Cosby are even in the ballpark as far as hands go.
It’s not a stretch to say that no one defensive player will be able to cover Shipley one on one this season. Most modern defenses are in some form of a cover 2 shell, though, which makes it easy to double cover both outside receivers. Even with one good WR it’s not enough to really stress the defense specifically designed to clamp down on the WR.
The real question is: Who is that other threat?
Brandon Collins – 40%
One of two Barking Carnival Wunderkinds© that is almost a carbon copy of Shipley, only perhaps not as quick. Still, it’s not a great position to be in to have to rely on freshmen, no matter how good they are.
There isn’t much doubt that he’ll be good, and soon. He always seemed like that guy you don’t expect to be good, then suddenly he’s in the endzone twice and torching some poor nickelback. If he can be effective against a pass oriented defense, then we’ll be in a great place, you just never know with young players when it’ll all come together. Man up drills in practice are one thing, live action is another.
The other problem he’ll have is the same problem Shipley will have; they’re both slot receivers. Give them room and they’re unstoppable. Put a physical corner on them who can disrupt them and use the sideline, they decline because neither one is all that big or strong.
We have two slot receivers and one slot position, so someone will have to play out there. Shipley has the savvy to deal with it, most likely, so he’ll be the guy with a lot to prove.
Malcolm Williams – 30%
Same deal as above, but a much higher ceiling. If Brandon Collins is the dylithium crystal that drives this starship, then Williams is the warp drive that takes us to new places in a big hurry. Consistency is the key with players like this, and Williams hasn’t proven anything on that front. There isn’t another guy on the team as capable of splitting some safeties and taking it to the house like Jerry Rice used to do, or out-jumping a corner for a 25 yard fade. It is in our best interest to get him on the field as early and as often as possible.
He won’t be a reliable source of yardage this season. He can deliver at times, but if you are asking him to do it against OU in the span of 30 snaps you’ll likely end up disappointed. Stick him in every other drive and if he delivers, great. If not, let him grow and give him time.
Dan Buckner – 10%
He’s going to be good. Is he going to be good so soon? I don’t think so. He looked confused in the spring, and the football player hasn’t quite caught up to the talent yet. If he plays then it might even out, but of all our young guys he’s probably the longest shot of anyone with a remote chance of being the man.
There are six guys I’d put ahead of him right now, so if he plays he won’t have many chances to prove himself. How he steps up in this role will be a good indicator of someone who can come alive when we need him to, since the attitude of “OK, I need to make a play here,” is all but identical.
Vondrell McGee – 40%
Just how good is McGee? Dunno. But he is at least exactly as good as we need him to be. Teams have fallen into the habit of playing us with 7 man fronts and just letting us run ourselves into 3rd and longs because we can’t do anything about it. Jamaal Charles was a special talent, but McGee might be a better fit. He is the classic low, strong, picker that will conjure 5 yards out of thin air. He isn’t the big play threat Jamaal Charles was (not many are), but the real key to this season will be how well he can adapt to being the man and gaining consistent yardage against defenses that won’t be geared to stop him.
Greg Davis makes this especially crucial because he lacks whatever brain synapse it is that allows him pattern recognition. So even if we are running well, we are still going to throw it because that’s what he decided on Tuesday that they would do. McGee won’t have 35 chances to gain 4 yards a pop, he’ll likely have 15-20 to gain 5.
With a team full of WRs that can beat one CB but not two, the running game will be where we’ll have to force our single coverage.
Fozzy Whitaker – 150%
Wonderkind© 2. He will be a star for us on some level. I better stop talking before my chair soaks through.
Curtis Brown/John Chiles -5%
The wildcards. Brown is a beast and needs to see the field someplace. The longer he sits, the longer it’ll take for him to become relevant. Chiles is athletic but there is more to the WR position than being athletic. Just ask David Aaron.
They need to be included, just out of intellectual honesty, but neither will likely make a huge contribution. At least not at WR. If Brown actually plays on offense then I’d give him the edge.
The OL – 70%
What better way to beat seven man fronts than to block them? Vondrell McGee may be a downgrade at RB but he can perform like an upgrade if the OL improves. The reason they are only at 70% is because we still don’t know who is going to start. If it’s Hall/Tanner/Ulatoski then we’re probably going to see a lot of the same ineffectiveness as last year. Putting the best 5 guys on the field will lead to the type of running game that can free our WRs and give us the kind of run game that can keep us out of 3rd and longs, typically the death knell for a Greg Davis offense. I don’t know who will start, thus the 70%.
It’s not as sexy as having a Roy Williams or Vince Young do all the work for you, but nobody really seems to talk about the OL’s role in this year’s offense. How much better are we if Colt isn’t scrambling every other play last year? Or if Jamaal Charles doesn’t have to just run around everybody five times a game so we can score? The best front we can put out there will be the type of group that can change the game.
We’re not going to be a team with electric talent that pulls through game after game. The team will have to be a lot like Kansas to succeed, a team full of good players doing their jobs while playing excellent defense. Now I’m going to go gouge my eyeballs out because I just said Texas needs to be more like Kansas.
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Thanks for the kind words, Trips.
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J commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three 10 hours, 29 minutes ago
You know who’s bitter and angry as fuck? This guy —> ME.
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Trips Right commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three 12 hours, 10 minutes ago
Just wanted to say I feel for you guys. As a Texas fan I know how this feels even if it’s from a football perspective.
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ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition 12 hours, 20 minutes ago
Wow. Wake won’t break 50. Not surprising really — we should have beaten Wake and they are not a very good team.
DrkBgrk said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:15 am
germans call playmakers jamaica?
and i can’t wait for someone named fozzy to earn a nickname.
Scott Derry said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:34 am
As long as the 11 most talented people are on the field on both sides of the ball, we’ll be competitive with anyone. That’s what Mack always told me.
Nordberg said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:39 am
Fozzy Bear.
What percentage does DeSean Hales get? And will be look at D.J. Monroe on offense at all?
Nordberg said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:41 am
“be” = “we”. Sorry.
Gary Pinkel said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:54 am
Are you misspelling Wunderkind on purpose? Is that an inside joke on teh intertubes?
HenryJames said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 7:57 am
You know who else spelled Wunderkind correctly?
dedfischer said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 8:29 am
It’s a rare time in college football when Texas Tech’s go-to receiver is a guy named Michael from Oak Cliff, while UT’s is a guy named Jordan from Burnet. Sorry, growing up, I just thought I would never see that.
ChrisApplewhite said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 9:12 am
All incoming freshmen get 0% until proven otherwise.
jc25 said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 10:09 am
Andre Jones +/- 340 hours of community service.
Minnesotahorn said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 10:18 am
“All incoming freshmen get 0% until proven otherwise.”
Unless your initials are Dan Buckner.
Shumbeckler said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 12:21 pm
“Hall/Tanner/Ulatoski then we’re probably going to see a lot of the same ineffectiveness as last year”
I’m sorry but Hall is without question the best center we have. I would like to see, L to R, Allen, Huey, Hall, Dockery, and Hix. I am OK with Ulatoski being in the rotation at RT. The key to the line this year comes down to one guy – Allen. He must show improvement and stay healthy. If he can’t do those things, Hall gets moved around again and things cascade downward from there.
I think you will see a lot of 2 TE again, to take advantage of McGee’s tough running style and to initially hide Allen. Irby and Ullman – I like that combo as blockers. Irby needs to show himself as a receiving threat though for it to work the best.
To make up for the loss of playmakers on offense we must see a vast improvement in special teams. Mack will probably give punts to Quan again, so he just has to do better on those. I want to see him put Malcolm Williams or Kirkendoll or even Hales back there with Quan on kicks. You can’t find out who your other playmakers are if you only ever go with one guy back there.
Woody Bombay said:
July 3rd, 2008 at 8:35 pm
You have just jinxed Jordan Shipley to a season-ending leg injury in the second quarter of the UTEP game. Thanks a barking shitload.
Ransom Stoddard said:
July 4th, 2008 at 6:48 am
The frightening thing about having a team with no proven and reliable playmakers is the importance that gets placed on smart gameplanning and strategy. Here, our hopes are pinned on Greg Davis. Greg Davis.
Are you familiar with Greg Davis?
ChrisApplewhite said:
July 4th, 2008 at 7:44 pm
I try not to think about that.
uthookem said:
July 5th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Well, to me, it still looks like we have a 100% chance of losing 2-3 games.
Hook ‘em!
Spawn of Cthulhu said:
July 6th, 2008 at 1:46 pm
Should we start referring to him as Jordy Shipley?
Kafka said:
July 6th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
An offense needs guys who command a double team from the defense. I don’t see Shipley or Quan being double teamed too much by good defenses (OU, for example). It would be so great if Shipley has a great year next year but I am a bit skeptical at this point. Shipley needs to improve dramatically on 50-50 balls because Colt throws so many passes that are up for grabs. Shipley needs to get a little more aggressive in the air.
Quan is great (one of my favorite players and clearly superior to Shipley last season) but he is not that fast anymore and he isn’t very tall. As a number 3 receiver, he is great.
I am hoping that Malcom Williams breaks out next year. He is 6′3″, 225, and ran a 4.43 in high school. Malcom could be the kind of guy who can command a double team because of size, speed, and aggressiveness. He is also big enough to block an LB.
My dark horse is Cody Johnson. The guy ran a 4.4 40 in high school at 225 pounds. If the horns are running a two TE set (and one of the TEs is Ullman), they might consider going with one TE and a FB (Cody Johnson) instead of two TEs.
Chiles is going to be a playmaker in 2009. GD will finally figure out how to use both Colt and Chiles at the same time. My preference would be to put Chiles in the slot and run a lot of reverses with him (i.e. Colt rolls out in one direction and has the option to pitch to chiles going the opposite direction). This kind of misdirection is a stable of Urban Meyer’s D. Colt throws well on the run and it can only help to have Chiles freezing the D. When Colt does pitch the ball to Chiles, Chiles can either run or throw.
Colt should improve tremendously from last season just by reducing the number of picks and fumbles. I am certain that Muschamp is going to demand that GD’s offense protect the ball. In 2009, Colt should really confront his limitations and play within his abilities (the Muschamp mantra). I hope to see many more quick developing, short passes to explosive backs in the open field (i.e. Colt gets the ball and immediately gets rid of the ball).
Special teams are going to make more big plays next year because Uane (no D) Akina is going to resume focusing on special teams (where he has done a great job in the past).
The D, under Muschamp’s leadership, is going to make a lot of big plays. Who will draw double teams on the D?
uthookem said:
July 6th, 2008 at 7:41 pm
He kafka, was that a Freudian slip with all of the 2009 references, or are you really already looking to next year?
Kafka said:
July 6th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
Yep, that was a slip. I have not given up on 2008 yet, in fact I am getting pretty hopeful. I think Muschamp and Major are really going to shake this staff up (in a good way).
The horns lost some super talented guys on O (Charles, Finley, Sweed and Hills) but really Sweed was hurt pretty much all year, Finley was distracted by his personal problems and played nowhere near his potential. Charles will be hard to replace because he was brilliant in the last half of the season. Despite the loss of Hills, the O line should still be better in 2008 than 2007.
ChrisApplewhite said:
July 6th, 2008 at 8:53 pm
Finley was bad as often as he was good last season. It’s easy to only see potential, I know I do it a lot, but we are not going to miss 2007 Finley at all.
We will miss what we never had.
dedfischer said:
July 7th, 2008 at 3:40 am
We go about 3-deep before we get to our first white guy.
Nordberg said:
July 7th, 2008 at 5:32 am
If Chris O is still returning kicks, instead of Curtis Brown, or Beasley, or Hales, or D.J. Monroe, or Fozzy, then someone’s getting punched in the throat.
Ransom Stoddard said:
July 7th, 2008 at 7:32 am
I predict we will find the slowest guy on the team who has no shiftiness whatsoever to return kicks and punts, as usual