Connect with your Facebook Account

• Contact

Football Articles

8

Bash Your Bookie Bets: Week 4

Posted by Trips Right on September 19th, 2007 under Football, Uncategorized

Well, I’m 9-8-1 overall but 3-0 on double unit plays for a decent +4 units for the year. It’s been a below average run, but I’m still making money. The good news is that I really, really like this week’s card. I like it more than Chooky likes frosted tipped boy bands, but not nearly as much as HenryJames likes the volleyball scene in Top Gun. So my feelings about this week lay somewhere between a peculiar fascination and homo-erotic obsession. Anyway, lots of good games and my card reflects it as I’ve got 8 I’m playing.

Reporter
The data on the MIG is inaccurate.

*Big 12 pick of the week: Miami-2.5 vs. TAMU. 1 unit
These two teams have struggled mightily these first 3 weeks. Miami looked poor against Marshall and FIU, and was absolutely woodsheded in Norman. TAMU on the other hand was outyardaged and first-downed vs. I-aa Montana State, they were taken to the limit against a below-average Fresno squad, and gave up 200 yards rushing to ULL.

Two factors, though, make the Miami side a good bet. First, the Spot favors Miami here. Primetime national TV in Miami vs. an Aggie squad yet to play a road game or a decent team for that matter.

Second, the matchup. So in 3 games TAMU is averaging 445 through the air, right? Nope, the correct answer is TAMU has thrown for a total of 445 yards the entire year. Yikes. Keep in mind, Miami held OU to 2.6 yards a carry and won’t be facing Malcom Kelley this Thursday and you have to wonder if TAMU can move the ball. Make no mistake, Miami’s offense is among the worst in the country, but TAMU’s defense hasn’t been much better vs. substandard competition. I think Miami scores against a porous TAMU defense and locks down the Aggie running game in a double digit win 28 to 17.

Navy -12 vs. Duke
Okay, forget for a moment that Duke’s a football team that is allowing 439 yards a game to the Eric Estrada-esque offenses of UConn, Virginia, and Northwestern. Forget Navy’s averaging nearly 200 yards more a game than Duke vs. a better schedule. Forget Navy’s unconventional offense and overachieving defense. Forget Duke’s overzealous prosecutors, and the homosexual relationship between Christian Laetner and Brian Davis.

Focus on the fact that this is a bad, bad spot for Duke. They’re coming off a huge road win to break the nation’s longest losing streak. And now they get a Navy team who played Rutgers tough two weeks ago and dropped a headscratcher to Ball State because of it. Which team will be focused all week in practice? Which team will be emotional on Saturday? I’m betting Navy rolls 38 to 14.

Reporter
The faggotry that is Duke’s schedule.

Oregon State +12 @ Arizona State
I’ve been watching the Beavers closely this year and I think I’ve got them nailed. Their home win vs. Utah and road loss at Cincinatti look better and better each week. The OSU defense is allowing a stellar 28 rushing yards a game which should bode well when they face the rush heavy attack of ASU led by Ryan Torain who happens to be questionable for Saturday with a knee.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon State needs to get some production out of the QB position. The 430 yards passing Canfield put up last week is a good start even if it was against Idaho State. Throw in Sammy Straughter who made his first real contribution of the season last week and give me 200 yards passing with no picks out of Canfield, and I guarantee Oregon State plays within the number and is even a live dog here. Too many points for two evenly matched teams. 24 to 21 ASU.

Georgia +4 @ Alabama
Another amazing spot. First and foremost, Georgia has more talent. But spot-wise, Richt has had two weeks to prepare for Alabama after a home loss to SC to open conference play. Bama is off a huge , thrilling close home win over rival Arkansas.

As for Matchups, Georgia is not going to let Jan Michael Vincent throw for 350 yards like he did to Nutt’s squad. Georgia will run it well enough and throw it well enough on an Alabama squad that gave up 6 yards a carry and 6 yards a passing attempt to Arkansas. Close game that Georgia wins on a FG. 27 to 24.

Reporter
The next Major?

**Game of the Week. BYU-10 vs. Air Force. 2 units**
We’re getting great value in this number considering BYU was 7.5 point road chalk at a decent tulsa squad in a terrible spot after playing two physical games against Arizona and at Ucla. Now they are only -10 to Air Force at home in a great spot as they come in 1-2 and air force is 3-0 off a mystifying and emotional win vs TCU. AFA probably feels as euphoric as DrJ at a Murray Head Concert.

Matchup wise, BYU gets yards in bunches, doubling UCLA in total yards in LA including 400 through the air. They also put up 700 yards, 550 through the air vs. Tulsa and would have won had it not been for 4 costly turnovers. This has to be concerning for AFA’s defense considering they allowed 350 and 250 to two pedestrian passing offenses in TCU and Utah respectively.

An added bit of encouragement for BYU backers, the Cougars are allowing a stingy 80 yards a game on the ground vs. some relatively decent competition in Utah, UCLA, and Tulsa. Obviously, this is key for BYU’s D vs. a run happy AFA squad.

Add it all up and I see an angry BYU, in its conference opener, name its score vs. a poorly matched AFA squad coming off an emotional win. 44 to 10.

Other games I’m adding:

Toledo +4 vs. ISU Good spot for the Rockets as Iowa State is coming off their Super Bowl and Toledo is looking for revenge of last year’s OT loss. Similarly matched teams, so give me the home dog that can score. Here’s hoping Toledo won’t be shaving points this week. 20 to 17 Toledo.

UH -6.5 vs. Colorado State The Rams can’t run and can’t stop the run which is always a bad combination especially on the road. The Cougs are an underrated squad that has outplayed a very good Oregon team and blasted a hapless Tulane club. Briles’ offense gets it done here and outscores the Rams. 41 to 31

ND +13.5 vs. Michigan State
I know, I know, no offensive TD’s averaging a yard a carry, yada yada yada, but this is incredible value in my mind. This line is way off of what it should be on paper. Between Notre Dame not scoring and the books taking an absolute beating on games involving Notre Dame this year, this line is skewed dramatically. Notre Dame has been a 14 point dog only once in the last 5 years and that was on the road vs a talented Trojan team in 2004. Michigan State is not as good a football team as Penn state , Georgia Tech or Michigan and simply cannot be trusted to lay this kind of number on the road. Michigan State, before being bet up, was laying 17 at home to uab … now 14 on the road at notre dame ?? Might lose this bet …. but given the same information, I would make this bet every single time. 21 to 17 Michigan State.

Reporter
Win one for my bankroll.

Good luck.

Article Tags:

, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

More from this Barker


Share This

  • StumbleUpon

8 Responses

  1. CrazyJoeDavola said:

    September 20th, 2007 at 12:00 am

    Surprising (to me) stat that I picked up at Deadspin: If Michigan State wins Saturday, they’ll be the first team ever to win 6 straight at Notre Dame Stadium.

    Also, if Michigan beats PSU, it’ll be the first time Joe Paterno has lost 9 straight to a particular team.

    Neither of which has much, if anything, to do with betting lines.

  2. DrJHorn said:

    September 20th, 2007 at 3:24 am

    I respect your willingness to climb back on that beaver after being thrown, Trips. I’ll say Georgia and Notre Dame both win their games straight up. Agree that Navy will bedevil the B. Devils and roll easily.

    Unless facing a Davis-Chizik think tank, A&M performs on the road about like, well, Murray Head. Miami wins that one in a game that only Medusa could love.

  3. JackieMartling said:

    September 20th, 2007 at 4:45 am

    Bama wins, as Richt’s offense, even under Mike Bobo is about as well planned out as your picks.

  4. BRAGGonUT said:

    September 20th, 2007 at 5:46 am

    The UNDER 46 is the bet to make on tonight’s game.

  5. chitwood said:

    September 20th, 2007 at 6:40 am

    technically you are only up 3.2 units, unless you are able to bet without the vig. Yes, I am a know-it-all prick. Just ask Jackie.

  6. ComeonMINERS said:

    September 20th, 2007 at 9:37 am

    WHO WOULD YOU BET ON IN A DOGFIGHT, TRIPS …….. MAVERICK/GOOSE -285 VS AIRWOLF ?

    WINNER GETS TO LOSE TO PONCH IN THE FINALS.

    GOOD LUCK THIS WEEK. NICE TO SEE YOU ON THOSE OVERACHIEVERS AT NOTRE DAME AND TOLEDO.

  7. BRAGGonUT said:

    September 22nd, 2007 at 7:54 am

    I like Texas Tech and Okie State UNDER 73. They will score planty but not that much.

    I also actually like South Carolina +17.5 at LSU. I think the guy ends in the 24-14 range. This is not a night game at LSU.

    I like your Navy pick but that line has crept up to 14 so I am going to pass.

  8. Lucas Ratulowski said:

    March 7th, 2010 at 4:05 pm

    You post definitely was one of the finest points of my Thursday. I had been on Digg trying to find something completely not related when the title caught my interest. I sure am glad I spent the time to read your post! Feel free to check out my sports articles should you get some free time!

Leave a Reply

Follow Us

Related Articles

Hot Forum Topics

Activity

  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Top Ten Reasons Why Cal Can Beat Duke   19 minutes ago

    This would probably go a bit better if you read it in your Bobby Knight voice and it had two decades worth of goodwill built up from its gratuitous appearance on a popular late night television show. But oh well.

    1) Interior Worries. As in the Bears shouldn’t have any defensively

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Round 2 Saturday Recaps   1 hour, 16 minutes ago

    We talked about the upset of the decade in this post, but I watched some other great basketball today I’d like to comment on.

    For me, the theme of the day was well-played basketball. I’m not only talking about what Northern Iowa did, I’m talking about the other seven games being really well

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Madness Magic: Northern Iowa Upsets Kansas   1 hour, 29 minutes ago

    Just a phenomenal game.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Recapping The South   1 hour, 40 minutes ago

    Udoh was a fargging beast in that game. Very athletic player.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Sailor Ripley commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   2 hours, 4 minutes ago

    Jesus. I think I see four horseman on the horizon.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Madness Magic: Northern Iowa Upsets Kansas   2 hours, 8 minutes ago

    Today reminded me why I love this tournament so much. A good friend of mine mentioned to me that college basketball is the great equalizer of all athletic endeavors. At least of the sports we care about. He’s right.

    For instance, you can have a 40 inch vertical, be Iverson quick,

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   2 hours, 12 minutes ago

    Patrick,

    Unless you’re completely retarded, you know precisely what I meant. The closest any Big 12 team has gotten to winning the infamous Fuller Cup is the 2007 Texas squad. I can’t remember a team being that horribly undisciplined as a whole aside from the insane OU teams of the 80’s. That’s not

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Nate Heupel commented on the blog post Because We’re Dedicated To Doing Stupid Things – Tiny Gallon Reportedly Took Payout   2 hours, 12 minutes ago

    Patrick,

    Unless you’re completely retarded, you know precisely what I meant. The closest any Big 12 team has gotten to winning the infamous Fulmer Cup is the 2007 Texas squad. I can’t remember a team being that horribly undisciplined as a whole aside from the insane OU teams of the 80’s. That’s not

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Sailor Ripley wrote a new blog post: This Is Sparta!   2 hours, 24 minutes ago

    Please make yourself welcome and Adam will be by shortly to keep you up to date on all Michigan State Spartan happenings.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Nickel Rover commented on the blog post Barnes worst team   2 hours, 28 minutes ago

    I suppose anyone could be your “favorite Longhorn basketball player” but Ford did more than just about anyone…although Durant is clearly better. Ford’s supporting cast was better than Durant’s in his sophomore year. Durant’s had more talent (Augustin, James, Abrams) but Ford’s was more developed (Boddicker, Ivey, Mouton, Thomas) and had worked with him for

  • Nickel Rover commented on the blog post Bradley or Hamilton?   2 hours, 35 minutes ago

    Crazy Joe, your thoughts intrigue me and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

  • Nickel Rover commented on the blog post Bradley or Hamilton?   2 hours, 38 minutes ago

    This notion of Hamilton as being a disaster area on defense is all a bit much. He rebounds extremely well which, if it wasn’t obvious, is extremely important in this game since it secures possession of the basketball. Winning in basketball is achieved through the scoring of baskets and it’s necessary to possess the basketball

  • Ojnab Bob commented on the blog post Best Opening Round I Can Remember   2 hours, 48 minutes ago

    I posted earlier about how Collins’ effort just crippled Kansas today, but what amazed me the most was his complete inability to stay in front of his man on defense. UNI got a LOT of good looks out of penetration/pass after one of UNI’s modestly gifted athletes blew right by Sherron. The best

  • Scipio Tex wrote a new blog post: Best Opening Round I Can Remember   4 hours ago

    At least it’s shaping up that way if Sunday delivers.

    As disappointed as I was in last year’s opening weekend of March Madness, this one is exceeding all expectations. Putting aside the fact that my bracket now resembles Kabul after the Taliban rolled through in ‘96 – a map of ordered failure –

  • J commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three   4 hours, 27 minutes ago

    Thanks for the kind words, Trips.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • J commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three   4 hours, 28 minutes ago

    You know who’s bitter and angry as fuck? This guy —> ME.

    I can only hope our returning players (whoever that may be) remember this and realize they need to play motivated EVERY FUCKING GAME and put forward 40 MINUTES of effort each game.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Rumor Alert–TMG   4 hours, 59 minutes ago

    Kid seems like a fantastic collegiate player. I haven’t seen any NBA info. Is he a legit prospect?

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Raoul Duke commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three   5 hours, 6 minutes ago

    Tough day for Sherron on O and D.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • GoHornsGo90 commented on the blog post Bradley or Hamilton?   5 hours, 50 minutes ago

    To leave or stay?

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   5 hours, 51 minutes ago

    KSU moving on led by a hot shooting Pullen. BTW, White Mormons can shoot FTs. 22 for 25, I think. Imagine if we could shoot like that.

    Wake’s coming back on Kentucky. They’re within 25 right now…..

  • Trips Right commented on the blog post Bid Dance: Day Three   6 hours, 9 minutes ago

    Just wanted to say I feel for you guys. As a Texas fan I know how this feels even if it’s from a football perspective.

    I still think you’re the best basketball team in the country, and unfortunately you ran into a team that packed a Villanova circa 1985 type game today. Meaning they

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   6 hours, 18 minutes ago

    Wow. Wake won’t break 50. Not surprising really — we should have beaten Wake and they are not a very good team.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   6 hours, 24 minutes ago

    Kentucky doing their best to beat Wake by half hundred. Close call….

  • RRR wrote a new blog post: Survive and Advance   6 hours, 28 minutes ago

    We really struggled in the first half, but battled through it to get a tough win against Jacksonville.  On to Oxford!

     Forget what conference they play in, Jacksonville is a very good basketball team, and they got to Lubbock not because of a crazy bank shot at the buzzer in Phoenix, but by playing aggressive, intense defense for

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”http://tortillaretort.fantake.com/1969/12/31/” });

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   6 hours, 45 minutes ago

    The shamrock is on his left shoulder. The Griffin looking thing is on his right.

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   6 hours, 54 minutes ago

    Everytime I see a Gumbel brother I think of “Gumbel to Gumbel”

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   7 hours, 7 minutes ago

    Kentucky starting to pile on Wake. That would have been our fate…..

    KSU just killing the Mormons on the glass…

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   7 hours, 34 minutes ago

    10 point lead for the Mormons again…

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   7 hours, 49 minutes ago

    This is the first-time Frank Martin has ever met a Mormon who wasn’t on a bicycle.

  • Patrick Bateman commented on the blog post NCAA Tournament Open Thread: Weekend Edition   7 hours, 53 minutes ago

    Does that mean he gets to pick his wives first???