Connect with your Facebook Account

• Contact

Football Articles

6

Exploiting Fantasy Football Innumeracy: How To Pants People in Jorts

Posted by Scipio Tex on August 8th, 2007 under Football

height=The NFL owes a tremendous debt to the numerous fat dudes in starter jerseys and jorts who follow fantasy football with the rigor and passion with which Ohio St fans burn couches – not coincidentally, also fat dudes clad in starter jerseys and jorts.

Correlation and causation have a way of blending there.

It’s a testament to the whole enterprise that Vick Rockz Beeyotch can sit riveted watching a putrid Browns Raiders game swaddled in adult diapers so he doesn’t have to take bathroom breaks knowing that a Dennis Northcutt 4 yard reception is all that stands between him and sweet victory over I Dig Zeta Jones Tits in his Da Home Depot Playas pay league.

Where passion, mindless devotion, jorts, and mathematical helplessness coalesce, there is opportunity to make money. If you don’t think so, you’re completely unaware of Oprah & Friends, Applebees, or Las Vegas.

School is in session, playaz.

First, my assumptions.

1. This is a standard Yahoo league auto-setting for a 12 team head-to-head league.
2. Passing 1 point per 50 yards, 4 points per TD, -1 points per INT.
3. Rushing/Receiving 1 point per 10 yards, 6 points per TD, fumbles -1 point.
4. One flex position, mandatory TE.
5. Defenses score points on sacks, turnovers and TDs/safeties and are penalized on a sliding scale for giving up points.

You get the idea…this is standard stuff. If you’re in some kind of exotic scoring league where you get 53 megabonus points for any receiving TD caught by a Caucasian, or if you can transfer hit points from your favorite Dungeons & Dragons character, I can’t help you.

Here’s the thing – the only thing: the scoring system is The Thing. 91.7% of fantasy players don’t pay any attention to the scoring system, even if they give it lip service. So here’s the Second Thing which is a subset of the The Only Thing: your personal opinion as to the value of a player is irrelevant. The relative value of a player is not really in debate if you can project with some realism and more accuracy than Ricky Williams’ first agent. A player’s value is right there for you in a pretty number.

Value is what formula say.

Here are the areas of opportunity:

QB. This year, after the “premier” RBs go, clowndicks will make a hysterical run on brand name QBs: Peyton Manning, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Marc Bulger, Donovan McNabb – all far too early. Most of these players are going in the top 25-30 of every draft out there (Palmer and Manning often in the 1st). Consider The Thing: simple math tells us that rushing yards & TDs are rewarded hugely, passing volume is more important than passing efficiency, and a 4:-1 TD to INT ratio demonstrates that a 2TD/3INT QB has more value than the 1TD/0 INT QB. Did the names Vince Young, Tony Romo, Jon Kitna, Matt Leinart just pop into your head? Good. 3 of the 4 have elite receiving corps and VY is the game’s best running QB. Yet all are available in rounds 6-8. The gap between them and the players drafted far ahead of them is decievingly small, and to the casual fan, completely counterintuitive.

Stick with me on this…

Drew Brees – currently a 2nd round selection in almost all leagues had 4045 yards, 26 TDs, 11 INTs with 50 yards rushing and no TDs in 2006. Nice job Drew. You’re a good QB. That’s worth 259 points.

In 2007, I’ll project Vince Young for a weaktit 2875 passing yards, 18 TDs, 20 INTS. Wow. Dogshit. He’ll rush for 45 yards per game (inconsequential, right?) and he’ll continue to be a good red zone running threat. We’ll call it 720 rushing yards with 7 TDs. Congratulations Vince – you’re worth 280 points. Now go get LenDale White away from that ice cream truck.

You just got a “better” player in the 6th or 7th round than the guy taken in the 2nd or early 3rd. If you run similar models with 2007 Jon Kitna vs. 2007 Carson Palmer, you’ll find Palmer inevitably on top – just not by the margins you anticipate.

Peer pressure plays a key role in innumeracy: no one laughs uproariously at a guy who takes Carson Palmer with the a late first round pick, though I can pretty definitely prove to you that this person is a slapmonkey. However, take Vince Young in the 3rd round and you’ll be mocked: Too Early. No Supporting Cast. Stupid.

BTW, don’t take Vince in the 3rd. He’ll be there later.

WR. In 2006, the gap between a Lee Evans (1290 yds, 8 TDs) and Chad Johnson (1370 yds, 7 TDs) is precisely none. Yet Ocho Cinco will go in Round Dos or Tres and Evans will go 20-30 players later. Maybe Evans should race Smarty Jones. Like QB, this is a position where value gaps are consistently overestimated. You can draft 2 high quality RBs in your first two rounds and still come back to pick up two of Roy Williams, Lee Evans, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Javon Walker. Take Chad Johnson and a QB early, and you’re sporting Brian Piccolo and Merrill Hoge in your backfield. Good luck with that.

RB. The top runners are in short supply as job sharing is now the norm for working mothers and NFL running backs. This year RBs should take up your first two picks. I’d even consider your first three. As demonstrated, quality QBs and WRs will be found later.

TE. If he’s not named Antonio Gates, he may as well be named Phineas J. LemurDick. Yet inevitably, the minute Gates goes, the “TE run” begins. Hold your water.

Apples and Oranges. You don’t compare how many points Peyton Manning will score vs how many points Steven Jackson will score and then draft accordingly. A significant number of jort jockeys do this. What you should compare is the difference between your best guess of estimated production for each player vs. a same position player in a later round. In other words, compare the difference between a 1st round Manning with a 6th round Tony Romo/Jon Kitna. Then compare a 1st round Steven Jackson to a 6th round Julius Jones. As the English say,”Mind the gap, please.”

Beta. Borrowed from the financial world, beta is a measure of volatility relative to a market. If the “market” represents a mean of individual player performance, then we’d like a player that’s consistent. Think of the Greg Davis offense, pre & post Vince. 625 yards vs North Texas, 225 vs OU. The average is 425 – yea. We rock. Except we’re now 1-1. Boo. We suck. 500 vs North Texas, 350 vs. OU means the same average but now we’re probably 2-0. Reggie Bush will do nothing for three games and then explode for 3 TDs and several long runs. This year, Travis Henry will probably have low volatility. 9 out of 10 will draft Bush over Henry. If production is equivalent, I’ll take the more predictable guy playing in the head-to-head league.

It’s worth noting that WRs also have a higher volatility than RBs.

Consider these things, make me proud, and go forth and pants the jorts.

Article Tags:

More from this Barker


Share This

  • StumbleUpon

6 Responses

  1. HenryJames said:

    August 8th, 2007 at 2:22 pm

    Where’d you get the picture of Drew?

  2. Facebook User said:

    August 8th, 2007 at 4:12 pm

    I wish I had a glorious head of hair like that. And those Birkenstocks.

  3. Milo Milodragavitch said:

    August 8th, 2007 at 4:45 pm

    What do Brian Piccolo and Merrill Hoge have in common?

    They’re both dead to me.

  4. BRAGGonUT said:

    August 15th, 2007 at 1:11 pm

    The ideas that Scipio Tex knows shit about any fantasy games other than D&D and that he is wearing jorts today strike me as a fanciful as Mike Leach’s summer quest for Dead Man’s Chest.

  5. SizzleChest said:

    August 15th, 2007 at 6:59 pm

    Just to be crystal clear – I don’t wear jorts, but my Starter mumu wasn’t properly mothballed in February, so with the all the holes chewed in it, the “10″ looks like a Cyrillic symbol meaning colloquially “I chug mule dick”. Therefore, you will not see me wearing it whilst waddling the livestock-strewn aves of Blagovregrad.

  6. Scipio Tex said:

    August 15th, 2007 at 7:51 pm

    Be brave, Hot Sizzle. We know you don’t chug mule dick. Specifically.

    It’s good to have you here, man. Make yourself comfortable.

Leave a Reply

Follow Us

Related Articles

Hot Forum Topics

Activity

  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   1 hour, 1 minute ago

    Louisville has a great chance if Jerry Smith is healthy.

  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Final Four Prediction   1 hour, 2 minutes ago

    Good team that took number 1 seeded Louisville to the wire in last year’s tournament. Start 3 seniors and two juniors, very athletic. Solid pass first point guard. Their leading scorer was player of the year in the conference.

    Good club that plays multiple defenses.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • ghostofagroundgame commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   1 hour, 27 minutes ago

    I just took Baylor going to the Elite 8. It’s a crazy mixed up world we live in.

    Is it just me, or does it pain anyone else to not be able to determine who is going to beat Duke early? It’s bound to happen, but who will it be?

  • Art Vandelay commented on the blog post Final Four Prediction   1 hour, 29 minutes ago

    By “we” I meant the Horns. Kevin, why should I take Siena over A&M?

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   1 hour, 43 minutes ago

    colorado ag, Utah State is as athletic as Nebraska. You’ll be fine as long as they don’t go 16 for 31 from three.

    Siena, on the other hand, is going to beat you like you stole something. Maybe not, but the Saints should win.

  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   1 hour, 47 minutes ago

    Great article Scipio. Also, thanks for the dime.

    Looking at the Tournament futures market, Vegas is telling us what they think about Onuaku’s health. The Orangemen have the easiest region and road to the fianl four, yet they’re +700 to win it all, while UK and Kansas, teams with much tougher roads, are +250

  • Art Vandelay commented on the blog post Final Four Prediction   1 hour, 52 minutes ago

    My brackets are pretty much locked down except the South. Can’t get myself to take Baylor, and Duke doesn’t feel right. Nobody seems to be high on Nova. It’s all about the Big East and Big 12 this year.

    It’s a crying shame we suck so bad. We are in a good

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • James commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   2 hours, 2 minutes ago

    Scip, like a peaceful Indian in the 1800’s, I never trust a Mormon that can shoot. Utah State has me worried.

    If we escape the first weekend, things get very interesting with a potential Sweet 16 match-up with Duke. Ugly up the game and guard like hell on the perimeter in front of a

  • Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   2 hours, 32 minutes ago

    CJD -

    Possibly. However, I’m telling you – the beauty of these intergame lines is that when you see that all-too-familiar big early game lead that you know will evaporate down the stretch as soon as the team starts regressing to their 3 point shooting mean, there’s some money to be made.

  • Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   2 hours, 34 minutes ago

    uthookem-

    I’d say you have your priorities straight.

    colorado -

    Anytime. How far do you think the Aggies go? A lot of people think Utah State is the most dangerous pure shooting team in the tournament.

  • uthookem commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   2 hours, 45 minutes ago

    Last year in Vegas, Friday morning, stumble to the line at 8:30 to make my bets, put $20 on a four-team parlay on the four 9:00 am games, nailed it! Three of the four games’ spread was determined in the final 0:30. Walked away with $220.

    Yeah, so what if that is the only

  • James commented on the blog post Sending Aggies to the NFL   2 hours, 46 minutes ago

    Jordan, all just wild, premature conjecture. I’d hedge that only a third of that 2013 list ever makes an NFL roster. It is picking which third that is the tough part.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • James commented on the blog post Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   2 hours, 48 minutes ago

    Very interesting piece. These games can’t start soon enough. Thanks, Scip.

  • Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Final Four Prediction   2 hours, 58 minutes ago

    I have:

    Syracuse
    Kansas
    West Virginia
    Baylor

    These will all likely change 3-4 times before tomorrow morning.

    I don’t have as high an opinion of Ohio State as you do. Evan Turner is fantastic, but I don’t like their odds of taking down Georgetown and KU back-to-back.

    Baylor scares me. They have no idea what

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: Final Four Prediction   3 hours, 2 minutes ago

    Arinze Onuaku’s injury has forced me to turn this year’s bracket prediction into a “Multiple Endings” story. Don’t get me wrong, we’re not hyper-geeks playing Dungeons and Dragons here. We may be wasting billions of dollars in worker productivity, but we’re not killing Orcs with plus 10 vorpal swords of magic.

    So, in

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Kevin Berger wrote a new blog post: The Definitive Bracket: 63 Guaranteed Winners!   3 hours, 8 minutes ago

    But only if you call now! I’ve gone 85 percent against the numba for the last two decades!! So picking straight up winners is, bada-boom bada-bing, easy! Only Sammy “the nose” Pistachio and Billy “buttercups” Birmingham can approach this many winnaz! It’s ridiculoso, hermoso!!

    Call now and we’ll throw in an opening round N-I-T super-dupa live dog

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Scipio Tex commented on the blog post Making it Official: Tighter Officiating’s Effect on the Tournament   3 hours, 8 minutes ago

    Awesome write up.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Scipio Tex wrote a new blog post: Bracket Breakdown & Gambling Tips   3 hours, 15 minutes ago

    So I’m listening to Bill Simmons’ podcast and he has on Chad Millman, Vegas Insider. Basically, Chad’s job is to interact with the guys who set the line, professional gamblers, sharps, and wise guys. He had some interesting comments about the tournament:

    By the end of the year, markets are fairly efficient as

  • Bob Jones commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject   4 hours, 6 minutes ago

    As a Baylor fan I loathe math: it’s either inexorably against us or when favorable, completely inapplicable.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Kevin Berger commented on the blog post Making it Official: Tighter Officiating’s Effect on the Tournament   4 hours, 48 minutes ago

    Should have that up soon, ts.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Nate Heupel wrote a new blog post: Oklahoma Sooners – Recruiting So Far   4 hours, 49 minutes ago

    I was reading a thread on OUInsider whining about how a beat writer for a UT website seemed to favoring UT recruits. Get the hell out of here with that nonsense. Next, you’re going to tell me that Oklahoma sports media coverage is slanted towards OU.

    While Ketchum’s rankings seemed to be

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • J Rog commented on the blog post March Mad(nba)ess!   4 hours, 55 minutes ago

    EVERYTHING would be different. Great post!

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • James commented on the blog post Two Loops & A Hooey – Herm Edwards Edition   4 hours, 56 minutes ago

    ha, nice Tim burn.

    I was wondering where you went Ded. I got sick of looking at the same article everyday for 2 weeks. I’ve been up to Taos a few times this season, but it’s not that far from ABQ. I am absolutely convinced that everyone in Texas has been to Angel

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Brownbear commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject   5 hours, 22 minutes ago

    Atleast I was wearing flannel when I wrote it.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • admin commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject   5 hours, 33 minutes ago

    Same source or just similar facts: http://fantake.com/forums/topic.php?id=876#post-5197

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • admin commented on the blog post Bracket Analysis: The Beasts of the East   5 hours, 35 minutes ago

    I think I’m riding the Huggy bear to the Final Four.

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • ursa major commented on the blog post Math… Everyone’s favorite subject   5 hours, 47 minutes ago

    “in the history of baylor basketball this has never been in discussion”

    except for that pesky final four appearance we made…

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });

  • Sancho commented on the blog post All Signs Point to March Madness Expanding to 96 Teams   5 hours, 51 minutes ago

    I just had diarrhea in my pants thinking about how many horrible teams would allowed to play

  • Sancho commented on the blog post 2010 Football Schedule Released   5 hours, 54 minutes ago

    8-4 would be pretty good, 9-3 would be stellar, in fact quite amazing. I still say we are two years away from having an impact year in college football, though.

    On another note, the game against tech is gonna be on ESPN. Time for SMU to step it up on the national stage again.

  • Luke commented on the blog post Want to plant my feet on Rampart Street…   6 hours, 2 minutes ago

    I won’t lie, the newly fashionable take as the Bears as a Final Four team sorta scares me. I think we do better as an underdog. maybe that’s jsut because I am so used to us being an underdog. Either way, I am f’in fired up . All of s sudden,

    SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: ””, url: ”” });